Private GOP Poll Reveals Trump’s Immigration Support Crumbling

Summary

Bulwark Takes — “Private GOP Poll Reveals Trump’s Immigration Support Crumbling”

Date: January 16, 2026
Host: Sam Stein (Bulwark Managing Editor)
Guest: Mark Caputo (Axios, former Bulwark)
Additional voice: Unnamed clip of Kelly (MAGA-sphere media)
Main theme:
An exclusive look at private GOP polling and public reaction showing how Donald Trump’s political advantage on immigration is eroding, fueled by disturbing viral footage of ICE raids, surging media scrutiny, and bipartisan unease.

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Episode Overview

The episode dissects the findings of a private internal GOP poll obtained by Mark Caputo, revealing that Trump’s previously strong position on immigration — particularly mass deportations — is now significantly underwater among key voter groups. The discussion traces the real-time political impact of viral social media footage of ICE raids, the Trump campaign’s internal anxieties and defiance, the MAGA-sphere’s response, and the challenges facing the White House in recalibrating amid mounting criticism.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Poll: A Crumbling Stronghold

• Private poll findings:
  • 60% of independents and 58% of undecided voters say Trump is too focused on deporting illegal immigrants.
  • 33% think Trump is targeting law-abiding individuals, not criminals.
  • These numbers are “bad” and are causing alarm within Trump’s camp.
  • Echoes public polling: AP/NORC poll: 38% approve of Trump’s immigration stance, 61% disapprove.
  • This support is significantly weaker than Trump’s overall approval rating, a rare development for an issue he's previously owned.
  • (01:32) “Those are bad numbers.” — Sam Stein

Viral Video’s Influence and Public Perception

• Visuals driving opinion:
  • Mark Caputo and Sam Stein agree that vivid, disturbing footage of ICE raids — “masked men smashing windows,” “people being dragged out of cars” — is defining public perception far more than policy arguments.
  • Caputo notes Trump as a “visual guy” who knows how optics drive his brand:
    • (04:19) “…he wants mass deportations. What he doesn't want is what people are seeing. He doesn't like the way it looks. Looks bad.” — Caputo quoting Trump advisor
  • The term “Gestapo,” invoked even by Joe Rogan, is entering the popular lexicon.
  • Social media is amplifying negative perceptions, making it impossible for the White House to control the narrative.

Trump Team’s Internal Response: No Panic, But No Retreat

• Trump’s posture:
  • Publicly, the administration is in full-offense mode:
    • Vice President J.D. Vance “sets the edge” at a press conference, blaming the victim, attacking the media, refusing to apologize.
  • The “Pirates of the Caribbean” metaphor: The Trump team’s approach is “attack to run away”—building momentum with aggression while actually coping with vulnerability.
  • A deep refusal to look weak, despite private doubts, is driving escalation, not moderation.
    • (06:53) “They cannot afford in their minds to look defensive.” — Mark Caputo
  • Some believe this is the “climax” of the offensive and expect intensity to “come down toward the end.”

No Clear Off-Ramp

• Options for recalibration:
  • Sam suggests a possible pivot (“we’ve made the streets safer, we’re done”), but Caputo is skeptical.
  • The news cycle’s volatility may offer an eventual “off-ramp,” but so far, the posture is aggression and blaming local authorities (sanctuary cities) for non-cooperation.
  • Administration anger is also directed at Democratic state and local officials for not aiding ICE.

Notable Clip: MAGA Spheres’ Own Anxiety

• Kelly’s assessment (08:38):
  • Even trusted voices in the MAGA media are openly anxious, both about polling and about the risk of escalation if Trump invokes the Insurrection Act.
    • (08:38) “We're starting to get political data in on it, and it's not great. Not great.” — Kelly
  • Sam highlights this as a bellwether—even Trump supporters are uneasy.

The ICE vs. Cops Distinction

• ICE’s poor image:
  • Viral videos of aggressive or unfit ICE officers are especially damaging. It’s not traditional “cop vs. protester” polling, where police typically poll stronger.
  • GOP pollster: when voters are asked if they support ICE agents or demonstrators more, ICE “only edged out the demonstrators by a couple percentage points”—a shocking result for law enforcement polling.
    • (11:43) “Normally… cops over perform, and here you're not seeing it.” — Caputo

Fractures on the Right

• Trump’s dilemma:
  • Far-right voices (e.g., Nick Fuentes) say Trump isn’t going far enough, while most voters believe he’s too aggressive. Trump is “buffeted” from both sides.
    • (12:20) “So he's getting buffeted by those two sort of polar forces.” — Caputo

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the numbers:
  • (01:32) “Those are bad numbers.” — Sam Stein
• On Trump’s core political concern:
  • (04:19) “He wants mass deportations. What he doesn't want is what people are seeing. He doesn't like the way it looks. Looks bad.” — Caputo quoting top Trump advisor
• On strategy:
  • (06:53) “They cannot afford in their minds to look defensive.” — Caputo
• On right-wing anxiety:
  • (08:38) “We're starting to get political data in on it, and it's not great. Not great…” — Kelly
• On ICE’s poor polling:
  • (11:43) “ICE agents only edged out the demonstrators by like a couple percentage points. And normally when you look at polling about like cops versus protesters, cops over perform, and here you're not seeing it.” — Caputo
• Underlying tension:
  • (12:01) “Him at 38 on immigration is insane to me… People approve of his job more than they approve of his handling of immigration. I can't recall when that's happened…” — Stein

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:32] – Private polling results revealed (independents, undecideds, law-abiding deportations)
• [04:19] – Trump advisor’s quote on optics vs. policy
• [06:53] – Trump world’s refusal to look weak; offensive posture
• [08:38] – MAGA media (Kelly) expresses polling anxiety
• [11:43] – Pollster: ICE agents barely outpoll demonstrators
• [12:01] – Trump underwater on immigration, a historically strong issue

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Tone & Flow

This is a brisk but in-depth exchange with wry humor, insider political analysis, and unsparing candor. Mark Caputo brings a mix of sharp reporting and tongue-in-cheek metaphors (“Pirates of the Caribbean”), while Sam Stein keeps the focus on the numbers and their unprecedented implications for Trump.

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a rare look inside the GOP’s own doubts about the political costs of Trump’s hardline immigration policies, showing how bad optics, viral social media, and a new polling reality are pressing the White House into a defensive, combative mode. The hosts underscore how rapidly public sentiment can shift in the era of social media and hint at potential fractures or future recalibrations ahead of 2026’s electoral cycle.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

All right. Hey, everybody, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bulwark. And if you are staring at a familiar face, you're not. You're not wrong. Don't do a double take. We are pleased to be joined by Mark Caputo, our old pal, coming back, looking fresh, sporting the U stuff. Look at that.

[C]

I'm loving it. Yeah, yeah. You know, they always said that Miami was the Yukon of Coral Gables. So, you know, for what it's.

[B]

Yes, I've heard that before. Mark, we miss you tremendously. You're now off in Axios. We. We haven't had you on enough, usually because the videos tank when you're on, but hopefully this one will do better. We're here to talk about your piece in Axios today, which has been something that I've been waiting to see. But you, you obviously have way more sources and insight into what's going on in Trump world. The piece, Trump's immigration erosion worries his team. And you got your hand on some private polling data that I think largely reflects the public polling data, but it's more important because it's private. So this is the stuff that they're actually paying attention to. It's probably the stuff that's going to gear their decision making. I'll just read the the top line and then you tell me what the hell is going on inside the administration. According to internal GOP polling that alarmed some Trump insiders, it was completed at the end of December, days before ICE agents fatally shot Renee Good in Minneapolis. So this is already. Prior to that, 60% of independent voters and 58% of undecided voters said Trump was too focused on deporting illegal immigrants. 33% said Trump was primarily deporting law abiding people as opposed to criminals. Those are bad numbers.

[C]

What is the move?

[B]

What is, you know, yeah, what, what, so what's, what's going on internally here?

[C]

Immigration used to be Donald Trump's strong suit there, there still is support for mass deporting criminal aliens. The problem is what used to be a strong suit no longer is you. When you use an Axios term, when you zoom out, you look at some of the other public polling like the Associated Press had NORC do. I think 38% approve of Donald Trump on immigration and 61% disapprove. And those numbers eventually bleed into the mind of Trump's advisers both inside and outside of the White House. And, you know, we didn't want to oversell this as if there's like a full blown panic in the White House or as if there's these huge doubts. I should have probably drawn up the story to read the quote from one of the advisors sort of talking about Trump's mindset. But, you know, Trump still supports mass deportations, still supports aggressive law enforcement, but they said it's not like this. Maybe to recast this or put it more succinctly, a lot of this is driven by just the raw politics of X's and O's, the polling and the polling, how it reflects polling, what people are seeing on video and what people are seeing on video stripped away of, of, you know, I'm not saying they did, I'm not saying they didn't. Whether people antagonized the police or not, whether they were, you know, being criminal aliens or better said, criminal protesters or not, I should say the reality is like the videos of people being dragged out of cars, masked men smashing windows, it's, it's earned the term the Gestapo from none, none other than Joe Rogan. Like that makes a difference, right?

[B]

So the quote you were referencing in your own piece, which I'm going to pull up for you, is, is from a chop Trump. You say top Trump advisor said this quote, I wouldn't say he's concerned about the policy. He wants deportations. He wants mass deportations. What he doesn't want is what people are seeing. He doesn't like the way it looks. Looks bad. So he's expressed some discomfort with that. I totally agree with your synopsis here, which is, and I think it's almost understated, how much video, viral video, has really moved the debate here. People are consuming this through news channels. I mean, they talking about it on news channels. It's a obviously topic of conversation, but really this is just snippets of video being consumed in social media feeds. And it's endless, and it's often disturbing or bad or dystopian, whatever you want to call it. And Trump's a visual guy. He knows this stuff. Like, I'm sure he understands this doesn't look particularly good. And yet they're not. I see no sign whatsoever that they want to recalibrate in the let's tone it down direction. If anything, there it looks like they're ramping up.

[C]

Well, you have to understand what you do. The psychology of Trump world. The Trump White House right after the shooting of Renee Good, and there was just this kind of crush of negative media attention before much was known about her. J.D. vance, the Vice President, calls a meeting essentially at the White House with, in the press briefing room, takes the podium, stands behind the lectern, and he, in sort of sports term, he sets the edge. He's like, she shouldn't have been there. She basically broke the law. The media should be ashamed of itself. And that is the Trump posture of. When you talk to Republicans leading up to that, they're like, oh, shit, like, what do we do? This, like, doesn't look good. And Vance came up there and it's just like, no apologies. We didn't do anything wrong. She did. The media should be ashamed of itself. And that is sort of the posture of we are not going to play defense, we're going to play offense, and then we're going to surge, which they did. However, if you understand how Trump world sort of thinks. I almost want to use a Pirates of the Caribbean metaphor. There's the scene in the movie where he talks about, like, you know, we're going to attack to run away. You know, this surge they essentially now have to do. They're committed to the effort. They can't look weak. They can't look like they're having doubts or, or second thoughts. But it's, it's safe to say, and this is a guess on my part, I probably shouldn't do that, that this is sort of the, the climax of it. And we're going to see this kind of come down toward the end. So they, they cannot afford in their minds to look defensive.

[B]

Yeah, I've been wondering about that. What, what could be the way, you know the cliche, what's the off ramp? Right. But like, what is the actual off ramp here? I mean, you can, in theory, you could just say, hey, we've done our, we've done our work. Like, we've arrested X number of people.

[C]

And they're doing that.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And we can. And the streets, you know. Yeah. Some bad stuff happened. Bad stuff. Someone was killed. But, like, you know, we got criminals off the streets and we're good now. You could in theory say that.

[C]

Right.

[B]

But it doesn't look triumphant. Right.

[C]

Yeah, but remember, it does.

[B]

I don't know.

[C]

I'm not saying whether it looks triumphant or not. I'm not sure that would be as much their frame as, you know, the news cycle changes so much. Like, you know, what about the Epstein files? Right. What about Venezuela? What about Russia? What about Iran? You know what I mean? And so these things, the economy, healthcare. So, you know, their thing is, is that they just don't want to look like they can't afford to look weak in this situation. And there's also, just to be very clear, like, deep frustration, anger in the White House and in Trump circles because they're saying these are sanctuary cities. They, the local police should be helping us and for the federal immigration officers enforce immigration laws. They're not. And then they're telling people to go out and protest, albeit peacefully, which the Trump people don't like to emphasize, that Governor Waltz says. But nevertheless, you have, in their view, a state government that is recalcitrant in enforcing federal law, encouraging people to protest. And then this stuff happens. And they're like, well, you know, this stuff happens. That's their view. And that that also informs their sort of frustration and their desire to be very aggressive about it.

[B]

Yeah. Now, you referenced Rogan. I thought that was really telling. I. Rogan's kind of gone there a bit on immigration before. I thought the other big. Tell me, Kelly, this morning, I'm going to play, we're going to play it now.

[D]

We're starting to get political data in on it, and it's not great. Not great. So Trump's got an interesting question to ask himself because today he's saying, if you don't start behaving in Minneapolis and stop impeding law enforcement, I'm going to declare that it's time to use the Insurrection, Insurrection act and send in federal, like, National Guards to protect these ICE agents. And you know, things are good. Shit's gonna start to get even more real.

[B]

All right, so there you go. I mean like she's, she's being, you know, anxious. She's openly anxious about how this is playing politically and openly anxious, I think about the possibility that it escalates because he invokes the Insurrection Act. You know, that, that to me is a bellwether. Right. Rogan Kelly. Like people who are in the sort of MAGA sphere or conservative universe saying we don't necessarily think things are going particularly well.

[C]

Right. And that's because they're not. It's just, it's difficult to look at all these videos. It's difficult to avoid even being exposed to videos if you're on social media or watching the news or interested in the news to just, you know, again, windows smashing. Guys of the mass. The, the, the, the Target grocery store cart wrangler.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

Like, and the fact is, is like everyone at one point or another has been pulled over by a good cop. Or at least I have an atrocious driving record. I'll admit it. Everyone has been pulled over by a bad cop. And the attitude that we're seeing in these videos and it's self selecting obviously is guys who fall on the bad cop end of the spectrum, the badge heavy cops, the little mini authoritarians, you know, little il duce with, with a guy.

[B]

Can I ask you a question about this? I don't know if you have any insight into this, but is Trump upset that a lot of these ICE officers look a little bit overweight? And that's a great, don't, don't fit the bill. Don't you think that's something that would bother him?

[C]

Yeah, that I, that's, that's a good question. That is a Sam sign story. I would have been assigned as a reporter.

[B]

Yeah, I absolutely would have. Just doesn't like the look of these guys.

[C]

Yeah, yeah.

[B]

And again, Trump watches a video of them falling on ice. He's like, what the fuck?

[C]

Exactly. Kids, you know now. So like I, I do. I haven't heard that. And as I said, like, and like Trent, for them it's just this, this catch 22. Because Trump likes strong law enforcement. Right. He likes aggressive tactics. But he's, he's aware enough to know and the polling now is pretty unanimous that this is just not great. Like even a conservative pollster I talked to independent of the story, which we didn't quote, had said that in his survey work, he had found that. And again, there's a Republican Pollster that when asked, who do you support more ICE agents or the demonstrators or the protesters? ICE agents only edged out the demonstrators by like a couple percentage points. And normally when you look at polling about like cops versus protesters, cops over perform, and here you're not seeing it.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And I wonder how much it's because, yeah, Ice vs. Cops is an interesting and important distinction here, but it is kind of crazy to watch this signature issue because, I mean, you, you mentioned it, but the AP NRC poll, I don't know if you're supposed to pronounce it. NORC.

[C]

Yeah, yeah.

[B]

I mean, like, him at 38 on immigration is insane to me. Insane. And it's actually, he was. His overall popularity rating is higher than 38. He's at like 40 in the ball. So in he, people approve of his job more than they approve of his handling of immigration. I can't recall when that's happened, and I can't see that as an issue.

[C]

And the other thing that's interesting, I didn't look at the Republican, I didn't look at the cross tabs of it because this is, I think, just Americans. It wasn't really a political poll, but I'm sure there was a party ID in there. Is that in far right circles, they like Nick Fuentes. They think Donald Trump is not doing enough. So he's, you know what I mean? So he's getting buffeted by those two sort of polar forces.

[B]

Okay, well, we're not gonna go there. Mark, I, I appreciate you coming back on here. I know you're busy berating Florida auto dealers on Twitter and that your, your schedule's quite busy. So thank you for tucking us in.

[C]

Well, I, I, well, I, I probably, I don't want to get. Well, maybe I don't get in trouble.

[B]

Do not get yourself in trouble, Mark.

[C]

But yeah, I, I would go to my Twitter feed and you can look up, look that up. I would advise you to use cars.

[B]

I was not making it up. I was not making it up. Okay, Mark, Love you, buddy. Thank you for doing. Mark obviously worked for us for a while. He's now at Axios, where you can read his stuff, including his latest article. But you shouldn't subscribe there. You should subscribe here to the Bulwark, where you get great takes like this. Take care, buddy.