Bulwark Takes — “Private GOP Poll Reveals Trump’s Immigration Support Crumbling”

Date: January 16, 2026
Host: Sam Stein (Bulwark Managing Editor)
Guest: Mark Caputo (Axios, former Bulwark)
Additional voice: Unnamed clip of Kelly (MAGA-sphere media)
Main theme:
An exclusive look at private GOP polling and public reaction showing how Donald Trump’s political advantage on immigration is eroding, fueled by disturbing viral footage of ICE raids, surging media scrutiny, and bipartisan unease.

Episode Overview

The episode dissects the findings of a private internal GOP poll obtained by Mark Caputo, revealing that Trump’s previously strong position on immigration — particularly mass deportations — is now significantly underwater among key voter groups. The discussion traces the real-time political impact of viral social media footage of ICE raids, the Trump campaign’s internal anxieties and defiance, the MAGA-sphere’s response, and the challenges facing the White House in recalibrating amid mounting criticism.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Poll: A Crumbling Stronghold

• Private poll findings:
  • 60% of independents and 58% of undecided voters say Trump is too focused on deporting illegal immigrants.
  • 33% think Trump is targeting law-abiding individuals, not criminals.
  • These numbers are “bad” and are causing alarm within Trump’s camp.
  • Echoes public polling: AP/NORC poll: 38% approve of Trump’s immigration stance, 61% disapprove.
  • This support is significantly weaker than Trump’s overall approval rating, a rare development for an issue he's previously owned.
  • (01:32) “Those are bad numbers.” — Sam Stein

Viral Video’s Influence and Public Perception

• Visuals driving opinion:
  • Mark Caputo and Sam Stein agree that vivid, disturbing footage of ICE raids — “masked men smashing windows,” “people being dragged out of cars” — is defining public perception far more than policy arguments.
  • Caputo notes Trump as a “visual guy” who knows how optics drive his brand:
    • (04:19) “…he wants mass deportations. What he doesn't want is what people are seeing. He doesn't like the way it looks. Looks bad.” — Caputo quoting Trump advisor
  • The term “Gestapo,” invoked even by Joe Rogan, is entering the popular lexicon.
  • Social media is amplifying negative perceptions, making it impossible for the White House to control the narrative.

Trump Team’s Internal Response: No Panic, But No Retreat

• Trump’s posture:
  • Publicly, the administration is in full-offense mode:
    • Vice President J.D. Vance “sets the edge” at a press conference, blaming the victim, attacking the media, refusing to apologize.
  • The “Pirates of the Caribbean” metaphor: The Trump team’s approach is “attack to run away”—building momentum with aggression while actually coping with vulnerability.
  • A deep refusal to look weak, despite private doubts, is driving escalation, not moderation.
    • (06:53) “They cannot afford in their minds to look defensive.” — Mark Caputo
  • Some believe this is the “climax” of the offensive and expect intensity to “come down toward the end.”

No Clear Off-Ramp

• Options for recalibration:
  • Sam suggests a possible pivot (“we’ve made the streets safer, we’re done”), but Caputo is skeptical.
  • The news cycle’s volatility may offer an eventual “off-ramp,” but so far, the posture is aggression and blaming local authorities (sanctuary cities) for non-cooperation.
  • Administration anger is also directed at Democratic state and local officials for not aiding ICE.

Notable Clip: MAGA Spheres’ Own Anxiety

• Kelly’s assessment (08:38):
  • Even trusted voices in the MAGA media are openly anxious, both about polling and about the risk of escalation if Trump invokes the Insurrection Act.
    • (08:38) “We're starting to get political data in on it, and it's not great. Not great.” — Kelly
  • Sam highlights this as a bellwether—even Trump supporters are uneasy.

The ICE vs. Cops Distinction

• ICE’s poor image:
  • Viral videos of aggressive or unfit ICE officers are especially damaging. It’s not traditional “cop vs. protester” polling, where police typically poll stronger.
  • GOP pollster: when voters are asked if they support ICE agents or demonstrators more, ICE “only edged out the demonstrators by a couple percentage points”—a shocking result for law enforcement polling.
    • (11:43) “Normally… cops over perform, and here you're not seeing it.” — Caputo

Fractures on the Right

• Trump’s dilemma:
  • Far-right voices (e.g., Nick Fuentes) say Trump isn’t going far enough, while most voters believe he’s too aggressive. Trump is “buffeted” from both sides.
    • (12:20) “So he's getting buffeted by those two sort of polar forces.” — Caputo

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the numbers:
  • (01:32) “Those are bad numbers.” — Sam Stein
• On Trump’s core political concern:
  • (04:19) “He wants mass deportations. What he doesn't want is what people are seeing. He doesn't like the way it looks. Looks bad.” — Caputo quoting top Trump advisor
• On strategy:
  • (06:53) “They cannot afford in their minds to look defensive.” — Caputo
• On right-wing anxiety:
  • (08:38) “We're starting to get political data in on it, and it's not great. Not great…” — Kelly
• On ICE’s poor polling:
  • (11:43) “ICE agents only edged out the demonstrators by like a couple percentage points. And normally when you look at polling about like cops versus protesters, cops over perform, and here you're not seeing it.” — Caputo
• Underlying tension:
  • (12:01) “Him at 38 on immigration is insane to me… People approve of his job more than they approve of his handling of immigration. I can't recall when that's happened…” — Stein

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:32] – Private polling results revealed (independents, undecideds, law-abiding deportations)
• [04:19] – Trump advisor’s quote on optics vs. policy
• [06:53] – Trump world’s refusal to look weak; offensive posture
• [08:38] – MAGA media (Kelly) expresses polling anxiety
• [11:43] – Pollster: ICE agents barely outpoll demonstrators
• [12:01] – Trump underwater on immigration, a historically strong issue

Tone & Flow

This is a brisk but in-depth exchange with wry humor, insider political analysis, and unsparing candor. Mark Caputo brings a mix of sharp reporting and tongue-in-cheek metaphors (“Pirates of the Caribbean”), while Sam Stein keeps the focus on the numbers and their unprecedented implications for Trump.

Conclusion

This episode delivers a rare look inside the GOP’s own doubts about the political costs of Trump’s hardline immigration policies, showing how bad optics, viral social media, and a new polling reality are pressing the White House into a defensive, combative mode. The hosts underscore how rapidly public sentiment can shift in the era of social media and hint at potential fractures or future recalibrations ahead of 2026’s electoral cycle.