Podcast Summary: "Putin Escalates His Cruel War Against Civilians | Command Post"

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Edition: Command Post (Ep. 2)
Date: January 15, 2026
Hosts: Mark Hertling (Ret. US Army, Bulwark Contributor) & Bill Kristol (Editor at Large, The Bulwark)

Overview

This episode of the Bulwark’s “Command Post” dives deeply into the evolving dynamics of Russia’s war on Ukraine, with special emphasis on Russia’s escalating attacks on civilian infrastructure during the brutal winter. Mark Hertling and Bill Kristol analyze not only the military situation on the ground, but also the international political context—particularly the US's wavering support, ongoing European efforts, and large-scale strategic missteps, like the US administration’s preoccupation with Greenland. The episode also discusses wider themes of NATO stability, growing European autonomy, global power vacuums, and the risks of undermining alliances. Finally, the hosts reflect on recent developments in US-Iran policy and new challenges related to artificial intelligence in defense.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Situation in Ukraine: Targeting Civilians with ‘Heat, Light, and Fear’

• Escalation of Russian Strategy:

  • Russia is shifting from territorial gains to targeting Ukrainian urban infrastructure, notably power and heat during the extreme winter.
  • Recent attacks involve new combinations of drone and ballistic missile strikes to overwhelm defenses and cripple local energy substations.
  • The impact: protracted “blackouts” in large cities like Kyiv in sub-freezing winter, leading to dire humanitarian conditions.
    • “What they're targeting now specifically are local substations and distribution nodes throughout Ukraine. So they're creating what they're calling now a rolling collapse of power and heat for big population centers.”—Mark Hertling [03:22]

• Consequences for Civilians:

  • Civilians face freezing temperatures, no power, water shortages, and increased risk of disease and death.
  • Russia and Ukraine both endure high military casualties, but civilians suffer the most.

2. Europe Steps Up as US Wavers

• Growing European Commitment:

  • The EU’s new €90 billion package for Ukraine is significant but insufficient to fill the gap left by diminished US support.
    • “That ain't enough. I mean, quite frankly, that's just not enough…when you eliminate the US contributions…it’s relatively small.”—Mark Hertling [07:32]
  • France and others are debating procurement strategies—whether to prioritize European defense industries or allow open-market acquisitions by Ukraine.

• Signs of European Frustration & Concern:

  • Corruption scandals in Ukraine complicate European (and US) political support.
  • Growing European resolve continues, but the absence of US leadership emboldens Putin and sows insecurity within NATO.

3. US Focus and Strategic Disarray: The Greenland Distraction

• US Policy Confusion:

  • The Biden/Trump administration’s (timeline ambiguous, possibly a speculative future) focus on Greenland—insisting on US control—alienates key allies Denmark and Canada and weakens NATO cohesion.
    • “It’s insanity. … while Ukraine is fighting for survival, we’re fighting NATO, which is on fire from inside over Greenland. It just doesn’t make any sense.”—Mark Hertling [09:33]
  • No real military rationale exists for an aggressive Greenland policy; US can already access what it needs via alliance cooperation.

• NATO Damage and New Power Blocs:

  • Nordics and Baltics (NB8: Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, plus other participants) form a robust regional block in response to US unpredictability.

  • Baltic nations lead in cyber defense; Finland and Sweden significantly increase defense capability and spending—steps driven by the Russian threat, not by US demand.

    • “Estonia has the NATO center, cyber center of excellence in their country. They are killing it in terms of cyber defense. … They are now training the rest of Europe from that center of excellence in talent.”—Mark Hertling [18:27]

• Growing Alarm for NATO’s Future:

  • Even optimistic observers in Europe are now "aghast" and question American reliability.
  • Some calls arise (e.g. in Sweden) for nuclear self-sufficiency due to eroding trust in US guarantees.

4. Global Power Vacuums: US Pivoting and Its Effects

• Strategic Shift Fallout:

  • The US’s sporadic “pivots” (Asia, then Latin America, now threatening to draw down in Europe and Africa) create power vacuums.
  • These openings are quickly exploited by Russia and especially China, who expand influence through investments, trade, and military presence.
    • “Whenever they [China] perceive an opening, they’re going to go there. And that’s what they’ve done in Latin America with the Belt and Road inside of Africa…”—Mark Hertling [21:51]

• Historical Lessons:

  • After US military drawdowns in Europe post-Cold War, adversaries like Russia acted opportunistically, e.g. the invasion of Georgia post-Obama’s Asia pivot.

• European Calculations:

  • If trust in the US frays, European policymakers may edge closer to China for economic and maybe even defense-related cooperation—a risk acknowledged with concern.

5. Soft Power, Iran, and Information Campaigns

• US Policy Toward Iran: Military and Soft Power Shortfalls:

  • The US appears poised for limited action against Iran over regime repression, but military strikes alone unlikely to bring change.
    • “This is a long term military campaign…you’re talking about a big country with a lot of people under arms…”—Mark Hertling [26:55]
  • The administration’s reduction of information warfare tools (e.g. closing Radio Free Europe broadcasts) undermines non-military levers in support of Iranian opposition.
    • “If you want to have…a reasonable kind of regime change there, you’d think you’d want…a lot of US influence perhaps on what’s happening there”—Bill Kristol [29:43]

• The Need for a Whole-of-Government Approach:

  • Quoting military leadership wisdom: “You can’t kill your way out of it. You’ve got to use other methods.”—Mark Hertling [29:53]

6. Artificial Intelligence and Risks in Military Adoption

• AI Adoption in Defense:

  • The Pentagon’s plan to adopt GROK (an Elon Musk–backed AI) raises concerns about data control, supply chain risk, and alliance trust.

  • Key issues: security clearance adherence, red-teaming/bias testing, human accountability, and vendor risk—especially given allies’ nervousness about data sharing with US defense platforms.

    • “When you say we’re going to put this [GROK] into the Department of Defense...all our allies...are saying: is my information going to go in this...can my enemies use that against me when the US uses it in their artificial intelligence?”—Mark Hertling [32:35]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mark Hertling on Russia’s strategy in Ukraine:
  • “It was about heat, light, and fear…that equates to no heat, no water, no sanitation, no ability to cook food. And then it becomes not only horrid conditions, but it contributes to casualties and disease.” [03:22]
• Bill Kristol’s editorial on US focus:
  • “…How crazy it is to be not helping Ukraine and then obsessing over Greenland.” [09:00]
• Mark Hertling on NATO’s resilience:
  • “They [the Nordics and Baltics] have become a powerhouse…they have created this consortium” [15:32]
• Kristol on information operations:
  • “Contrary to the caricature of the military, always thinking that weapons solve everything. That serious military people...understand the importance of soft power, of information…” [29:10]
• Hertling on applying national power:
  • “You can’t kill your way out of it. You’ve got to use other methods.” [29:53]
• Hertling on AI risks:
  • “AI can assist decisions, but it doesn’t own them. It’s still someone, a human, a warm breathing human who’s responsible for what happens.” [32:31]

Key Timestamps for Reference

• 00:59–03:22: Opening and overview of Russia’s targeting of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure
• 05:51–07:32: European responses and impact of US absence
• 09:00–11:34: Greenland distraction, NATO discord, and US strategy
• 15:32–20:41: Nordic/Baltic bloc emergence and defense innovation
• 21:51–26:16: US pivot, China’s inroads, and global strategic vacuums
• 26:39–29:53: Iran policy, soft power, military limitations
• 30:41–33:12: AI adoption at the Pentagon and alliance risks
• 33:12–End: Closing thoughts, subscriber encouragement

Conclusion

This episode paints a comprehensive and urgent picture of a changing international security landscape, where Russian brutality against civilians continues largely off the front pages, while American distraction and drift risk eroding alliances and strengthening adversaries. The hosts stress the need for holistic, alliance-oriented strategies—including soft power and technological prudence—to confront the interconnected challenges posed by authoritarian regimes and great power competition.

[End of summary]