Bulwark Takes: “Putin Is A Master Manipulator, Trump Is Getting Outplayed” | Bulwark on Sunday
Release Date: February 16, 2025

Hosts:

• Bill Kristol – Editor at Large, The Bulwark
• Eric Edelman – Co-host, Shield of the Republic Podcast, former Foreign Service Official and Ambassador

1. Introduction and Setting the Stage

[00:00]
Bill Kristol opens the episode by introducing Eric Edelman, highlighting his extensive background in national security and foreign policy. The conversation is set against a backdrop of intense recent developments involving US-Russia relations, specifically focusing on a phone call between former President Trump and Vladimir Putin, speeches by key US officials, and potential US-Russia negotiations.

2. US-Russia Negotiations and Lavrov’s Statement

[00:36] - [03:43]
Bill Kristol and Eric Edelman delve into the recent announcement of forthcoming US-Russia talks, excluding Ukraine and Saudi Arabia. Edelman brings attention to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s statement, emphasizing that the Trump administration appears to be seeking a comprehensive normalization of US-Russia relations. This includes discussions on the Middle East, Palestine, lifting sanctions from previous administrations, and addressing NATO’s expansion.

Notable Quote:
Eric Edelman [01:35]:
“This was in some sense an effort to completely normalize the U.S.-Russian relationship, prospectively undoing things that go back to the end of the Obama administration... It had a very ominous ring to it.”

3. Sanctions and Continuity in US Foreign Policy

[03:43] - [07:08]
Kristol discusses the historical context of US sanctions on Russia, noting the broad bipartisan support following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. He raises concerns about the Trump administration’s apparent willingness to abandon established sanctions frameworks, undermining decades of foreign policy continuity.

Notable Quote:
Bill Kristol [04:49]:
“It turns out it's total American accommodation to Putin's point of view, I guess.”

4. Trump’s Negotiation Tactics and Putin’s Manipulation

[07:08] - [14:55]
Edelman critiques the Trump administration’s negotiating approach, highlighting Trump’s reliance on personal relationships and unconventional methods. He argues that Vladimir Putin, a seasoned strategist, is effectively outmaneuvering Trump, leading to potentially unfavorable agreements for the US and its allies. The discussion includes the release of American hostages and the likelihood of future hostage situations incentivized by such deals.

Notable Quote:
Eric Edelman [12:08]:
“Putin is a master of understanding human relationships at several levels above Trump. What they were really saying is this guy is a professional KGB case officer and he knows how to manage Trump.”

5. Implications for European Security and NATO

[14:55] - [20:34]
Kristol and Edelman explore the broader implications of US-Russia negotiations on European security. Edelman warns that undermining the US’s commitment to NATO could embolden Russia to further aggression in Eastern Europe, threatening nations like Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Kristol adds that weakening US-European alliances hampers collective efforts to counter other global threats, notably from China.

Notable Quote:
Eric Edelman [14:55]:
“It’s going to be very bad for European security and endanger American security as a result, which our security has been tied to European security for well over a hundred years and it will continue to be.”

6. Vice President Vance’s Speech at Munich

[20:34] - [24:52]
The conversation shifts to Vice President Vance’s controversial speech at the Munich Security Conference. Edelman criticizes Vance for dismissing European security threats and focusing instead on internal European issues, such as populist nationalist movements. This approach was poorly received by European leaders, undermining US credibility and its role as a security guarantor.

Notable Quote:
Bill Kristol [24:52]:
“It is astonishing, honestly.”

7. Impact on US-European Relations and Liberal Values

[24:52] - [30:15]
Kristol reflects on the damaging effect of US policies on international security and liberal values. By criticizing European nations for their internal politics and weakening security alliances, the US risks alienating its allies and diminishing its influence. Edelman echoes these sentiments, pointing out that this shift undermines efforts to build a united front against authoritarian regimes.

Notable Quote:
Bill Kristol [20:34]:
“Trust and confidence in the US, both economically and in terms of security, are at risk.”

8. Consequences for American Safety and Prosperity

[30:15] - [30:50]
Edelman emphasizes that the US’s pivot away from traditional alliances and security commitments will decrease American safety both domestically and internationally. He links the undermining of alliances to potential economic downturns and increased vulnerabilities to foreign interference and sabotage.

Notable Quote:
Eric Edelman [14:55]:
“Everything that's going on actually is going to make Americans less safe at home and abroad.”

9. Conclusions and Future Outlook

[30:50] - [End]
Kristol and Edelman conclude by expressing hope that the negative trajectory of current US foreign policy will prompt a reaction within the US political landscape. They anticipate that both parties in Congress may recognize the perilous shift and work towards restoring strong international alliances and commitments.

Final Remarks:
Bill Kristol [30:34]:
“We hope there will be a reaction against this moment in the U.S. and in the Congress of the U.S., but we'll have to see.”

Key Takeaways

• Normalization of US-Russia Relations: The Trump administration’s efforts to normalize relations with Russia threaten to reverse decades of sanctions and diplomatic stances established post-Obama.

• Putin’s Strategic Advantage: Vladimir Putin is adeptly manipulating US administrations, particularly leveraging Trump's negotiating style to his advantage, leading to potentially unfavorable outcomes for the US.

• Threat to European Security: Weakening NATO and US commitments emboldens Russia and other authoritarian regimes, posing significant risks to European nations and, by extension, American security.

• Damage to US-European Relations: Controversial speeches by US officials, such as VP Vance’s address in Munich, have damaged the US’s reputation and undermined its role as a security guarantor.

• Impact on American Safety and Prosperity: Diminished international alliances and increased geopolitical instability directly threaten American safety and economic well-being.

• Call for Political Reaction: There is hope that the current trajectory will spur a political backlash within the US, leading to strengthened international alliances and reaffirmed commitments to global security.

Notable Quotes Directory:

• Eric Edelman [01:35]: Discussing Russian intentions to normalize US-Russian relations.
• Bill Kristol [04:49]: Commenting on US accommodation to Putin.
• Eric Edelman [12:08]: Analyzing Putin’s manipulation of Trump.
• Eric Edelman [14:55]: Highlighting risks to European and American security.
• Bill Kristol [24:52]: Expressing astonishment at US foreign policy moves.
• Bill Kristol [20:34]: Discussing the erosion of trust in US security and economic leadership.
• Eric Edelman [30:15]: Linking policy shifts to decreased American safety.
• Bill Kristol [30:34]: Anticipating political backlash in the US.

Conclusion:
This episode of Bulwark Takes offers a critical analysis of the Trump administration’s approach to Russia, highlighting the strategic manipulation by Putin and the consequent threats to international security and American prosperity. Kristol and Edelman call for a reassessment of US foreign policy to restore alliances and uphold the principles that have underpinned global stability since World War II.