Bulwark Takes: Recession Looms As Trump Crashes The Economy, Per Report
Release Date: March 19, 2025
In this compelling episode of Bulwark Takes, hosts Tim Miller and JVL dissect a concerning report from the UCLA Anderson School of Management forecasting a looming recession influenced by former President Donald Trump's economic policies. This in-depth analysis explores the multifaceted factors contributing to the potential downturn, backed by expert opinions and real-world anecdotes.
1. Introduction to the Anderson School Report
Tim Miller opens the discussion by introducing the UCLA Anderson School's forecast, highlighting that the report pinpoints the enactment of Trump-era policies as key triggers for the predicted recession.
Tim Miller [00:00]: “We saw this report from the Anderson School. It's a business school at UCLA. My girl Katie went there. Shout out to Katie and they write this. UCLA Anderson forecast announces a recession. Watch Trump policies have fully enacted Promise a recession.”
JVL emphasizes the gravity of the report, noting that reputable economists are voicing these concerns despite the current economic strength under President Joe Biden.
JVL [00:27]: “It's pretty bad. So the, what struck me the most about this, this piece by the, the Economist there... the economy is strong right now. Joe Biden's economy is strong right now. Their concern is all about the choices being made by the Trump administration.”
2. Key Factors Leading to the Predicted Recession
The hosts delve into the multiple factors identified by the report that could converge to trigger a recession. JVL outlines that recessions typically result from a combination of adverse events rather than a single economic downturn.
JVL [00:27]: “Recessions happen when there's a confluence of events. Having one sector tip over... isn't enough to cause a recession.”
Tim Miller and JVL collaboratively explore the specific policies and their ripple effects:
a. Tariffs and Their Economic Impact
Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are highlighted as a primary concern, leading to slowed economic growth and rising prices.
JVL [01:14]: “The first is tariffs. So tariffs will cause a slowdown. Just a fact. It will cause rising prices. Just a fact.”
Tim Miller adds that tariffs affect multiple sectors, including the auto industry, retail, and agriculture, creating widespread economic strain.
Tim Miller [01:33]: “Auto sector downstream and upstream for auto sector, retail, agriculture will also likely contract... ancillary sectors get impacted by it.”
b. Federal Workforce Cuts ("Doge Cuts")
The proposed reduction of the federal workforce by 10-15%—translating to approximately one million jobs—is identified as a significant destabilizing factor.
JVL [02:55]: “Musk has said he wants to cut 10 to 15% of the federal workforce... it would be the largest layoff in American history... causing a lot of turbulence.”
Tim Miller underscores the cascading effects of these cuts, citing examples such as the closure of restaurants dependent on government employees and impacts on local agriculture.
Tim Miller [03:22]: “40% of D.C. restaurants are saying that they're likely to close... a farmer in Louisiana whose clients were the school district and the food bank... might lose his farm.”
c. Immigration Policies and Construction Sector Decline
Strict immigration policies leading to mass deportations are projected to cripple the construction industry, a vital component of the American economy.
JVL [04:22]: “The construction sector is incredibly important... heavily dependent on undocumented immigrants... these are signature policy initiatives of Trump. All three of them will cause massive economic harm.”
Tim Miller connects these policies to broader economic challenges, including increased insurance costs and rising prices in housing-related expenses.
Tim Miller [06:25]: “Insurance prices on our house are going up... cost of rebuilding things is going to go higher because of the tariffs, immigration... passing that down to us.”
3. Broader Economic Indicators and Market Instability
JVL references additional indicators from the report that signal underlying economic instability, such as:
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Housing Market Issues: House prices nearing record highs coupled with unsold new homes echoing the 2009 financial crisis.
JVL [06:45]: “House prices are near record levels while the number of new unsold homes on the market is at levels last seen in 2009.”
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Stock Market Speculation: Surge in investments in speculative assets like artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, alongside dangerously low corporate bond spreads, indicating a disconnect between perceived risk and actual market stability.
JVL [07:37]: “Surge in investment in somewhat speculative assets like artificial intelligence as well as purely speculative assets like crypto... Corporate bond spreads are near all-time lows suggesting investors still aren't fully pricing in risk.”
4. Potential Policy Responses and Mitigation Strategies
The Anderson School report suggests that the recession is largely avoidable if incoming policies are adjusted promptly. Tim Miller discusses the challenge of reversing policies before their detrimental effects fully materialize.
Tim Miller [07:37]: “The recession is entirely avoidable. The policies outlined above are pared back. They're unlikely to trigger one... But if these actions trigger what these analysts say very well might happen, which is a recession, and then Trump decides... it's too late, right?”
JVL remarks on the difficulty of achieving another "soft landing" akin to the one managed during the COVID-19 recovery under Biden's administration.
JVL [08:49]: “Once the business cycle is falling... Getting a soft landing coming out of COVID... We ain't getting another one.”
5. Real-World Implications and Anecdotal Evidence
To illustrate the report’s predictions, Tim Miller shares personal anecdotes:
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Impact on Homeowners: Rising insurance premiums due to increased rebuilding costs driven by tariffs and labor expenses.
Tim Miller [06:25]: “We bought our house two, three years ago now... we're going to be paying X more per year in insurance.”
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Local Business Closures: Restaurants in D.C. facing closures due to reduced government employment affect the broader community and economy.
Tim Miller [03:22]: “40% of D.C. restaurants are likely to close by the end of the year... impacting the local economy.”
6. Conclusion and Future Outlook
Tim Miller and JVL conclude by reiterating the urgency of monitoring these economic indicators and policy decisions. They emphasize the unique position of this potential recession, largely influenced by actionable policy changes rather than uncontrollable external factors.
Tim Miller [07:37]: “Recession is entirely avoidable... no magic, no recession button... you have to pare it back before the impacts start being too.”
The hosts urge listeners to stay informed and remain vigilant as the economic landscape evolves, promising to keep a close watch on developments related to the forecasted recession.
Notable Quotes
- Tim Miller [00:00]: “UCLA Anderson forecast announces a recession. Watch Trump policies have fully enacted Promise a recession.”
- JVL [00:27]: “The economy is strong right now. Their concern is all about the choices being made by the Trump administration.”
- JVL [02:55]: “It would be the largest layoff in American history... causing a lot of turbulence.”
- Tim Miller [06:25]: “We're going to be paying X more per year in insurance.”
- JVL [08:49]: “We ain't getting another [soft landing].”
This episode serves as a critical examination of how specific economic policies can have widespread and potentially devastating effects on the national economy. Through expert analysis and relatable examples, Tim Miller and JVL provide listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the factors at play and the importance of timely policy interventions to avert a recession.