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- [00:00]
Sam Stein
Hey, guys, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bulwark, and I'm joined by Congressman Brandon Boyle of the great state of Pennsylvania, the great city of Philadelphia. I don't. I have my thoughts about Philadelphia. I'll save them for a different podcast. He's here to talk about the budget, the big beautiful bill, whatever you want to call it, and then a very interesting procedural move that Republicans made that may open the floodgates for Democrats like him in the future when it comes to scoring bills. We'll get into all that wonky stuff, but subscribe to the feed first. Congressman, thanks so much for doing this. I just want to set the table for people who are watching this because this is, you know, takes time to edit these videos we're recording. It's like 10:45am on Tuesday. The Senate has been in session, like, all night, basically trying to get the final vote for passage of this bill. It comes down to essentially, as I read at Lisa Murkowski, Senator from Alaska, and essentially whether or not they can insulate Alaska from the worst parts of this bill is, is how I read this. They're trying to basically make sure that some of the Medicaid cuts, some of the snap cuts just don't hit Alaska. And it's shocking to me that a senator will be like, well, if my state is saved by this bill, it's fine if all the other 49 aren't. And it's even more shocking because Murkowski had the same thing happen with the Obamacare appeal in 2017, and she didn't take the deal. She said, no, we need. There should be universal standard here. So I'm just sort of curious knowing that we don't know if the bill's actually going to pass. Seems likely it's going to pass in the Senate. What do you make of just what happened overnight?
- [01:35]
Brandon Boyle
Yeah. So first, Sam, Philadelphia is the birthplace of the nation and the home of the super bowl champions. So I do have to defend my people.
- [01:43]
Sam Stein
I shouldn't have triggered you. I should have triggered you.
- [01:45]
Brandon Boyle
Yes, yes. This is, I, I need, I will avoid going further on on this topic, but that'll be a different podcast. In all seriousness, though, you know, I wish that the stakes weren't so damn high. I mean, it is the health care of 17 million Americans that's at stake, but it's actually even more than that, because if we see hospitals close in rural America and urban America, it'll actually be the rest of us who may not have Medicaid or may not be on the ACA exchanges who will also have our health care impacted. So and I think that second part, that probably that part of the story probably hasn't gotten out as much as it should. I mean we should believe these providers when they are openly telling us that they will close. I mean I have hospitals in my district in Philadelphia. Einstein Hospital is a great example. This Temple University Hospital. They Medicaid populations over 80%. So when Medicaid is cut by $1 trillion, the largest Medicaid cut in American history, four times larger than any previous Medicaid cut ever to happen, I mean, what do you think is going to happen?
- [03:02]
Sam Stein
Hospitals will close.
- [03:04]
Brandon Boyle
Bingo. And so now suddenly, my constituents, including myself included, suddenly won't have hospital to go to. So those are the stakes. I mean this is not a game and this is not abstract. Now in terms of where things stand at the moment as we're recording this, it looks like the Senate is in the last hour of its debate. And if the rumors are true that Murkowski has folded, then it looks like that would give them the 50 votes and JD Vance would be able to break the tie and then things will move over to the House. Supposed to be testifying in front of Rules Committee in exactly an hour from.
- [03:42]
Sam Stein
Not going to happen.
- [03:44]
Brandon Boyle
It looks like that would be delayed. What I've been told is that at the moment the Senate passes this rules can convene in an hour. I would be testifying because as ranking member of the Budget Committee, I'm first up actually to talk about this big ugly bill that in the end, after all has been said and done, it's basically this cutting healthcare for millions and millions of Americans to partially subsidize tax cuts that mostly go to the top 1%. The other way of paying for the tax cuts is running up our national debt.
- [04:22]
Sam Stein
That's the bottom line and you know, a non insubstantial amount of money for ice, which is what Vice President J.D. benz was talking about this morning. He was up on the Hill. Quickly, before we get to the current baseline that I budget policy that I want to talk about, I just kind of want to get your sense of what the politics are the House, when or if this bill goes back there, we've seen a lot of Freedom Caucus members say, well we don't, we don't like this because it doesn't fit the framework that we had agreed to. But you know, frankly, we've also seen them say things like this before and then get in line. So I, I don't know what I, I couldn't tell you what the actual, you know, temperature is there, but maybe you have a better sense.
- [05:03]
Brandon Boyle
Yeah. You know, the Freedom Caucus and, and folks who are part of it, with the exception of Tom Massie, by the way, I will give him credit. He is the one person who has a backbone on the other side. But the Freedom Caucus types, the people who will say their no on the Republican side, they'll huff on a Monday, they'll puff on a Tuesday, and by Wednesday, they have folded. And that has been the entire history of that crowd as it relates to Trump. And I hope this time is different, but I would not hold my breath, and I sure as hell wouldn't bet my health care, let alone the health care of my family or millions of Americans on.
- [05:43]
Sam Stein
All right, let's talk about current baseline. So basically, and I don't want to, like, bore the viewer. No, I don't think he's going to bore the viewer. I'm not going. You know what? I take that back. They can have their veggies, too. So basically, what Republicans did in the Senate is they said these expiring Trump tax cuts, which have always been set to expire, we're going to not pretend like we're going to pretend like they're not expiring, that they're just going to continue on indefinitely. And because if we do that, that means that when we extend these tax cuts, it would just be counted as a continuation of policy and it won't cost us anything. This is, and correct me if I'm wrong, the first time this has been done as a budgetary matter.
- [06:24]
Brandon Boyle
Yeah. So let me. So first I give you credit, by covering current policies, policy baseline, no one will accuse you of engaging in clickbait.
- [06:32]
Sam Stein
Hey, wait to see the metrics on this video. Okay.
- [06:35]
Brandon Boyle
Yeah, yeah. So look, current policy baseline gives us, gives it a patina of official soundingness. It's total unadulterated. It is. So I bought and had a donut this morning for breakfast according to current policy baseline. Now, tomorrow and the next day and every day for the rest of my life when I buy a donut that will cost me $0. That's current policy baseline. It is nonsense. It is BS and this is truly a new precedent. I mean, I can't you get this. But a lot of people out there may not. This is a new precedent, and we'll have, we will look back, I think, decades from now and recognize the ramifications of what it's like.
- [07:30]
Sam Stein
So that's what I want to get to what are the ramifications? Because you know, I hear a lot of people saying, well, if Republicans do this, Democrats are going to have to respond and do what? And you know, the sort of more far reaching, dreamlike scenarios for liberals is like, well, we'll do Medicaid for all and just pass it for one year and then extend it indefinitely after that year because technically it costs nothing. I don't really foresee something that dramatic, but I guess intellectually kind of open the floodgates for that.
- [07:59]
Brandon Boyle
Yeah. So just to back up for a Second, ever since 19, the whole rules around budget, the creation of the House Budget Committee, on which I serve as the lead Democrat, Senate Budget Committee, the creation of the Congressional Budget Office, our budget process, it all dates back to 1974. The Budget and Empowerment Control act of 74. Democratic Congress passes it, kind of forces it on Richard Nixon, interestingly, a few months before he's about to resign. That was revolutionary. I mean that created the whole modern budget system that we just kind of take for granted as the way it's always been. Ever since then, the role has been you need to get a score from the Congressional Budget Office. Things need to be paid for within a 10 year window. This is changing that. This is the current law. Since 74 has been something called the current law baseline. So the tax cuts are set to expire at the end of this year. You want to extend them, fine, but you have to pay for them with offsetting cuts or raising revenues some other way. This is changing that. It's saying, well, because this is the current policy, even though we didn't account for paying for it beyond this, because it's the current policy, we're going to pretend it's paid for and voila, magic, it's deemed paid for. So now that this becomes the new normal, why wouldn't. And look, I think this is horrible practice. It's phony. It's total bs, as I've very bluntly described. That said, I'm no sucker. Okay, Republicans are doing this. Congratulations, Republicans. You've just figured out the way that we're going to pay for Medicare for All.
- [09:41]
Sam Stein
Will you really push Medicare for all?
- [09:43]
Brandon Boyle
Yes, I 100% believe that Democrats will use this precedent. This will become the new normal moving forward. And the only thing that will govern us moving forward on deficit and debt, I believe are the markets that if the interest rate on the 10 year becomes so high, mortgage rates now are hovering in the high sixes, that will become the real speed limit, so to speak. But this will Be gone. This is a 51 year precedent and norm and frankly law that is being ignored. By the way, there is one other thing that is being missed that is a new. And I've been talking about this. I have a number of friends who served with me in the House and are now in the US Senate, all on the Democratic side. And I've been talking about this. The filibuster is done. Because what the Republicans have shown, the way they've gotten around this in order to avoid and ignore current law baseline and move to current policy is you don't have to worry about the parliamentarian ruling against you if you don't allow her to enter the room. And you don't allow.
- [10:51]
Sam Stein
Okay, so let's back up. What happened was just so I understand, they Democrats filed a point of order of some sort with the parliamentarian to make to get her to weigh in on whether this idea of following current policy baseline fit into the rules around reconciliation, which is how they're passing this bill. And Republicans just refused to meet with her.
- [11:12]
Brandon Boyle
Correct. So because of that, I mean, there's no question the parliamentarian would rule against.
- [11:20]
Sam Stein
Sure. But they argue that Lindsey Graham, who chairs the Budget Committee, has the jurisdiction to decide what baseline to use.
- [11:27]
Brandon Boyle
Well, I mean, if they're so confident in that argument, why wouldn't they allow the ruling on this from the Senate parliamentarian? They're not. And so it's rather convenient phony argument for them. I mean, they're so confident they won't allow her in the room and won't even allow a meeting. So essentially the new precedent moving forward is if you're using reconciliation and you have something you want to pass by simple majority and you're afraid it won't comply with the rules, just don't allow for a meeting. So I don't see why. And by the way, I mean, what a fool Kyrsten Sinema was. Can you imagine laying down your entire Senate career on a Senate procedure that Republicans basically just did away with six months after you left?
- [12:14]
Sam Stein
Now, she would, she would argue that there's been some, some measures that have been hit by the filibuster proof in the Senate since she's gone. But I guess I get your point that this is a backdoor way to do a fairly substantial piece of legislation.
- [12:28]
Brandon Boyle
Yeah. So I think that moving forward, Democrats will be foolish not to follow these two new precedents that Republicans have established.
- [12:40]
Sam Stein
Let me, let me just two last things. So back to the state of the bill. We talked about House Freedom Caucus and whether or not they'll stand up. My reading of your interpretation is that you don't think they will and that ultimately this thing will pass if it gets back to the House.
- [12:58]
Brandon Boyle
If you've bet on House Republicans folding to Trump, you have won every single time.
- [13:05]
Sam Stein
Okay. I just want to make sure.
- [13:08]
Brandon Boyle
I would be, listen, I would be very happy to be proven wrong on this, but I will go based on what has happened 100% of the time so far, rather than thinking this is going to be new. What I mean, what you could see perhaps, is maybe the July 4th deadline would slip and there would be, you know, 24, 48 hours of suspense, but then otherwise ultimately bold and they cave because ultimately they are still so afraid of Donald Trump weighing in in their primary.
- [13:45]
Sam Stein
All right, and then the last question, it's a little bit sort of a sensitive one for you because it's in House, but you have been somewhat critical of the man on Twitter or at least retweeted some articles about your Senate colleague in Pennsylvania, John Fetterman. He had something to say yesterday. I just want your reaction to it where he said, I, you know, missing some vacation time. We all know how this is going to go. We don't need to do this. And it really ticked off a lot of people, frankly, who, as you know, have their livelihoods, their medical needs dependent on this bill. I know that Fetterman's been in the spotlight. There's a lot of questions about just sort of his future in the party. I think Democrats openly welcome him because God knows you'd rather have a senator in your party than not. But what did you make of that statement? And what would you say to him if you had the chance to talk to him about it?
- [14:32]
Brandon Boyle
So first, I mean, the sacrifices that members of Congress make, especially those of us who have families with young children, I mean, those are real. My wife and daughter right now, I mean, I just left them, even though I long promised them that I'd be with them this week. So I don't minimize that. That said, it is an honor and a privilege to be here. Thank you. There are, and my daughter's 11. I explained this to her last night when I had to leave and drive down to D.C. i said, you know, this week will determine whether or not millions and millions of Americans still get to keep their health care. She's only 11. She got that. And, you know, to me, I think this is one of the most important things I will ever do, full stop. There is no place I would rather be than right here. Right now. And if I can make a difference and stop this bill from happening, I will do whatever it takes, stay up for 48 straight hours, 72 straight hours, do whatever it takes to block this bill from becoming law. And that should be the attitude frankly of every Democratic member of the House and Senate. If you are here, you're damn lucky and you're privileged to be here. You should want to be here. If you don't want to be here, leave.
- [15:52]
Sam Stein
Can't say it better than that. All right. Representative Brandon Boyle, a ranking member of the House Budget Committee, expert on current baseline and our current policy baseline should say and set to go testify before the Rules Committee. I don't know, maybe a couple hours or so. Thank you so much. Really appreciate it, man. Really do appreciate the insights. Thank you guys for watching this interview. Appreciate that as well. Subscribe to the feed and we'll talk later.