Sarah Longwell: Even Trump Voters Are Worried About Tariffs

Summary

Bulwark Takes: Sarah Longwell on Trump Voters' Concerns About Tariffs

Podcast Information:

• Title: Bulwark Takes
• Host/Author: The Bulwark
• Description: The news cycle doesn’t slow down, and neither does The Bulwark. Bulwark Takes brings you bite-sized takes on the news of the day from the entire Bulwark team, including Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, and Bill Kristol, and more.
• Episode: Sarah Longwell: Even Trump Voters Are Worried About Tariffs
• Release Date: April 14, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, Sarah Longwell, Publisher of The Bulwark, delves into a pressing economic issue: the growing unease among Trump voters regarding the current tariff regime. Released on April 14, 2025, the episode explores insights from focus groups conducted by The Bulwark, highlighting a shift in sentiment even among traditional Trump supporters. This comprehensive summary captures the key discussions, notable quotes, and the overarching conclusions drawn by Longwell.

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Sarah Longwell Discusses Trump's Tariff Regime on Morning Joe

Sarah Longwell begins by recounting her recent appearance on Morning Joe, where she addressed the unexpected apprehensions among Trump voters concerning the administration's tariff policies. She emphasizes that even those who initially supported Trump with the expectation of lowered prices are now expressing significant worry.

Key Point:

• Expectation vs. Reality: Trump's campaign promise to reduce prices for consumers is not being fulfilled, leading to growing disillusionment.

Notable Quote:

“Trump was hired, as I say on Morning Joe, to lower people's prices and that's not happening.”
— Sarah Longwell [00:31]

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Insights from Focus Groups: Voter Concerns

Longwell shares detailed findings from The Bulwark’s focus groups, which surveyed voters who shifted their support from President Biden in 2020 to Trump in the subsequent election. The focus groups revealed a nuanced perspective on tariffs, highlighting both confusion and fear among these voters.

Voter Testimonials

Trump Voter 1: Confusion and Uncertainty

“The tariffs I don't get, and it kind of concerns me a little bit, but I'm hoping it will make sense shortly. Right now, it just, it kind of doesn't to me.”
— Trump Voter 1 [01:09]

Trump Voter 2: Direct Impact and Disappointment

“I am too a little scared about the tariffs because the stock market has plunged a few times and I'm glad I just bought a newer car in December because the price is all up right now. So I'm still a little worried. I think it's been awful. I'm sorry. I had to get an oil change and it's not even at a regular car dealer. It cost me $10 more, so I'm not seeing it. And what I why I voted for Trump was for the prices to come down at the grocery store. Nothing's come down. That's why I voted for Trump. And they're talking about your cell phones, your cars, and everything is just going higher. I know it might hurt for us now, but when it hurts now, it's hard to recover for someone. So it really hits me in the gut.”
— Trump Voter 2 [01:24]

Analysis of Voter Sentiment

Longwell discusses how the focus group responses indicate a wider trend of disappointment among Trump voters. While not universally felt, a significant number of these voters are beginning to question the effectiveness of the current tariff policies.

Key Points:

• Primary Expectation: The core reason many voters supported Trump was the promise of lower consumer prices.
• Economic Impacts: Rising prices in essential goods like groceries, cars, and services are causing frustration.
• Business Uncertainty: Tariffs are introducing unpredictability in the market, affecting small businesses and supply chains.

Notable Quote:

“Payroll is really starting to say, is he going to focus on this at all? Is he going to do something about this? Because this is the thing that impacts me personally.”
— Sarah Longwell [02:27]

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Economic Implications and Voter Trust

Longwell elaborates on how the unmet economic promises are eroding trust among Trump supporters. Despite a relatively strong macroeconomy under President Biden, personal struggles with inflation and living costs remain at the forefront of voters' minds.

Key Insights:

• Macro vs. Personal Economy: While national economic indicators may show strength, individual experiences with inflation tell a different story.
• Business Perspectives: Small business owners and those in supply chains express concerns that tariffs could decimate their operations, making future planning difficult.
• Approval Ratings: Polling data suggests Trump's overall approval may be higher than his approval rating regarding economic management, indicating skepticism about his ability to deliver on his promises.

Notable Quote:

“When he hasn't brought inflation down, when he hasn't brought prices down, and then on top of that, he's introducing this uncertainty into the market... it'll decimate my business.”
— Sarah Longwell [02:29]

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Conclusion: Shifting Dynamics Among Trump Voters

Sarah Longwell concludes by highlighting the pivotal moment for Trump and his administration. The growing dissatisfaction among his base regarding tariffs may signal a shift in political support, especially if economic conditions continue to impact voters negatively.

Final Thoughts:

• Election Impact: Economic dissatisfaction could influence future electoral outcomes, as voters may reassess their support based on unmet economic expectations.
• Policy Reevaluation: Addressing the unintended consequences of tariffs is crucial for maintaining voter trust and ensuring economic stability.
• Long-Term Trust: Rebuilding confidence among Trump voters requires tangible actions to reduce consumer prices and stabilize the economy.

Notable Quote:

“When you see a lot of this polling come out showing that Trump's overall approval rating is actually higher than his approval rating on the economy, voters are starting to doubt that he is going to do the good things for the economy that he promised.”
— Sarah Longwell [03:00]

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Final Remarks

Sarah Longwell’s analysis provides a sobering look into the challenges facing Trump voters who once placed their hopes on his economic promises. As tariffs continue to shape the economic landscape, the implications for political allegiance and voter behavior remain significant.

For a deeper dive into Sarah’s latest piece on Trump voters and tariffs, visit The Bulwark’s website.

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Note: Advertisements and non-content segments from the transcript have been excluded to maintain focus on the substantive discussion.

Transcript

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[Sarah Longwell]

I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher, the Bulwark and I was on with Morning Joe this morning talking about how some Trump voters are feeling about his tariff regime and the chaos around it. You know, even Trump voters starting to get pretty worried about the tariffs. Trump was hired, as I say on Morning Joe, to lower people's prices and that's not happening. So go enjoy the clip.

[Interviewer]

So, Sarah, the Bulwark did a focus group with voters who went from President Biden in 2020 to President in the last election. And here is some of what they had to say about the tariffs.

[Trump Voter 1]

The tariffs I don't get, and it kind of concerns me a little bit, but I'm hoping it will make sense shortly. Right now, it just, it kind of doesn't to me.

[Trump Voter 2]

I am too a little scared about the tariffs because the stock market has plunged a few times and I'm glad I just bought a newer car in December because the price is all up right now. So I'm still a little worried. I think it's been awful. I'm sorry. I had to get an oil change and it's not even at a regular car dealer. It cost me $10 more, so I'm not seeing it. And what I why I voted for Trump was for the prices to come down at the grocery store. Nothing's come down. That's why I voted for Trump. And they're talking about your cell phones, your cars, and everything is just going higher. I know it might hurt for us now, but when it hurts now, it's hard to recover for someone. So it really hits me in the gut.

[Interviewer]

Wow. And these are Trump voters once again. Sarah, how across the board was this contention that they are disappointed in what's happening with these tariffs?

[Analyst]

Well, I don't know that it was entirely across the board. There are some voters that say, look, I'M not sure about this, but I'm.

[Sarah Longwell]

Willing to give it a shot or.

[Analyst]

I'm willing to wait and see. I think the fundamental thing to understand, though, isn't even from this focus group. It's from the hundreds of focus groups that I did going into this election, really understanding that the number one thing that Donald Trump was hired to do by so many of these voters was lower prices. I mean, that is what put him in the White House. It is why people overlooked his myriad flaws. It goes to sort of the central offering of Donald Trump, which is that he is a businessman. This is how these voters think of him and that he will do good things for the economy. And so to me, what is interesting is when you see a lot of this polling come out showing that Trump's overall approval rating is actually higher than his approval rating on the economy, voters are starting to doubt that he is going to do the good things for the economy that he promised. Remember, he told people he was going to lower grocery costs on day one. And for a lot of voters that we were talking to, even though the macro economy under Joe Biden was strong, we just listened to people talk over and over again about how they were struggling with grocery prices and with housing prices and with inflation. And so right now what you're seeing is voters really starting to say, is he going to focus on this at all? Is he going to do something about this? Because this is the thing that impacts me personally. And so when he hasn't brought inflation down, when he hasn't brought prices down, and then on top of that, he's introducing this uncertainty into the market. And look, there's a lot of people in these groups who work for small businesses who are in the supply chains and they understand, they'll tell you if this goes through, you know, not only will it decimate my business, but also how am I supposed to plan now for what I'm going to do forward? So a lot of uncertainty about the tariffs, even among Trump voters.

[Interviewer]

Sarah Longwell, thank you so much. Her latest piece on Trump voters and tariffs is online.

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