Sarah Longwell: Joni Ernst Handed The Dems a Huge Advantage

Summary

Bulwark Takes: Sarah Longwell on Joni Ernst Handing the Dems a Huge Advantage

Release Date: June 2, 2025

In this compelling episode of Bulwark Takes, Sarah Longwell delves into the recent political turmoil surrounding Senator Joni Ernst and her controversial stance on tariffs. The discussion also explores broader Republican strategies, internal conflicts, and the impact of recent policy decisions on both the party and the American public.

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Tariffs Under Scrutiny: Rand Paul’s Stand

Sarah kicks off the episode by highlighting Senator Rand Paul’s critical stance on tariffs. In his remarks, Rand Paul emphasized the widespread opposition to tariffs among various Kentucky businesses, stating:

"I talk to the Farm Bureau, which is opposed to the tariffs. I talk to the bourbon industry, which is opposed to the tariffs... Tariffs are a tax. So if you raise taxes on the private sector, that's not good for the private sector." (00:31)

Mitch Landau echoes Rand Paul's sentiments, praising him for breaking away from the MAGA bubble and uniting conservative legal minds against what they perceive as presidential overreach. Landau references a significant amicus brief authored by notable conservative legal scholars opposing Trump's tariffs, arguing that:

"The powers to tax, to regulate commerce, and to shape the nation's economic course must remain with Congress." (01:08)

This collective pushback underscores a growing faction within the Republican Party that prioritizes constitutional integrity over unilateral executive actions.

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Joni Ernst’s Controversial Comments and Aftermath

The episode takes a critical turn as the conversation shifts to Senator Joni Ernst’s recent remarks. During a town hall meeting, Ernst made a statement that quickly spiraled into controversy:

"We all are going to die." (07:12)

This comment, made in defense of her support for a bill linked to Trump's tariffs, was perceived as callous and out of touch, leading to widespread mockery and backlash. Ernst’s subsequent apology attempted to mitigate the fallout:

"I apologize. And I'm really, really glad that I did not have to bring up the subject of the tooth fairy as well." (08:19)

Longwell critiques Ernst’s approach, suggesting that her remarks inadvertently highlighted the bill's most damaging aspects—potential Medicaid cuts. She observes:

"Republicans right now are out there desperately trying to convince people that that's not true... her doubling down on this and drawing more attention to the fact that it will do real harm is one of those big prisoners disasters that I think they think they're being clever on but is absolutely going to backfire." (09:28)

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The Republican Coalition and Shifting Dynamics

Longwell and Landau discuss the evolving Republican coalition, noting its expansion to include Medicare beneficiaries and lower-income Americans who rely on social services. This shift necessitates a more nuanced approach to policy-making, moving away from the hardline tactics exemplified by Trump.

Longwell highlights the disconnect between Republican leadership and their constituents' realities:

"If you took it to Congress, many people in the Republican Party wouldn't be able to vote for it, not even cause on principle because it's deeply unpopular." (04:43)

This reluctance to take firm legislative action leaves the party vulnerable to internal fractures and public discontent.

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Public Sentiment and the Real Impact of Policy

Addressing the public’s reaction, Longwell notes that while immediate tangible impacts of tariffs and Medicaid cuts may be delayed, the prevailing uncertainty is causing significant anxiety among small business owners and their employees. Reflecting on KFF polling data, she points out:

"When asked the question if you've personally been covered or had a family or close friend covered by Medicaid, Democrats who say yes, 62% Republicans who say yes, 62%." (11:33)

This statistic underscores the bipartisan impact of potential policy changes, challenging the GOP’s narrative and highlighting the universal stakes involved.

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Conclusion: The Road Ahead for the Republican Party

As the episode wraps up, Longwell emphasizes the critical need for the Republican Party to reassess its strategies and prioritize constitutional responsibilities over partisan gains. The failure to address these issues transparently risks alienating a broad base of voters who are directly affected by these policies.

Mitch Landau concludes the discussion by reiterating the party’s accountability:

"Sarah, this is the peril of single party rule. The Republicans are responsible for all of this." (12:05)

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Key Takeaways:

• Internal Conservative Pushback: Prominent conservatives like Rand Paul are challenging the administration’s tariff policies, emphasizing constitutional boundaries and economic impacts.

• Joni Ernst’s Misstep: Ernst’s controversial remarks have inadvertently exposed the vulnerabilities within the Republican stance on tariffs and Medicaid, highlighting the potential for public backlash.

• Shifting Republican Coalition: The expanding Republican base necessitates more responsible and transparent policy-making, moving away from populist tactics.

• Public Uncertainty: The prevailing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and Medicaid cuts is causing significant concern among small businesses and the broader public, irrespective of political affiliation.

• Call for Congressional Action: Strengthening the role of Congress in trade policy is essential to maintaining democratic accountability and preventing executive overreach.

This episode of Bulwark Takes offers a critical examination of current Republican strategies, internal conflicts, and the broader implications for American democracy. Sarah Longwell provides insightful analysis, urging the party to prioritize integrity and responsiveness to its constituents' needs.

Transcript

[Sarah Longwell]

Hey, guys, Sarah Longwell here, publisher of the Bulwark. I just jumped off of Nicole Wallace's show where we were talking about tariffs, how voters and small businesses are feeling about it. But my favorite part was that we talked about that incredibly insane, creepy Joanie Ernst video. She doubled down on this idea that, like, I don't know, just cool. We're all going to die. So who cares about anything, especially policy, I guess, Who? Hope you enjoy it. Check it out. Don't forget to subscribe. See you guys.

[Rand Paul]

When I come home to Kentucky, I talk to the Farm Bureau, which is opposed to the tariffs. I talk to the bourbon industry, which is opposed to the tariffs. I talk to the cargo companies, ups, thl, all their pilots are opposed to it. I talk to the hardwood floor people. I talk to the people selling houses, building houses. I have no organized business, business interest in Kentucky for the tariffs. So I think it's worth the discussion and it's worth people remembering that the Republic used to be for lower taxes. Tariffs are a tax. So if you raise taxes on the private sector, that's not good for the private sector.

[Mitch Landau]

We are grateful to Senator Rand Paul for searching for the tariff fan and telling everyone that there aren't any. He's giving voice to what has been abundantly obvious to everyone outside of the MAGA bubble since day one, and we welcome him to reality. Pretty much as he said. No one wants Trump's tariffs. The senator is just one of the many conservatives now publicly pushing back on insanity. Donald Trump's attempt to play chicken with the American and potentially global economy. New York Times reports today that a supergroup of conservative legal giants have united to put forward an amicus brief opposing Donald Trump's tariffs as a massive overreach of presidential authority, which they are. They write this quote. The signers are constitutional scholars, legal historians, public lawyers, federal appellate judges, a former United States Attorney General, and three former United States senators. United by a common conviction. The endurance of the American Republic depends not only on elections or policy outcomes, but on the faithful preservation of its constitutional structure. The signers do not appear to defend or oppose any particular trade policy. They file this brief because they believe the Constitution draws bright lines between legislative and executive power and that those lines are being blurred in ways that threaten democratic accountability itself. The powers to tax, to regulate commerce, and to shape the nation's economic course must remain with Congress. They cannot drift silently into the hands of the President through inertia, inattention, or creative readings of statutes never meant to grant such authority. That conviction is not partisan. It is constitutional and it strikes at the heart of this case. That's nice. Now do democracy. This is just the latest in Trump's fracture, though, with conservative legal people. Late last week, Trump lashed out at Supreme Court puppeteer Leonard Leo as well as the Heritage Foundation. Trump called Leo a, quote, real sleazebag, end quote, and suggested that the Heritage foundation had led him astray on court picks after a federal court ruling blocked most of his tariffs. Joining our conversation is publisher of the Bulwark, host of the focus group podcast, Sarah Longwell. David's here as well. Sarah, David and I were talking in the break about how to make sense of this. If you're not an economist or a business reporter, it is most helpful to think back to Covid and do all the crazy things we did for Covid. Put on a mask, Clorox your produce, stay home from school, take your kids out of school, don't go to work. But there's no Covid. That's essentially what he's doing. Economy, shut it down for no reason.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, this is a bad idea. And I mean, everybody agrees it's a bad idea. And the people who foremost agree that it's a bad idea are free market conservatives. And so it's nice to see some of these elite conservatives speaking out. The problem that they have is in there. You just read this Power should lie with Congress. Well, we've got a problem with Congress in that Congress doesn't seem to want that power. I mean, Congress could take back the power of its purse, which is its constitutional role and mandate, but because these tariffs could never get through Congress. And this is something that is replete on a number of issues.

[Mitch Landau]

Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

If you took it to Congress, many people in the Republican Party wouldn't be able to vote for it, not even cause on principle because it's deeply unpopular. And so instead they let this lie with Trump in part because a, if Trump messes it up, you know, the problem is with him, but also they hope that Tacko will persist and that Trump will always chicken out and that therefore they can let Trump sort of go back and forth on this and, you know, do his saber ratt to other countries and then walk it all back and that everything will be okay and they don't have to do anything. But the real way to make this constitutional is for the Congress to do its job and for them to be the ones to step in and actually set trade policy. That's what they are supposed to do.

[Mitch Landau]

Sarah, how much of this is the public feeling?

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, I mean, they're starting to feel some of it. I mean, the main thing they're feeling is the uncertainty. So when you do focus groups, you know, people are, many of them are small business owners or they work for a company for whom the tariffs are going to make an impact. And so they're part of conversations where people are saying, I'm not sure what to do, or we're not sure how to make this decision or this amount of, you know, the cost of this particular thing is going up. And so, you know, anybody who knows a small business owner right now, I mean, you heard that's what Senator Rand Paul's talking about. These folks in Congress, they're all hearing from people who own businesses who are saying, this is a nightmare for us. And this is another place where you see, look, it's nice that there are some of these conservatives that are coming out and saying this. But the fact is, the cowardice is the, is the sort of deafening thing that you hear because, you know, all of these Republican members of Congress are hearing from their small business constituents that they are supposed to represent that this is terrible for them, it's terrible for their customers, terrible for their bottom line, and it makes it impossible to plan. And so you are hearing people worried about it, but the actual impact of it is probably still down, down the road, at least the major impact of it. I mean, the things that we've been talking about, the empty shelves, the massive price hikes, a lot of that stuff hasn't hit. It's more that people are living with the uncertainty right now.

[Joni Ernst]

They will be coming off. So we people are not. Well, we all are going to die. So for heaven's sakes, for heaven's sakes, folks.

[Mitch Landau]

We all are going to die. Peak maga, right? We showed you that moment on Friday. That was Republican Senator Joni Ernst in Iowa telling her constituents, quote, well, we're all going to die. She said it in her defense of her own support for Donald Trump's big, beautiful bill and the consequences which her constituents claim will make people die. The clip went viral. Joni Ernst was roundly mocked over her callousness over her support of a bill that is going to do real damage to real people's lives, her constituents. She's supposed to at least pretend publicly to care. So on Saturday, she issued this apology. We're going to show it to you in full. She's up for reelection next November. We want to show you how seriously she took the reaction to her comments.

[Joni Ernst]

Hello, everyone. I would like to take this opportunity to sincerely apologize for a statement that I made yesterday at my town hall. See, I was in the process of answering a question that had been asked by an audience member when a woman who was extremely distraught screamed out from the back corner of the auditorium, people are going to die. And I made an incorrect assumption that everyone in the auditorium understood that, yes, we are all going to perish from this earth. So I apologize. And I'm really, really glad that I did not have to bring up the subject of the tooth fairy as well. But for those that would like to see eternal and everlasting life, I encourage you to embrace my Lord and savior, Jesus Christ.

[Mitch Landau]

I don't know what's going on with her. I imagine she has consultants. Maybe they were on vacation. Sarah I've noted the absence of Steve Bannon in the Musk Bannon wars. And this is sort of the part of the MAGA base that Bannon used to be in the room advocating for and protecting people that depended on Medicaid for whom it was a matter of life and death. In Jodi Ernst comments, you sort of see the consequence of his absence.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I mean, look, this, this, first of all, that video of her, it looks she must be having a nervous breakdown. She is in a cemetery while she is making that joke. And one of the first things, one of the first rules about making a joke like that is it should be funny. And there was nothing funny about that. It was, I think what the kids call cringe is how it felt. I mean, this is a thing, this is a thing they've learned from Donald Trump, right? Is like you say something stupid, you don't apologize, you double down. And so that was her doubling down. But this is the kind of thing that Democrats should be all over, because what she did was highlight the thing that is the most pernicious about the bill, which is that people are going to lose Medicaid. And Republicans right now are out there desperately trying to convince people that that's not true. They are lying to people about what this bill does because they know that that is going to be deeply unpopular and not just unpopular with Democrats. And this is where I think a lot of Republicans are trying to catch up to the fact that their coalition has changed and it includes now a lot of people who are on Medicare, a lot of people who depend on these social services, a lot of lower income Americans in rural areas, and so mocking them. That's why Trump is very populist about these things. He tries to act all the time like they won't touch these programs. And so her sort of doubling down on this and drawing more attention to the fact that it will do real harm is one of those big prisoners disasters that I think they think they're being clever on but is absolutely going to backfire.

[Mitch Landau]

I had these numbers on the show on Friday and they're really eliminating. So KFF polling shows that when asked the question if you've personally been covered or had a family or close friend covered by Medicaid, Democrats who say yes, 62% Republicans who say yes, 62%. There is no partisan discrepancy between who has benefited directly from Medicaid. Sarah, this is the peril of single party rule. The Republicans are responsible for all of this.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, they are. And I'll tell you what was interesting. So we did a focus group not that long ago last week with Trump voters who were older and we asked them about Medicare, Medicaid and these cuts and they just didn't believe that they were going to happen. They just, they, you know, the thing is the right wing messaging machine right now and if you watch the Sunday shows, you saw Republicans doing this. They have decided to just lie about what the bill does, which is sort of par for the course, right? I mean, Donald Trump lied about how he was going to lower grocery prices. And you know, they just, they just lie about things and there is a whole machine there to then convince people of it. And so this is one of those things, though, if it passes, the proof's just in the pudding. Like people will feel it when those cuts happen, the same way that when the tariffs start to really kick in, they will feel those. And it is those personal consequences that will really impact people.

[Mitch Landau]

We'll stay on top of it with both of your help. Mitch Landau and Sarah Longwell, thank you both so much for joining us today. We want to let you know about an event in Washington this Friday. Sarah, along with the Bulwark and Crooked media are hosting a live show in fundraiser on June 6th in support of Andre Hernandez Romero. He's a makeup artist from Venezuela the Trump administration sent to that infamous supermax prison in El Salvador. The proceeds will go to the Immigrant Defenders Law Center. Check out their website for tickets and more information.