Sen. Mark Warner: Trump Owns Venezuela's Broken Government Now

Summary

---

Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes

Episode: Sen. Mark Warner: Trump Owns Venezuela's Broken Government Now
Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Sam Stein (for The Bulwark)
Guest: Senator Mark Warner (Vice Chairman, Senate Intel Committee)

---

Overview

This episode centers on the U.S. military operation that extracted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and the unprecedented U.S. response under President Trump. Senator Mark Warner offers candid, critical insights into the operation, its legitimacy, ramifications for international law, historic context, and the Trump administration’s emerging “imperialist whim.” The episode further explores scenarios involving potential U.S. interventions in other countries, especially Greenland, and questions whether American democratic norms and alliances will hold.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. How and When Senator Warner Was Informed

• Notification Breakdown:
  • Warner was not consulted prior to the operation; informed “after the strike had started” via an unsuccessful call from Secretary Rubio.

    “Secretary Rubio did try to call me, but it was after the strike had started... he tried my old number.”
    [01:38] – Warner

2. Flawless Execution, Questionable Precedent

• Military Execution:
  • Warner credits “remarkable job by the military” given Maduro’s security detail, but expresses incredulity over how it was accomplished so seamlessly.

    “How did this get carried out so flawlessly?”
    [02:04] – Warner

• Existential Legal Questions:
  • Expresses deep concern about the precedent: “If we can go in and extract... a leader because we feel like they’ve broken our laws, what right do we say to Vladimir Putin that you can’t do the same thing to Zelensky?”
    [03:26] – Warner

3. Selective Enforcement and Double Standards

• Contradictory Policy on Foreign Leaders:
  • Warner highlights incongruity in pardoning Honduras’ ex-president (convicted of drug crimes) while extracting Maduro on similar allegations.
    [02:30] – Warner

4. The Rationale: Drugs, Oil, or Both?

• Intelligence Justification:
  • Warner acknowledges Maduro’s corruption and unpopularity but notes intelligence did not support direct cartel links.

    “There was no direct tie between that gang and Maduro... the professionals who reached that conclusion got fired for not bending the product.”
    [04:58] – Warner

  • Says the president publicly conflated cocaine and fentanyl, though “fentanyl is not even mentioned” in the indictment.
• Oil as the True Motivator:
  • Warner points to Trump’s own statements: “It was became more and more obvious from the president’s own words that this was much more about oil.”
    [05:48] – Warner

5. The Specter of U.S. Boots on the Ground

• Uncertainty Over Next Steps:
  • Warner: “I have no idea... That’s one of the questions we’re going to try to get answer” (regarding possible U.S. military deployment).
    [07:00] – Warner
• Historical Parallels:
  • Draws comparison with failed U.S. interventions for oil, e.g., Iraq (2003) and Iran (1953).
• Public Support Skepticism:
  • Questions whether Americans, including Trump supporters, would “want their sons and daughters in harm's way… to try to get that country’s oil.”
    [06:15] – Warner

6. Trump’s “Imperialist Whim” and Spheres of Influence

• Shift from Established Policy:
  • “It felt like that 70-year bipartisan theory... got thrown out on Saturday.”
    [08:05] – Warner
• Fears for Latin America Relations:
  • Warns this approach could “end up building up a lot more resentment in those countries against us.”
    [08:39] – Warner

7. Contradictions with Trump’s Campaign Rhetoric

• Campaign vs. Reality:
  • Warner notes the disconnect between Trump’s prior anti-interventionist rhetoric and the abrupt sequence of interventions now unfolding.
    [09:13] – Warner

8. “You Break It, You Own It”

• Post-Maduro Governance:
  • Questions viability of installing a pro-American Venezuelan leader, and the coherence of the offshore “armada” governing approach.

    “This goes back to like what Colin Powell said, you break it, you own it. Well, you kind of broke the government here, but you own it now.”
    [11:36] – Warner

9. Oil Infrastructure Realities

• Logistics of Oil Production Recovery:
  • Warns that Venezuela’s oil fields “would take two or three years to rebuild that infrastructure” even with U.S. intervention. [12:40] – Warner

10. The Greenland Scenario: Checks, Balances, and World Order

• Trump’s Greenland Obsession:
  • Warner says, “I don’t dismiss it, Sam, because…this guy will take arbitrary actions.”
    [13:44] – Warner
• Fallout for NATO and Western Alliances:
  • “Would NATO completely disintegrate? Our kind of whole sense of Western alliance be destroyed?”
    [13:53] – Warner
• Testing Constitutional Norms:
  • “If the checks and balances that were set up don’t hold, then we’re in a very different kind of country.”
    [15:22] – Warner
• International Precedent:
  • Raises the specter of Russia extracting Zelensky: “Are we going to say…well, that’s Russian law he broke?”
    [15:53] – Warner

---

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “How did this get carried out so flawlessly?”
  —Sen. Mark Warner [02:04]

• “If we can go in and extract... a leader because we feel like they’ve broken our laws, what right do we say to Vladimir Putin that you can’t do the same thing to Zelensky?”
  —Warner [03:26]

• “It was became more and more obvious from the president’s own words that this was much more about oil.”
  —Warner [05:48]

• “Our history of going in and doing regime change to protect oil hadn’t been very good. And I just don’t think the American people are going to buy.”
  —Warner [07:30]

• “That 70-year bipartisan theory of the case got thrown out on Saturday.”
  —Warner [08:05]

• “No subtlety here, no kind of like, you know, nuance on anything. And again, where does this all lead in terms of precedence?”
  —Warner [09:34]

• “You break it, you own it. Well, you kind of broke the government here, but you own it now.”
  —Warner [11:36]

• “It would take two or three years to rebuild that infrastructure.”
  —Warner [12:40]

• “If the checks and balances that were set up don’t hold, then we’re in a very different kind of country.”
  —Warner [15:22]

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:38] – How Warner learned about Maduro’s extraction
• [03:26] – Legal and geopolitical precedent concerns
• [05:48] – Oil as motivation
• [07:00] – Possibility of U.S. troops in Venezuela
• [08:05] – Trump’s shift to imperialism and spheres of influence
• [09:13] – Trump’s broken anti-interventionist promises
• [11:36] – U.S. now “owns” Venezuela post-intervention
• [12:40] – Realities of Venezuela’s oil industry recovery
• [13:44] – The viability and consequences of a Greenland operation
• [15:22] – Dangers of eroded checks and balances

---

Tone and Speaker Dynamics

• Warner is measured but blunt, referencing recent and past U.S. foreign interventions while constantly circling back to legal, ethical, and practical implications.
• Stein keeps the discussion focused and skeptical, playing occasional devil’s advocate to elicit more detailed responses.

---

Conclusion

Senator Warner emerges as a cautious skeptic deeply concerned about legal precedent, historical pitfalls, the durability of democratic norms, and the true motivations behind current U.S. foreign policy. The episode provides a sobering look at shifting American posture in the hemisphere and the unnerving speed with which previously unthinkable scenarios—like military action in Greenland—are entering serious policy debate.

---

Transcript

[Rocket Money Advertiser]

The holidays are expensive. You're paying for gifts, travel, decorations, food, and before you know it, you've blown way past what you were planning to spend. Don't start the new year off with bad money vibes. Download Rocket Money to stay on top of your finances. The app pulls your income, expenses, and upcoming charges into one place so you can get the clearest picture of your money. It shows how much to set aside for bills and how much is safe to spend for the month so you can spend with confidence, no guesswork needed. Get alerts before bills hit, track budgets and see every subscription you're paying for. Rocket Money also finds extra ways to save you money by canceling subscriptions you're not using and negotiating lower bills for you. On average, Rocket Money users can save up to $740 a year when using all the app's premium features. Start the year off right by taking control of your finances. Go to rocketmoney.com cancel to get started. That's rocketmoney.com cancel rocketmoney.com cancel.

[VRBO Advertiser]

VRBO makes it easy to claim your dream summer spot with early booking deals from homes with pools to poolside loungers. When you book a vrbo, you don't have to reserve any loungers. They're all yours. Get that early booking [e-mail] hey everybody.

[Sam Stein]

It'S me, Sam Stein. I am joined by Senator Mark Warner to discuss the situation that is currently unfolding in Venezuela. This is video for Bulwark Takes. If you are not a member, subscribe Mark Warner thank you so much for doing this, Senator. I really appreciate it. Let's just dive right into this. When did you learn that we had undertaken this operation to essentially kidnap Maduro and bring him to the United States?

[Senator Mark Warner]

Secretary Rubio did try to call me, but it was after the strike had started, so I was actually out west and he tried my old number, but he did try to reach me after the strike had started and there was already on the news that Maduro had been extracted.

[Sam Stein]

And what was your initial reaction to seeing the news?

[Senator Mark Warner]

Well, first I thought remarkable job by the military. The idea that we'd heard all these stories about the Venezuelan military and then this almost Praetorian guards that were Cubans surrounding Maduro. I still got questions. How did this get carried out so flawlessly? And second, I also first to acknowledge Maduro's a bad guy and the Venezuelan people overwhelmingly voted him out in 2024. And I think the then Biden administration missed a huge opportunity to try to push him out at that point. But all that being said, you extract a country's ruler and based upon simply a criminal charge. And again, even the kind of whole notion about doing that, I want to talk about that and what precedent it sets. But whole doing that, we're somehow using that as a reason to go in and get him and he is a bad guy. But at the same time, a week earlier or so, the president had pardoned the former Honduran President Hernandez for the exact same kind of crimes around drugs. And Hernandez had been convicted by an American court. So it was more than a little bit head scratching. And that even before we get to the, you know, the claim that they're going to run the country.

[Sam Stein]

Well, I want to get to the claim about running the country. Actually, let's do that.

[Senator Mark Warner]

Now, I think the scariest thing, we can debate the notification process and legality, which are huge issues. But you know, the precedence this sets. If we can go in and extract without talking to Congress or the American people, a leader because we feel like they've broken our laws. What right do we say to Vladimir Putin that you can't do the same thing to Zelensky?

[Sam Stein]

Well, he's tried what we have to.

[Senator Mark Warner]

Say to President Xi. I mean, the Communist Party has said for 40 years that Taiwan is a rogue breakaway province. So does that give them green lights? And you could just look at this. Could India go after the leaders in Nepal? I mean, you can take this to absurd places, but if it, all it means is a bigger country can say its laws have been violated and that gives you the right to go in and grab somebody as a leader of a smaller country around you. Boy, oh boy, where does that end?

[Sam Stein]

Well, okay, so, okay, we'll get to running the country after this first question, which is the intelligence that the administration is probably operating off of, and I just say probably because we haven't really seen anything, is that Maduro is overseeing some sort of drug trafficking ring, he's a terrorist running a cartel of some sorts. And on top of that, that the nationalization of Venezuelan oil fields represented a plundering of American oil interests. Have you seen any intel to back up any of those assertions? Do you believe there are. There's some validity to those assertions?

[Senator Mark Warner]

There is validity to the idea that Maduro was a bad leader, oppressive to the Venezuelan people. But if you look early in last year about, I think March or April, there was a national intelligence report that said, for example, the gang that always President Trump psyched trend was bad guys. But they said there was no direct tie between that gang and Maduro. And unfortunately, the intelligence professionals who reached that conclusion got fired for not bending the product. So I don't deny that Maduro's a bad guy. I'm not denying. But, you know, but the notion that somehow when the president would kind of conflate cocaine with fentanyl, for example, in the indictment of Maduro, fentanyl is not even mentioned.

[Sam Stein]

Right.

[Senator Mark Warner]

So this whole notion that we had this ironclad case, it does on the drug issue, we'll see in the, the court proceedings. But it was became more and more obvious from the president's own words that this was much more about oil.

[Sam Stein]

Right.

[Senator Mark Warner]

And you know. Yes. Were American companies had their oil expropriated dozens of years ago? Yes, I think it was. Exxon still had a legal claim. Chevron has continued to operate there. But usually these things are settled in court or you try to make the case. And I just don't believe that the American public or for that matter that Trump supporters are going to want their sons and daughters in harm's way. Boots on the ground in Venezuela to try to get that country's oil.

[Sam Stein]

Is it your expectation there will be boots on the ground? I'm only asking this because it's very difficult to get a read from the administration about what the actual next steps are here where you have Trump saying, yeah, we'll run the place, but then you'll have Rubio saying, no, we're going to administer from the standpoint of a blockade. What are you expecting at some point that there will be American troops on the ground in Venezuela in a significant number?

[Senator Mark Warner]

I have no idea. I have no idea. And that's one of the, you know, we're going to have a Gang of Eight brief this afternoon. That's one of the questions we're going to try to get answer. Yeah, but it doesn't take much for, you know, most of us all remember the same promises being made in the invasion of Iraq. Don't worry, we're going to be viewed as the good guys. The Iraqi oil is going to pay for everything. Trump says the Venezuelan oil is going to pay for everything and it's going to help the Venezuelan people. And you know, and again, if you were going to go back even more in history, it was the CIA overthrowing the at then point elected Iranian government back in 1953, all on the need to try to protect the oil fields. So our history of going in and doing regime change to protect oil hadn't been very good. And I just don't think the American people are going to buy.

[Sam Stein]

Well, what do you make of this? What do you make of this new sort of imperialist whim that Donald Trump is on, where it's not just Venezuela, but he's talking about Colombia, he's talking about Mexico, he's talking about Cuba, and we'll get to Greenland in a second. But those, I mean, what do you make of this?

[Senator Mark Warner]

That was kind of a 1950s view of the world. We're going to have these spheres of influence. We'll have ours, Russians will have theirs, China's. And I think it's been pretty much bipartisan policy for the last 70 years that we wanted to change our relationship with Central and South America and view them as partners, not as us, as the imperialists. Sure, it felt like that 70 year bipartisan theory of the case got thrown out on Saturday. And I just don't know how that is going to make America safer or frankly not just end up building up a lot more resentment in those countries against us.

[Sam Stein]

But I guess another way to look at it, and maybe, maybe we just misjudged him or misinterpreting what's happening now. But Trump, for whatever reason, was consistently talking about the need to not conduct regime change, to not meddle overseas when you have your own problems at home. And yet in the span of a couple of weeks, we could potentially see multiple operations in multiple foreign countries. And I'm not sure I understand what the through line is or why he's doing this, but maybe you have some theories of the case or you have some insights that I don't have.

[Senator Mark Warner]

Well, I'm asking you to be a psychologist. There was a setup if I've ever heard one. You know, like, I wish I had the theory of the case.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah.

[Senator Mark Warner]

You know, and again, remember on some of these, Maduro was not due fully elected. He was not elected in 24.

[Sam Stein]

And you talked about Biden needing to have done more in 2024.

[Senator Mark Warner]

But if he starts talking about Colombia or Mexico, those leaders were democratically elected by their people. Cuba, not so much, but Colombia and Mexico and again, Colombia in particular, that was our shining example under President Bush of Plan Colombia. And they aligned and they did cut back on some of the drug trade. But the one thing about Donald Trump, as we all know, and I think even as probably is a supporters, no subtlety here, no kind of like, you know, nuance on anything. And again, where does this all lead in terms of precedence?

[Sam Stein]

Well, we're here now, we're at this place now we can't deal with what happened in the past. We can look into it and gain some insights from it, but we're dealing with a situation in which we have a new interim government in Venezuela. It's the same as the Maduro government's, the vice president going forward. What kind of steps would you take considering the circumstances that we now inherit?

[Senator Mark Warner]

The one opposition figure who seemed to have the support of most of the Venezuelan people was Machado, who again, Trump kind of dismissed. And maybe he's jealous that she won the Nobel Prize and he didn't. But to kind of casually dismiss her, I mean, what kind of message does that send to the Venezuelan people? On top of that, one of the questions we always had was, you got briefed on Venezuela, kind of, what next? You get rid of Maduro? Who's next? Nobody had said that in any briefs I've been in. Well, this vice president, Lady Rodriguez, now, she's a secret capitalist or secret pro America, but that seems to be the way that again, I'm not saying Secretary Rubio, but at least President Trump has tried to represent her. And this whole notion, as you mentioned earlier, that we're going to run the country from an armada offshore, I don't have the foggiest idea how that works. I mean, this goes back to like the one Nicolin Powell, who said, you break it, you own it. Well, you kind of broke the government here, but you own it now.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, well, they would look, I guess if I had to play devil's advocate, they would say the lesson from Iraq is don't do de baathification. Keep the institutions in place and then use your pressure points to coerce them in ways that you want. Again, I don't think it works necessarily. But that would be their counterpoint to what you're saying.

[Senator Mark Warner]

Yes, that would be. And I can't think, I'm a halfway decent student of history. I can't think of a time where by simply outside influence, again, the armada off the coast can make the kind of dramatic change in a nation that is at this point, so kind of broken down and mismanaged as Venezuela. And again, go back for just one quick second on the oil. Venezuela used to be produce 4 million barrels of oil a day. It's got the biggest setup oil reserves in the world, close to 20% of the known reserves. Everything I've read said to try to get that back operating, where we could suddenly have America, all our costs paid for, and the Venezuelan people get what they deserve and need. Yeah, two or three years to Rebuild that infrastructure.

[Sam Stein]

And you can't really provide the security for American oil companies to go in there if you're just doing it from a armada. I want to, I want to just close on Greenland because I know for a while it's been sort of like a joke kind of in the background and then kind of serious, but not really. Now suddenly it's being talked about in very serious ways by the President who says we need it, we do need Greenland. Absolutely. He has said, how seriously do you take the idea that he would take over Greenland in some military operation?

[Senator Mark Warner]

That's why our system was set up to say you gotta have checks and balances. That's why the power to declare war, take over a country is invested with Congress.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, but he's not respected that. So.

[Senator Mark Warner]

But again, that goes back to. They set up the Constitution because we were tired of a one man rule. King George and the idea that he would, you know, I don't dismiss it, Sam, because as you said, this guy can take, will take arbitrary actions. But two responses on that. One is, holy crap, what would that mean? Would NATO completely disintegrate? Our kind of whole sense of Western alliance be destroyed? And on top of that, it kind of begs the other question which we're going to get a real view on this week. For all of the quiet conversations I've had with my Republican friends and I got a lot of Republican friends, are they going to actually speak up or keep rolling over? And again, kind of that may be the precedent setting and then the question of whether the norms will hold at all are the two biggest things that worry me.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, it does strike me that Green for some reason, I'm not sure why, but it does strike. Well, I know why an invasion of Greenland would be a line that I think a lot of people would raise their hand and say, absolutely not. And yet here we are where we're talking about it in very serious ways. And I do think it might potentially destroy NATO. Right. I mean, how could Denmark, how would Denmark respond to something like that? How would the euro.

[Senator Mark Warner]

Well, Denmark would rightfully have beyond the right to be pissed. And frankly, Denmark punches above its weight. The Danes and the Dutch are really good partners on a lot of issues. But, you know, what does France do? What does Germany do? I just, it seems so baffling to me. But as you said, what was viewed as a joke for a few months, to arbitrarily take that action would be crazy. But you can't take it off the table if the checks and balances that were set up don't hold, then we're in a very different kind of country. And I don't. You know, you got that hypothetical. But the other hypothetical is if next week one of the Russian services go in and extract Zelensky from Kiev, what are we going to say? Are we going to say, well, you know, we're going to push back, or are we going to say, well, that's Russian law he broke.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. No really challenging. Weird world we're in. Senator Mark Warner, vice Chairman of the Senate Intel Committee. Thank you for doing this. Looking forward to hearing what happens with the Gang of Eight briefing later this afternoon. Take care. And I appreciate you coming on.

[Senator Mark Warner]

Yes, sir.