
Loading summary
Sam Stein
Hey guys, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the book. I'm joined by Tim Miller and we're here to talk about Tesla. Some pretty poor earnings numbers in their first quarter earnings reports. Elon Musk addressing this and then also revealing in the call that he is likely to get out of Dodge in May and get out of Doge. That's pretty good, I admit. Good dad joke.
Tim Miller
I introduced my daughter to Alexander last night, Sam. She never read Alexander before last night and so loved it. What kid doesn't love it? Just kind of living vicariously through another child's horrible day. And what a grown person doesn't love that as we're about to do just, it's just like, oh no, oh no, the earnings got worse. Oh, the numbers are going down even more. Oh, he might be kicked out of dojo. Nobody likes Elon. That's too bad, isn't it? Aren't you sad for him?
Sam Stein
I'm not sad, no. I think he did this to himself. Here are the data points and then I'll get your reaction. Net income for Tesla down 71%. Musk said that they company is earning 27 cents per share. That was well below expectations of 41 cents. The thing I liked from the Wall Street Journal article of this was they said Musk quote, sigh deeply when asked to address Trump's trade war and made the case that he actually is against the terrorists. But he can only offer his advice and Trump will do what he wants. I will note the only other thing that I'll turn up to you. The reason that this is clearly a reputational matter as much as a business one is because while Tesla really struggled, it has an energy storage business as well as a software subscription business. And those two actually performed above expectations. So it was really automotive sales that really suffered. And that is basically because people just don't want to buy Teslas because they don't like the guy.
Tim Miller
You know, I just pulled up the old stock chart.
Sam Stein
It's better today.
Tim Miller
Not really. Not if you zoom out. Not if you zoom out.
Sam Stein
I was doing the 24 hours, I've.
Tim Miller
Zoomed down six months, I've clicked on the six month button and what you see here is it's like it's kind of reminiscent of my Christmas break. It's like you're skiing, you know, you're just going down the hill, you're hitting a couple moguls and then down the hill again and then a couple more moguls and then you're down another hill. You East Coast Skiers don't know about that, but in the Rockies you got a lot of different hills. You get to go down big, long, big, long, long trails there at Beaver Creek. And Elon spent some time at Beaver Creek too. Not Great. Down to 237. Let's see, what was the high there? It was the peak there. 479. That's half. That's down more than half. Quick math there. We're taping this late at night. That's not good. Not great. So you would see why some of the shareholders like, you know, I think the last time we did this, we're talking about Dave Portnoy at Barstool. Why some of them are like, maybe go back to work and maybe that is going to the Doge at some point. If they have another bad quarter here, maybe Elon, you stop tweeting and stop paying attention. Everything but your company and get back to work. Before we get to the Doge. Part of it though, there's one other fact that I was surprised you didn't share.
Sam Stein
Okay.
Tim Miller
Because I guess it cuts a little bit both ways for progressives. And that is that in addition to those two non consumer facing businesses that do well, the other thing that was making money for Tesla was the regulatory credits. Like to sell. The regulatory credits being electric vehicle company, thanks to the various stimulus packages that have been packed by Joe Biden. And there's some irony there, there's some hypocrisy there. As a former Republican, I listen to that and I kind of think maybe we don't need to be doing these anymore. Maybe this could be the moment where I could win. Some Democrats ordered my cause and it seems like the market, they did their job, you know, some subsidies to get the market going, but it seems like the market's going fine. And do we really need to be subsidizing Elon Musk's failed company right now with consumer tax credits on EVs?
Sam Stein
I don't think probably, yeah, the story of that is, goes back even further. I mean, he. It was government intervention that helped get Tesla going in the first place. Right. So we wouldn't even be that. And that's Obama era stuff. So, you know, we can have a lengthier debate about government subsidies, but clearly he has profited from the government and it's ironic that his time in the government is going to witness him suffering the most profit.
Tim Miller
Well, I'll just say maybe this could be a bipartisan. We haven't had really any bipartisan deals on the Hill. Well, I mean you know, some of the Republicans are really struggling to find any pay force for the massive tax cuts for billionaires. So, you know, here can be one pay for. We're gonna stop doing ev subsidies and you could get some, you know, spiteful liberals couple. A couple of. Jared Moskowitz might sign on to that. A couple spiteful Democrats to troll Elon to join. Come across the aisle and join you. And you know, there you go. That might just find me something to consider.
Sam Stein
Tim, what's the alternative history here where Elon doesn't Elon funds Trump, gets him into office and then stays back?
Tim Miller
Doesn't do unbelievable riches, honestly. And like, this is just really such a, such a cell phone. Right. Like, again, this is all though. There is really no alternate history though, because like this. Okay. I'm just saying, if we're going to really roll back the clock, this, this all starts probably with his trans daughter or with.
Sam Stein
Sure.
Tim Miller
Or with the social media breaking his brain. Right. Because so like him supporting Trump is. Is tied to the. So to buying Twitter and the social media breaking his brain inextricably. Right. So it's like kind of hard to imagine giving 250 million if he was not a Twitter addict. That said, had he just had like someone stolen his phone, let's say like someone just stole like his 10th baby mama. Stolen his. Stolen all of his phones and laptops and got a hammer out there. And we're just like, you're just going to sire children and sit in Tesla board meetings.
Sam Stein
Yeah.
Tim Miller
I think. Unbelievable. Because he would get, he would have all the subsidies we're talking about. They would, they would have the, the things that they were talking about doing that they got blowback on. Who knows what will happen? Like the, you know, the government contracts a for all. For the Starlinks, but then also for the fucking trucks, the cyber trucks. Right. Like you'd get.
Sam Stein
It was the State Department Cybertrucks, the Starlinks. Then we're talking about SpaceX, which gets tons of government fund money too.
Tim Miller
So, yeah, so he'd have an inside track on the white, you know, on the president, who's a very transactional person. And he'd be. I'd sure just be getting even more government subsidies and the Tesla would be doing fine. So that's a big oopsie for him, actually. It seems like to me.
Sam Stein
What are the lessons then? Don't be insane. Don't. Or. Or do. Could. Maybe the better question is, could Doge have worked out if it was done differently?
Tim Miller
Because I think you Interviewed the Canadian Doge guy.
Sam Stein
Yeah, I did. His thing was like, you have to do it like a classic consultant class, right? Like, you. You bring in, like, you know, all these consultancy people and they come in.
Tim Miller
Yeah, yeah.
Sam Stein
You. You make a bunch of Excel spreadsheets and you bring people together and you fig. And like, that's boring. And I guess it worked in Canada, maybe. I don't know if it works here, but, like, could do. Could Elon have gone to Doge and done. Done things different? I think it's fair to say now the. The book on Doge is getting close. I'm not saying it's closed. It's close to closed.
Tim Miller
Well, I don't think it's as close to as you think. I want to get to that in a second because I don't think he's actually leaving. But, but. But just. Just let's. Let's go to what we know today. Yeah, I think that, like, if you had actually put this. Is. I'm stealing this bit from Matt Iglesias, but, like, if you had. If you had given Elon a remit that was things that he actually knows shit about, you know, like. Like trade and tariffs. Like manufacturing. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Upgrading the government, making actually more efficient. Not fake efficient. Like, actually more efficient. Like, yes. How the government works, like in every department where we do paper, you know, putting it online, like all that kind of stuff. Like. Sure. I mean, I'm sure that there was. There's obviously reform officials. Obama tried this and made some progress. Like, you know, a little bit of progress. But, like, had you put real effort of tech nerds in to modernize the government.
Sam Stein
Yeah.
Tim Miller
And make more of it. And look, everybody agrees, even the liberals that are rolling their eyes at us right now who are watching this, you know, everything that government does. Great. Obviously the Defense Department could be more efficient. And you just look at any defense contracting situation that we have, what we're paying for a plane versus what Germany is. Right. Like, so, yeah, sure. Like, there are things that could have been done. Elon is not incapable of doing it because, like, he has brain worms and, like, tweets 21 hours a day and has been like, totally radicalized by Covid and transgender people and, like, hates every. Right. So, like Elon.
Sam Stein
So the alternative. Yeah, the alternative history in this world is a couple steps. Elon gets in there, says, I'm going to do Doge, but I'm also going to somehow create some silo in my business interests. Right. Like, I'm just going to step away from some of these companies, just.
Tim Miller
That was never possible.
Sam Stein
Just play along with me. And then he says, we're going to focus on a couple things. We're going to focus on upgrading the tech. Tech acquisition. I'm going to go into Department of Transportation because I know stuff about dot, like I can help out there. I'm in the business. And then we're going to sort of like, you know, go into the Pentagon as well a little bit and just figure out stuff there and just modernize the technology and the infrastructure of government and start there. And in contracting, if we can get that going, I'll build off that instead. What he does is, the first thing he does is he goes after usaid and it made no sense and it set a bad tone. A bad. And I just think, you know, and then of course, he sort of reveled in the idea of breaking stuff and doing what he did at Twitter. And then that just set everything off.
Tim Miller
In the wrong way. Yeah.
Sam Stein
So you don't think he's gone, though?
Tim Miller
I don't think he's got. So here's why I think there are two things happening and you don't. You know, I try very hard not to be the guy that's like, if you read between the lines and the 4D chess is being played. Like, I pretty much. I like when it comes to Trump and Musk, I pretty much take them at face value. Like, they're liars, but they're like transparent liars and so you can kind of tell what they're up to most of the time. I usually am not like, Trump designed the brain cells for 4D chess here. But here's. Here's a couple. There are a couple just interesting facts for Elon that are worth just thinking about here. Number one, he's obviously doing damage control. We just went over the fact that his company has stock prices.
Sam Stein
So he needs to, he needs to tell them I'm gonna be back.
Tim Miller
He's gotta tell the shareholders. Right. And most of the share. Tesla is like, weird in this way. We're like. And I don't, I don't. I guess we could do a survey of them and update what they think about Elon now. But like, a lot of the shareholders of Tesla are like Elon superfan fanboys. Right. Like, the company trades at way more than the value because people just believe in him and. Right. So. So like, him telling his shareholders, I. I'm going to come back means something to them in a way that I wouldn't like to us, like, you Know, if some, if, if Sarah had announced that Elon's going to come in and take over the bulwark, you know, operations, I think we would. That would cause a panic inside.
Sam Stein
Probably not. Not.
Tim Miller
Yeah, they'd be quitting. Yeah, they'd be quitting. Right. But. But it. For. I just.
Sam Stein
So it has my resume.
Tim Miller
Yeah. Their mindset, I think, is going to be a little different because they're Elon cult. Okay. So he's got to tell them that. Number two. And I know these guys don't care about the laws that much, but it's just, it's worth pointing out that he is a special government employee. And there's 130 day limit.
Sam Stein
Right.
Tim Miller
Which we're coming up on. But you can like, you can take a break and go back. Right. And so like, this could just be fake. Fake, fakey. I just, I think that there's a chance that this is just hooey, fooey fakie things. And Elon's like, I'm going in, I'm going to take a break, I'm going to go back, I'm going to just in vitro fertilize a couple of crypto women and I'm going to go to a couple of Tesla meetings. And then in June, I'm going to come back again and we are going to eliminate the post office. Let's talk. I don't think there's a little bit. That's not a zero percent chance, a.
Sam Stein
Little bit of a side. Because I was off. But we didn't talk about the other Wall Street Journal story about the care packages he puts together for his baby mamas and all that stuff. I was blown away by how much money he's giving each of these people.
Tim Miller
Well. And taking away, though. Giving them. Taking.
Sam Stein
Yeah, well, yeah.
Tim Miller
I mean, he was giving them a lot of money, but then taking them away if they, like, had.
Sam Stein
Yes.
Tim Miller
You have to show up to a. To a dog.
Sam Stein
There's so many. Yeah. So many parts of that story were beyond, beyond weird. Like almost. It made me. I'm kind of uncomfortable reading anyways.
Tim Miller
Deep.
Sam Stein
For another. For another point. I'm gonna just.
Tim Miller
I'm surprised it makes you uncomfortable to read a story about Elon sliding into the DMs of random women being like, well, you can't. Can I have your womb? Can I have your womb, ma'am?
Sam Stein
It's like so up. I just don't know. People like this, maybe they exist in some weird rich universe, but it's just so up. All right, I disagree with you. I think Elon's. I think Elon's getting ready to hit that. I think it's over. And sort of like a classic Washington tale in a way, right? It's like you think you're bigger than the state in the most extreme version of it, but with a few other baby mamas coming in and, like, you.
Tim Miller
Know, but it's like, you know, classic Washington tail. South African billionaire comes in and becomes deputy president.
Sam Stein
This is the same thing happened during the Chester Arthur administration. Now, the point I'm trying to make is that there's been plenty of people who come in thinking that can remake Washington, D.C. and government itself. And, you know, the breast. The. The best and the smartest and the brightest, and they had the, you know, most incredible business acumen, and they're going to do things differently. And, you know, and if only, like, people just put enough effort into it and we slept on the floor and, you know, all this. And in the end, what you discover is that it's not, you know, this. This. The city is not just about, like, outside force. It's about inside relations. And he didn't have any of that. He still doesn't. And he's pissed off a lot of people, including in this administration. And you're seeing it now, like, Sha Duffy definitely doesn't like the guy. Like, Marco Rubio clearly has pushed back on the guy. Like, all that reporting that they were like, ah, it's not really true. Of course it was true.
Tim Miller
Yeah.
Sam Stein
And, you know, Steve Bannon doesn't like the guy. And like, at some point, you got to have some relations if you want to get things done. And Elon just never bothered.
Tim Miller
Relations different. Yeah. All right. I want to give people a dessert, though. That wasn't counter. No, it is, it is. It's the bad. I want. I want to. I want to leave it more delicious. Like a second course.
Sam Stein
Sure.
Tim Miller
Of dessert. The. The return to Tesla isn't going to work. You don't think so? Oh, my God. I mean, he is in such a bad way. Like, the brand is.
Sam Stein
I think.
Tim Miller
The brand.
Sam Stein
Yeah, the brand, the brand.
Tim Miller
There's nothing you do. It's like. I don't know. I don't know. You were. You were a good kid, right? You went to Dartmouth. You were a good kid. So you might not know about this any. All the bad kids out there will get this. Sometimes you've done enough bad things and like your mother and mate. Father sometimes, but often in my case, the mother, you know, it's just like there's nothing you can say, you know, like, you're just so deep in the doghouse based on your behavior that there's just no you can do. You can go get A's. You can say, yes, ma'am, you can go to church. But, like, it's just.
Sam Stein
It's true.
Tim Miller
Too deep in the dog as. You can't get out. You can't get out.
Sam Stein
What could he do to win back the people he's pissed off?
Tim Miller
It's over.
Sam Stein
Nothing.
Tim Miller
It's over. It's over. It's gone. He's gone. And so, like this, the company's like. Like whole brand, you know, salience. Like it has evaporated. And frankly, you got to assume that the next quarter is worse because it takes. This stuff takes time to kind of cycle through.
Sam Stein
Well, yeah, and then you have the macroeconomic factors that really haven't. I mean, yes, there are some. Some of that's in this, but the brand is done for liberals at least. You will not see liberals flock to this. Most of them are trying to get rid of them. They just can't get rid of them in the secondary market. We were talking, I remember an earlier show. I forget what it was, but we were trying to think of someone who tanked his own brand and image and company as badly as this. And the only parallel I had was Subway Jared. Like, he was not. He was not selling. He wasn't selling subs after that.
Tim Miller
Papa John.
Sam Stein
Papa John? Yeah.
Tim Miller
Didn't you do some racist stuff?
Sam Stein
Yes. Yeah, I don't know if that hurt the brand, to be honest.
Tim Miller
The Papa John had a different kind of consumer makeup than Tesla. The Tesla, you know, kind of consumer profiles a little different. Yeah, that's a fair point. How we. How are we looking on Kalshi for Elon?
Sam Stein
Kalsi guess the lines.
Tim Miller
All right.
Sam Stein
Brought to you by Kalshi.
Tim Miller
We gotta get some sponsorship by Jesuit Refugee Services. They sponsored the podcast two times and I'm trying to give them free love. Now go support Jesuit Refugee Services. That's a good.
Sam Stein
Basically the same as Kalshi. They're sponsoring their.
Tim Miller
Sponsoring this gambling segment. I don't have their approval for that.
Sam Stein
All right, so I have to give you warning. The numbers have really tanked after this. Investors call Will Musk leave Doge. They have before May 1, before June 16 and then before January 1. Obviously it's going to be before January 1. All right, before May 1. What do you think the percentage is?
Tim Miller
Well, it's only April. It's April 22nd right now. Right. As we take this. So I would say pretty low, like 15%. Okay.
Sam Stein
You say 15. You overestimated it. It's only 4%. And that's because it's just two weeks. There's no way he's leaving in two weeks. Or at least you're not going to bet that he leaves in two weeks. All right. Before June 16th. So that gives us about a little less than two months.
Tim Miller
Now, I don't. Again, I'm not sure that I agree with this, but we're guessing the lines. Okay. I'm not giving you my opinion. I think that the people, the wash masses up there, I think that 70% of them think that he'll leave by June 16th.
Sam Stein
No. 32%.
Tim Miller
Wow.
Sam Stein
Still think he's going to stick around.
Tim Miller
The money's there out there.
Sam Stein
There's money to be made.
Tim Miller
There is real money to be made. I think Elon's leaving. That's interesting. Wow.
Sam Stein
All right. And then does he make it before the year January 1, 2026?
Tim Miller
It's a tough one to figure out a payout on. Like, what if he sort of just kind of dances?
Sam Stein
Yeah. I don't really know how you say, oh, he's gone. Right.
Tim Miller
Yeah. And I guess. I guess 60. Whatever. Whatever's left.
Sam Stein
Yeah. It's 48. You got it. That's close enough. All right. There is one other, but it's not about his.
Tim Miller
Kids.
Sam Stein
Will Doge and Elon Musk claim there's missing gold at Fort Knox before May.
Tim Miller
Do you remember the Fort Knox thing? They were going to go to Fort Knox. What happened?
Sam Stein
I should have put that in my piece today. That was. Yeah, that was a real fuck up. They missed that one.
Tim Miller
They're going to go to Fort Knox. Does it make you more or less curious about whether the gold is there? The fact that they haven't said anything about it.
Sam Stein
The gold is there. Dude, come on. It was like three months ago. That was pictured. Steven Mnuchin didn't like stage that. That was cow she brought to you by Kalshee.
Tim Miller
Gamble on the NBA playoffs and lose money on that. Like me instead.
Sam Stein
Yeah.
Tim Miller
It's a real man.
Sam Stein
All right, buddy. Well, it's been a pleasure. Thank you for jumping around and talking about this stuff with us. And sorry to all those Tesla investors out there, but honestly, you had it coming on this one. Blame Elon.
Bulwark Takes: Tesla Sales Collapse 71%! Elon’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, VERY Bad Quarter
Release Date: April 23, 2025 | Host: Sam Stein | Guests: Tim Miller
In this episode, Sam Stein and Tim Miller delve into Tesla's alarming first-quarter performance, highlighting a significant downturn in the company's financials.
Elon Musk addressed the poor earnings and hinted at his possible exit from his government role with Doge, raising concerns among investors and stakeholders.
The hosts discuss how Musk's reputation is adversely affecting Tesla's core automotive business, despite other segments performing well.
A critical look at Tesla's stock reveals a significant downturn, exacerbating shareholder concerns.
The conversation shifts to Tesla's reliance on government subsidies and regulatory credits, questioning their necessity in the current market.
Elon Musk's attempts to influence government sectors are scrutinized, highlighting his missteps and the resultant backlash.
The hosts explore the likelihood of Musk leaving his role with Doge, weighing investor sentiments and potential outcomes.
Reflecting on what could have been done differently, the hosts ponder alternative strategies Musk might have employed to salvage Tesla’s reputation and performance.
Concluding the discussion, the hosts express pessimism about Tesla's immediate future, especially regarding its brand image and stock performance.
Sam Stein (00:54): "Net income for Tesla down 71%. Musk said that the company is earning 27 cents per share. That was well below expectations of 41 cents."
Tim Miller (02:00): "It's kind of reminiscent of my Christmas break. It's like you're skiing, you know, you're just going down the hill, you're hitting a couple moguls and then down the hill again..."
Sam Stein (01:50): "It was really automotive sales that really suffered. And that is basically because people just don't want to buy Teslas because they don't like the guy."
Tim Miller (03:11): "Maybe this could be a bipartisan... maybe we don't need to be doing these anymore. Maybe this could be the moment where I could win."
Sam Stein (04:06): "It was government intervention that helped get Tesla going in the first place. We wouldn't have even been that without Obama-era stuff."
Tim Miller (15:05): "There's nothing you do. It's like... you're just so deep in the doghouse based on your behavior that there's just no you can do."
Sam Stein (19:26): "Blame Elon."
The episode paints a stark picture of Tesla's current predicament, attributing much of the company's struggles to Elon Musk's controversial actions and deteriorating reputation. While other segments of Tesla's business remain resilient, the automotive division's decline and plummeting stock prices signal challenging times ahead. The discussion underscores the intricate interplay between leadership behavior, public perception, and corporate performance, leaving listeners pondering the future trajectory of one of the world's most renowned electric vehicle manufacturers.
This summary is intended to provide an overview of the podcast episode for those who have not listened to it, encapsulating all critical discussions, insights, and conclusions drawn by Sam Stein and Tim Miller.