Texas and Indiana May Derail Trump’s Gerrymandering Plan

Summary

Bulwark Takes — Episode Summary

Episode Title: Texas and Indiana May Derail Trump’s Gerrymandering Plan
Date: November 19, 2025
Hosts: Sam Stein & Tim Miller

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Overview

In this episode, Sam Stein and Tim Miller dive deep into breaking developments from Texas and Indiana that threaten to upend former President Trump’s ambitious national gerrymandering plan. They discuss recent court rulings, state-level legislative pushback, the shifting political winds, and the broader implications for both parties ahead of the midterms.

Tone: Conversational, informed, sharp, and at times irreverent. The discussion is lively and filled with both strategic analysis and first-person insights.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Texas Federal Court's Redistricting Ruling

• Backdrop: Texas Republicans aimed to gerrymander for a five-seat GOP gain.
• Ruling: A federal court blocked new maps due to evidence of racial gerrymandering.
  • “[The court] basically said, you’re going to have to use the old maps for the midterms now … with one of the judges being a Trump appointee.” (01:01–01:19, Sam Stein)
• Appeal Uncertainty: Decision will likely be appealed; a stay is possible, but the outcome is highly uncertain.
• Political Fallout: Could embarrass Trump and result in Democrats gaining rather than losing seats.
  • “You could have been in a situation … if everything goes right for the Republicans, they might win, they might successfully gerrymander the country …” (02:20–03:14, Tim Miller)

Notable Quote:

“The idea that we could have gone from Republicans creating an impenetrable map for themselves, to the Democrats now potentially gaining seats … is like an unbelievable turn of events in a short period of time.”
— Tim Miller (03:49)

2. Changing Latino Political Trends in Texas

• Trump made advances among Latino voters in recent cycles, impacting GOP redistricting decisions.
• New data shows these GOP gains among Texas Latinos may not be durable, making even a partial Republican success in redistricting less certain.
  • “What looked like a five seat gain for Republicans in Texas is like maybe three or definitely like four. Some of these other seats are looking shakier.” (04:23, Tim Miller)

3. Grassroots and State-Level Backlash

• Stein reports firsthand from Austin: Texas Democrats are openly optimistic, believing backlash to GOP maneuvers is strengthening their chances.
  • “Don’t just assume that all these seats are going to go to Republicans. Like, there’s real backlash happening here in Texas … affordability, but also around what’s happening with ICE … these Latino voters … they could come back.” (04:51, Sam Stein)
• Details from the ruling highlight evidence of explicit racial gerrymandering.

Notable Quote:

“Substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 map according to the ruling.”
— Sam Stein reading from the court ruling (05:39)

4. Indiana Senate Rebels Against Redistricting Special Session

• Situation: Despite heavy Trump/GOP pressure, Indiana’s state senate voted 29–18 to delay a special redistricting session, choosing to wait until January.
  • “It was a huge rebuke. And a number of them came out … that they were not going to vote for redistricting.” (07:07)
• Governor Mike Braun, under Trump’s urging, lashes out publicly and threatens further action (including compelling senators' attendance).
  • “He says, … forced to partner with Democrats in ALL CAPS … now I’m left with no choice other than to explore all options at my disposal to compel the state Senate to show up and vote.” (07:49)

Notable Quote:

“That’s what this is heading to.”
— Sam Stein, on the possibility of law enforcement being involved to force votes (08:06)

5. Shift in Republican Courage and Momentum

• Tim Miller draws a thematic line from these developments to a potential turning point in the Republican Party’s willingness to defy Trump.
  • “People only have the courage and backbone to stand up to him if they’re not scared. … I think that that is like a noteworthy shift.” (10:04, Tim Miller)
• Miller wonders if historians might someday see this period as the start of Trump’s waning influence.

Notable Quote:

“When did the momentum inexorably start to move away from him? And it’s possible that it’s been the last week or two.”
— Tim Miller (09:47)

6. Threats and Legislative Intimidation

• Discussion of real-world intimidation tactics: swatting, threats, and public pressure against lawmakers.
  • “One of the guys, the … center leader, Bray, did have a swatting incident.” (11:25, Sam Stein)
• Stein argues that public threats can backfire, stiffening resolve among legislators.
  • “Public threats really have a way of actually stiffening people’s spines. You don’t want to be seen as bending to that shit.” (11:49, Sam Stein)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I just like to tease people. People like, you know, when I’m really riled up about something and I’m riled up about filing deadline shenanigans, it’s gonna be the biggest video.”
  — Tim Miller, on upcoming Bulwark coverage (06:33)
• “Can me and Bill be happy for one Monday? Can we just. Can you let us be happy for one month?”
  — Tim Miller (10:46)
• “I’m an emotional roller coaster. This is why people like riding with me, Sam. … you never know what you’re going to get.”
  — Tim Miller (12:28)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Texas Redistricting Court Decision: 01:01–05:20
• Latino Voting Trends in Texas: 03:45–04:51
• Austin Political Climate & Reactions: 04:51–05:39
• Key Language from Court Ruling: 05:39–06:00
• Indiana Senate Rebuke & Fallout: 06:47–08:21
• Political Courage and Republican Defiance: 09:47–10:22
• Lawmakers Facing Threats, Impact on Resolve: 11:25–12:20

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Conclusion

This episode delivers crucial, up-to-the-minute insights on how unexpected legal and political resistance in Texas and Indiana may unravel a nationwide Republican redistricting strategy previously seen as nearly unstoppable. Both hosts contextualize the news within deeper shifts in political momentum, party confidence, and American democratic norms, balancing rigorous analysis with their trademark humor and candor. The episode captures a moment where grassroots organizing, state-level independence, and judicial checks combine to potentially reshape the 2026 midterms and test the enduring power of Trumpism.

Subscribe to The Bulwark Takes for more sharp and timely analysis.

Transcript

[Tim Miller]

What do you think makes the perfect snack?

[AM PM Advertiser]

Hmm. It's gotta be when I'm really craving it and it's convenient.

[Tim Miller]

Could you be more specific?

[AM PM Advertiser]

When it's cravenient.

[Sam Stein]

Okay.

[AM PM Advertiser]

Like a freshly baked cookie made with real butter, available right down the street at am, pm Or a savory breakfast sandwich I can grab in just a second at am pm.

[Tim Miller]

I'm seeing a pattern here.

[AM PM Advertiser]

Well, yeah, we're talking about what I.

[Tim Miller]

Crave, which is anything from am, pm.

[AM PM Advertiser]

What more could you want? Stop by AM PM where the snacks and drinks are perfectly craveable and convenient. That's cravenience. Am, PM Too much good stuff.

[Sam Stein]

And hey, everybody, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bulwark, joined by Tim Miller. Look at him in what appears to be a hotel. Nice shirt. Getting ready to interview Kamala Harris.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, this is how you get ready to interview Kamala. You know, you just get into your cozy T shirt, you start to think about it. You start to think about everything, you know, everything that came before. You start to marinate, how you didn't just fall out of a coconut tree, you know, you get the product.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. Are you not eating coconuts to like prep for this?

[Tim Miller]

I am. So I'm thinking about all that, just kind of getting in the right head space. I'm also thinking about redistricting.

[Sam Stein]

Yes. Oh, wow. What a segue. What amazing turn. Yeah, we're going to talk about redistricting here. Two big stories that just popped today. It's like midday November Tuesday the 18th. The first I want to talk about is Texas because Texas was like the big get for Republicans. They made a big show. It started this whole process. They're going to redistrict. They're going to get five seats for Republicans. Anyways. Today a federal court in Texas blocked the state from using the redrawn maps. They did so because they said it was done as sort of on a racial biased level or try to racial gerryman the state. And so by two to one ruling, with one of the judges being a Trump appointee, they basically said, you're going to have to use the old maps for the midterms now before we get into. Can be appealed. It will be appealed. It can be state. It likely will be state, although who knows? But if it does hold, this would be an incredible embarrassment for Trump. Could end up meaning that the Democrats leave this entire process with an actual gain of a seat or two. So I don't know what your thoughts are on here, Tim.

[Tim Miller]

I potentially even more so. I didn't know Dave Wasserman, who is his X handle, his Twitter handle is at redistrict. So, you know, he knows a little.

[Sam Stein]

Bit about this is the authority here.

[Tim Miller]

So people can go watch that if they want to get really nerdy. But like just the broadest contours they don't get to text us about, you know, kind of just how much this has changed in the last month because it's truly a remarkable turn of events. Like the, the, the, the Republicans were in a position even with California to kind of set this up to gerrymander themselves about like a 12 seat gain in the whole country, which would have been pretty significant. And then on top of that, this Voting Rights act, which is the other kind of legal thing that's happening in addition to Texas, had that been, if that was overturned soon during a winter emergency session by scotus, then maybe additional state. You could have been in a situation where I was literally getting messages from people who know this stuff, who are nerds, who know I'm a nerd, who are like, if everything goes right for the Republicans, they might win, they might successfully gerrymander the country to.

[Sam Stein]

Even with California.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. That the Democrats couldn't do it even in a wave like that was the worst case scenario. Now that was going to be all of the Republican states going exactly how they want. It was going to be the vra. Right. So it was a worst case scenario. But just that was literally on the table like three weeks ago. And now we've had these series of actions, including Virginia, where the Democrats got aggressive and are going on offense. Maybe they will go in some other states simultaneously with just these, you know, rake steps in the red states for the, for the Republicans. You mentioned Texas. We'll talk about Indiana, the Texas situation again. Who, who knows, you know, this will the, the gerrymander text maps will probably be through in 2026. But, but like my two thoughts are this are one, the idea that we could have gone from like Republicans like creating an impenetrable map for themselves to like the Democrats now potentially gaining seats through this if this thing stayed, is like an unbelievable, I think it's an unbelievable turn of events in a short period of time. Secondly, you know, I think that Texas has a secondary problem. If you look at the Latino numbers right now, which is like what was underscoring a lot of the Texas redistricting was that was these kind of, were the maps where Trump had done a lot better down in these border, you know, heavily Latino kind of border communities, border districts that's looking a lot shakier. So even if, you know, this court ruling is not upheld and the new maps are kept, you know, what looked like a five seat gain for Republicans in Texas is like maybe three or definitely like four. Right? Like, some of these other seats are looking shakier.

[Sam Stein]

Well, I was down in Austin for the Texas Trip Fest last week and look, it's a bunch of people who don't really like Trump and they were, you know, but the talk was really about that, like when you were, when you were just shooting the shit about Texas politics, it's like two topics. One was who's going to be the Senate candidate for the Democrats? And there's a lot there. But two was what's going to, what's going to be the actual outcome of this gerrymander? And this is prior to this judge's ruling here. And to a person, they were just like, don't, don't just assume that all these seats are going to go to Republicans. Like, there's real backlash happening here in Texas primarily around affordability, but also around what's happening with ICE and things like that. And these Latino voters, they were not, you know, they gravitated towards Trump, but they didn't decamp to Trump and they could come back. So there was a lot of optimism. Again, huge pile of salt on that because these are. People are paid to be optimistic by that. But this. So this case happens. I'm going to read a little bit from the ruling because it does underscore what, why they shot it down. They said the public perception of this case is that it's about politics. To be sure, politics played a role in drawing the 2025 map, but it was much more than just politics. Substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 map according to the ruling. So again, ruling on this, it will be appealed. We likely go to the Supreme Court. The thing though is that the deadline for filing is December 6th. So there is a bit of a tight timeline. So we're going to keep our eyes neck.

[Tim Miller]

Speaking of filing deadlines, I have a fucking epic filing deadline rant coming your guys way later this week. Unfortunately, Kamala Harris is taking priority over that.

[Sam Stein]

Okay, I'm excited to understand what that's about.

[Tim Miller]

I just like to tease, I like to tease people. People like, you know, when I'm really riled up about something and I'm riled up about filing deadline shenanigans, it's gonna be the biggest video.

[Sam Stein]

Oh, is this the Chewy Garcia Thing.

[Tim Miller]

You know, tens of thousands of views.

[Sam Stein]

Okay, what will the comments be? Mixed. We'll see. I wanna talk about the Indiana story. Cause in many ways, this is way more compelling to me. So I'll set it up for you. Basically, what happened just this afternoon. So a lot of pressure is being put on the Senate, the state senators, to get ahead with redistricting. The House is fully on board, and Mike Braun, the governor, is now being just reamed by Trump to make it happen. And he's fully on board, but the state senators are not. And so they voted today by a fairly wide margin to not go into special session, which is when they were going to do the redistricting. They said, no, let's just do it in January. It was like 29 of them saying, don't want to do it now. It was a huge rebuke. And a number of them came out and just announced publicly, which they had not done to this point, that they were not going to vote for redistricting. The vote was 29 to 18. So Trump's flipping out, like he's throwing the books at these guys. And then the craziest thing happens is Mike Brown puts out a statement. The governor, he says, unfortunately, Senator Rod Bray, who runs the state Senate, was forced to partner with Democrats in all caps because he wants to do his Trump impression to block an effort by the growing number of American First Senators who want to have a vote on passing Fair Maps. Now I'm left with no choice other than to explore all options at my disposal to compel the state Senate to show up and vote. I talked to a reporter who covers this stuff. The possibility is they dispatch, like, sheriffs to bring the senators back in to vote, to just get them on the record about where they come. That's what this is heading to.

[Tim Miller]

It is crazy how far they're going to go, and especially now, I mean, given how successful the Democrats have been in pushing back. It's like even the best case scenario for Republicans is, like, is shaky. I mean, for a first midterm, based on what we saw last week, based on kind of where, I mean, anything can happen in a year. But it's like, okay, you know, it's one thing to say, oh, we're going to bring in the sheriffs as a power play to guarantee that we hold the House, it's going to be. It's another thing to do that to, like, you know, give yourself a projection of being down 12 Senate seats or 12 House seats rather, versus being down 14, you know, but Anyway, look, the Indiana story, there are two other things are just worth mentioning of it. Pence of it all. Behind the scenes, Mike Pence is obviously, you know, seeing just this is a tiny little bit of vengeance that he can have. You know, he's got limited power, but he's got a couple buddies in the Indiana state legislature and his hand is at work here. Secondarily, there is a real impact, like the last week's elections. You've been making fun of me in the slack, which is fine. About like, new optimistic, Tim, talking about how this is the end of Trump. And I don't mean it like literally in the sense that, like, Trump is going away tomorrow. Like, we have three more years of Donald Trump. Who the fuck knows what else he's going to do? My point is that, like, it is possible that when we're gray, Sam, five, ten years hence, we'll look back and be like, when did it. Like, when did his momentum stop? When did the momentum inexorably start to move away from him?

[Sam Stein]

Sure.

[Tim Miller]

And it's possible that it's been the last week or two. And this is just like, I connect that to Indiana in the sense it's just like people only have the courage and backbone to stand up to him if they, if they're not scared.

[Sam Stein]

Right, right.

[Tim Miller]

And like, and, and, and everybody's been scared of him, obviously within their own Republican Party, but up to. And including, like, CEOs and rich people and, you know, Bob Iger and like, people are just not as scared now. And I think that that is like a noteworthy shift. That's all.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, okay. I heard. I listened to you and Bill in the pod yesterday.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, yeah.

[Sam Stein]

Like, very close to climaxing. Like, just. Is it the end?

[Tim Miller]

Is it the end Bill on our fan page? So there was clamoring for Bill to start reading the Zbiotics ads.

[Sam Stein]

Does Bill need help getting over that hangover from Saturday night to, like.

[Tim Miller]

I don't think so. I think there's a reason the advertisers are targeting me. But yeah, no, me and Bill were a little bit. Can me and Bill be happy for one Monday? Can we just. Can you let us be happy for one month?

[Sam Stein]

I mean, I didn't intervene. I just wanted to make sure that people's. Look, I live life expecting the worst, and then when I get something that's not the worst, it feels great. But I'm always not going to, like, get upset because I totally anticipate the worst. And I fully expect that the Indiana Senate Republicans are going to Say, oh, this is too much. Fine, we'll vote for it. Whatever. But, you know, it is. I will say it is notable that this. I mean, they're throwing everything they can at these guys and they are threatening them. I mean, one of the guys, the.

[Tim Miller]

The.

[Sam Stein]

The center leader, Bray, did have a. I think it was a swatting incident. Yeah, he was the swatting incident. Marjorie Taylor Greene was the pizza deliveries. But, yeah, like, this is real shit. Like, these are real threats. I'm not trying to make light of them. I think that the threats actually don't work because two things. One is, I think it's like the public threats really have a way of actually stiffening people's spines. You don't want to be seen as bending to that shit because it just invites more of that behavior. And two is, I think, you know, it's strength in numbers, really. Right. Like, once you see that if you stand up to Trump and it can work once, then other people are going to take that cue. And so that's why I was talking to Joe Perdicone about this. But the Epstein stuff, it's like the, you know, there is a significance, obviously, to the revelation of the files themselves, but there's also a real significance to the fact that four people did stand up to all the pressure and prevailed, because it's just going to invite that type of behavior in the future.

[Tim Miller]

I'm with you on all that. I just don't know why you can't. Can't be as encouraged by the stiffened spines as I am. But that's okay.

[Sam Stein]

I'm encouraged.

[Tim Miller]

I'm an emotional roller coaster. This is why people like riding with me, Sam. It's like, you know, it's just like, you're up.

[Sam Stein]

The highs are so high, the lows.

[Tim Miller]

Are so high, you never know what you're going to get. You know, when you download the Bulwark take.

[Sam Stein]

Well, I usually do, because when you edit Bill, it's going to be something about the, you know, the Federalist Papers, followed by oh, my God, we're on autocracy, followed by Let me get into Trump's head for a second. And that's what you're gonna get, but it's worth it. Subscribe to the feed.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Sam Stein]

All right.

[Tim Miller]

Plus Churchill.

[Sam Stein]

Hey, good luck tonight, buddy. Have fun with Kamala. Looking forward to the pod. And for those who are watching, thank you for handling me and Tim. Go dorky on redistricting for a little bit. Appreciate that. And subscribe to the feed.

[Tim Miller]

See you soon.