Bulwark Takes — Episode Summary

Episode Title: Texas and Indiana May Derail Trump’s Gerrymandering Plan
Date: November 19, 2025
Hosts: Sam Stein & Tim Miller

Overview

In this episode, Sam Stein and Tim Miller dive deep into breaking developments from Texas and Indiana that threaten to upend former President Trump’s ambitious national gerrymandering plan. They discuss recent court rulings, state-level legislative pushback, the shifting political winds, and the broader implications for both parties ahead of the midterms.

Tone: Conversational, informed, sharp, and at times irreverent. The discussion is lively and filled with both strategic analysis and first-person insights.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Texas Federal Court's Redistricting Ruling

• Backdrop: Texas Republicans aimed to gerrymander for a five-seat GOP gain.
• Ruling: A federal court blocked new maps due to evidence of racial gerrymandering.
  • “[The court] basically said, you’re going to have to use the old maps for the midterms now … with one of the judges being a Trump appointee.” (01:01–01:19, Sam Stein)
• Appeal Uncertainty: Decision will likely be appealed; a stay is possible, but the outcome is highly uncertain.
• Political Fallout: Could embarrass Trump and result in Democrats gaining rather than losing seats.
  • “You could have been in a situation … if everything goes right for the Republicans, they might win, they might successfully gerrymander the country …” (02:20–03:14, Tim Miller)

Notable Quote:

“The idea that we could have gone from Republicans creating an impenetrable map for themselves, to the Democrats now potentially gaining seats … is like an unbelievable turn of events in a short period of time.”
— Tim Miller (03:49)

2. Changing Latino Political Trends in Texas

• Trump made advances among Latino voters in recent cycles, impacting GOP redistricting decisions.
• New data shows these GOP gains among Texas Latinos may not be durable, making even a partial Republican success in redistricting less certain.
  • “What looked like a five seat gain for Republicans in Texas is like maybe three or definitely like four. Some of these other seats are looking shakier.” (04:23, Tim Miller)

3. Grassroots and State-Level Backlash

• Stein reports firsthand from Austin: Texas Democrats are openly optimistic, believing backlash to GOP maneuvers is strengthening their chances.
  • “Don’t just assume that all these seats are going to go to Republicans. Like, there’s real backlash happening here in Texas … affordability, but also around what’s happening with ICE … these Latino voters … they could come back.” (04:51, Sam Stein)
• Details from the ruling highlight evidence of explicit racial gerrymandering.

Notable Quote:

“Substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 map according to the ruling.”
— Sam Stein reading from the court ruling (05:39)

4. Indiana Senate Rebels Against Redistricting Special Session

• Situation: Despite heavy Trump/GOP pressure, Indiana’s state senate voted 29–18 to delay a special redistricting session, choosing to wait until January.
  • “It was a huge rebuke. And a number of them came out … that they were not going to vote for redistricting.” (07:07)
• Governor Mike Braun, under Trump’s urging, lashes out publicly and threatens further action (including compelling senators' attendance).
  • “He says, … forced to partner with Democrats in ALL CAPS … now I’m left with no choice other than to explore all options at my disposal to compel the state Senate to show up and vote.” (07:49)

Notable Quote:

“That’s what this is heading to.”
— Sam Stein, on the possibility of law enforcement being involved to force votes (08:06)

5. Shift in Republican Courage and Momentum

• Tim Miller draws a thematic line from these developments to a potential turning point in the Republican Party’s willingness to defy Trump.
  • “People only have the courage and backbone to stand up to him if they’re not scared. … I think that that is like a noteworthy shift.” (10:04, Tim Miller)
• Miller wonders if historians might someday see this period as the start of Trump’s waning influence.

Notable Quote:

“When did the momentum inexorably start to move away from him? And it’s possible that it’s been the last week or two.”
— Tim Miller (09:47)

6. Threats and Legislative Intimidation

• Discussion of real-world intimidation tactics: swatting, threats, and public pressure against lawmakers.
  • “One of the guys, the … center leader, Bray, did have a swatting incident.” (11:25, Sam Stein)
• Stein argues that public threats can backfire, stiffening resolve among legislators.
  • “Public threats really have a way of actually stiffening people’s spines. You don’t want to be seen as bending to that shit.” (11:49, Sam Stein)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I just like to tease people. People like, you know, when I’m really riled up about something and I’m riled up about filing deadline shenanigans, it’s gonna be the biggest video.”
  — Tim Miller, on upcoming Bulwark coverage (06:33)
• “Can me and Bill be happy for one Monday? Can we just. Can you let us be happy for one month?”
  — Tim Miller (10:46)
• “I’m an emotional roller coaster. This is why people like riding with me, Sam. … you never know what you’re going to get.”
  — Tim Miller (12:28)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Texas Redistricting Court Decision: 01:01–05:20
• Latino Voting Trends in Texas: 03:45–04:51
• Austin Political Climate & Reactions: 04:51–05:39
• Key Language from Court Ruling: 05:39–06:00
• Indiana Senate Rebuke & Fallout: 06:47–08:21
• Political Courage and Republican Defiance: 09:47–10:22
• Lawmakers Facing Threats, Impact on Resolve: 11:25–12:20

Conclusion

This episode delivers crucial, up-to-the-minute insights on how unexpected legal and political resistance in Texas and Indiana may unravel a nationwide Republican redistricting strategy previously seen as nearly unstoppable. Both hosts contextualize the news within deeper shifts in political momentum, party confidence, and American democratic norms, balancing rigorous analysis with their trademark humor and candor. The episode captures a moment where grassroots organizing, state-level independence, and judicial checks combine to potentially reshape the 2026 midterms and test the enduring power of Trumpism.

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