Texas GOP Is Trying To TAKE 5 House Seats (w/ Ally Mutnick)

Summary

Bulwark Takes: Texas GOP Is Trying To TAKE 5 House Seats (w/ Ally Mutnick) Release Date: July 31, 2025

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, host Sam Stein engages in a compelling discussion with guest Ally Mutnick from Punchbowl, delving deep into the recent Texas redistricting efforts spearheaded by the Republican Party. The conversation navigates through the intricacies of the new congressional map, its implications for both parties, and the broader national landscape of political maneuvering.

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1. Overview of Texas Redistricting

Ally Mutnick opens the discussion by outlining the newly unveiled congressional map in Texas, highlighting the significant shift it represents for the state's political landscape.

“Under this map, the goal, and I think it is probable that Republicans can hit 30 seats and Democrats will be relegated to eight. So that is a five seat gain for Republicans.” [01:23]

This substantial redistricting marks a strategic move by the GOP to solidify their dominance in Texas, potentially reshaping the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives.

2. Republican Strategy and Motivation

Mutnick provides insights into the driving forces behind the Republican push for redistricting, emphasizing the influence of prominent figures and the lack of initial enthusiasm within the party.

“The delegation did not want to redistrict. This is not a push that comes from, you know, House leadership or the campaign committees. This is coming from Donald Trump and the White House.” [01:23]

This indicates a top-down approach, with Trump and his administration actively steering the redistricting process to benefit Republican interests.

3. Legislative Process and Potential Outcomes

The conversation shifts to the procedural aspects of redistricting in Texas, including the upcoming hearings and the likelihood of the new map's passage.

“They put out a map. They're in a special session. They're going to have hearings on this... And what should we expect to happen here?” [02:11]

Mutnick anticipates that Governor Abbott is confident in the map's passage, citing Trump's unwavering support as a pivotal factor.

4. Impact on Democrats and Legislative Challenges

Addressing the Democratic response, Mutnick discusses the limited options available to Texas Democrats and the challenges they face in contesting the redistricting.

“They have to leave their families. This is not a full-time legislature. It's a legislation.” [04:07]

The burdensome nature of quorums breaks makes it infeasible for Democrats to indefinitely stall the process, suggesting inevitable adoption of the new map.

5. Latino Voter Dynamics and Republican Confidence

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the Republican confidence in leveraging Latino voter shifts to secure additional seats.

“There is a very, you know, like, heated, ongoing debate about what that means. Latino voters in many places, really like Trump... But are they pro-Trump voters or are they, you know, now loyal Republican voters?” [07:42]

Mutnick highlights the uncertainty surrounding Latino voters' long-term allegiance, noting the potential volatility in their support base.

6. National Implications and Potential Retaliatory Redistricting

The episode broadens its scope to examine how Texas's actions might influence redistricting in other states, particularly Democratic strongholds.

“Hakeem Jeffries, the House Minority Leader, is pushing is that Democratic states are going to retaliate in kind. Blue states are going to redistrict to try to make up for what's happening in Texas...” [05:13]

However, Mutnick underscores the complexities Democrats face in implementing similar strategies due to entrenched independent redistricting commissions and constitutional hurdles.

7. House Majority Projections and Political Polarization

Discussing the broader implications, Mutnick suggests that the House of Representatives will remain closely divided, with control hinging on marginal seat shifts.

“The House for the rest of the decade is going to remain very closely divided. That's just political polarization.” [10:47]

This tight split underscores the significance of each seat and the potential for even minor changes to sway the majority.

8. Future of Gerrymandering and Independent Commissions

The dialogue concludes with reflections on the future trajectory of gerrymandering and the role of independent commissions in mitigating partisan map drawing.

“Independent redistricting commissions are very popular. They poll very well. Citizens pass them often, you know, overwhelmingly...” [13:29]

Mutnick posits that while independent commissions enjoy public support, the persistence of partisan redistricting efforts suggests a contentious path ahead for electoral equity.

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Key Takeaways

• Republican Gains in Texas: The GOP's redistricting aims to increase their congressional seats from 25 to potentially 30, pushing Democrats down to eight seats.

• Top-Down Redistricting Push: The initiative is strongly backed by Donald Trump and the White House, rather than internal party leadership.

• Challenges for Democrats: Limited options exist for Democrats to effectively counter the redistricting, with legislative quorum issues complicating resistance efforts.

• Latino Voter Influence: The GOP is banking on continued shifts in Latino voter demographics, though the stability of this support remains uncertain.

• National Redistricting Impacts: Texas's actions may prompt similar efforts in other states, but Democrats face significant structural challenges in replicating this strategy.

• House Balance: The upcoming redistricting could intensify the already close division in the House, making each seat pivotal.

• Future of Electoral Maps: Despite the popularity of independent redistricting commissions, partisan gerrymandering continues to be a formidable challenge.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• “Under this map, the goal, and I think it is probable that Republicans can hit 30 seats and Democrats will be relegated to eight.” [01:23]

• “This is coming from Donald Trump and the White House.” [01:23]

• “They have to leave their families. This is not a full-time legislature.” [04:07]

• “Isn't a sure thing?... There's a lot of Democrats want in states and in districts that Trump carried.” [07:42]

• “The House for the rest of the decade is going to remain very closely divided.” [10:47]

• “Independent redistricting commissions are very popular.” [13:29]

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This episode offers a thorough examination of the strategic maneuvers within Texas's redistricting process and its potential ripple effects across the national political arena. For listeners keen on understanding the evolving dynamics of U.S. congressional representation, Sam Stein and Ally Mutnick provide invaluable insights and analysis.

Transcript

[Sam Stein]

I'm gonna put you on, nephew.

[Ali Mutnick]

All right, unk.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

Welcome to McDonald's. Can I take your order, miss?

[Sam Stein]

I've been hitting up McDonald's for years. Now it's back. We need snack wraps. What's a snack wrap? It's the return of something great. Snack wrap is back.

[Ali Mutnick]

Hey, guys. Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bulwark, here with my pal, former colleague Ali Mutnick, now at Punchbowl. Was very reluctant to invite her on because she was so abusive to me when we worked together. But in this case, she is killing it on a very specific story. And so I. I got over it, and I invited her to talk about Texas redistricting. Ali, thank you so much for doing this. I appreciate it. Let's talk about the map, which came out today. So we've been waiting in anticipation for, like, two weeks, maybe more, for this map of Texas. And I know you're going to, like, want to get into, like, the incredibly wonky weeds, and I don't want to stop you from doing that. But start with, like, the big overview here. Like, how bad is it for Democrats? How good is it for Republicans? How excited are congressional Republicans over this?

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

Wow. Three different big questions.

[Ali Mutnick]

Okay. Take them in whatever order you want.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

All right, let's start with Republicans. Texas has 38 congressional districts. Is that too nerdy?

[Ali Mutnick]

That's perfect.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

So Republicans currently have 25 and Democrats have 13. Does that equal 38? Yes, it does.

[Ali Mutnick]

Yes.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

Good for you. Yeah. Some basic math. And under this map, the goal, and I think it is probable that Republicans can hit 30 seats and Democrats will be relegated to eight. So that is a five seat gain for Republicans. There are definitely some Democrats that are not coming back to Congress under this map. And to your question about how do congressional Republicans feel about this? The delegation did not want to redistrict. This is not a push that comes from, you know, House leadership or the campaign committees. This is coming from Donald Trump and the White House. And they've been very open about that, that they pushed for this, and there was not the appetite to do it in 2021.

[Ali Mutnick]

I want to go. I want to put a pin in that because that's. It's a really interesting subplot to this whole saga. Let's talk first about how this now proceeds from here. So they put out a map. They're in a special session. They're going to have hearings on this, I believe Friday, correct me if I'm wrong, should be about 10 or so hours of hearings on this mid cycle redistricting. And then they're going to vote on it. And what should we expect to happen here?

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

I mean, they've been having hearings already. It will have to go through the Texas Legislature. But I don't think that Governor Abbott would have called this session if he didn't think this could pass. And really what we're seeing is the power of Donald Trump to the point I just made. He wants this map. And it's hard to think of state legislatures who would defy that wish.

[Ali Mutnick]

Maybe some, but not in Texas for sure.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

Red state legislatures.

[Ali Mutnick]

Well, let's think about Indiana, which I think is kind interesting, but that's another topic for another day. Texas Democrats are like convening with Hakeem Jeffries. The options at their disposal seem fairly limited. And one of them is, or maybe the only one is just to get the hell out of the state. They did this obviously when Tom delay was pushing redistricting during the aughts, I believe. And so the expectation is that they're going to make a run for it and then we'll see what happens. But what does your latest reporting tell you on that?

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

I feel like a quorum break is very difficult for a few reasons and none of them are like particularly groundbreaking. It's really expensive. They get fined per day that they're out of the state they can send.

[Ali Mutnick]

But I could see a GoFundMe pretty much popping up within like a second on that one.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

So, okay, so maybe a GoFundMe takes care of that, but they have to leave their families. This is not a full time legislature. This is a legislation.

[Ali Mutnick]

Threaten me with a good time.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

Jeez, I hope your family doesn't watch this.

[Ali Mutnick]

No, I love my family. I'm just kidding.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

This is not a full time legislature. Like this is. All these people have other jobs and make a living in other ways than being in the legislature. There's a legislature that meets fairly infrequently. They're called back in for a special session. It's summer with their families. It's a huge financial and personal sacrifice to ask them to do it. Maybe they do, but it can't go on indefinitely. And once the quorum is back, the map goes into effect.

[Ali Mutnick]

Well, and that's what sort of happened last time, which is they left. It was big to do. You know, I think it was in New Mexico. They sent state troopers. Nothing happened. But then one of them was like, I'm done. Like I can't do this indefinitely. Or they got like a sweetheart deal to come back and vote for the redistricting. And so that's likely the outcome. And then if that were to happen in this case, you know, you could imagine Trump using even more aggressive measures to get them back into Texas. Dhs, FBI, so on and so forth. So then what are Democrat.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

What's the recourse for Democrats here in Texas itself? They'll sue, of course. There'll be lawsuits. There's lawsuits on everything.

[Ali Mutnick]

Right.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

You know, we'll, we'll see how those play out. It's a very slow process. I think the bigger question is what can Democrats do nationwide? And part of what Hakeem Jeffries, the House Minority Leader, is pushing is that Democratic states are going to retaliate in kind. Blue states are going to redistrict to try to make up for what's happening in Texas and what's going to happen in other places. And, you know, we can, we can go into that talking about getting nerdy, but there's a lot of reasons why it's much easier for Republicans than Democrats.

[Ali Mutnick]

Give us the top lines.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

So Democratic states, you know, by and large, the biggest blue states, some purple states, when they got, you know, trifecta power, the governorship. And in both chambers of the state legislature, unless you're Nebraska and you only have one chamber, they created redistricting commissions in a lot of places. The name of good governance. Let's let voters pick their politicians, not the other way around. And those in many cases were constitutional amendments. So while some of the biggest red states have to call a special session and just have their legislature come in and pass a new map, Democrats would have to actually amend their constitutions in many states in California, in New Jersey, in New York. And the timelines for doing that are really complicated.

[Ali Mutnick]

How bad?

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

It depends on the state. Like, there are some states where it's not possible. New York cannot. The New York legislature would have to pass a proposed amendment in two regular legislative sessions before it would go on to the ballot. The shots that they would be doing to try to get a new map before 2026. And some of these places would literally be Hail Mary's, right?

[Ali Mutnick]

Not literally. Figuratively. Figuratively, maybe. Literally, maybe we're Jewish. Let's go back to the Texas decision, the map that was unveiled today. I've seen some commentary that says, well, if you kind of squint, some of these districts, they're very much targeting two things. Interesting. One is they're targeting these Hispanic centric districts and essentially banking on this idea that this drift. Right word, that that Texas, Hispanics in particular have had over the past couple cycles will continue in that direction. Is that like a sure thing? In all honesty, like what, what gives them such confidence that that's going to be a sure thing?

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

So you ask a great question.

[Ali Mutnick]

Thank you.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

I think that, like, the most interesting segment of the electorate right now is Latino voters. The, the right word shift that you mentioned was so pronounced in 2024. And there is a very, you know, like, heated, ongoing debate about what that means. Latino voters in many places, really like Trump, he improved his margins in Latino districts across the country. You know, your Latino population was an incredible predictor for the presidential race and what, what kinds of swings you're going to have in those seats. But are they pro Trump voters or are they, you know, now loyal Republican voters? There's a lot of Democrats want in states and in districts that Trump carried. And so that's a question that we're going to find honestly under, under this new map and in the midterms.

[Ali Mutnick]

But it's not even just that. Right. It's like, yes, obviously it's that, like, Trump's not on the bad. He was a huge draw. He brought these people out. There was a real cultural connection that he made with them. And I think obviously everyone over, over indexed the idea that, like, harsh immigration policies would turn off this population. In fact, in some ways, it was a draw to them. You look at current polls and you do see notable drop in Hispanic support, Latino support for Trump. And I don't know if that's because of the deportation policies or if it' costs haven't gone down. But it's, it's clear, it's evident, it's there. That seems like, you know, it seems like they are making a bigger bet than. I think the conventional wisdom holds true.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

And, you know, one thing I think the map makers would say in response to that question is, you know, well, we didn't just look at 2024 data. You know, we went back and we looked at, to get wonky with you. You know, we talked about what were the presidential race margins in a district of a predictor of, you know, how could they look in the mid. So, yes, Trump did really well in a lot of these districts, but Abbott won a lot of their new districts in his reelection. Ted Cruz and Republicans are really making the case and we'll see if they're right. They may not be right, that this shift extends to more than just President Trump. And this is, you know, Latino voters identifying with the Republican Party. We don't know how that plays in post 2024. And to your point, some of the policies that Trump has been pursuing that.

[Ali Mutnick]

Affect Latino communities especially, let's say they, they get their wish, this passes and let's say frankly, Democrats can't figure out how to get out of their way and follow suit. Right. Like totally likely that that will happen. And therefore we have a five vote shift on the current slim majority that Republicans hold in the House. What does that mean for the likelihood of a flip? I've seen people describe it as not close to guaranteeing that the House stays in public hands. That seems a little bit overwrought to me. But I've seen other people say, look, they still have a huge upward battle to maintain control of the House in this climate, we're what, like a year and three months out, so who knows what we don't know. But like, if you had to kind of guess at it, what does this mean in the macro?

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

The House for the rest of the decade is going to remain very closely divided. That's just political polarization. And, and you know, we've seen only a few seats determine the majority for the last few cycles now. And the chaos that that reached in terms of legislation. So like you could make the case that any handful of five seats could swing the House. To your point of, like, how do we overlay the political environment and the fact that the President's party often loses seats in a midterm.

[Ali Mutnick]

Right.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

I don't know. But Texas is not the only state redistricting. Ohio by law has to redistrict. That could be a few seats there. President Trump's pursuing Missouri. DeSantis. DeSantis has made some comments about it in Florida. Like all of that together would be pretty formidable towards Democrats, right?

[Ali Mutnick]

No, no, no, no doubt. Like if it's all one sided in the Republican favor, obviously the more you add on, the harder it gets for Democrats. I guess a lot of people say, well, in 2018, you know, there's a 40 seat gain for Democrats. Like, is it not in the realm of possibility that we have maybe not 40, but 30? And to you, to that you'd say no, like it's less likely because we're just so gerrymandered, so polarized that the number of actual districts that can flip are so small?

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

Yes, but it also changes the farther out you get into the decade because you draw. I mean, unless you're doing mid decade redistricting, like apparently every state is, this time you're using 10 year old data by the end. And so if you're able to predict the trends correctly, then, yeah, you know, those hold up. But in 2018, we saw a lot of seats that were drawn to be Republican vote sinks, to use a nerdy term, just full of Republican voters switch because the suburbs rebelled so strongly against Trump and that created that kind of 40 seat wave. Could that happen again? I don't know. A lot of states are redrawing using fresher data and with knowledge, you know, that's very close to the political moment.

[Ali Mutnick]

Right. So the mid, the mid cycle redistricting actually works to make sure that the waves are much smaller, basically.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

It could, it could. We've never really had a full test case like this.

[Ali Mutnick]

What do we know about political backlash to redistricting? Is it a thing?

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

That's a good question. I mean, both parties like to accuse the other one of doing it and, you know, they're just following suit because someone else started it. Both, both parties gerrymander. That is, that is absolutely true. But independent redistricting commissions are very popular. They poll very well. Citizens pass them often, you know, overwhelmingly, even in some of the redder states. And so I think that, like, if you ask the average person, do you want to be in a gerrymandered district or do you want to be a competitive course?

[Ali Mutnick]

But they're not going to vote on that. Or maybe they will, I don't know. Will they vote being like, you know what I didn't like that the party rigged this election in their favor.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

Well, that's part of the argument that Gavin Newsom is going to make to California voters that he said he's going to make is that, you know, yes, we have an independent redistricting in California. Yes, it is very popular. But we cannot let Texas do something unchallenged. We're the biggest state in the country. You know, we need to put aside our commission and redraw our maps. And whether or not the citizens in California go along with that is going to answer a really big and interesting question about how people feel about gerrymandering.

[Ali Mutnick]

I suppose it's much easier for him to do it in response to something like Texas than it would be to do it proactively. Are we just done, like, is this just going to be it for now? Like, everyone's just going to do mid cycle redistricting. We're going to get rid of these independent commissions. We're just going to gerrymander every single district in the country? Is that just the future we have?

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

I mean, to get rid of the independent commissions, the voters have to agree. So that is our one.

[Ali Mutnick]

I'm talking like, 10 years. Fine, 10 years. 15 years down the road, I feel like every district is just going to be, like, hyper tailored, using the highest end AI technology. Like, it's just going to be ridiculous.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

We'll redistrict every two years. You and I will be really busy.

[Ali Mutnick]

Yeah, it's good for YouTube content, I guess.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

Yeah.

[Ali Mutnick]

Okay. Well, look, I appreciate you doing all this work. It's been honestly thrilling to read and watch. And I do recommend people follow you on all the platforms. As much as it pains me to promote a Jake Sherman operation, but thank you.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

Jake says hi, by the way.

[Ali Mutnick]

Oh, good, good. Tell him I say hi. All right. Ally Butnick, thank you so much for coming on. I really appreciate it. Everyone should check out work at Punchbowl. Everyone should subscribe to this feed, though, because you get the better summarization of the work here. Just kidding. Love you, Ali. Take care. Talk to you.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

Thanks, Sam.

[Sam Stein]

I'm gonna put you on, nephew.

[Ali Mutnick]

All right, unc.

[Unknown McDonald's Employee]

Welcome to McDonald's. Can I take your order, miss?

[Sam Stein]

I've been hitting up McDonald's for years. Now it's back. We need snack wraps. What's a snack wrap? It's the return of something great. Snack wrap is back.