Bulwark Takes – Texas Votes: Crockett vs. Talarico! How MAGA Will Texas Go?

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Date: March 4, 2026
Host(s): Tim Miller (with Sarah Longwell, Jonathan V. Last [JVL], Lauren Egan)

Episode Overview

This special live episode of Bulwark Takes dives into the 2026 Texas primary election night, focusing on the high-stakes Democratic Senate race between Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, as well as the tumultuous GOP primary between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. The Bulwark team analyzes early results, explores what each side’s choices say about their parties and the future of Texas politics, and reflects on real-time returns, special elections elsewhere, and ongoing shifts in American electoral dynamics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Texas Democratic Senate Primary: Crockett vs. Talarico

• Election Context & Early Returns

  • There was confusion and voting delays in Dallas County, potentially affecting Crockett's base.
  • Early returns: Talarico leads overall, running up large margins in Austin-area counties and showing surprising strength with Hispanic voters along the Rio Grande Valley.
  • Crockett performing well with older Black voters, particularly in Dallas and Houston, but appears to be underperforming original expectations, even in those areas.
  • [03:00] Tim Miller: "The early results here are looking pretty favorable for James Talarico. Just to be blunt. Not over yet, but if you look at the Calshi prediction markets, they've basically called it for Talarico already."

• Democratic Party Strategy & Experimentation

  • JVL and Sarah Longwell commend the fact that the party tried experiments with different messages and approaches, rather than choosing indistinguishable candidates.
  • Talarico’s campaign is characterized by outreach to Trump voters, a faith-based message, and pragmatic appeals, while Crockett ran a more "fiery, authentic, fighter" campaign—described as “shitposting” for low-info voters.

  [05:46] JBL: “It’s good to run the experiments. ... It is good to have tried an experiment in real time and have gotten a verdict on it and not to just have had like two or three candidates who are all indistinguishable from one another running in the same way.”

• Voter Divisions & Electability

  • Black and Hispanic voters appear divided, but with pragmatic motives; White Democrats focused on electability.
  • Talarico chosen for perceived greater general election viability against a scandal-plagued GOP foe.

  [09:31] JBL: “He's one of my people.”
  [10:24] Tim Miller: “I want to deracialify that a little bit ... The Democratic primary voters overall are pragmatic.”

2. Republican Senate Primary: Cornyn, Paxton & Hunt

• GOP Dynamics & The Runoff

  • Race shaping up for a Cornyn-Paxton runoff, with a wildcard from Wesley Hunt splitting the MAGA vote.
  • Paxton is described as carrying significant personal and ethical "baggage."
  • If Paxton wins, consensus is he would be a uniquely vulnerable candidate for Democrats, reminiscent of Doug Jones vs. Roy Moore in Alabama.

  [06:49] Jonathan Last: “Ken Paxton, you know, and not — he's. ... It's also like a ton of corruption. This guy was actually — he was impeached by his own state at one point.”

• The “Show Your True Self” Republican Theory

  • The panel expresses preference for seeing parties nominate true representatives of their bases (i.e., MAGA-fied Republicans), rather than “moderate” placeholders, on the belief this clarity is healthier for democracy.

  [28:39] JBL: “Accelerationist Sarah is the best.”
  [28:43] Tim Miller: “That's the thing I come down to. ... Show me something that John Cornyn has voted on that was very meaningful that Ken Paxton wouldn't have, to contain Trump. He hasn't, so fuck him.”

3. The Role of Populism, Faith, and Media Savvy

• Talarico’s Media Breakout

  • Rose to prominence via viral social media moments, particularly anti-voucher speeches and faith-driven messages; boosted further after Joe Rogan appearance.
  • Tactically blends populist anti-elite rhetoric with moderate cultural cues, making him appealing across various Democratic factions.

  [33:24] Tim Miller: “Talk to us about how seriously the Democrats are taking this. ... As it looks possible that It's a Talarico vs. Paxton race. Is this like a social media buzz thing?”

• Populism and Authentic Faith Language

  • Talarico leverages his pastoral roots without “punching Trump” or the party—“all billionaires versus us” framing.
  • Panel notes Democrats often don’t “lead with faith,” but that many voters respond positively to authentic religious language.

  [20:04] JBL: “If you take the Jesus stuff seriously, it's both based and woke ... feed the hungry, clothe the naked, comfort the prisoner...”

4. Broader Election Patterns and Down-Ballot Races

• Special Elections and Democratic Overperformance

  • Notable 30-point swing toward Democrats in an Arkansas special election, perceived as further evidence of GOP enthusiasm lag and potential Democratic momentum.
  • Generational transitions: Young, progressive Democrats making inroads in primaries, such as Christian Menefee and Nida Alam (NC-4).

• Crenshaw Defeated

  • Dan Crenshaw loses his Houston-area seat to Steve Toth. The panel revels in his downfall, seeing it as an object lesson in the perils of compromised anti-MAGA Republicans.

  [45:09] Jonathan Last: “Bye bye. Dan Crenshaw, you were one of the people who did all the accommodating and this is where it got you.”

  • [44:03] Tim Miller: “Bring me a high noon. I'm texting downstairs. I'm going to have a victory cocktail. ... Let me break Dan Crenshaw.”
  • [59:45] Jonathan Last: “Do you remember when he made that ad where he was in a really tight bodysuit ... embarrassing too.”

5. What Worked—and Didn’t—for the Senate Primary Candidates

• Crockett’s “Fighter” Appeal

  • Crockett’s unapologetically direct style—fighting for Black voters, internet mudslinging—motivated a passionate base, but had limited crossover appeal.
  • Team notes her campaign struggled beyond core urban counties and did not present a theory for appealing to persuadable or cross-ethnic voters.

• Talarico’s Cross-Coalition Appeal

  • Ran up scores with Hispanic voters and white suburbanites, while not alienating progressives. Succeeded by making himself relatable and “knowable” to diverse constituencies; clear about who he is.

  [56:42] Jonathan Last: “I think with Tao Rico, even if it's when you do the faith thing, like, if you've got something that's clear for voters to grab onto so they're like, I know that person. I know what they're about. Like, I get their vibe.”

• Primary Aftermath: Unity Challenges

  • Key early task for Talarico will be outreach to disaffected Black voters and Crockett’s base following a contentious race.
  • [74:23] Lauren Egan: “Yeah, I think that's going to be one of the main things right out the gate that he's going to have to focus on... that's gonna be a major thing that he's gonna have to work on...”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Democratic Experimentation & Pragmatism
  [04:17] JBL: “If it plays out the way we think it is total vindication for the Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell view of Democratic politics going forward... It's good to try these things... It is good to run the experiments.”

• On Electability over Ideological Purity
  [10:24] Tim Miller: "Democratic primary voters overall are pragmatic... care a lot more about electability in their primary."

• On GOP Base Preferences
  [52:13] Jonathan Last: "Sarah, he's a fighter and he's more MAGA. They think that John Cornyn is a phony, elitist, establishment Republican rhino."

• On the Kamala Conundrum
  [55:08] Tim Miller: “It is what I'm calling the inverse of the Kamala paradox. ... The ones like the Bernie voters look at them like, yeah, he's not quite Bernie enough for me, but I like that cut of that guy or gal’s jib. And the moderate voters are like a little lefty for me on some things, but I, I...”

• On Crenshaw’s Defeat
  [45:09] Jonathan Last: "Bye bye. Dan Crenshaw, you were one of the people who did all the accommodating and this is where it got you."

Key Timestamps

• [00:58] Tim Miller opens the show and sets the election night scene.
• [03:00] Early results discussion: Talarico leading.
• [04:17] JBL on value of experimentation in Democratic primaries.
• [06:49] Ken Paxton's baggage and GOP chaos.
• [09:31] Discussion of racial/identity politics in the primary.
• [10:24] Tim Miller de-racializes, underlines Democratic pragmatism.
• [14:24] Down-ballot GOP chaos: Dan Crenshaw faces tough challenge, Tony Gonzalez in trouble.
• [19:57] Debates over Talarico’s “centrist” code and cross-racial coalition building.
• [33:24] Lauren Egan on Talarico’s TikTok/Instagram-driven rise.
• [35:49] Special election in Arkansas shows massive Democratic swing.
• [44:03] Tim Miller celebrates Dan Crenshaw’s defeat.
• [62:58] Discussion of generational change in Democratic primaries (NC-4).
• [74:23] Lauren Egan on the challenge of uniting the Democratic coalition after the primary.

Flow & Tone

The episode features fast-paced, witty, often irreverent banter, peppered with personal asides and inside jokes (“Kamala conundrum,” “lesbian phone tree,” “lick the boot, Dan” regarding Crenshaw). The panelists are unafraid to directly critique candidates, parties, or their own biases, regularly exposing ideological and generational tensions at play in both parties.

Main Takeaways

• James Talarico is the projected winner of the Texas Democratic Senate primary, surpassing Jasmine Crockett by successfully bridging progressive, moderate, Hispanic, and white Democratic coalitions through a savvy mix of populist and faith-based appeals, amplified by viral media savvy.
• On the Republican side, a Cornyn-Paxton runoff is highly likely, with both seen as flawed, but Paxton representing the “fully MAGA” option and uniquely vulnerable should Democrats manage to build a truly competitive effort.
• The night’s results, along with special election swings elsewhere, suggest sluggish GOP enthusiasm and improving Democratic prospects—even in traditionally red strongholds.
• Dan Crenshaw’s defeat is celebrated as symbolic of the peril facing anti-MAGA or compromising Republicans in today's GOP.
• Panelists caution against overinterpreting any one contest, but see real signs “something is happening out there,” with generational turnover, pragmatic coalition-building, and authentic campaign messaging at the forefront of political success in 2026.

Closing

For those seeking lessons for the fall—and even 2028—the Texan progressive/populist cocktail, combined with authentic cross-ethnic appeals and “go everywhere” organizing, appears best positioned for future Democratic competition in red states. The Bulwark team underscores the need for both experimentation and focus on political fundamentals—electability, authenticity, and responding nimbly to changing coalitions.

[88:30] Tim Miller: “What a night. I'll see you tomorrow on the podcast. Later, y’all. Subscribe, tell your friends.”

End of Summary