The Age of America is Over

Summary

Bulwark Takes: "The Age of America is Over" – Episode Summary

Release Date: April 5, 2025

In the episode titled "The Age of America is Over," hosts Tim Miller and JVL from The Bulwark delve into a deeply pessimistic analysis of America's current trajectory. Challenging more optimistic viewpoints, particularly those presented by fellow Bulwark team member Sarah Longwell, the hosts explore worst-case scenarios that they believe could signify the decline of American global dominance and internal stability.

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1. Introduction to the Episode

The episode opens with Tim Miller expressing his dissatisfaction with the optimistic discussions surrounding America's future. After listening to a secret subscriber-only podcast featuring Sarah Longwell, which offered hopeful strategies for American recovery, Miller felt compelled to explore a darker perspective. He proposes a discussion that focuses on the most dire outcomes for the United States, setting the tone for a candid and sobering conversation.

Tim Miller [00:00]: "I think you titled the secret podcast Dark Something. And I was like, this is going to be just what I need, some darkness to feed my darkness."

2. Critique of Optimistic Narratives

JVL responds by contrasting their viewpoints with Sarah Longwell's optimism. He acknowledges Sarah's admirable intentions but expresses skepticism about the feasibility of recovering from what he perceives as America's current downward spiral.

JVL [01:14]: "I don't believe that's likely."

Miller counters by emphasizing the lack of public awareness regarding the severity of America's situation, suggesting that societal complacency masks the true depth of the crisis.

Tim Miller [01:57]: "I don't think people have come to terms with where we're at, how bad the situation actually is right now."

3. Main Points Raised

a. Lack of Imagination and Vision

Miller introduces Anne Applebaum's "The Captive Mind," highlighting a Polish author's perspective on Eastern Europe's inability to envision alternatives beyond their entrenched social orders. This serves as a metaphor for what he perceives as America's stagnant imagination in facing its challenges.

Tim Miller [02:55]: "I think the lack of imagination right now is really kind of striking."

b. Economic Decline and Reserve Currency Status

The discussion shifts to the potential decline of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. JVL speculates that without the dollar's dominance, America could face severe financial instability, allowing other nations like China, the EU, Canada, and Australia to fill the void left by the U.S.'s diminished soft power.

JVL [06:02]: "One of the reasons that Trump likes Putin and Xi and views the Europeans as adversaries is because the Europeans are committed to liberal democracy, and he doesn't want that."

c. International Perception and Relations

Miller and JVL underscore the deteriorating perception of America on the global stage. They cite recent events, such as the State Department's withdrawal from Myanmar amidst a natural disaster, as evidence of America's retreat and the negative message it sends to other nations.

Tim Miller [14:29]: "We're sending the message to, we're sending a big middle finger to like everybody except for Putin and the Saudis and the other like, you know, oil-bearing oil fascists in the Middle East."

d. Domestic Political Dysfunction and Rule of Law

A significant portion of the conversation focuses on the erosion of the rule of law in the United States. JVL references incidents in other countries where populist leaders have undermined legal institutions, questioning why America has not followed suit. They debate the fragility of American democratic institutions in the face of rising authoritarianism.

JVL [09:17]: "He runs on, he doesn't hide the football, he just says all the stuff he wants to do and he wins again. At that point. You just simply can't make..."

e. Societal Consensus and Polarization

The hosts examine the fragmentation of American society, noting the inability to achieve consensus on fundamental issues. JVL argues that the lack of unified support for any political faction renders meaningful governance impossible, labeling society as "sick and failing."

JVL [18:10]: "I look at this American society and to me it is so decadent and foolish. I don't believe you can get any sort of consensus."

f. Education and Foreign Students

Miller highlights the exodus of foreign students from U.S. institutions as a symptom of America's declining attractiveness and the financial challenges facing universities reliant on international tuition. This trend, he argues, signals a broader disengagement between America and the global community.

Tim Miller [16:17]: "100 plus thousand foreign students or something have already gone back... they're not going to come here for the next semester."

4. Conclusions and Final Thoughts

As the episode concludes, the hosts reaffirm their bleak outlook on America's future. While acknowledging a slim possibility of recovery, they remain largely unconvinced that the country can overcome its current challenges without significant internal transformation. They emphasize the urgency of recognizing and addressing these issues before deeper decline ensues.

Tim Miller [20:39]: "Covid didn't kind of bring us together in any way and did worse, frankly, makes me not very confident in the prediction that if things go really bad."

JVL [22:16]: "We are going to die in a world that is very different than we spent the first half of our lives in."

Miller wraps up by recommending "The Captive Mind" for listeners seeking to understand the depths of their despair about America's trajectory, highlighting it as a resource for those who share his bleak perspective.

Tim Miller [23:16]: "This was perfect. This is what I was looking for."

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Key Takeaways

• Pessimism on America's Future: The hosts present a stark view of America's decline in global dominance and internal stability.

• Lack of Imagination: A significant barrier to recovery is identified as America's inability to envision and implement transformative changes.

• Economic Concerns: The potential loss of the U.S. dollar's reserve status could lead to financial instability and diminished global influence.

• Eroding Rule of Law: Political dysfunction and challenges to legal institutions are seen as critical threats to democracy.

• International Relations: America's retreat from global engagement is damaging its reputation and relationships worldwide.

• Societal Polarization: Deep societal divisions prevent consensus and effective governance, exacerbating national decline.

• Impact on Education: The departure of foreign students signals a waning attractiveness and financial strain on American educational institutions.

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Notable Quotes

• Tim Miller [00:00]: "This is going to be just what I need, some darkness to feed my darkness."

• JVL [01:14]: "I don't believe that's likely."

• Tim Miller [07:40]: "The entire world sees it."

• JVL [09:17]: "This is just one thing to sort of broadly illustrate the point that we don't have consensus on anything."

• Tim Miller [20:29]: "Covid really shook me about that notion."

• JVL [18:10]: "We are a sick and failing and degenerating society."

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Conclusion

"The Age of America is Over" serves as a cautionary discourse, urging listeners to critically assess the current state of the United States. By exploring worst-case scenarios and highlighting systemic issues, Tim Miller and JVL aim to shed light on what they perceive as imminent threats to America's legacy and global standing. Whether one agrees or disagrees with their assessment, the episode provides a thought-provoking examination of national and international dynamics shaping America's future.

Transcript

[Tim Miller]

Hey guys, it's Tim Miller from the Bulwark here with jvl. We are taping this late night because I was on an airplane listening to JBL talk to Sarah. You can go get that in our subscribers only secret podcast. You can go to the bulwark.com subscribe to get the Sarah and JBL secret podcast. But anyway, they're discussing his newsletter that was titled the Age of America is Over. It was a really great chat but I was so excited to download it for the flight because I'm in a really dark place about the age of the state of America. And I think you titled the secret podcast Dark Something. And I was like, this is going to be just what I need, some darkness to feed my darkness. And what happened was Sarah as is her want was like giving. She was clear eyed but giving a more what is, what is the hopeful way that we could recover America, that America could rebound? Like how could we fight this? And those are all great instincts, but it's just not where I am right this second. And so I was like, I want to do a darker version of this secret podcast with JVL where we discuss the worst case outcomes for the end of the age of America. So will you do that with me?

[JVL]

Sure thing, man. I mean I, I mean Sarah makes you want to be a better person and that's one of the reasons I love her. And I would follow her anywhere but I would say I. And I want to believe, I want to believe Sarah, but I found her case which essentially was we can recover. These guys are going to tear everything down. We won't ever be able to go back to what we were. But if we have a vision and a will, we can build something new. That's great. And for a couple different reasons, I, I don't believe that's true or that's wrong. I don't believe that's likely.

[Tim Miller]

Likely? Yeah.

[JVL]

Right.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, no likely. Because I sure think it's possible. And I think the thing that resonated with me that you kind of wrote was basically when you wrote the age of Erica is over, I think one of your social media posts promoting it was like, I don't think people have come to terms with where we're at, how bad the situation actually is right now because. Yeah, yeah, because like 5,000 points down in the Dow is a really bad two days. But you know, everybody's going along with their lives. They've thought that deeply about the worst case outcomes. And so as a antidote to your podcast, what I did Next on the Plight was read from this book, the Captive Mind that Anne Applebaum suggested from a Polish. A Polish author who was living through the move from the Nazis to the Commies back in the 1940s and 50s. And this was giving me what I was looking for. Okay, scratch your itch. This was. Scratch your edge. So I want to read this section.

[JVL]

Cold War Poland.

[Tim Miller]

What a boring class. I think that's where we're headed. I want to read this section, and I think it covers where I want to go with you. Okay. He is writing now from Poland about how the man of the east, the Polish, they cannot take Americans seriously because they've never undergone the experiences that teach men how relative their judgments and thinking habits are. Their resultant lack of imagination is appalling because they were born and raised in a given social order and in a given system of values. They believe that any other order must be unnatural and that it cannot last because it is incompatible with human nature. But even they may one day know fire, hunger, and the sword. I was like, yes, yes, sir, that is right, says La Milos. That is my language. Because I do. I just think the lack of imagination right now is really kind of striking. It's like. Because I just look at all this and it's like the world is going to reorder around us without us. And I think that there's a very lack of imagination. And let's imagine how it could go. To me, I look at it, it's like. I think Sarah's outcome is just as likely as the outcome where the dollar is not the reserve currency anymore. That we devalue it so much and our instability becomes so great. That order that changes, which has major financial consequences for us that the Chinese and eu, Canada, Australia, enter the space we were in because we've totally stopped all soft power and that we retrench into kind of like a bigger hungry or turkey. Like kind of a slightly bigger turkey.

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

And. And that, to me, feels like, you know, maybe not the most likely outcome, but something that we're staring down the barrel of right now.

[JVL]

Yeah, I. The most likely outcome is probably some version of. We get through this and we. We stave off the authoritarian attempt, somehow we prevent the collapse of the rule of law in the United States, we preserve free and fair elections, and we. We enter what is essentially like the Third American Republic. And that's like the most optimistic thing I can think. Like, it's. It's 2029. It's January 2029, and we are still very much a Liberal democracy, the rule of law has held the executive branch is not able to disappear people off the streets with impunity. And, and even in that scenario, which again, is. I'm calling it most Likely, I don't actually believe that's the most likely, but I'm just, you know, I don't want to sound like I have Trump derangement syndrome or something.

[Tim Miller]

I actually do think it's probably the most likely. But in, you know, a plurality.

[JVL]

But it's a low variant. It's not the majority. Right. It's a plurality. Right. I mean, you know, when we say most likely, maybe this is like a 35% outcome. But even in that, we are now like France post World War II, we are simply a one nation among any. And not even a leading nation. We're a nation which sees ourselves as being world historically important and still has a bunch of legacy power and momentum behind it. We have a seat on the Security Council. Why does France have a seat on a Security Council? Right.

[Tim Miller]

It's just a, Just an artifact economically. Like we, we have some things that will probably, you know, we have some.

[JVL]

Things which are important sources.

[Tim Miller]

Silicon Valley, sure. Some of that, you know.

[JVL]

Sure.

[Tim Miller]

But.

[JVL]

But we don't get to dictate anything to anybody anywhere except maybe Mexico. Right, right. And the, the, the world trading order, we have to adapt ourselves to it. Does the dollar stay the world's reserve currency even in that scenario? I think a decade from now? Maybe not. I mean, I think that becomes a coin flip. If we're not the world's reserve currency, can we run budget deficits? Because are other countries willing to buy up our debt? No. Right. I mean, this is a massive reordering of America's place in the world. And what strikes me is that in America, I don't think hardly anybody has their heads around this, and the entire rest of the world sees it.

[Tim Miller]

Yes, it's a great point.

[JVL]

The entire. I mean, if people in America don't understand that the Canadians are looking at us like, I mean, the Canadians, no offense. Right. Love our Canadian neighbors and, you know, but, and, and they should be looking at us that way. Yeah, right. I mean, if any people did not watch the Mark Carney speech yesterday, he spoke for about 45 minutes, and it was a shocking to see a world leader speaking with such command over events and facts. I mean, you put him next to Donald Trump speaking, and it is an embarrassment. It's simply a national embarrassment. But also somebody speaking so frankly, because that is not typically how world leaders speak. Right. Everything is euphemism and it's guarded and hedged. And you just said that world is over. I mean, do you know how bad things have to be in diplomat speak for, for heads of state to talk like that about their neighbors?

[Tim Miller]

Also, just, also just real talk. Some of you might look at that and say, oh, well, maybe that's going to help them in the campaign because people are so mad at America.

[JVL]

That's not what this is about.

[Tim Miller]

But like, but it's just like, it's just a blunt truth. How can you look at a country that is allowing this stuff to happen, right, where Trump is just like running roughshod, tanking the economy randomly over whims and like disappearing people and breaking the law. And there's no, like, none of the other institutions are doing anything like that.

[JVL]

He was convinced of felonies and it all just went away. I mean, this is again like France just this week.

[Tim Miller]

It's below Banana Republic. Shit. And Banana Republic, they arrest people.

[JVL]

And we have seen this happen three times in the last 18 months. We saw it happen in South Korea, Brazil and now France, where there was a national leader with an incredible populist movement behind them who broke the law and the rule of law held and said get bent. It just happened to Marine Le Pen, right? And, and the world. I mean, this is again. And so why did this happen in America? And this gets to your point, Tim, it's the failure of imagination, right? The, the, the Supreme Court's failure of imagination that, well, you know, everything's going to be fine here. We just, we don't want to upset these voters too much.

[Tim Miller]

McConnell's failure of imagination, Biden's failure of imagination, really. And like a lot of big business, the big corporate, you know, folks that got along with Trump, there just is a failure of imagination just really across the board about how bad it could be. But now he's in a situation where again, so back to the Carney speech. Even if the rosy 2029 scenario comes in, how can you look at America and be like, ugh, we've got a lot that's a high trust relationship where we can do these kind of financial deals and get in these long term military and economic entanglements because the past is. Cause it's like, you look at the country like that and you're like, if this can happen, if it can go this fucking wonky over a game show host, I mean, who might come after. What if there's a recession? The Democrat comes in, there's a recession, and Then what follows, like we can't rely on those people of one of the two parties. A two party system is, is totally lawless.

[JVL]

Yeah. So what you're describing is the same dynamic for why the tariffs won't work. Right. So why aren't Trump's tariffs going to work? And by work I mean like spark a resurgence in low end manufacturing and stuff. And the reason is because in order to do that, somebody would have to make investments in factories. Right. That takes lots of capital, there's a long lead time and nobody's going to spend money on, on low margin industries and infrastructure. In a society where the rule of law and like how economics proceeds are a matter of whim.

[Tim Miller]

Who's going to work in these countries?

[JVL]

Right?

[Tim Miller]

We're fucking disappearing the working class immigrants that were not all the jobs. And obviously there'll be some American citizens, but like there's a shortage right now. There are job openings, there are manufacturing job openings in this country. We have a worker shortage. So like the whole thing is just ridiculous.

[JVL]

But this, but this is why again, even in the, the, the, the rosy scenario here, the rest of the world understands that in terms of the medium and long term planning, they absolutely have to plan around America.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[JVL]

Because America is no longer a trustworthy ally or partner. Right. America, the American people can fly and they were able to, to look past it once. Right? Once. And it's. Well, you know, that was a crazy thing that happened and nobody knew.

[Tim Miller]

He kind of lost. It was an accident, you know, he lost the popular vote, you know, but.

[JVL]

To have it happen again after the insurrection, after the convictions with the same guy and he runs on, he doesn't hide the football, he just says all the stuff he wants to do and he wins again. At that point. You just simply can't make put a.

[Tim Miller]

TV host in charge of the military. We're in a military partnership with a country that has a TV host in charge of the military. And where the Vice president's shit talking me in private text messages. I can't be in a reliable military partnership with them.

[JVL]

And where the intelligence community is compromised by their adversaries, Right. I mean Europe is still in an adversarial relationship with Vladimir Putin. And our DNI is, I'm sorry, but compromised with the Russians like this is, you know, they can't share intelligence. We have no idea what's happening at the general staff level in the armed services in America. We don't, we don't know if these new guys are trustworthy or not. It's all of these plans and these things take a long time to happen, but they're going to. They're going to happen without us. And they are going to be plans and contingencies that view America as maybe a neutral, benign presence or maybe a threat. And the fact of that, I think, carries the potential to drive us closer to the authoritarians. One of the reasons that Trump likes Putin and Xi and views the Europeans as adversaries is because the Europeans are committed to liberal democracy, and he doesn't want that.

[Tim Miller]

The last little anecdote from today that has made just again, when you're just trying to wrap your head around how the rest of the world is going to be seeing this and judging this, it's a small thing, but. So there's an earthquake in Myanmar. Oh, yeah, right. And we had three. I guess it was just like three people.

[JVL]

Three people?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, three people that were there as part of the State Department, usaid something. And we called them back. They're like, in Myanmar, supposedly helping, sleeping on a cots. And America's like, no, we are not doing that anymore. We're calling three people back. And this is just like we are spitting in the face of the people of Myanmar. And the people around the world who interact with America through that way have gotten the message that we're spitting in their face. Like, they get it. Like, they're not consuming this. Oh, there's waste. There's a lot of fraud happening. Or this is part of some American culture war with the globalists and Elon and who knows, they'll come back. So they're like, no, they see clearly that America is not interested in them anymore. And like, all of those nodes, again, just matter as far as what our role is in the world and how, what kind of power we have and how we can leverage that and how it benefits us and opportunity. And, you know, one more thing just related to this that I saw today, another thing that's just coming to me, it's like 100 plus thousand foreign students or something have already gone back. Yes. Said that they're not going to. They're not going to. They're not going to come here for the. For. They've either left this semester or so they're not coming back for next semester. So again, like, think about the most.

[JVL]

Important thing about foreign students is. Tim, tell me they pay full tuition.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[JVL]

And so one of the reasons universities in America have really loaded up on foreign students in the last decade and a half is because they wind up subsidizing all of the domestic students who are getting financial aid. So when those foreign students disappear, this is going to make it harder for finances. Like, again, all of this is so stupid. Yes.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. The waterfall factor. That's just a. On American economy and power and strength here. But then on, then who go back, you know, like, what is your relationship to America? Like, all those, you know, all this stuff, like she studied here, right. Like, and had like relationships with Terry Branstad, the governor of Iowa. Like, there's just things that happen in the 10 and 20 and 30 year where it's just like around the world. We're sending the message to, we're sending a big middle finger to like everybody except for Putin and the Saudis and the other like, you know, oil bare oil fascists in the Middle east. And like, besides the leaders of the petro states and Putin, like, everyone is getting the message that we don't give a fuck about them and so they're going to reorient without us. I just, I just, to me, I just feel so obvious and I think that it's like I wanted to talk it through with you because it's like, it does make you feel like you're going a little crazy sometimes when you're like, this thing feels so obvious to me and it like, hasn't sunk in with people yet.

[JVL]

So let me, let me explain it. I want to ask you. This is like the, one of the things Sarah and I thought about a little bit. Not thought about. That's wrong. One of the things we talked about, she talked about how again, we could, we could build something new together. And I don't think America is capable of that. No. With, with America. Right.

[Tim Miller]

With Americans together among Americans. Yes.

[JVL]

Like, you know, we emerge from this crisis and there's a new consensus to rebuild. I, I look at this American society and to me it is so decadent and foolish. I don't believe you can get any sort of consensus. We haven't had a popular vote winner go over 53% since like Reagan, I guess. Right. And it used to happen all the time. We used to be able to go like, you know, 56, 42 or something. And we have been inching away from that for 30 years and that has finally caught up with us. And that, I mean, this is just one thing to sort of broadly illustrate the point that we don't have consensus on anything. And that means that we are a sick and failing and degenerating society. And you know, even if you could get to like, oh, well, pick your great democratic liberal Person with vision. Right. For in 2019 gets elected. Okay, let's, let's pretend they get all the way up to 51 1/2% of the vote. That is not enough cushion and not enough support to build anything meaningful.

[Tim Miller]

Right? Yeah, I'm pretty much.

[JVL]

If we're going to live in this world where it's like, if we're going to live in this world where 47%, 45%, 44% of the country wants lawless illiberalism, then we are fucked and there is nothing to be done about it.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I mean, I'm more on your side of this discussion. I will say the Sarah, the one thing that, that appeals to the Sarah argument to me is like, I just, I think it's going to be so bad over the next three years. Like, I just don't think people have any fucking idea how bad it is. And I do think that there are going to be a lot of people that are blindsided by how bad it is. And maybe that badness could yield something that could come out of it. I don't think there's a zero percent chance of that. I will say Covid really shook me about that notion.

[JVL]

Me too.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[JVL]

Because again, million people were dying and even with that, it was like great. Joe Biden won by 70,000 votes in three states. Right, exactly.

[Tim Miller]

And so the fact that Covid didn't kind of bring us together in any way and did worse, frankly, makes me not very confident in the prediction that if things go really bad. But again, there were some out extenuating circumstances about the COVID and blame shifting and that came from China and all that. Right. Like, if it really is a single man, like if Donald Trump singularly orchestrates a catastrophic disaster that, that really ruins people's lives broadly, maybe that shakes something loose. I'm not like hopeful of that. I just, I don't think that there's a zero percent chance of that. But to me it's even like, okay, and then that happens and then, you know, maybe this period of rapprochement, I mean, I think about, you think about Germany would have been hard to predict in 1950 that Germany would be, you know, 70 years later, like a global, not only disrespected, but like a key partner and kind of a central partner in the free world. So, you know, I mean, like, it is, it is repairable. So again, I don't think it's a zero percent chance. I just, to me, I think that it feels unlikely right now.

[JVL]

I should say that. So when I do want to caveat. What I am talking about are things that will happen in the timescale of our lives. If you want to zoom out to 70 years, then sure, anything can happen, right? But we are looking at a project which is a multi generational project that you and I are unlikely to see the. The fruition of.

[Tim Miller]

Right?

[JVL]

And like we, we are going to die in a world that is very different than we spent the first half of our lives in. And in a world which is different than our parents ever experienced and our grandparents ever experienced, frankly. And that is very, very bracing. But to go back to your Polish author, that was once a common experience for people to be born into one world and die in another. And in America we just gotten used to the idea that. Not for us, because this is the natural state of things, right? This is liberalism and democracy and the rights of man. This is the property. This is the end of history, as Francis Fukuyama wrote. And that. That was a really interesting theory. And I think it, it simply turns out to be incorrect.

[Tim Miller]

THE Captive Mind if you're looking to get down in the dumps with me, jvo, this was perfect. This is what I was looking for. Okay, can we scratch that edge? Yeah. I needed to just really kind of marinate in the. The despair of the. The state of affairs for our beloved America. So thank you for doing that. Everybody else subscribe to the feed. Hope you enjoyed that. For more uplifting content like that.