The Bulwark is on Trump’s Naughty List

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Bulwark is on Trump’s Naughty List

Bulwark Takes – The Bulwark
Date: December 14, 2025
Hosts: Bill Kristol & Sam Stein

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Episode Overview

This episode delivers an incisive, wide-ranging conversation between Bill Kristol and Sam Stein focusing on recent developments in American and global politics, mass shootings in the U.S. and Australia, antisemitism, the Republican Party's internal frictions, the Bulwark's own encounters with political backlash, the impact of Trump-era policies (particularly the Doge budget cuts), and a moving update on pediatric cancer legislation. Throughout, the tone is candid and thoughtful, mixing serious analysis with wry humor.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Mass Shootings: Brown University & Bondi Beach

Timestamp: 01:41–08:52

• Emotional Reflections:
  The show opens on a somber note as both hosts reflect on tragic mass shootings: one at Brown University and another at a Hanukkah event at Bondi Beach, Australia.
• Media Saturation & Humanity:
  Sam Stein highlights how "ubiquitous" graphic footage has become, particularly of the Bondi Beach shooting:

  “You’re just watching it as if it’s almost a video game. It’s very... unsettling, obviously.” — Sam Stein, 02:30

• Acts of Bravery:
  Bill points to footage of a bystander bravely intervening in the attack:

  “That one very brave person who seems to have charged the armed terrorist... That was impressive.” — Bill Kristol, 02:46

• The Tragedy of Recurrent Victims:
  Stein reads from a striking report about a student who survived two school shootings:

  “The idea that this person has to go through this twice is awful.” — Sam Stein, 06:00

• Antisemitism and Lack of Progress:
  Both hosts note that, despite repeated tragedies, neither gun control nor fighting antisemitism have gained enough traction:

  “It’s not like antisemitism, unfortunately, is receding here in the US either. I’m afraid so. And it’s not like gun violence is being acted against in any serious way.” — Bill Kristol, 08:13

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2. Republican Party Troubles & Bulwark Coverage Fallout

Timestamp: 09:09–14:43

• RNC Chair Expresses Doom:
  Sam recounts a Bulwark article quoting new RNC Chair Joe Gruters, who openly admits looming disaster for the GOP in the midterms:

  “There is… an absolute disaster. … The chances are Republicans will go down and go down hard.” — Joe Gruters, via Sam Stein, 10:13

• Unusually Honest Assessment:
  The hosts discuss how rare and controversial it is for party officials to be so frank about electoral prospects.
• RNC’s Angry Rebuke:
  The RNC, angered by the piece, attacks The Bulwark and reporter Andrew Egger online:

  “Their Twitter account was calling anyone who quoted it a scumbag and an offense to journalism and, you know, a loser. And… the more attention to our piece, the better.” — Sam Stein, 12:53

• Reflection on Media & Criticism:
  Bill and Sam compare coping strategies for public blowback, with Sam joking about the value of taking hits online “at least once a month.”

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3. Being Put on the Trump 'Naughty List'

Timestamp: 15:45–17:16

• Bulwark Reporter Adrian Carrasquillo Targeted:
  Adrian was named to a White House “naughty list” for reporting on internal Trump world tensions, notably Kristi Noem’s vulnerabilities as a potential vice presidential pick.

  “Congrats to Adrian. His offense was that he reported that Christine Noem is on thin ice.” — Sam Stein, 16:12

• Confirmation of Reporting:
  Stein affirms that Adrian’s scoop on potential VP replacements has since been substantiated by other outlets.

  “It’s fairly well known... I appreciate the recognition.” — Sam Stein, 17:11

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4. Immigration, Civic Engagement, and Democratic Candidate Recruitment

Timestamp: 17:16–21:22

• Impactful Immigration Reporting:
  Adrian’s reporting is praised for deeply engaging with affected communities and not relying solely on political insiders.
• Emerging Grassroots Candidates:
  Both hosts see a parallel between today’s activism and the 2018 “wave” of nontraditional Democratic candidates, motivated by real-world impacts of Trump-era policy:

  “It feels a little like 2018 in that respect. ... There are people showing up to run who were not simply the traditional candidates.” — Bill Kristol, 19:26

• Enthusiasm as Political Currency:
  Stein observes that visible enthusiasm—evidenced by citizens volunteering to run—contrasts with the RNC’s public pessimism.

  “If enthusiasm is currency in politics… one side is running because they’re disgusted, and the other side’s leader is telling them they’re going to get clobbered.” — Sam Stein, 20:10

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5. 2026 Election Forecast & “Enthusiasm Gap”

Timestamp: 21:22–23:32

• Political Forecasts:
  Bill shares his prediction that Trump’s approval rating dropping below 40% points to possible major GOP losses in 2026:

  “If it gets into the high 30s, mid-30s, God knows, it becomes a very, very big Democratic year.” — Bill Kristol, 22:23

• Warning Against Fatalism:
  Both stress uncertainty, noting that “the Senate could be in play,” countering any assumptions of electoral inevitability.

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6. Indiana State Senate Rebuke of Trump

Timestamp: 23:36–27:39

• A Notable Republican Defection:
  The Indiana state senate's rejection of a pro-Trump, gerrymandering-driven measure is viewed as a rare, significant rebuke:

  “A majority of the Republicans in the Indiana state Senate voting against Trump… In a very red state… is really striking.” — Bill Kristol, 24:40

• High-Stakes Pressure:
  The episode details intense White House and party pressure—including threats of primary challenges and withdrawal of funds—and how the legislature held firm.
• Implications for GOP Discipline:
  Stein points out the irony that obscure state senators showed more independence than Republican US Senators:

  “The irony of these like random state senators that the White House couldn’t bully while there’s actual United States senators who have no spine whatsoever… should not be lost.” — Sam Stein, 27:09

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7. Pediatric Cancer Legislation: A Personal & Political Story

Timestamp: 27:54–33:50

• Decade-long Coverage:
  Sam outlines his ten-year reporting journey following pediatric cancer funding legislation—from its beginnings during the Obama administration, through Republican-induced austerity and, most recently, delays under House GOP leadership.
• ‘Doge’ Budget Cuts Fallout:
  Elon Musk’s aggressive “Doge” agenda led to severe federal funding cuts, with devastating ripple effects for medical research and pediatric cancer treatment.
• Human Cost – A Moving Story:
  Sam recounts a particularly poignant advocacy effort:

  “There was this one girl… she had two weeks to live… She decided she wanted to fly from Colorado and advocate for this bill instead of staying at home and dying. … They renamed the bill after her… Three hours after Senator Hickenlooper called her, she dies. … Shortly after that, they pass this thing through the House.” — Sam Stein, 31:22

• Frustration at Political Paralysis:
  Despite broad, bipartisan support and no cost, the Senate remains one vote shy, leaving crucial legislation in limbo.

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8. The Lasting Harm of Trump’s ‘Doge’ and Anti-Immigrant Policies

Timestamp: 33:50–41:14

• The Damaging Legacy of “Doge”:
  Bill and Sam lament the deep, often invisible harm caused by the Doge budget cuts—especially their chilling effect on scientific research and American academic appeal.
• Attack on Non-Native Scientists:
  Bill raises the critical question of how exclusionary policies damage American scientific progress:

  “Does Stephen Miller really think that every, all progress that we made in America in the last 30 years was from third generation and fourth and fifth generation Americans? I don’t think that’s empirically correct…” — Bill Kristol, 40:10

• Nativism as Cruelty and Idiocy:
  Bill’s memorable line on Trump-era nativism:

  “Nativism is a very unusual combination in that respect of… cruelty and idiocy.” — Bill Kristol, 41:14

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9. Looking Ahead: A Crucial Election with Many Storylines

Timestamp: 41:45–43:44

• Importance of Non-Economic Issues:
  While the economy often dominates, Bill and Sam emphasize that deeper questions about American identity, immigration, and the country’s future will also shape the 2026 elections.
• Individual Races, Individual Issues:
  Sam notes the importance of local issues—meat plant closings, targeted ICE raids—not just national narratives.

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Memorable Quotes

• On Growing Cynicism:
  “Everything is kind of colored to a degree by what’s happening in Gaza and the politics around that… I don’t have much confidence.” — Sam Stein, 07:56
• On Political Honesty:
  “Definition, the worst thing you could do after Washington is inadvertently telling the truth about something.” — Bill Kristol, 11:48
• On Political Attacks:
  “You become that because you’ve been through this. … Oh, you’re calling me a scumbag? Okay, yeah, I’ve been there before. Try harder.” — Sam Stein, 14:32
• On Legislative Paralysis: “It’s so ridiculous, this thing that’s unjectionable. … We spent 11 months… how many kids could have gotten some sort of combo therapy treatment in 11 months?” — Sam Stein, 33:27
• On the Damage of Nativist Policies:
  “The idiocy of it, just hurting our own country side of it, is what strikes me almost as much. … Nativism is a very unusual combination… of cruelty and idiocy.” — Bill Kristol, 40:55 & 41:14

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Notable Moments & Lighthearted Exchanges

• Bill’s Lighting as a Running Joke:
  Fans at home (including Sam’s mother!) weigh in on whether Bill’s on-screen lighting is “fine from our perspective.” (43:53)
• Closing on Family:

  “My mom texted me. She’s watching live. She says Bill’s lighting is fine from our perspective.” — Sam Stein, 43:53

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment Description | Start | |------------------------------------------------------|----------| | Mass shootings & antisemitism | 01:41 | | RNC panic, Bulwark backlash | 09:09 | | Trump “Naughty List”, immigration & enthusiasm gap | 15:45 | | Local candidate recruitment wave | 17:16 | | Political prognosis, 2026 forecast | 21:22 | | Indiana Senate rebuke of Trump | 23:36 | | Pediatric cancer legislation journey | 27:54 | | The damage of Doge, science, and nativism | 33:50 | | Big-picture stakes for 2026 | 41:45 | | Lighthearted closure and viewer feedback | 43:53 |

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Summary

This episode of Bulwark Takes offers a vivid, honest meditation on loss and resilience—in politics, policy, and American civic life. The hosts expertly weave the day’s grim news cycle into broader reflections on institutional rot, courage, and the difficult, often thankless work of reform. In doing so, they remind listeners of the value—and vulnerability—of truth-telling, activism, and hope, even when placed on the so-called “naughty list.”

Transcript

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[Commercial Voice]

What do you think makes the perfect snack?

[AMPM Spokesperson]

Hmm, it's gotta be when I'm really craving it and it's convenient.

[Sam Stein]

Could you be more specific?

[AMPM Spokesperson]

When it's cravinient.

[Bill Kristol]

Okay.

[AMPM Spokesperson]

Like a freshly baked cookie made with real butter available right down the street at a.m. p.m. Or a savory breakfast sandwich I can grab in just a second at a.m. pM.

[Sam Stein]

I'm seeing a pattern here.

[AMPM Spokesperson]

Well, yeah, we're talking about what I.

[Sam Stein]

Crave, which is anything from am pm.

[AMPM Spokesperson]

What more could you want? Stop by AM pm where the snacks and drinks are. Are perfectly craveable and convenient. That's cravenience ampm. Too much good stuff.

[Bill Kristol]

Hi, Bill Kristol here. Welcome to Sunday Bulwark. Very pleased to be joined by my colleague, managing editor and general big shot at the Bulwark, Sam Stein.

[Sam Stein]

Thank you, Bill.

[Bill Kristol]

And we sort of planned a kind of upbeat end of season show. Some amusing things that were happening with the Bulwark. And then there's this. Last 24 hours have been pretty grim. I mean, geez, huh?

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, as I was, I was, you know, talking to my wife about this and sort of observing it. I went to bed trying to get research and data and reporting on one terrible mass shooting and then woke up to an even more horrific mass shooting across the globe. And it's Just, it's, it's endless. It's horrible. I will say with the Bondi beach shooting in Australia, the thing that's really like shook me is just how ubiquitous the footage of it is. I don't know if you've been online, but if you scroll through Twitter right now, there's 10 minute long videos basically documenting the dead and then the police showing up and taking out the perpetrators. And you're just watching it as if it's almost a video game. It's very, I don't know, it's unsettling, obviously.

[Bill Kristol]

And that one very brave person who seems to have charged the armed terrorist, I mean, that was impressive.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, that was the lone, the lone bright spot, I suppose, is this one man who comes in and just takes the gun from this guy and points it on. Apparently this man didn't know how to operate a gun, so when he pointed at him, he didn't, I, I guess he didn't know how to shoot. And, but the idea, the bravery to do something like that, it's, yeah, I, I, I, I. That makes me, you know, proud for humanity in, in one respect and amid, you know, incredible sorrow for humanity in every other respect.

[Bill Kristol]

Well, we obviously, I mean, it sounds so insufficient even to say it, but condolences to all those, you know, affected and terrible events in both places. I mean, for me, you know, for me personally, obviously every death is terrible and one shouldn't weigh them in any kind of way. But, you know, Brown's a place I've been many times and my, a couple of colleges and universities, so, you know, it sort of has a certain, the idea of someone barging into a review session of a class and killing students. And then I'm Jewish and you are too. And we were looking forward to beginning lighting the Hanukkah candles tonight. And that's what they were doing at Bondi B. It was a chabad event, I think 2000 Jews from Australia, from Sydney, presumably assembles at the beach. That's why there's so much footage. They were all, you know, they're all there. They were all there to record a happy event. Right. The beginning of Hanukkah and then turns to a terrible event.

[Sam Stein]

I guess there's something like, yeah, I don't want to come across as, you know, being detached from real realities. You know, there's shootings every day, obviously that we don't notice that take place in not elite or, you know, very public places. Right. So every death is a tragedy. And, and, and that stays obviously true even in cases like this, I think one of the reasons these are shocking is precisely because of the places and the circumstances where they took place. Like, we don't expect a economics class at an Ivy League institution to be a place where a shooting happens. We anticipate that the celebration of Hanukkah is a joyous event and we don't expect the most popular beach in Australia to be the site of something like this. And then I guess, kind of we should at this point because the, the ubiquity of mass shootings is obviously a fatal, disgusting flaw of our society. And I was, I, I'll read this from the time. I mean, of all the things I've read, I think this one probably stood out the most. It was this piece that went up late last night. I'll just read it says at least two of the Brown University students who are on campus when a deadly shooting unfolded there on Saturday have survived school shootings before. One is Mia Treta, a junior who was shot in the abdomen during a 2019 shooting at Sagas High School in Santa Clar Clarita, California. Ms. Treda, 21, was studying for final exam in her Brown dormitory on Saturday when she learned of the attack. She had been planning to study at the Baris and Holly Engineering and Physics building where the shooting took place, but changed her mind because she felt tired. She said in an interview, quote, People always think, well, it'll never be me, said Ms. Tretta, one of five students shot in Santa Clarita. Two of them failed by a 16 year old classmate. And until I was shot in my school, I also thought the same thing. And yeah, that stood, that really stuck me. The idea that this person has to go through this twice is awful.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah. I mean, I think the one, one lesson, the one thing one might take from these high profile, if I can call this, you know, shootings, murders, horrible events, is hopefully it galvanizes people to do more, to fight them. Whether it's, you know, the gun issue here at home and other issues, mental health and so forth, and also anti Semitism and, and yeah, abroad and adhere to, of course.

[Sam Stein]

And do you believe that though, that it's going to galvanize folks?

[Bill Kristol]

I don't know. No. I mean it's been a rough. Right. When in both cases I'd say there have been plenty of times for people to do more and I wouldn't say.

[Sam Stein]

Well, especially on the, especially on the anti Semitism stuff. Right. It's like, it's such a complicated issue. It's like even hard to discuss. But I remember after the Tree of Life shooting and it was just sort of, you know, that one really, that hit because it was at a, you know, it's at a synagogue. There had been a bris happening nearby or there, I guess, at the time. And it's just a horrible, horrible thing. And I just, you know, you're like, of course this will galvanize folks and we will, you know, people recognize the scourge of anti Semitism and, and will, you know, take really concrete steps to, you know, ramp it out. But no, I mean, I, I, if anything it's gotten worse. I don't want to, I don't want to broaden it too much, but obviously everything is kind of colored to a degree by what's happening in Gaza and the politics around that. And you know, it's, it's bad. I mean, I, I have not been paying attention to Australian politics up until this morning, so I don't want to pretend to be an expert. But reading up this morning, apparently it's been a huge issue there, as I imagine it is everywhere. So I don't know, I don't have much confidence.

[Bill Kristol]

No. And on both right and left, if you can call it right and left, even if it dignify these bigots on either side and these, you know, apologists for murder on either side with those, those words. Because there's a respectable right, respectable left, obviously. But it's not like antisemitism, unfortunately is not receding here in the US Either. I'm afraid so. And it's not like gun violence is being acted against in any serious way. So. Okay. Well, it's grim and hopefully, maybe, maybe people will take some, some, some lessons from this, this terrible, this terrible event.

[Sam Stein]

We can have a, hopefully we could have a good Hanukkah celebration.

[Bill Kristol]

Yes, that would be, it'll be, it'll be, there'll be a shadow over it, obviously. Especially this for sure. No question. But, and there should be in a way. And I mean honestly, it's a good remind, It's a reminder that these things, that one what keeps hoping one gets beyond history, but one doesn't, you know, so.

[Sam Stein]

Exactly.

[Bill Kristol]

Meanwhile, it's been a busy week at the Bulwark. It's been a busy week in American politics. Let's just kind of go over some, some issues. It was Friday morning shots, which Andrew Egger and I do, and you are very active participants in an editor of each morning. Early in the morning, Andrew had an item on the Republican National Committee and quoting the new RNC chair sort of expressing despair about the 2026 midterm elections. Talk a little bit about what happened then. It was kind of amazing.

[Sam Stein]

It was just this weird situation where, you know, the chair, this guy is like going around non stop on these conservative radio programs and he's saying thing I'm trying to pull up the, the actual quotes here because I think it's worth this.

[Bill Kristol]

And the chair, just because it was.

[Sam Stein]

Joe Grutters is the chair. He's Trump's handpicked guy. Yeah, he's, he's the chair now because the, the, the old chair, Mike Watley is now running for Senate in, in North Carolina. And so they put in gruders. And here's some of the quotes and like more just quoting from him. He's on these conservative radio programs because you hit the nail on the head. There is, this is an absolute disaster. He's speaking of the midterms. No matter what party's in power, they usually get crushed in the midterms elsewhere. He says the chances are Republicans will go down and go down hard. Quote, it's not a secret. There's no sugar coating it. It's a pending looming disaster heading our way.

[Bill Kristol]

So like just to be clear, and this is in the wake of obviously the November 4th elections, the Tennessee special, which was where they lost about 1012 points, and then Tuesday's elections and for mayor of Miami and there was a one state legislative seat in Georgia where there was a Democrats.

[Sam Stein]

I mean.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah, anyway, so that's the context. He's just trying to, you can name.

[Sam Stein]

It, you can point to any special election this year. And it's been, it's been pretty bad for Republicans. And honestly, if those trends were to continue, it would be really bad for Republicans. And he's, I mean, if we're gonna be honest about it, he's historically right. Like this is absolutely true. These things happen often in midterms. In fact, the only time it's, you know, there's been a couple times where it's not happened. One was post 911 and the other ironically was the last midterms with sleepy Joe at the helm. So like, you know, Andrew's just quoting the guy. But what's notable, I suppose, about this is that you're not supposed to. You're not supposed to, what is it? Kinsey Gaffer? You know, you're not supposed to say the truth. Right?

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah, used to say that. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Sam Stein]

Definition, the worst thing you could do.

[Bill Kristol]

After Washington is inadvertently telling the truth about something.

[Sam Stein]

Right. And So I was reminded, I don't know if you remember this. I told Andrew about this in our video. But back in 20 2009, Robert Gibbs gave some briefing or no, he was on Meet the Press and he said something like, you know, it's possible that we could lose the House. You know, and people were like, apoplectic. Like, you know, Democrats lost their minds. They. They, like, how could you even concede or even entertain the notion? Of course, Robert was right. So anyways, we publish this piece, but it's a much deeper piece than just quoting the chair. It's talking to a bunch of strategists about why they are in this position, and a lot of it is because of Trump. Right? And they, they want their candidates to be able to break with Trump. Trump doesn't want that. And then the RNC sees this piece and they go absolutely apoplectic in, in ways that I loved. Honestly, I thought it was delicious. And the more attention to our piece, the better. They were, you know, their, their Twitter account was calling anyone who quoted it a scumbag and an offense to journalism and, you know, a loser. And I, you know, I live for that. So, you know, it was, it was delicious to me. And, you know, they drove more attention to our piece. Thank you, rnc.

[Bill Kristol]

I mean, they accused Andrew, of course, of, you know, terrible journalism or something. He. Literally, every quote is totally correct. Then it's radio quotes.

[Sam Stein]

What are they?

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah, yeah, there's transcript. There's audio and there's transcripts. Then they try to, I guess, get rid of. They had links to them on their website boasting about how the RNC chair is doing all this outreach, all this conservative talk radio. Then they got rid of the links. Right? They took a. Though they still exist on the radio shows, obviously, and, and so forth. And. But that was good when they, when they. Right. When they got. We. There's nothing, nothing to see here, but we're just, we're getting rid of these.

[Sam Stein]

Links just in case this stuff. You're totally. This stuff is totally great, but let's just take it off. No, it's fantastic. And then they had a bunch of conservative, you know, reporters. They, They. I clearly worked with them to try to align reporters, outlets, I should say conservative outlets, to malign our dear Andrew's reputation, which is unimpeachable. You can't do it. So, you know, it was a good, it was a fun Friday. You know, I, I think people need to just sort of like, I always encourage my reporters to, you know, get in not get into it online, but everyone deserves to like, be in the, the, you know, the thick of it and have all that incoming at least once a month. It's good for the soul to have people piling on you. I feel like. Yeah, I don't know how you feel about that.

[Bill Kristol]

It's been good for me over the years.

[Sam Stein]

Really.

[Bill Kristol]

That's why, you know, look at you.

[Sam Stein]

I think it's good 20 years younger than you should be because I'm a.

[Bill Kristol]

Little more of an ignore all the critics guy than a response to all the critics guy. But both are reasonable strategies and different.

[Sam Stein]

Well, no, you become an annoy. You become that because you've been through this. And so it's like, yeah, at certain point it's like, oh, you're calling me a scumbag? Okay, yeah, I've been there before. Try harder.

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[Bill Kristol]

Meanwhile, Adrian Parrasquillo, our another one of our colleagues who's written such a terrific newsletter on immigration, really made such a impact. And what has he been with last six, eight months? Something like that.

[Sam Stein]

Almost a year, Bill.

[Bill Kristol]

Time flies. I always think all you guys have just joined us and then it turns out, you know, time is zipping by the. He was what? Did the White House put him on some list I couldn't.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, another. Another dubious honor that I'm embrac. He was on their naughty list. I think they have this new list where they try to shame reporters who they think are, you know, terrible journalists or whatever. And Adrian made it. So. Congrats to Adrian. His. His offense was that he reported that Christine Ohm is on thin ice. Oh, God, that's an inadvertent pun there. But that, you know, they're looking to. They're upset with mostly, honestly, Corey Lendowski, who happens to be her senior advisor over at dhs, and. And that they are thinking of potential replacements. Among them, Glenn Youngkin, who is soon to be the ex governor of Virginia. Ironically, you know, or not ironically. I mean, people have now substantiated Adrian's reporting. It's. It's fairly well known. And, you know, it's like one of these things. It's like, you know, what's the phrase? The. Her dog or hollers or whatever. I don't. Whatever it is. I mean, when these people complain about these. These stories, it's like very evident that it's because they care about these stories and these stories are getting at something they don't like out there. So, again, I appreciate the recognition.

[Bill Kristol]

And Adrian's reporting on immigration has been so good. And it is an issue which just politically, they thought they could just ride forever because Borden was. Biden was bad on the border and all that. And now they're right. There is a real reaction against what ICE and the Border Patrol have been doing. And Adrian's documented that and.

[Sam Stein]

And yeah.

[Bill Kristol]

Told some of the stories. It's. It's. Yeah.

[Sam Stein]

I would just say. Yeah. On Adrian's reporting, that gnome piece was sort of atypical because.

[Bill Kristol]

Right.

[Sam Stein]

While he does do a lot of. He has a lot of politics infused in the reporting, his works really stood out because he's gone out and talked to people in the community in a way that I don't really know of many other national immigration reporters, frankly, who've done that. And so he's got all these incredible connections across the country about these communities. And his latest one. Was that the latest one, actually, I almost like more than the known one because it was talking about all these people who have been compelled to run for office.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah.

[Sam Stein]

Because of ICE and what's happening in their communities. And it's. The backlash is. Is quite real, actually.

[Bill Kristol]

Our latest piece, which people should look at on our website, subscribe to the newsletter, obviously is striking. It reminded me a lot of one thing I've been sort of thinking about and talking to people about is, you know, Democratic candidate recruitment, or recruitment is not even the right word. Who's volunteering, who's showing up to be a Democratic candidate in 2026, 2018 was so. One reason it was so strong was there were all kinds of people who were not traditional politicians who were so offended by what Trump was doing. A lot of them in the national security space. Slotkin, Spanberger, Mikey, Sheryl. To take three who've gone on to higher office now, but all of whom ran with no electoral background in 2017, 2018. You know, it's funny, afterwards, the Democratic, you know, the D trip, the Democratic House Congressional Committee was taking credit. We did a great recruiting job. All three of those just decided, I want to run. Now. To their credit, Pelosi and the committee sort of welcomed them and helped them and all this. But anyway, I feel like one thing that struck me about Adrian's piece is true in some other areas, too. People who have been affected by the NIH cuts, by the other things, even dosh stuff, the other things the administration has done, some national security people. I do feel like it feels a little like 2018 in that respect. Don't you think that there are people showing up to run who were not simply the traditional candidates?

[Sam Stein]

Oh, yeah. And Amanda Lippman at Run for Something who, whose job is to encourage people to do these types of things. I mean, they've been documenting this and there's a ton of energy on, on the Democratic side. And really, it is sort of a, a really interesting barometer of enthusiasm. Right? I mean, that's an. Enthusiasm matters for obvious reasons politically, but there's a, you know, you could donate money. That's, that's an easy, easier entry into politics. But proactively running for office is the sort of biggest extent of a show of enthusiasm for your party. In a weird way, kind of that piece in Andrew's Morning Shots do have some overlap. So if you. Enthusiasm is sort of the currency of, of politics and if you having all these people on one side who are running for office because they're so disgusted or repelled by what's happening, and on the other side, you have the chair of the party saying, we're going to get clobbered. That's a like sapping of enthusiasm. And that's why those quotes matter. We were joking while he's just telling the truth. But the reason you don't have those quotes out in public is because it's a signal to everyone else, don't run for office. Like, this is a terrible climate. Don't run for office, you're going to get killed. Just signal to donors, you know, either, you know, you might not want to give or, you know, I guess, theory, you could say give more, but it's. It's just a bad signal and it saps enthusiasm, so that's that. Hey, Bill, I like it when your lights on as opposed to coming out and on. It's better when you're on. You're brighter. I just want to say.

[Bill Kristol]

I don't know what. Oh, okay. I don't know what.

[Sam Stein]

That you look better when you're brighter. Okay.

[Bill Kristol]

Maybe that's it.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, I'm getting a little vertigo with all the shadows.

[Bill Kristol]

Really? I didn't know that. Okay. I can't tell. You know, our viewers are much more. Our viewers are less, you know, into the detailed mechanics of these things than you. They're. They're interested in the substance. You know, I don't know.

[Sam Stein]

Our producer's not and is very into the detailed mechanics.

[Bill Kristol]

The, The. I'll work on that. The, you know, it's just. I mean, on the enthusiasm thing, it's both. You could imagine a lot of, you know, fierce partisans being enthusiastic, and that's fine. And that's part of what helps. What's striking about some of these candidates, again, is that they're not. That they haven't been that political. They haven't been parts of, you know, different organization. They're just. They are citizens and who are so repulsive of some achievement in other areas, who are so repulsed by what's happening. And I think that's particularly attractive in a year where clearly people don't want traditional policy.

[Sam Stein]

Well, what's your take now? We're so. We're like, what, 10 months out before the elections? 11 months. Okay. Like how if you had to put a, you know, your finger to the wind, like, how do you feel?

[Bill Kristol]

I've thought. I mean, the single best predictor of all few elections is the approval when the president and his party control Congress. So it's unified control of government, which it is in this case. The best predictor is the president's approval. It's gone steadily down. It's what, 41ish? 41% ish. Now, that's enough for a pretty big Democratic. Big Democratic year, I'd say. If it gets into the high 30s, mid-30s, God knows, it becomes a very, very big Democratic year. And I don't think that's at all impossible. I mean, it might be that she stabilizes at 41, 42. It might be. Ticks back to 43, 44. It might be that keeps going down.

[Sam Stein]

No, you gotta think it ticks back up as the election years. Right. You sort of have the rallying around the flag.

[Bill Kristol]

Well, that's happened at times, but sometimes these years the snowball picks up a little bit. I've seen that in various, you know, 2006 and 94. And so it's sort of 2010 actually, where people did not expect, you know, 50 seat loss. So I think the Senate could be in play. I don't, I think people are being too fatalistic. And so who knows? I mean, a lot of where will the country be 11 months from now? Where will the economy be? Where will, what will the world feel like? But I feel this, I don't know, I'm a little. We should, we'll have, we'll buy each other.

[Sam Stein]

Well, let me ask you one more question.

[Bill Kristol]

I'm saying, I'm saying Trump is under 40. Okay. On election day in 20.

[Sam Stein]

One more question for you. I'm reversing the first year.

[Bill Kristol]

You don't like the lighting. Now you're.

[Sam Stein]

Well, see, now it's.

[Bill Kristol]

Now you're taking over the show.

[Rocket Money Narrator]

I don't know.

[Bill Kristol]

The sun's going on in and out. I can't control that. Called nature.

[Sam Stein]

The lights back, you look more angelic. We haven't talked about this, but what did you make of the Senate, Indiana Senate rebuke? You and I have not talked about this. No.

[Bill Kristol]

It's kind of striking. Again, I do think, I think people should be careful not to overdo it. We've seen so many times where it looks like Trump says a little rebuff from a couple of Republicans or Republicans in one state feel a little something. But no, it isn't so little. And again, if you want things were happening in no. With no context, but in the context of the elections, in the context of other people beginning to break, in the context of him losing control of Epstein, in the context of a couple of other discharge petitions passing the House and then to have in a very red state with him putting real pressure on these members and Speaker Mike Johnson calling them individually. They just say, forget it. We like our current. We did our registry the way we wanted. They may have their own private political interests. Honestly, in the kind of the current redistricting situation, they're looking at their own futures. But even so, a majority. This is, it wasn't just, you know, so the, the Epstein thing. It's four Republicans deserved out of 218 or something.

[Sam Stein]

I know, I know.

[Bill Kristol]

This was a majority of the Republicans in the Indiana state Senate voting against Trump 21 to 19 a slight majority, but still. And with all the Democrats, of course, and that's really striking. And again, Indiana, just to bring it home, not just a red state. I happen to know some people who teach at IU and stuff. It's a bit of pretty aggressively Trumpy red state. It's not Mitch Daniels Republican Party anymore, you know, and, and they've. So the fact that they deserted, I do think it's a pretty big moment. Yeah. What do you think?

[Sam Stein]

No, precisely. If it had been like five Republicans, like, well, it would have had to have been. So there's 10 Democrats. They had to get to 25. So it'd have to have been 15 or 16 Republicans. I don't know, whatever. If it had been less Republicans, I would have been like, okay, like they, they, you know, run it. They, they got lucky or Democrats got lucky here. But considering all the pressure that was put on them. And to me, this is why it mattered. This was a maximalist pressure campaign on those Republicans. I mean, they were threats of primary threats of holding federal funds. I know that they say they didn't do it, that, you know, it's very clear. The lieutenant governors told Adam ran a politico. They did threats of violence, you know, people like, you know, sending pizzas to like law lawmakers, houses, you know, really screwed up stuff. To me, if they had then turned around and passed these maps, these gerrymander maps, it would have been potentially not cataclysmic, but like, not so far away because it would have said a template of mafioso politics will work. Right? We're going to threaten everything and you bend the knee and people bend the knee. So now the question really is what happens next? I mean, I actually think in a weird, weird way, the post vote period almost matters more than the vote. Because if Trump moves on and advance moves on, then, you know, great, like they are full of shit. You called their bluff and, you know, we can breathe a sigh for relief if they don't. Then, you know, that's troubling. So I think it's actually quite a big moment. I think it's probably the single biggest Republican rebuke of Trump in this term. And the irony of these, like random state senators that the White House couldn't bully while there's actual United States senators who have no spine whatsoever on any of this stuff should not be lost.

[Bill Kristol]

That's a really good point, especially that last formulation. I would also. Yeah, I do think you're right. We're only halfway through the story. If they now they're saying Trump is, you know, claiming they're going to get primary challengers against all these people. A will they really be able to? I don't know. It's not. So it's a little easier, weirdly, to do it at the congressional or Senate level than a state legislature. I think people just think that's a little crazy. And these, these people are pretty entrenched in their seats. And if they do get challengers, do they win or lose? I think that's a very big, you know, it's a good thing to really follow over the next few months in Indiana.

[Sam Stein]

Oh yeah.

[Bill Kristol]

Because it will make a big difference. I mean, the Liz Cheney, the 2000 to defeat of Liz Cheney in Wyoming and Kinzinger leaving the House and stuff was indicative of the fact that Trump had not lost control of the Republican Party. And that turned out to be true in spades over the subsequent two years.

[Sam Stein]

Right.

[Bill Kristol]

And I do think in that respect, what happens over the next few months. Yeah. Is almost as important as what happened, what happened this week. That's a good, that's a good point. Say a word. I, I was so struck by your reporting on the pediatric cancer legislation. You've been, you've been really carrying the torch on that and explaining what, what has happened, what hasn't happened. Say a word about that.

[Sam Stein]

Well, I, I just to reveal behind the curtain here a little bit more for the audience. Bill and I were talking about things to talk about. I told him this is a 10 year story of my reporting and Bill said he would cut me off at year nine if I had to recount the entirety of it. So I'll go fast. Basically it does start in the abomination administration, just FYI. So back in the Obama administration, they cut a deal with Republicans around, you know, sequestration, which for people who are watching, just basically it's like a hard cap on discretionary spending. And one of the, one of the programs that took a real hit because of sequestration was NIH funding. And looking back now, it's like that, it felt like that was cataclysmic, but this is so much worse what's happening, putting that aside. So there was a real question about whether during the Obama years they were going to be able to actually find more money to fund things like pediatric cancer research. And there's this one bill that came up, the Gabriella Manor act, which was to, you know, spend something, $100 million, peanuts on pediatric cancer research. And it got a lot of attention because Eric Canner happened to be a personal champion of it. And so they somehow managed to get around sequestration and find the pay for. And they passed this bill. And I covered it along the way because I had been following the sequestration debate around NH running, all right, putting that in one bucket. Fast forward to 2024. This bill has expired or it's coming around to expiring, so they have to reauthorize it. And the way they reauthorize it is by putting it in this government funding bill. Right as Biden's about to leave office and Trump's about to take over. And who comes in to torpedo the entire enterprise? Elon freaking Musk. And he's just like, you know what? There's too much extraneous stuff in this bill. We got to rip everything out and just go bare bones. And one of the things that suffered was this bill for pediatric cancer research, but also a host of other bills related to pediatric cancer research. And at the time I'm like, this is insane. Like, what are you doing? You know, you're going to save 100, $200 million and shut down the government for, for that? What is the point? Long story short, they actually saved the reauthorization money at the end, but they axed a couple of other important pediatric cancer provisions, including the Give Kids a Chance act, which was a provision to allow the FDA to authorize multi use drug treatments for kids suffering cancer. Okay, I'm going to speed up now. 10 months.

[Bill Kristol]

It's also an interesting, you know, story about how inflation gets passed.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. And so the logic that Musk and the people were saying was, well, you know, if it's so important, they would just pass it on on a standalone anyway. And everyone who's in the business is like, that's not how this is going to work. That's never how this works. You have no clue how government works. Of course it didn't work that way. Ten months have gone by, no one's touching this thing, the Give Kids a Chance act. And it's just languishing, even though it has well than enough co sponsors in the House to pass and enough support in the Senate to pass. They just don't have the time to get up to the floor and so on and so forth. Then out of the blue, randomly, I get an email from one of the chief advocates a couple weeks ago, being like, it just passed the House, what, like out of nowhere? Like completely out of nowhere, it turns out, and this is a really tragic story. In September, the kids who are suffering from Rare cancer diseases go to the Hill and they, they advocate, they take on effectively the role of lobbyists. And there was this one girl who went around the Hill, she had two weeks to live. She was told, she decided that she wanted to fly from Colorado and advocate for this bill instead of staying at home and dying. And so she goes on the Hill and she starts talking to lawmakers with all her fellow advocates. And it moved a lot of people. They renamed the bill after her and then they, you know, continue to zoom with her. Senator Hickenlooper, Hickenlooper calls her. She can, she's so weak, she cannot speak at that point. So her family does all the communication and then three hours later, after Hickenlooper calls her, she dies. And you know, it's incredibly tragic. But shortly after that, they pass this thing through the House, unanimous consent. So no, no debate. Now it's at the Senate and I'm told they need to get some sort of uc which is just to get it through without any objections so that they don't have to spend 60 hours debating on this one bill, which they won't do. I'm told they're one vote short. One. It's been a week where they've been one vote short and it is December 14th. And yeah, I'm not saying they can't do it. When they come back from the new year, they could, but they want to get this thing done before the holidays and that's where we're at.

[Bill Kristol]

That's a very moving story and also revealing story about government in certain ways, I suppose.

[Sam Stein]

It's so ridiculous this thing that's unjectionable. It doesn't even cost money. It's like got to pay for. We spent 11 months. Think about how many kids could have gotten some sort of combo therapy treatment in 11 months. Not saying they would have saved lives necessarily, but maybe. And they couldn't get their, their act together. Sorry, gonna swear, but it's just so, it's so frustrating.

[Bill Kristol]

Well, you'll keep a close eye on it and continue to report on. It's been excellent reporting and kind of thing that falls, you know, beneath the radar obviously in light of these massive stories. But yeah, it is a, it matters. And a lot of legislation like that, that matters. And that is where the collapse of. People make fun of, you know, old fashioned people talk about normal order and the ability of Congress just to pass legislation. It does sort of matter. You know, some of the legislation's ill advised, some of the money's wasted, God knows. But you Know, it's sort of. You do want a Congress that can actually act to pass legislation where there's support for it and where there's evidence, as I believe there is in this case, that some of the therapies are promising and that it's, it's a good investment by the US Government, so to speak, right?

[Sam Stein]

Oh, no, that's a really important point. It's like the damage is done not in like the broad strokes, of course that is true, but in the subtle ways. Right. It's like the little things, you know, how, how many kids are not going to get food or the treatments they need, how many roads aren't going to be built, how many, you know, electrical. You know, how our electrical prices are going to go up because we're not doing these energy things. So it's like the subtle things that really do matter and it's impossible to keep track of. And of course it's very difficult to, to report on because it's not. There's not a broader audience for those types of stories, but it really does matter.

[Bill Kristol]

You know, Doge, you mentioned and thought about that in a little while and Musk, thank God it's been out of the news, sort of the degree we can close on this, actually, just because I feel like that's something where it did hurt, ultimately hurt all these programs, obviously hurts hurt a lot of people around the world. It hurt Trump, I guess, and he ended up shoving Musk out, basically. But the degree of damage Doge did, and it was totally unnecessary and pointless. Right. I mean, it wasn't as if were facing a massive budget crisis and had to cut spending overnight. The bond market wasn't telling the government. They weren't going to stop. They were going to stop buying treasuries. And it was totally gratuitous. I feel like that's something that the administration hasn't been held accountable for as much. There are other issues where God knows I disagree with them, but you could say, okay, they have like a theory of why their policy is going to be better for the country, sort of what? There was no theory behind Doge. It was a bunch of jackass techno, you know. You know, well, that was the arrogant tech bros coming in and destroying things. Just destroying things.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, I mean, that was the theory, which. The theory is us technocrats are gods and we can come in and fix anything. And you idiot government officials don't know what you're doing. And like, there's like a couple of very revealing stories. Like, I forget if it was the Social Security, one of the agencies where one of the guys went in, he's like, actually, they're really efficient. It's like, it's like, yeah, you know, they've been doing this for a while. You know, it's not the caricature. You think I've. I have so many thoughts and dodge you and I talked endlessly about it. I, I keep coming back to this. I, we did this. No one, I mean, some people watched it at the time, but we did this in interview on Bulwark Takes with the consultant who was part of a team who was doing Doge in Canada like 15 or 20 years ago. And I keep coming back to that because the way they did it was so different than the way Musk did it. I mean, they got buying from the stakeholders. It was a very sort of like, gradual incremental process. They were looking 10 years down the road, 15 years down the road, not tomorrow. You know, they made actual, you know, operational reforms, they made institutional reforms. They were thinking big picture, and that's how you would use savings. It's not like you cut right away and then you're done. It's over time. So I keep coming back to that one as sort of evidence that Doge could have worked in theory, but they just didn't really want to try. But, you know, I think the damage from Doge is, is quite profound. We talked about the small stuff, but I think sort of the larger point that I keep coming back to on this is just the, the, the, the attacks on academia and science and how few people are going to want to study here or come and bring their brilliance here or are proactively looking to leave here. You know, people who do incredible research. The Jonathan Cohen piece that I come back to is the guy who was the Mozart of math, who, like, got his funding cut for. And like, why would we do that? You know, what was the point of that? This, this genius who's doing these incredible mathematical formulas and stuff I could never even comprehend. We're talking like Good Will Hunting type shit, and we're just like, yeah, you know what? We'll take your money. And why would we do that? It's just maddening. I think that stuff is going to live with us for a generation. If you're anyone in the research or academic, academic world, why would you come here? The instability, the possibility that even if a Democrat were to win back the White House, that in four years time you could just be back with a party who does not care for this stuff is. That's Too uncertain. And I think that's really problematic.

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[Bill Kristol]

Stores and the degree to which just to close on this, our progress. I was struck by this at a party actually a couple of months ago. A lot of people my age, a lot of physicians, just because that was the one of the hosts of the party. I was in that world of science, scientific research and medicine and there were people and it didn't even occur to me until afterwards. I was chatting with them and one of them had a slight accent and I said where are you from? I came 30 years ago from the Netherlands and, but you know, I had a good offer here and I now have a citizen and someone else told me he's very distinguished and has made real advances in his particular field. And there was someone else from another country, obviously many sons and daughters of immigrants. The idea that we're just throwing all that away for the future, I mean we don't have, we don't, you know, does Stephen Miller really think that every, all progress that we made in America in the last 30 years was from third generation and fourth and fifth generation Americans? I don't think that's empirically correct, you know, and, and, but there's such, that's where the nativism is both so mean spirited obvious that more on the side of, you know, denying help and legal status to people seeking asylum and refugees and those types of people, all of whom, many of whom also will help the country, most of them, I would say, in the pretty short term and I think of the medium and long term. But you see this cruelty side of it, but the idiocy of it, the self that just hurting, hurting our own country side of it is what strikes me almost as much. Nativism is a very unusual combination in that respect of maybe it's not that unusual. I don't know if. Of cruelty and idiocy, I feel like.

[Sam Stein]

And oh, no, it's not that unusual. It's been around forever.

[Bill Kristol]

But good point.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. But it's, but, yeah, it's just profoundly self defeating. And, you know, that's the thing, though. It's that, yes, Stephen Miller may, you know, be this odious figure, and we might want to think that he's just sort of like a blip on the historical radar, but I don't think so. And certainly J.D. vance, who has got to be the front runner for Trump's successor, believes this stuff, and so not great.

[Bill Kristol]

That's where this election year is pretty important and interesting, I think. And we'll see how many of these issues get confronted in a way, in some of these races. I think people have the conventional view that, oh, it's all just about the economy and, you know, price of goods. And obviously that's very important, maybe the most important thing. But I'm sort of struck at some of these races. Adrian makes his point that issues of that are a little beyond the immediate price of this good or that good have emerged in terms of, you know, what kind of country do we want to be? And I think the immigration issue really brings that one front and center.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, I don't know if there's one broad stroke here for Democrats. I mean, obviously affordability and competence of Trump is, is going to be the big picture, but I think each race is going to have some sort of kind of defining feature. I mean, look, it's like, hold on one second. It's like this, like, meat plant in Nebraska. Right? Like, it's this huge Trump district, it's closing. I mean, that's going to matter to that local race. Right. You know, the ICE raids in Chicago and elsewhere are now in New Orleans, in North Carolina. Those are going to matter to those races. So, you know, I do get the need for one large narrative, but I do think there's a lot of individuality in these contests.

[Bill Kristol]

Now, that's really, that's a good point. And I'd also just say Trump has gone down from 50%, let's just say, to 41% or so. Sure, the economy's been okay. The stock market hasn't gone down, unemployment's tiny bit up. Inflation isn't great from his point of view. But again, it can't be explained simply by 9% of the American public didn't suddenly decide the economy is much worse than it was nine, 10 months ago. They decided. There are other things about the Trump administration they don't like. Some of it is the failure to come through on reducing prices, obviously. But some of it, I think, is these other policies. And I think Democrats have been a little too invested in the notion that it's because of the Biden experience. Obviously, it's only about affordability, but obviously that's also an important issue. Anyway, this is a long conversation which we will continue to have over the next 11 months and. But we will cut it off for today. That was excellent. You told the pediatric cancer story, which is both tragic and moving, but also hopeful in a way, in less than 40 minutes. That was good. That was.

[Sam Stein]

I tried. Yeah.

[Bill Kristol]

Discipline on your part. And we'll obviously follow these terrible stories from Brown.

[Sam Stein]

Can I just say one last thing, Please? My mom texted me. She's watching live. She says Bill's lighting is fine from our perspective. Okay.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah. Thank you. Thank you. Mrs. STEIN that was really, that was a good review. I think we should close on that note, you being rebuked by your mom. By my own mom. That's excellent. Good. Sam, thanks for joining me today. Thank you for joining us on Bulwark on Sunday. And we'll see you soon.