Bulwark Takes — "The Bulwark’s 2025 Predictions Are Put On Trial"

Date: December 25, 2025
Host: Sam Stein
Guest/Judge: Mona Charen
Special Features: Celebrity predictions from the Bulwark staff

Episode Overview

This festive episode of Bulwark Takes brings an annual tradition to the forefront: reviewing last year's hot political predictions from the staff, and putting each one "on trial." Managing Editor Sam Stein is joined by Mona Charen, embracing her role (with full judicial regalia) as judge and jury over the staff’s prognostications for 2025. Together, they assess which predictions were visionary, which proved wildly off-base, and where credit is due—even when it’s awarded on dubious grounds.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Judge’s Gavel and The Ritual of Accountability

• Mona Charen dons a judge’s costume and embraces her role with humor.
• Sam Stein jokes about the gavel size, kicking off the segment with banter about Bulwark’s commitment to accountability (01:38).

2. Prediction Reviews: Play-by-Play with Verdicts

A. Trump Health Event (03:00)

• Prediction: Trump will experience a major health event.
• Judge’s Verdict: Half a point.
  • Mona: "He did not have a health event. But he is declining noticeably... stumbling a bit... falling asleep. But that's not a health event, so I'm giving it half a point." (03:56)
• Sam’s Take: Pushes for one full point, citing suspicion and ambiguity around Trump’s health (04:20).
• Memorable Quote:
  • Mona: "I have ruled. Bang." (04:11)
  • Sam: "I would give Tim at least one point... all this question about why he had an MRI..."

B. Trump Pardoning Eric Adams (04:43)

• Prediction: Trump would pardon Democratic NYC Mayor Eric Adams.
• Verdict: Full five points (!)
  • Mona: Initially gives the max score due to the rationale behind the pick, though Adams’ case was actually dismissed—he was never pardoned.
    • "I'm still giving him a 5 because it amounts to the same thing. And Will's prediction was so specific...the rationale he gave was spot on." (05:35)
• Sam: Objects, calling it "outrageous grading" (05:54).
• Notable Moment:
  • Sam accuses Mona of judicial bias:
    “This is the problem with the judicial system. You never know what biases the judge might have.” (06:13)

C. Massive MAGA Infighting (06:34)

• Prediction: Significant intra-MAGA factionalism will increase.
• Verdict: Five points.
  • Both judge and host agree this played out even beyond expectations, with feuds and splintering dominating the year (07:07).
• Quote:
  • Sam: "I think the actual magnitude of the infighting is much bigger than I actually expected. So Edgar gets five." (06:53)

D. Physical Altercation in Congress (07:34)

• Prediction: Two Congress members would get into a physical fight.
• Verdict: Zero points.
  • Mona: "Imaginative, colorful. And wrong. Zero points." (07:49)

E. AI Bubble Pops (08:03)

• Prediction: The "AI bubble" will burst in 2025.
• Verdict: Zero points.
  • Too early; hasn't materialized (08:30).
  • Mona: "No, I'm sorry. The prediction is just for 2025. So yeah, I'm afraid he gets a zero. But next year he'll be right." (08:39)

F. Wave of Social Violence Like the 1970s (10:13)

• Prediction: U.S. will see a "fairly nasty wave of social violence."
• Verdict: 1.5 points (Mona), 2.5–3 (Sam).
  • Mona: "He talked about a wave of social violence. Compared it to what happened in the 70s... There's been political violence... but I don't think that's what he was talking about." (11:09)
  • Sam: "I think...there's real friction in the air and often violent confrontation. And I think that's sort of what Sonny was going to ask." (12:03)
• Serious Note: Mona reflects on social resilience—noting lack of "dry tinder" despite major flashpoints (12:03–12:38).

G. Mark Cuban for President (12:46)

• Prediction: Mark Cuban will clearly emerge as a presidential candidate.
• Verdict: Zero points.
  • Mona: "Could be... just premature... but... that is a zero." (13:15)
  • Sam: "I'll be generous and give him a 0.5 because maybe there's something there still..." (13:28)

H. Three Republican House Speakers (13:41)

• Prediction: There will be at least three GOP House Speakers in 2025, including an outsider.
• Verdict: Zero points.
  • Mona: "She went on to say... one ... was going to be somebody from outside the Congress... She was very bold as Sarah is, but zero." (14:20)
• Sam: "We got docked points. Oh, my God, so wrong." (14:17)

I. Cabinet Turnover—Firings and Resignations (14:52)

• Prediction: Trump’s cabinet will see multiple firings/resignations.
• Verdict: Zero points.
  • Mona & Sam agree: “They made a decision. They weren't going to have heads roll like the first term. So I was wrong.” (16:03)
  • Sam (half-joking): "That's a zero. I, I will say that was an easy—I would have said the exact same thing...and yet..." (15:31)

J. Government Shutdown Over "Something Weird" (16:20)

• Prediction: There will be a government shutdown in 2025, possibly over an obscure issue like medical research funding, and it will be the longest ever.
• Verdict: 2 points (Mona), wants more (Sam).
  • Mona: "Not a bold prediction...but you did not predict that it was going to be the Democrats who would be taking the lead...But...you very perspicaciously predicted that there was going to be something about cutting back on medical research, which, honestly, they did do with Doge and all that, and you saw that coming.” (17:22)
  • Sam: “I was right on how long. I said it was going to be very long when it was the longest ever...I get a five. I give myself a five.” (18:11)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Mona Charen: “We believe in accountability more than anything else, honestly. And at the end of last year, we went through the staff, had them make a series of predictions… and now we're going to look back at those predictions and make assessments about who was right, who was omniscient, and who was terribly wrong.” (01:50)
• Sam Stein: “I'm loath to give Edgar any credit whatsoever. So this is a real five.” (07:08)
• Sam Stein: “We gotta dock her points. Oh my God, so wrong.” (14:17)
• Mona Charen [on political violence]: “If there wasn’t an outbreak of widespread violence following Charlie Kirk's murder, that suggests there isn't as much dry tinder as we might have feared...which I think is a really good sign.” (12:03–12:38)
• Sam Stein: “I would never in a million years have predicted that it was going to be the Democrats who would do it.” (18:38)

Fun & Memorable Segments

• Banter about the gavel & judicial robes (01:38–02:39)
• Playful accusation of judicial bias (06:11–06:18)
• Mona’s Sarah Longwell impersonation, wanting to go "negative" on a prediction (14:04)
• Sam trying to curry favor with the judge by awarding points (16:11–16:19)

Important Timestamps

• 01:38 — Mona dons the judge costume; lays out episode format.
• 03:00 — First prediction (Trump health event).
• 04:43 — Second prediction (Trump pardoning Eric Adams).
• 06:34 — Third prediction (MAGA infighting).
• 07:34 — Physical altercation in Congress prediction.
• 08:03 — AI bubble prediction.
• 10:13 — Social violence prediction.
• 12:46 — Mark Cuban for president.
• 13:41 — Multiple GOP House speakers prediction.
• 14:52 — Trump cabinet firings prediction.
• 16:20 — Government shutdown prediction.
• 18:47 — Reflections and episode wrap-up.

Tone and Style

The entire episode is marked by witty camaraderie, inside jokes, and wry skepticism. Even as the team grapples with dire topics like political violence or government dysfunction, the tone remains brisk and self-effacing. Mona’s mock judicial authority, Sam’s irreverent self-promotion, and their willingness to embrace wrongness make the episode equal parts insightful and entertaining.

Summary Takeaway

The Bulwark’s prediction review is a lively, good-natured exercise in accountability, humility, and occasional self-congratulation. Few predictions were spot-on; most were proven partially or wholly wrong, but the exercise gives listeners both a snapshot of just how unpredictable the American political landscape remains—and a reminder to never take punditry, or oneself, too seriously.