The Bulwark’s 2025 Predictions Are Put On Trial

Summary

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Bulwark Takes — "The Bulwark’s 2025 Predictions Are Put On Trial"

Date: December 25, 2025
Host: Sam Stein
Guest/Judge: Mona Charen
Special Features: Celebrity predictions from the Bulwark staff

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Episode Overview

This festive episode of Bulwark Takes brings an annual tradition to the forefront: reviewing last year's hot political predictions from the staff, and putting each one "on trial." Managing Editor Sam Stein is joined by Mona Charen, embracing her role (with full judicial regalia) as judge and jury over the staff’s prognostications for 2025. Together, they assess which predictions were visionary, which proved wildly off-base, and where credit is due—even when it’s awarded on dubious grounds.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Judge’s Gavel and The Ritual of Accountability

• Mona Charen dons a judge’s costume and embraces her role with humor.
• Sam Stein jokes about the gavel size, kicking off the segment with banter about Bulwark’s commitment to accountability (01:38).

2. Prediction Reviews: Play-by-Play with Verdicts

A. Trump Health Event (03:00)

• Prediction: Trump will experience a major health event.
• Judge’s Verdict: Half a point.
  • Mona: "He did not have a health event. But he is declining noticeably... stumbling a bit... falling asleep. But that's not a health event, so I'm giving it half a point." (03:56)
• Sam’s Take: Pushes for one full point, citing suspicion and ambiguity around Trump’s health (04:20).
• Memorable Quote:
  • Mona: "I have ruled. Bang." (04:11)
  • Sam: "I would give Tim at least one point... all this question about why he had an MRI..."

B. Trump Pardoning Eric Adams (04:43)

• Prediction: Trump would pardon Democratic NYC Mayor Eric Adams.
• Verdict: Full five points (!)
  • Mona: Initially gives the max score due to the rationale behind the pick, though Adams’ case was actually dismissed—he was never pardoned.
    • "I'm still giving him a 5 because it amounts to the same thing. And Will's prediction was so specific...the rationale he gave was spot on." (05:35)
• Sam: Objects, calling it "outrageous grading" (05:54).
• Notable Moment:
  • Sam accuses Mona of judicial bias:
    “This is the problem with the judicial system. You never know what biases the judge might have.” (06:13)

C. Massive MAGA Infighting (06:34)

• Prediction: Significant intra-MAGA factionalism will increase.
• Verdict: Five points.
  • Both judge and host agree this played out even beyond expectations, with feuds and splintering dominating the year (07:07).
• Quote:
  • Sam: "I think the actual magnitude of the infighting is much bigger than I actually expected. So Edgar gets five." (06:53)

D. Physical Altercation in Congress (07:34)

• Prediction: Two Congress members would get into a physical fight.
• Verdict: Zero points.
  • Mona: "Imaginative, colorful. And wrong. Zero points." (07:49)

E. AI Bubble Pops (08:03)

• Prediction: The "AI bubble" will burst in 2025.
• Verdict: Zero points.
  • Too early; hasn't materialized (08:30).
  • Mona: "No, I'm sorry. The prediction is just for 2025. So yeah, I'm afraid he gets a zero. But next year he'll be right." (08:39)

F. Wave of Social Violence Like the 1970s (10:13)

• Prediction: U.S. will see a "fairly nasty wave of social violence."
• Verdict: 1.5 points (Mona), 2.5–3 (Sam).
  • Mona: "He talked about a wave of social violence. Compared it to what happened in the 70s... There's been political violence... but I don't think that's what he was talking about." (11:09)
  • Sam: "I think...there's real friction in the air and often violent confrontation. And I think that's sort of what Sonny was going to ask." (12:03)
• Serious Note: Mona reflects on social resilience—noting lack of "dry tinder" despite major flashpoints (12:03–12:38).

G. Mark Cuban for President (12:46)

• Prediction: Mark Cuban will clearly emerge as a presidential candidate.
• Verdict: Zero points.
  • Mona: "Could be... just premature... but... that is a zero." (13:15)
  • Sam: "I'll be generous and give him a 0.5 because maybe there's something there still..." (13:28)

H. Three Republican House Speakers (13:41)

• Prediction: There will be at least three GOP House Speakers in 2025, including an outsider.
• Verdict: Zero points.
  • Mona: "She went on to say... one ... was going to be somebody from outside the Congress... She was very bold as Sarah is, but zero." (14:20)
• Sam: "We got docked points. Oh, my God, so wrong." (14:17)

I. Cabinet Turnover—Firings and Resignations (14:52)

• Prediction: Trump’s cabinet will see multiple firings/resignations.
• Verdict: Zero points.
  • Mona & Sam agree: “They made a decision. They weren't going to have heads roll like the first term. So I was wrong.” (16:03)
  • Sam (half-joking): "That's a zero. I, I will say that was an easy—I would have said the exact same thing...and yet..." (15:31)

J. Government Shutdown Over "Something Weird" (16:20)

• Prediction: There will be a government shutdown in 2025, possibly over an obscure issue like medical research funding, and it will be the longest ever.
• Verdict: 2 points (Mona), wants more (Sam).
  • Mona: "Not a bold prediction...but you did not predict that it was going to be the Democrats who would be taking the lead...But...you very perspicaciously predicted that there was going to be something about cutting back on medical research, which, honestly, they did do with Doge and all that, and you saw that coming.” (17:22)
  • Sam: “I was right on how long. I said it was going to be very long when it was the longest ever...I get a five. I give myself a five.” (18:11)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Mona Charen: “We believe in accountability more than anything else, honestly. And at the end of last year, we went through the staff, had them make a series of predictions… and now we're going to look back at those predictions and make assessments about who was right, who was omniscient, and who was terribly wrong.” (01:50)
• Sam Stein: “I'm loath to give Edgar any credit whatsoever. So this is a real five.” (07:08)
• Sam Stein: “We gotta dock her points. Oh my God, so wrong.” (14:17)
• Mona Charen [on political violence]: “If there wasn’t an outbreak of widespread violence following Charlie Kirk's murder, that suggests there isn't as much dry tinder as we might have feared...which I think is a really good sign.” (12:03–12:38)
• Sam Stein: “I would never in a million years have predicted that it was going to be the Democrats who would do it.” (18:38)

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Fun & Memorable Segments

• Banter about the gavel & judicial robes (01:38–02:39)
• Playful accusation of judicial bias (06:11–06:18)
• Mona’s Sarah Longwell impersonation, wanting to go "negative" on a prediction (14:04)
• Sam trying to curry favor with the judge by awarding points (16:11–16:19)

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Important Timestamps

• 01:38 — Mona dons the judge costume; lays out episode format.
• 03:00 — First prediction (Trump health event).
• 04:43 — Second prediction (Trump pardoning Eric Adams).
• 06:34 — Third prediction (MAGA infighting).
• 07:34 — Physical altercation in Congress prediction.
• 08:03 — AI bubble prediction.
• 10:13 — Social violence prediction.
• 12:46 — Mark Cuban for president.
• 13:41 — Multiple GOP House speakers prediction.
• 14:52 — Trump cabinet firings prediction.
• 16:20 — Government shutdown prediction.
• 18:47 — Reflections and episode wrap-up.

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Tone and Style

The entire episode is marked by witty camaraderie, inside jokes, and wry skepticism. Even as the team grapples with dire topics like political violence or government dysfunction, the tone remains brisk and self-effacing. Mona’s mock judicial authority, Sam’s irreverent self-promotion, and their willingness to embrace wrongness make the episode equal parts insightful and entertaining.

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Summary Takeaway

The Bulwark’s prediction review is a lively, good-natured exercise in accountability, humility, and occasional self-congratulation. Few predictions were spot-on; most were proven partially or wholly wrong, but the exercise gives listeners both a snapshot of just how unpredictable the American political landscape remains—and a reminder to never take punditry, or oneself, too seriously.

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Transcript

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[Sam Stein]

Everyone, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bulwark, and I am joined by Mona Charan, who for today is Judge Mona Charan.

[Mona Charan]

That's right.

[Sam Stein]

Let's see the gavel, please. It's too small. We needed a bigger one. Whatever.

[Mona Charan]

We need more Bulwark subscribers so we can get a bigger gavel for next year.

[Sam Stein]

We should run it. We should run a subscription plea that says, buy us a bigger gavel. Mona is dressed like this because we here at the Bulwark believe in accountability more than anything else, honestly. And at the end of last year, we went through the staff, had them make a series of predictions about what would happen in the year 2025. And now we're going to look back at those predictions and make assessments about who was right, who was omniscient, and who was terribly wrong. And Mona's gonna be the judge and the jury. Fair enough.

[Mona Charan]

This should always be the way of the world. I should always be judging.

[Sam Stein]

I feel like we already have that. You don't need to wear this costume.

[Mona Charan]

You.

[Sam Stein]

You already judging me.

[Mona Charan]

But besides, I want to thank Renita for. For giving me the costume.

[Sam Stein]

It's really good. All right, so let's get right into it. We're gonna go through these. We're gonna play videos again. These were done in December of 2024. There's 10 of them. We're going to play them one at a time, and then Mona's going to deliver a verdict. And I'm going to say if I agree or disagree with Mona's harsh sentences, sentencing. All right, let's start. This is at random. Here we go.

[Various Prediction Contributors]

My dark horse prediction for 2025 is that Donald Trump has a health event. And I think that this is inevitable based on the actuarial tables to happen during his presidency, because, you know, Donald Trump's machismo and his strength is such an important part of his political brand. This was always, I think, a vulnerability of his in this campaign because we live in the darkest timeline. We did not end up in a situation where his fragility as an elderly man came to the fore.

[Sam Stein]

Okay. Okay, Mona, what's your verdict?

[Mona Charan]

I would give him half. Half a point. Half a point because.

[Sam Stein]

Sorry, how many. How many points can one get? Let's just set the standards here. Oh, only one.

[Mona Charan]

Good point. Yeah. Five. Five is the max.

[Sam Stein]

Okay, so he gets 05.

[Mona Charan]

He gets 05 because Trump did not have a health event. But he is. He is declining noticeably. His health is declining. That's clear. He's got those things on his hands. He's stumbling a bit. And he's falling asleep.

[Sam Stein]

He's falling asleep.

[Mona Charan]

He's. Yeah, but that's not a health event, so I'm giving it half a point. I have rolled. Bang.

[Sam Stein]

I would give Tim at least one point, but that's my. I think the. The hand stuff is there's something up there. And there's all this question about why he had an mri. They're not really being forthcoming about it. We don't know. And because it's so clouded in uncertainty, I feel like that deserves at least one point. So we have a little bit of a disagreement. Okay.

[Mona Charan]

Okay.

[Sam Stein]

Fair enough. Let's play clip number two.

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So my dark horse prediction for 2025 is that Donald Trump is going to pardon New York Mayor Eric Adams. Why would Donald Trump pardon a Democrat? The reason is Donald Trump is not fundamentally a Republican. Donald Trump is fundamentally a criminal. And so he loves criminals, like white collar criminals. Like himself, he hates the deep state, the weaponized law enforcement. So he sympathizes with guys who have.

[Sam Stein]

Been convicted by law enforcement, by the justice system. All right, Mona, what do we get?

[Mona Charan]

Five points.

[Sam Stein]

No, no, no. He did not get a pardon. Adams did not get a pardon. He got his case dismissed. No power.

[Mona Charan]

Oh, that's right. That's right. Oh, that's such a good. That's right. I had forgotten that.

[Sam Stein]

Still revise. You're giving me a five.

[Mona Charan]

I'm still giving him a five because it amounts to the same thing. And Will's prediction was so specific, and the rationale that he gave was spot on. So I am giving this a 5. And by the way, nobody else in our crew got a five.

[Sam Stein]

This is outrageous grading. Will didn't even get it right. You're giving him a five. He came close to getting it right. I guess he maybe add a point for the beard. So.

[Mona Charan]

No, I'm adding a point for the fact that he has my book behind his shoulder.

[Sam Stein]

Hold on one second. I have.

[Mona Charan]

See, this is the problem with the judicial system. You never know what biases the judge might have.

[Sam Stein]

I have your books somewhere here. I know I have it. I'm gonna find it. I definitely have it around here. Okay, fair enough. If. If that's all it takes, I'm gonna find that book.

[Mona Charan]

There you go.

[Various Prediction Contributors]

All right.

[Sam Stein]

If that's what it takes, then fine. He gets a five. All right, let's play clip three.

[Various Prediction Contributors]

My dark horse prediction for 2025 is that we are going to see a lot more MAGA infighting than. Than certainly we saw in the first term and maybe even than people are expecting right now.

[Mona Charan]

I mean, mean, I. I actually had forgotten about Egger. So he also gets a five.

[Sam Stein]

That was.

[Mona Charan]

That was good.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah.

[Mona Charan]

Agree.

[Sam Stein]

Oh, yeah. No, completely spot. I mean, not. Not exactly the craziest prediction. He didn't really walk out on the. On that one, but I think the actual magnitude of the infighting is much bigger than I actually expected. So Edgar gets five on that one.

[Mona Charan]

Edgar gets five.

[Sam Stein]

And everyone knows I'm loath to give Edgar any credit whatsoever. So this is a real five. All right, let's play the next. My prediction for 2025 is that two members of Congress will get into a physical altercation that goes beyond what we've seen in the past couple years. I think this will happen or has a high likelihood of happening, because if you recall, when the 118th Congress started.

[Various Prediction Contributors]

There was a dust up on the floor. Mike Rogers rushed at Matt Gaetz during the fight over the speakership and he.

[Sam Stein]

Had to be held back. Okay. I don't know.

[Mona Charan]

Imaginative, Colorful.

[Various Prediction Contributors]

Sure.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah.

[Mona Charan]

And wrong. Zero points.

[Sam Stein]

Zero.

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[Sam Stein]

You didn't get that one. I wish he was right. Yeah. We have not seen a physical education yet. Give it time. Maybe it'll be in 2026. All right, next one.

[Various Prediction Contributors]

My dark horse prediction for 2025 is that next year we are going to see finally the popping of the AI bubble. So as Ed Zitron points out various installments of his excellent newsletter, AI companies have over promised and under delivered on the key capabilities.

[Mona Charan]

So what's your rating, Sam Stein?

[Sam Stein]

So I. It's obviously a zero because it didn't happen, but I think it's going to happen. Maybe. Yeah, it was just a little premature.

[Mona Charan]

Little premature, I think.

[Sam Stein]

Do we give any credit?

[Mona Charan]

Should we give him 0.5? No, I'm sorry. The prediction is just for 2025. So yeah, I'm afraid he gets a zero. But next year he'll be right.

[Sam Stein]

It was a very Martin prediction too. Some obscure newsletter that he's been reading and like, who is that? Okay, sounds right.

[Mona Charan]

Martin is very learned.

[Sam Stein]

Yes, quite. All right, next.

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[Various Prediction Contributors]

Now By Hope for McDelivery, I've got a downer prediction. I'm not sure how dark everybody else is getting here, but if JBL is on this video it's probably pretty dark. My prediction is that we're going a fairly nasty wave of social violence that we have not seen since the 1970s in this country. And I think it's a combination of social media bringing people together and really, you know, the reaction to the killing of the United Healthcare CEO has been pretty disturbing to me. And I think it's probably not a great thing that the killer is being lionized in certain small but still very vocal circles.

[Sam Stein]

All right, okay.

[Mona Charan]

So I 100% agree with Sonny about the disturbing reaction to the United Healthcare guys execution.

[Sam Stein]

Oh yeah.

[Mona Charan]

But I still have to give it just maybe a point and a half because there has been no. He talked about a wave of social violence. Compared it to what happened in the 70s. He was thinking of riots and huge kinds of things thing and, and we have had political violence, there's no question. And we had the murder of Charlie Kirk, but I don't think that's what he was talking about. So that's why I say a point and a half.

[Sam Stein]

I would go with two and a half to three. And it's weird to talk about this on a grave because it's so dark, but I think we're at, we're like at a place where it feels like obviously incredibly more tense. There is statistically more political violence and then you can combine it I think with the immigration raid stuff and you get to this place where there's real friction in the air and often violent confrontation. And I think that's sort of what Sonny was going to ask. I'm going to give him a two and a half to three.

[Mona Charan]

Okay. At the risk of being serious here for a second and what is clearly a light hearted video, I just have to say Sam, that if there wasn't an outbreak of widespread violence following Charlie Kirk's murder that suggests that there is isn't as much of an appetite out there, that there isn't as much dry tinder as we might have feared because that was really the sort of thing that in a different environment you could imagine igniting terrible violence. And it didn't. Which I think is a really good sign.

[Sam Stein]

Okay, I'll take it. I appreciate that. Hadn't thought of it that way. But you're Right. Okay, next video. Let's keep rolling.

[Various Prediction Contributors]

In 2025, I think it's going to become more clear to everybody that Mark Cuban is going to be running for president. I think it's pretty clear that Mark Cuban is the best answer to Trump. He is a pro democracy populist. He was vigorously anti Trump over the course of the last four years. And like Trump, he comes with all sorts of built in cultural memory.

[Sam Stein]

All right, Judge Mona.

[Mona Charan]

Well, it could be like Martin, that he's just premature in this prediction, but I have to say that is a zero.

[Sam Stein]

I'll be generous and give him a point five because maybe there's something there still, but I don't feel I'm just going to be nice and give him a point five. I'm, I'm like Harvard. I'm in. Great inflation.

[Mona Charan]

Yeah, Great inflation.

[Sam Stein]

All right, here we go. Next.

[Mona Charan]

Okay. My prediction is that there will be a, a minimum of three different Republican House speakers. I think Johnson gets ousted early by President Elon being annoyed that Johnson wants to keep the government going and we end up going through multiple cycles.

[Sam Stein]

Let's just stop there. Oh, my God.

[Mona Charan]

So I'm tempted to do my Sarah.

[Sam Stein]

Imitation, which is, can we go negative?

[Mona Charan]

Okay, okay. Sarah Longwell gets a big fat zero. Now points for. We gotta imagination.

[Sam Stein]

We got Docker points. Oh, my God, So wrong.

[Mona Charan]

That was really, really wrong. Actually, we cut it off. But she even went on to say that one of the three speakers was going to be somebody from outside the Congress itself because, you know, they're allowed to do that. Somebody, she said, like Vivek Ramaswamy. So she, yeah, she, she was very bold as Sarah is, but zero.

[Sam Stein]

I admire the boldness. A little bit disconcerting that her and JVL in our flagship commentary are completely off on this stuff, but we'll put that aside. All right, who's next?

[Mona Charan]

My 2025 prediction is don't get too comfortable with all of these cabinet choices that Trump has made because there are going to be firings and there are going to be resignations before the end of the year. Trump is sort of like our Hugo Chavez. Chavez was the strongman leader of Venezuela. Okay, cut her.

[Sam Stein]

We can cut off. Hold on, I'm looking up. I want to look this up. Matt Gates with. Oh, this is. Well, he withdrew in November 2024. So we had passed that point. Okay.

[Mona Charan]

Yep. So.

[Sam Stein]

All right.

[Mona Charan]

I don't know who that person is. Yeah, fat zero.

[Sam Stein]

That's a zero. I, I will say that was an easy. I would have said the exact same thing. It would have been a simple guess. And yet.

[Mona Charan]

Yep, here we are. So wrong. Yeah.

[Sam Stein]

Has there been a single one? I mean, who was the guy who was reassigned to UN Ambassador? Was he.

[Mona Charan]

Well, yeah, and he did reassign, you know, Elise Stefanik, but, you know.

[Sam Stein]

Well, she wasn't reassigned. She was just told to withdraw. Yeah. There's really. Has not been any fire.

[Mona Charan]

No, no, they decided. They made it. They. They made a decision. They weren't going to have heads roll like the first term. So I was wrong.

[Sam Stein]

All right, well, I'm going to give you. I'm. Look, I'm giving you five points just because I want to. I want goodwill with the judge for when I come up. Okay.

[Mona Charan]

Very smart. Yeah.

[Sam Stein]

Let's go. Next. I predict the government will shut down again. Not going on much in a limb here. Tightly divided. House Trump shut down the government when he was president first time, but I think this time around, it's going to be over something crazy and weird like, you know, we're funding too much, you know, biomedical research or something like that, and everyone's like, why would you shut down the government over this? And Trump will, you know, have some excuse, and we will be in it for quite a bit of time because right now, no one really seems to be all that committed to keeping the government open on the certain side of the aisle. Mona, would you like me to give you some lotto numbers as well? Am I. Am I omniscient? Do I. Do I predict the future or what? I know you're about to dock me. I know you're about to dock me, but go.

[Mona Charan]

Are you. Are you straining yourself, patting yourself on the back there? Well done. Yeah. So, yeah, no, here's the thing. Okay.

[Sam Stein]

Bring it.

[Mona Charan]

I give you a one and a half to. I give you two points on this one. Two points. Two points. Here's why.

[Sam Stein]

2.5. Oh, my.

[Mona Charan]

Here's why.

[Sam Stein]

Oh, sorry, I have my gavel, your eminence. Go ahead.

[Mona Charan]

So, not a bold prediction to predict, as you said yourself, you know, to predict government shutdown, but you did not predict that it was going to be the Democrats who would be taking the lead.

[Sam Stein]

That's fine.

[Mona Charan]

But the reason I gave you two points is that you very perspicaciously predicted that there was going to be something about cutting back on medical research, which, honestly, they did do with Doge and all that, and you saw that coming. So I give that the two points for your answer. But there you are.

[Sam Stein]

I know it's funny to think about it. Because at the time Doge hadn't come into effect and there was no NIH cuts or anything like that. So I will give myself some credit for that. You are right. I did get the instigator wrong. I was right on how long. I said it was going to be very long when it was the longest ever.

[Mona Charan]

You were right about that.

[Sam Stein]

So in some ways I get a five. I give myself a five. I will give.

[Various Prediction Contributors]

Yeah.

[Mona Charan]

I would never in a million years have predicted that it was going to be the Democrats who would do it. I mean, that didn't become clear until much later.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. And yeah, that's a good point. I would not have predicted it. But yeah, okay. All right. I'm really excited to see. That was our last one. I'm really excited to see the staff's 2026 predictions. I already put mine in. I'm not going to spoil it. People can watch that video. But we're going to have to do this again a year from now.

[Mona Charan]

All right.

[Sam Stein]

Keep the judge's costume.

[Mona Charan]

Keep the gavel costume.

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[Sam Stein]

All right, Mona, chair, thank you so much for doing this. I appreciate it.

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[Sam Stein]

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