Bulwark Takes: The Global Economy Is Literally Being Choked

Host: Andrew Egger
Guest: Sal Mercogliano (Maritime historian, professor, former merchant mariner, and host of "What's Going on with Shipping")
Date: March 21, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the economic and human fallout from the Strait of Hormuz crisis sparked by the ongoing US/Israel-Iran conflict. Maritime expert Sal Mercogliano joins host Andrew Egger to explain just how disruptive the chokehold on one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes has been—and what this means for the global economy, energy prices, and thousands of seafarers stranded in the region.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Vital Role of the Strait of Hormuz

[02:11] Sal Mercogliano:

• Describes Strait of Hormuz as a “classic maritime choke point.”
• Around 135 ships, primarily tankers carrying oil and liquefied gases, transit daily.
• “About 25% of global trade goes through this narrow little choke point.”
• The recent conflict has “choked off” this artery of trade.

2. How Iran Has Seized (Economic) Control

[03:22] Sal Mercogliano:

• Traffic plummeted from 130+ ships a day to single digits post-conflict.
• Now, only ships Iran allows (or those paying reported $2 million bribes) are passing—mostly from countries like China, India, and Pakistan.
• Ships detour into Iranian territorial waters, “tells us that Iran is basically inspecting these ships, clearing these ships.”
• “Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz now. They're controlling who's going in and who’s coming out.”

3. Military Supremacy vs. Economic Reality

[04:32–06:22] Andrew Egger & Sal Mercogliano:

• Despite US/Israeli airpower, Iran controls commercial movement.
• US has “impressive” military presence, but lacks enough ships for secure escorts.
• “We haven't gotten the right mix of vessels … we don’t have enough of them over there.”
• Lessons from Ukraine (Black Sea) and Houthis (Red Sea): Modern anti-ship warfare doesn’t require a navy—threats like drones and mines suffice to paralyze shipping.
• “The gnats can get everywhere. They're really hard to hit and it's almost impossible to get all of them.” [Sal, 07:42]

4. The Risks Facing Shipping and Mariner Psyche

[08:45] Sal Mercogliano:

• US military is skilled at shooting down threats, but even “1% risk” is too much for commercial shippers transporting volatile cargo.
• “If you tell a commercial shipping guy, there's a 99% chance you're going to get through. What they hear is there's a 1% I'm not going to get through. How do I minimize the downside of that?”

5. The Growing Humanitarian Crisis for Seafarers

[12:01] Sal Mercogliano:

• 3,200 ships, 20,000 seafarers currently stranded.
• Ships running low on water, food, and fuel—many not permitted to dock or resupply.
• “Received a note from one seafarer … their water maker … was out and the ship was out of water. … They were begging to go into port to get water and the port refused them.”
• Crews now call themselves the “Yellow Fleet”—a reference to ships stranded in the Suez Canal during the 1968 Six-Day War.

6. Contradictory US Policy Toward Iranian Oil

[14:29] Sal Mercogliano:

• US seized tankers carrying Venezuelan oil, but is now allowing Iranian oil through to stabilize prices.
• “We want that Iranian oil on the global market to make up for the shortfall. … Which is just the most confusing policy out there.”
• Seizing Iranian tankers could have been a leverage point, but hasn’t been used.

7. Domestic Politics and Economic Trade-offs

[16:35–18:04] Andrew Egger & Sal Mercogliano:

• President says “we don’t use the Strait, we don’t need it”—but US is still deeply affected via global supply chains.
• US avoids a ground presence due to domestic aversion, preferring airstrikes.
• Letting Iranian oil through keeps prices down, despite empowering Iran financially.

8. Wider Economic Fallout and the Global “Bloodstream”

[18:04–21:07] Sal Mercogliano:

• Despite US not importing much directly from the Gulf, global interconnectedness means any disruption impacts everyone.
• “We don’t live in an isolated world where you can choke off 25% of global trade and don’t think it affects the rest of the world.”
• Uses analogy: “What we’ve done is put a clamp on a femoral artery and we’ve choked off 25% of the blood flow.”

9. If the Strait Remains Closed…

[21:07] Sal Mercogliano:

• “You’re talking about bankrupting Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait. Saudi is going to be crippled … Uae, I mean, these are economies that are, that are huge energy demands. There's not enough energy to meet this.”
• Short-term supply can be replaced by stored reserves, but those are running out.
• Full normalization could take months—even if the crisis ended tomorrow: “It takes you a week to fix a one day massive disruption. We're 21 days into this. You're talking about 21 weeks.”
• Continued closure would require global trade to “rewrite how we do trade on a global scale” (recalls supertanker innovation post-1968 Suez closure).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iran’s leverage:
  “Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz now. They're controlling who's going in and who's coming out.”
  – Sal Mercogliano [04:09]

• On military vs. shipping realities:
  “If you tell a commercial shipping guy, there's a 99% chance you're going to get through. What they hear is there's a 1% I'm not going to get through.”
  – Sal Mercogliano [09:18]

• On mariners’ plight:
  “They're starting to call themselves the Yellow Fleet. … Back during the Six Day War … the Suez Canal closed, there was a fleet of ships that got stuck … for years, and the ships turned yellow from the dust, and they're worried about becoming a new version of that.”
  – Sal Mercogliano [12:54]

• On economic isolationism:
  “We live in a global world that's interconnected. If you cut off 20% of global oil … that's got to come from somewhere else.”
  – Sal Mercogliano [18:17]

• On long-term consequences:
  “If you go further than a month out, I don't know, you're talking about restructuring the global trade patterns of the planet, which literally only happens during world wars.”
  – Sal Mercogliano [22:53]

Important Timestamps

• 02:11 – What makes Strait of Hormuz strategically unique
• 03:22 – Iran’s de-facto control & ship passage bribes
• 04:32 – Paradox of military power vs. economic impact
• 06:39 – The technological threat: drones, mines, speedboats
• 08:45 – Shipping insurers’ calculus and “acceptable risk”
• 12:01 – Humanitarian crisis for stranded crews ("Yellow Fleet")
• 14:29 – Confusion and contradictions in US oil policy
• 18:04 – Why the US does care about the Strait
• 21:07 – What if the crisis drags on for 1-6 months?
• 24:10 – The “bloodstream” analogy—how supply chains react
• 25:42 – Closing optimism: “human beings are very resolute”

Tone and Language

Conversational, fast-moving, occasionally darkly humorous but serious, with both Egger’s incredulity and Mercogliano’s clear, expert, but sometimes bleak analysis. The discussion zeroes in on how policy, logistics, and lived experience intersect in a high-stakes global crisis.

Closing Thoughts

Mercogliano ends with a touch of optimism despite the gravity of the situation:

"Global shipping has been challenged in the past … we will overcome this. I think the Trump administration underestimated the situation...it's going to take a concentrated effort to do it. But … I tend to be optimistic, not pessimistic."
– Sal Mercogliano [25:53]

For more, follow Sal Mercogliano's channel "What's Going on with Shipping" and the Bulwark team at thebulwark.com.