Bulwark Takes: "The MAGA Heir No One Took Seriously… Until Now"

The Bulwark | April 20, 2026
Host: Andrew Egger
Guest: JVL (Jonathan V. Last)

Episode Overview

This episode of Bulwark Takes dives into the unexpectedly strong prospects of Donald Trump Jr. as a leading contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Andrew Egger and JVL dissect JVL’s latest “Triad” column, which posits that Trump Jr. is not just a punchline or brand ambassador but possibly the logical, even inevitable, MAGA heir—one who could sweep aside other hopefuls if he throws his hat in the ring. The discussion explores the dynamics of Trumpism, GOP succession, and what the post-Trump right really wants in its candidates.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the 2028 GOP Field: Who’s Really a Contender?

[01:00 - 03:10]

• Andrew Egger introduces the concept that the 2028 race is coming fast, and despite talk of “Trump fatigue,” Trumpism is not going anywhere.

  "We are gonna have presidential candidates coming out of our ears much sooner than any of us are prepared for...there are a lot of other Republicans that we're going to need to be familiarizing ourselves with." (01:00)

• The major question: Amidst charades of ideological repositioning, does anyone “set your little Reformicon heart pitter-patter?”

2. The Rise of Don Jr.: The Logical MAGA Heir

[03:11 - 06:13]

• JVL reveals his “dark horse” pick: Donald Trump Jr.

  "This was a candidate who I have been talking about as the logical heir to MAGA...people had always laughed at me." (02:08)

• Notable polling: Don Jr. consistently places second or third when polled, outpacing career politicians like Rubio and Vance—despite not being a serious declared contender.
• Don Jr.'s success is partly due to pure name ID, but also because he’s become the “mascot for a lifestyle brand” more than a traditional politician.
• JVL’s Bold Prediction:

  "If Donald J. Trump Jr. chooses to run for president, he will be the Republican nominee." (05:48)

  • The only thing stopping him is if he personally decides not to run.

3. What Makes MAGA Tick? Empty Vessel or Deep Ideology?

[06:14 - 08:26]

• Egger frames MAGA as a “lifestyle brand,” not an ideological project—making Don Jr. a perfect inheritor.

  "His commitments are to enriching the Trump family and talking up his father, the president. And that's kind of all you need, I guess." (07:14)

• Aspirants like J.D. Vance or Marco Rubio try to layer MAGA with policy specifics (industrial policy, immigration), but never become its true “beating heart”—that still revolves around the Trump family and grievances against elites.

4. If Don Jr. Runs, the Field Freezes

[08:28 - 11:44]

• JVL explains the mechanics: With Trump Sr. hinting at a third term, no one currently in his administration can formally launch a campaign until he steps aside or anoints a successor (likely Don Jr.).
• This effectively blocks out people like J.D. Vance (VP) and Marco Rubio from running.

  "If he [Trump Sr.] decides to wait and not unfreeze it until he lays hands and anoints his...beloved son, you wind up having the legs cut out from anybody in the administration..." (09:06)

• Outsiders like Tucker Carlson might try, but even they may defer to the family.

5. The GOP: A Shrinking but Loyal MAGA Base

[14:27 - 15:34]

• Egger notes that while MAGA’s national support is weaker than a year ago, it still dominates the GOP primary electorate.

  "Within the core of the core, it's...they're all still with him, you know, ride or die till Judgment Day." (14:28)

• Loyalists will likely prevail in a primary; the party machinery and culture make opposition nearly impossible.

6. The Trump Family Business Model

[15:35 - 19:24]

• JVL makes the case that being a political nominee is now part of the Trump family business plan.

  "The Trump net worth was at about 2.9 billion when he took office...now it's at 6.2 billion...If you're the Trump family...in order to have, like, Middle Eastern kingdoms thinking it's worth their while to bribe you...some one of you, either the sitting president or his son, has to be the party's nominee in 2028." (16:14)

• Even a losing campaign keeps the revenue stream alive; being the nominee preserves access and influence into 2032.

7. Can Anyone Challenge Don Jr.?

[20:15 - 24:53]

• Discussion of possible challengers:
  • "Old Republican Party” stand-ins like Nikki Haley, who drew 25–30% in 2024, never felt like a real threat.
  • MAGA exiles (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Candace Owens, maybe Tucker Carlson) might try to break away but lack critical mass.
• JVL’s assessment: The groups of MAGA defectors will be “smaller as a percentage than Never Trumpers.”

  "I just have a hard time believing that, though. There's just too much power There, there's, I don't know." (22:43)

• Anyone running against a Trump is signing up to become “political roadkill," as seen with DeSantis, Pence, Haley, and Christie (24:43).

8. The Trump Dynasty: Five Straight Nominations?

[24:56 - 25:47]

• Egger reflects on the chilling possibility of the GOP nominating a Trump in five consecutive elections (2016 to 2032).

  "We may end up in a world where five consecutive presidential elections have a Trump as the Republican nominee." (25:36)

• He pokes at the “logic train,” but admits the argument is hard to break.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• JVL’s Thesis:

  "If Donald J. Trump Jr. chooses to run for president, he will be the Republican nominee." (05:48)

• On MAGA’s Nature:

  "The beating heart of MAGA has been the person of Donald Trump and this sort of loose lattice of grievances...Don Jr. is a great inheritor for that." — Egger (06:32)

• On Why the Trumps Keep Running:

  "If you're the Trump family… in order to have...Middle Eastern kingdoms thinking it's worth their while to bribe you...either the sitting president or his son has to be the party's nominee in 2028." — JVL (16:14)

• MAGA’s Power of Deterrence:

  "If you run against the Trump family, you become political roadkill." — JVL (24:47)

• The Grim Prediction:

  “We may end up in a world where five consecutive presidential elections have a Trump as the Republican nominee.” — Egger (25:36)

Key Timestamps

• [01:00] — Setting the 2028 race; the “Reformicon heart” question
• [02:08] — JVL reveals years-long Don Jr. theory
• [05:48] — “If he runs, he wins the nomination”
• [09:06] — The “frozen field” and why Vance/Rubio can’t run
• [14:28] — MAGA base remains dominant in GOP
• [16:14] — Trump dynasty as a business plan
• [22:43] — MAGA defectors will be even fewer than Never Trumpers
• [24:47] — The DeSantis deterrent: running against a Trump is political suicide
• [25:36] — The possibility of five consecutive Trump nominees

Conclusion

The episode offers a provocative, unsettling roadmap of how Donald Trump Jr.—for years dismissed as unserious—could effortlessly inherit his father’s political movement and dominate the 2028 Republican primary, driven by the loyalty of the MAGA base and the Trump family’s own incentives. Egger and JVL lament, with gallows humor, the party’s transformation from policy-oriented debate into personality cult and family dynasty. The conversation closes on the bleak possibility that the GOP, unable to escape the Trump orbit, may extend the era of Trumpian politics well beyond 2028.

For a written version of JVL’s 2028 GOP field analysis, check “The Triad” at thebulwark.com.