The One Trait That Predicts Trump Support (w. Matthew MacWilliams)

Summary

Bulwark Takes – The One Trait That Predicts Trump Support

Guest: Matthew MacWilliams (Fellow, German Marshall Fund)
Host: Sam Stein (Managing Editor, The Bulwark)
Date: August 30, 2025

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Main Theme & Purpose

This episode dives into the psychological and political dynamics behind Donald Trump’s enduring support, focusing on one key predictor identified by Matthew MacWilliams back in 2016: authoritarianism. MacWilliams elaborates on the nature of this trait, how it has been activated in recent American politics, and what it means for the future of American democracy.

“The reason we're talking with Matthew today is because...there's one trait that can predict whether you're a Trump supporter.”
— Sam Stein [01:22]

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Origins of the Authoritarianism Insight

• MacWilliams recounts his influential 2016 Politico article, which argued that authoritarian tendencies are the single most reliable predictor of Trump support.
• At the time, even the term “authoritarianism” was controversial in political science circles.
• He drew on the work of Mark Hetherington and Jonathan Weiler (“Authoritarianism and Polarization in American Politics”), whose ideas were initially marginalized.

“When I wrote that thing...and I used the word authoritarianism, it was like verboten. Now everyone uses it, but when I wrote it, it was like, no, you can't say that.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [02:17]

2. Defining Authoritarianism

• Authoritarianism is described as a disposition favoring authority, order, and uniformity, with an aversion to diversity.
• Those with authoritarian tendencies will “sacrifice liberty, quite frankly, for security,” and their orientation is “turned on by fear.”

“It is for someone who wants authority, order, doesn't like diversity at all, and will sacrifice liberty, quite frankly, for security. And it is a disposition that gets turned on by fear.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [03:16]

3. Why Trump? Why Now?

• MacWilliams explains Trump’s rhetoric (from his first escalator speech and beyond) was tailor-made to activate authoritarian personalities: fear-mongering, divisiveness, and “us versus them” language.
• Trump's message found a broader audience than prior American authoritarians, due to the increased reach of social media and amplification by media channels like Fox News.

“Fear mongering, the divisiveness, the separating to us versus them, the basic othering–that entire speech…was written to activate authoritarians.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [05:47]

4. The Migration of Authoritarians Across Parties

• Historically, authoritarian-leaning voters were distributed across parties, but over decades, have become increasingly concentrated among Republicans. However, there remain authoritarians among Democrats and independents as well.
• Trump was able to galvanize authoritarian-leaning Republican primary voters but also activated some who were former Democrats.

“[Before] the culture wars started, early 60s, it appears that authoritarians were pretty well sorted across parties. They started moving towards the Republican Party...they haven't all sorted into the Republican Party at all.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [07:30]

5. The Subconscious Tug of Authoritarianism

• Many Americans subconsciously yearn for a “strong leader.” MacWilliams cites polling (from the World Values Survey) showing a significant minority of Americans agree with statements like, “We need a strong leader who pays no attention to Congress or the courts.”
• This type of attitude is persistent, with roughly one-third of the public sympathetic to such views.

“When I did this nationally, it was like 34%. It's probably up to 38, 39% now. Strong leader. The press is the enemy of us. That number has grown because it gets stoked.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [09:28]

6. Scale and Technology: What Made Trump Different

• Past authoritarians (like Palmer Mitchell in 1919, or Sen. Joe McCarthy in the 1950s) never reached a similar scale due to a lack of communications infrastructure and resistance from powerful institutions.
• Trump’s use of social media—and mainstream media's willingness to give him oxygen—let him bypass gatekeepers and build a direct channel to millions.

“With Trump, and using social media, he was able to reach that audience...there was siren call, it reached scale, it was on target, it activated the authoritarian base.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [12:20]

7. Demographic Succession and Erosion of Democratic Support

• MacWilliams introduces the idea of “demographic succession,” highlighting that older Americans are more consistent supporters of democracy than younger ones.
• Only 24% of 18–39 year olds are consistently pro-democracy, as compared to 65% of the over-70 crowd.
• As generations shift, the opportunity for authoritarian leaders grows.

“18 to 39 year olds, only 24% of them are consistent supporters of democracy...the younger people have much lower democracy scores, which means that the environment for an authoritarian leader...becomes more likely.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [14:03]

8. Path Dependence and the Allure of Authoritarianism

• Once an authoritarian track is established, it’s difficult to reverse course—what political scientists call a “path dependent process.”
• There are increasing rewards and decreasing penalties for supporting Trump, while opposition grows more costly.

“There are increasing returns for capitulating and supporting Trump and they're increasing punishments for not. And that's called a critical path, path dependent process.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [16:15]

9. Can We Turn Back? What Might Change the Path

• Political reversals are unlikely to come quickly or easily.
• Turning away from authoritarianism may require the ruling coalition to fail spectacularly or create enough “collateral damage” that public opinion shifts.

“If that collateral damage gets large enough and you can focus on it, you might be able to beat them in an election...But it was like 19, 20, 20. People kept asking me, OK, Biden wins, it's all over. I said, no, we're on a path right now where it's several election cycles to turn this back.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [18:51]

10. Role of Media and Opposition

• The media, opposition parties, and civic actors must spotlight failings and offer clear alternatives.
• Waiting for authoritarian-led forces to make irrecoverable mistakes is risky, but may be our only path back.

“We have to hope they fuck up. And I think they are fucking up, but then they're trying to cover up the fuck up...we also have to have an organized opposition to point the spotlight on it and to focus it.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [20:27]

11. Final Thoughts

• MacWilliams ends with a blend of realism and pessimism about the current trajectory, emphasizing the difficulty of reversal but also the necessity of continuing to fight for democratic norms.

“It's depressing with a smile.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [22:47]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On why authoritarianism matters:
  “Your political attitudes and your political opinions will reflect an authoritarian outlook much more than they are not likely to.”
  — Matthew MacWilliams [02:34]

• On American attitudes toward democracy:
  “People want this. This is actually what people want and the voters are getting what they want...even younger generations to a larger degree are inclined to support this type of governance.”
  — Sam Stein [15:36]

• On breaking the cycle:
  “I sure as hell do. How do we beat it?...It's so much greater than that. It's so much larger...you have to look at where the weaknesses are in the authoritarian opposition...”
  — Matthew MacWilliams [18:04]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:22 — Introduction to the “one weird trait” predicting Trump support
• 02:08 — Authoritarianism defined as the trait in question
• 03:16 — Authoritarianism explained in detail
• 05:30 — Trump’s rhetoric and appeal to authoritarian voters, from the golden escalator speech onward
• 07:01 — The migration of authoritarians across party lines
• 09:06 — Polling questions that reveal Americans’ attitudes toward strongman leadership
• 10:16 — Scale of communications and social media’s role in activating authoritarianism
• 14:03 — Demographic succession and generational decline in pro-democracy attitudes
• 16:15 — Path dependence and increasing rewards for supporting authoritarianism
• 20:27 — Prospects for reversing the authoritarian trend
• 22:47 — Closing remarks and the challenge of “depressing with a smile”

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Summary Tone & Takeaways

The episode moves briskly but with gravity, combining wonky insights and sobering statistics with some dark humor. MacWilliams’ warnings are clear: authoritarianism is a persistent disposition in American life, its activation is context-dependent, and Trump’s success lies in centering, amplifying, and rewarding those impulses. Democratic resilience is not guaranteed; it will require luck, strategy, and genuine institutional failure on the part of authoritarian rulers. The future demands vigilance.

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Suggested action:
Listeners are encouraged to revisit MacWilliams’ original 2016 Politico piece and follow ongoing research into authoritarianism’s impact on American politics.

Transcript

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[Sam Stein]

Me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bulwark, and I am pleased to be joined by Matthew McWilliams, who is a fellow of the German Marshall Fund. And you might be wondering, well, why are we having Matthew McWilliams on this podcast?

[Matthew McWilliams]

Why are.

[Sam Stein]

Who is this guy?

[Donald Trump (quoted)]

Who is this guy?

[Sam Stein]

So this guy is an oracle, A.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Real life oracle, not of Delphi.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, exactly. In all seriousness, the reason we're Talking with Matthew McWilliams today is because a couple weeks ago in our office Slack, we were debating Donald Trump and why voters have flocked to him in the way they have. And one of our fellow editors here, Hannah Yost, said, you know who we should talk to about this phenomenon is that guy who wrote that thing in politico back in 2016 about how there's one trait that can predict whether you're a Trump supporter. And she pasted the URL and it was to a political magazine story, and indeed it was from January 17, 2016, during the campaign. And it's titled the one weird trait that predicts whether you're a Trump supporter. And that trait is, Matthew, what is it?

[Matthew McWilliams]

It's authoritarianism.

[Sam Stein]

Oh, my. And here we are.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Here we are. And I gotta tell you, when I wrote that thing.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, tell us.

[Matthew McWilliams]

And I used the word authoritarianism, it was like verboten. Now everyone uses it, but when I wrote it, it was like, no, you can't say that.

[Sam Stein]

Use that. Can use that. All right, before we get into the reaction to your piece from 2016. Tell us what the study and findings are based on.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Well, the findings are based on a series of poll questions. And they're there for poll questions now. They're eight, but are used to determine if a person is an authoritarian or not. It's not deterministic, it's probabilistic, which means, you know, if you score high in the authoritarian scale, doesn't mean you're authoritarian, but you might be. You're more likely to be than inclined to be. Yes, you're inclined to be. And what that means is that your political attitudes and your political opinions will reflect an authoritarian outlook much more than they are not likely to.

[Sam Stein]

I suppose we should define what an authoritarian outlook is.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Authoritarian outlook is pretty simple. It is for someone who wants authority, order, doesn't like diversity at all, and will sacrifice liberty, quite frankly, for security. And it is a disposition that gets turned on by fear. It's always out there. There is always a certain percentage of the people who have this disposition, but it gets turned on by fear.

[Sam Stein]

Right now, the time that this was being studied, there was a lot of interest in figuring out why people were flocking to Trump. And there was a lot of theories around it. Oh, are they, you know, poorly educated? Are they poor? Are they white? Is this race based? Is this about, you know, trade? Is this about, you know, the hollowing out of the manufacturing class? And maybe those contributed to it. But why did you jump to the conclusion from this data that, in fact, it was proclivity towards authoritarianism? That was, in fact, what was drawing people to Trump?

[Matthew McWilliams]

Well, you know, I was one of the oldest PhD students in this cosmos, at least. And.

[Sam Stein]

Are you aware of other cosmos?

[Matthew McWilliams]

There might be another multiverse where there's someone that's older. But I was like the Chevy Chase, you know, of my community. And I had come across this book by Mark Ketherington and Jonathan Wyler, Authoritarianism and Polarization in American Politics. Politics. And I was fascinated by it. Really fascinating book. But it was a book that was basically discounted by political science, because who would study authoritarianism? Authoritarianism is dead. And that led me to really study authoritarianism. There are thousands of articles written on authoritarianism coming out of World War II, lots of studies done. And I became more and more fascinated by it and wrote my PhD. Sorry to even mention that, on authoritarianism. And as I was finishing up my PhD, I was listening to Trump. You know, he'd come down the golden escalator, and from his first speech, it was written from an authoritarian perspective. It was written to activate authoritarians.

[Donald Trump (quoted)]

Our country needs a truly great leader and we need a truly great leader now. We need somebody that literally will take this country and make it great again.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Now, I don't know if he knew that, but that's what it was written for. That entire speech, the fear mongering, the divisiveness, the separating to us versus them, the basic othering.

[Donald Trump (quoted)]

When Mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best, they're not sending you, they're not sending you. They're sending people that have lots of problems and they're bringing those problems with us. They're bringing drugs, they're bringing crime, they're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.

[Matthew McWilliams]

I said, well, that's kind of interesting. And then I watched them go through the fall and said, he is really pushing authoritarian buttons. Is he getting a broad enough reach? And he was, because of social media, getting a broad enough reach to reach his audience. And so I came up and said, the question is, is he activating authoritarians? From Hetherington's book, we know or we knew that authoritarians had sorted from all three parties, you know, Republican dependent independents, Democrats into Republican Party. Was he reaching them? Was he activating them? So I put a poll in the field to find out.

[Sam Stein]

Can we stop for a second there? Because you said that they've been sort of sorting into the Republican Party and I want to just maybe play with that a little bit because a lot of the people who came to support Trump, or at least a fair number, I should say, were previously Democrats. And I think a lot of people have drift, difficulty sort of conceiving the idea that people who identified at Democrats also have a proclivity or an inclination to support authoritarian tendencies, when in fact that is true. And Trump did activate that.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Yes, he did. My first study on this, the polling, I looked at the primary audience, so I was focusing on Republican primary voters. But you're absolutely right. And before the culture wars started, early 60s, it appears that authoritarians were pretty well sorted across parties. They started moving towards the Republican Party. This is Hetherington's book. Over time, they haven't all sorted into the Republican Party at all. But what I looked at, because this was the primary, I was doing this in the November and December of 2015. I put the poll in the field. I was interested in the Republican Party itself and authoritarians in the Republican Party. And was Trump galvanizing that base? Because if he could activate and galvanize that base, it was a big Enough base that he could carry and win the primary. So that's what I focused on.

[Sam Stein]

Now, how much of this is all subconscious versus overt pining for authoritarianism? No one's going to say outwardly. Not no one, but few people will say, outwardly, yes, I really want an authoritarian. Although I will say, actually now it is sort of in vogue for some people to say, yes, we need a strongman. But at the time, it really wasn't. So how much of this has surprised you that people are gravitating to this? Or was this always some sort of subconscious yearning that people had?

[Matthew McWilliams]

It's always there. And actually, if you look at polling, some basic questions, not authoritarian questions, but attitudinal questions.

[Sam Stein]

What are some of those questions?

[Matthew McWilliams]

Oh, I agree or disagree. We need a strong leader who pays no attention to Congress or the courts to make decisions for us. That's one of the key ones. That's on the World Values Survey. It's done around the country. It's a way to measure.

[Sam Stein]

That's a pretty. That's a pretty big red flag right there.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Yeah. And, you know, and when I did this nationally, it was like 34%. It's probably up to 38, 39% now. Strong leader. So there are questions like that that are always answered in that way. The press is the enemy of us. That number has grown because it gets stoked. Right. Authoritarians get activated, but it's always out there. The authoritarianism is always out there. The question is if it's activated or not.

[Sam Stein]

So it's always out there. And there have been historical contexts in America where it has been attempted to be activated, but it hasn't been successfully activated, at least not at this level. So what was it about this moment, this person, that made it successful, whereas others in the past maybe weren't?

[Matthew McWilliams]

Yeah, I think that's a really good question. It's all about scale of communications, I believe.

[Sam Stein]

So you think this is a perfect combination of authoritarianism impulses and social media platforms and a charismatic figure?

[Matthew McWilliams]

Boom.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Or. I don't know. Charismatic is one way to describe it. I think it's an authoritarian who just knows how to push buttons.

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[Matthew McWilliams]

Knows how to push the right buttons. You go back to 1919, 1920. A Palmer Mitchell, the Attorney General. He was the authoritarian. You know, we had the Palmer raids back then under Wilson. He wanted to be president. He was doing all the things. His othering were communist. Right. He was doing all those things. But it wasn't reaching scale. Or you had McCarthy another perfect example. He reached some scale. But there were institutions that said no. There was that important hearing where he always said, have you no.

[Sam Stein]

Have you no shame? Yeah.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Have you no shame? And obviously no one has shame anymore. So there are those limiting factors that. But with Trump, he. And using social media, he was able to reach that audience. And that social media platform was really supported by the 7 o' clock, Fox, all the cable news channels, because they would cover Trump when he would come out, this is 2015, early 2016. And he would go out, he would say, you know, go to my social media account, give them the thing. And he brought them into his echo chamber. So there was siren call, it reached scale, it was on target, it activated the authoritarian base.

[Sam Stein]

I should have done my homework, but I didn't.

[Matthew McWilliams]

That's okay. I will not fail you.

[Sam Stein]

Thank you. I appreciate that. Thank you. Have we, from a statistical standpoint, a polling standpoint, have we seen an uptick in people since Trump became president the first time to now? An uptick in people who identify or have exhibited characteristics that would suggest they are favorable towards authoritarianism?

[Matthew McWilliams]

No, I mean, it's fairly stable construct. It changes over time, but that time is not political time. It's more generational time. But what we've seen, however, there's another thing. I don't know if we want to get into this. Underneath this sort of the. It's really underneath it's the mirror image of this and it's a thing called demographic succession.

[Sam Stein]

Let's get into it.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Yeah. What that is is I'm an old Guy. Right. You've mentioned that I'm more than 60 plus. And in America, people who are more than 70 plus septuagenarians, the greatest generation, others, 65% of them are consistent supporters of democracy. When measured five different polling questions by comparison, 18 to 39 year olds, only 24% of them are consistent supporters of democracy. So as people like me age out and go into that other multi universe, the younger people replace us. And these younger people have much lower scores democracy scores, which means that the environment for an authoritarian leader or dictator or anyone oligarch who wants to get power, it becomes more and more likely that they will or can. And it's something, you know, you go Back to Madison Federalist 63, he talked about the infection of the violent passions and how self interested men would try to take over the republic and destroy it or bend it to their wishes. Basically that's 63. And there are times when that has almost occurred in this country. It's becoming more and more likely that it can, unfortunately.

[Sam Stein]

That's really uplifting.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Yeah, usually people end up crying after they listen to these. All right, your audience.

[Sam Stein]

I want to grapple with what my colleague JVL often writes about. And it's hard for people to sort of stomach it, but I think it's worthwhile to confront, which is maybe the reason that Trump has maintained his popularity level even amidst all this is because people want this. This is actually what people want and the voters are getting what they want. And as hard as that is for people who prefer the liberal democracy order to understand, as you know, even younger generations to a larger degree are inclined to support this type of governance. Is that something that people need to grapple with, that in fact we're getting what a good chunk of our population actually asked for?

[Matthew McWilliams]

Absolutely. I mean that is so spot on. And there is throughout American history there's this tension between progressive moving forward and looking backwards. The paranoid style of politics Hofstader talks about, that really goes back into that. But Roger Smith and others have written about this and there is that percentage of people out there who for this, this is good when they're activated, but even worse, there's something else going on. They've got the demographic succession, but you also have this critical juncture in American history right now which we're at, and that is this has turned into a path dependent process. And what I mean to that there are increasing returns for capitulating and supporting Trump and they're increasing punishments for not. And that's called a critical path, path Dependent process. And that system has been set up now, which leads to a different historical path. We are on the democratic path now. We're on the authoritarian path. And the question is, how far does it go?

[Sam Stein]

Well, the other question is, how do you get off of it?

[Matthew McWilliams]

Right. Very, very, you know, in 2019, 2020, I was doing interviews and I'd written the book, and the question was, can we stop the rot in democracy, the rot under the fabric of democracy, the rot in the supports, the foundation of democracy. Now, can we stop the spiraling descent into authoritarianism? Because when path dependent process kicks in and you get these increasing returns, so all these different sectors of society are capitulating. Why? Because it's in their financial, economic, social power interest to do it. When that happens, everything starts to fold. So how do we beat this? Those of us who care about democracy, I sure as hell do. How do we beat it? And you have to look at, you know, it's not all this, oh, this, oh, the Democratic Party, they have the wrong message. They have to use these magic bean words. They can't use these magic bean words. It's so much greater than that. It's so much larger. And you have to look at where the weaknesses are in the authoritarian opposition, which is beyond authoritarians Right now. Now you have the fellow travelers who've joined on because it's good for them. They get rewards for doing it. Right. Right. And first, it's a minority of the population, which means that's why the next election's so important. If you rig that next election, okay, then we're going to stay on this path. Many of the people in power are incompetent, they're destructive. They're destroying important parts of the system we all depend on. They're cruel, they're greedy, they're creating collateral damage. And if that collateral damage gets large enough and you can focus on it, you might be able to beat them in an election. I mean, you should. You should have enough votes to beat them in an election. So if an election is held and it's fair and it's not totally rigged, you have a chance to defeat them as a ballot box. But it was like 19, 20, 20. People kept asking me, okay, Biden wins, it's all over. I said, no, this is. We're on a path right now where it's several election cycles to turn this back. Right.

[Sam Stein]

It's not an elixir. 2020 was not an elixir. But you're saying essentially that some of this is really dependent on them being Incompetent and failing and people kind of naturally turning against them because you can't rely on institutions or even, to a degree, the opposition party itself. I mean, they have to focus the public attention, but you can't rely on them to do the heavy lifting. And that's a very. That's like a very disconcerting proposition that really what we're waiting for is for them to fuck up.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Well, we have to have. We have to hope they fuck up. And I think they are fucking up, but then they're trying to cover up the fuck up. Right, Cover up the fuck up.

[Sam Stein]

You know, the numbers, firing the people.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Yeah. So we can create our own reality now. It's going back, but we also have to have an organized opposition to point the spotlight on it and to focus it. And the media plays a critical role in this, and they fail. I'm sorry. I watch some of these things, and it's like people talking about, well, mayors need to partner with the Trump. No, no. You have to call the National Guard being used in a police action as wrong. We don't need that. And you have to give an alternative. I think Pritzker did a pretty good job with the alternative. Why? You're cutting hundreds of millions of dollars from policing and doing this instead. I think Newsom making fun of Trump. That's a very pop culture, very smart way of doing it.

[Sam Stein]

Are you like the Newsom approach?

[Matthew McWilliams]

Well, I like it. I also think it has to be focused on what really matters to people. And you mess with my Social Security, people in the villages are going to go, how did that happen? And then you've got to blame it if you're Trump on someone else. Right, right.

[Sam Stein]

The deep state, you know?

[Matthew McWilliams]

Yeah, the deep state. But you are the deep state. Yeah.

[Sam Stein]

Existing are the deep state. Yeah.

[Matthew McWilliams]

But, you know, how does that play out, Sam? It plays out Trump needs. If things start unraveling. And I think the whole Bureau of Labor Statistics and others, their great fears on their side that some bad things are coming down the pike that they have to explain away. There's only one way to get out of it. If it really turns bad for him. And I think you probably know that as well as I do. You have to have a bigger problem. If you got a mess and you can't clean it up, you have to make the mess bigger. So how does he make the mess bigger?

[Sam Stein]

Well, there's the whole Wag the Dog phenomenon, Right?

[Matthew McWilliams]

Yeah. One of my favorite movies.

[Sam Stein]

It's a good one. Well, this is depressing. I appreciate. I appreciate it, but it's depressing.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Depressing with a smile. Yeah, I appreciate that.

[Sam Stein]

Thank you so much for doing this. Matthew McWilliams of the German Marshall Fund. He also wears a number of other hats, but we're not going to get into that. But I would encourage people to go back and read his 2016 piece for Politico and get his books. And Matthew, thank you so much. Really appreciate it.

[Matthew McWilliams]

Oh, thank you. It was very nice meeting you. And hello to all of your viewers.

[Sam Stein]

Thank you.

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