Bulwark Takes – The One Trait That Predicts Trump Support
Guest: Matthew MacWilliams (Fellow, German Marshall Fund)
Host: Sam Stein (Managing Editor, The Bulwark)
Date: August 30, 2025
Main Theme & Purpose
This episode dives into the psychological and political dynamics behind Donald Trump’s enduring support, focusing on one key predictor identified by Matthew MacWilliams back in 2016: authoritarianism. MacWilliams elaborates on the nature of this trait, how it has been activated in recent American politics, and what it means for the future of American democracy.
“The reason we're talking with Matthew today is because...there's one trait that can predict whether you're a Trump supporter.”
— Sam Stein [01:22]
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Origins of the Authoritarianism Insight
- MacWilliams recounts his influential 2016 Politico article, which argued that authoritarian tendencies are the single most reliable predictor of Trump support.
- At the time, even the term “authoritarianism” was controversial in political science circles.
- He drew on the work of Mark Hetherington and Jonathan Weiler (“Authoritarianism and Polarization in American Politics”), whose ideas were initially marginalized.
“When I wrote that thing...and I used the word authoritarianism, it was like verboten. Now everyone uses it, but when I wrote it, it was like, no, you can't say that.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [02:17]
2. Defining Authoritarianism
- Authoritarianism is described as a disposition favoring authority, order, and uniformity, with an aversion to diversity.
- Those with authoritarian tendencies will “sacrifice liberty, quite frankly, for security,” and their orientation is “turned on by fear.”
“It is for someone who wants authority, order, doesn't like diversity at all, and will sacrifice liberty, quite frankly, for security. And it is a disposition that gets turned on by fear.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [03:16]
3. Why Trump? Why Now?
- MacWilliams explains Trump’s rhetoric (from his first escalator speech and beyond) was tailor-made to activate authoritarian personalities: fear-mongering, divisiveness, and “us versus them” language.
- Trump's message found a broader audience than prior American authoritarians, due to the increased reach of social media and amplification by media channels like Fox News.
“Fear mongering, the divisiveness, the separating to us versus them, the basic othering–that entire speech…was written to activate authoritarians.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [05:47]
4. The Migration of Authoritarians Across Parties
- Historically, authoritarian-leaning voters were distributed across parties, but over decades, have become increasingly concentrated among Republicans. However, there remain authoritarians among Democrats and independents as well.
- Trump was able to galvanize authoritarian-leaning Republican primary voters but also activated some who were former Democrats.
“[Before] the culture wars started, early 60s, it appears that authoritarians were pretty well sorted across parties. They started moving towards the Republican Party...they haven't all sorted into the Republican Party at all.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [07:30]
5. The Subconscious Tug of Authoritarianism
- Many Americans subconsciously yearn for a “strong leader.” MacWilliams cites polling (from the World Values Survey) showing a significant minority of Americans agree with statements like, “We need a strong leader who pays no attention to Congress or the courts.”
- This type of attitude is persistent, with roughly one-third of the public sympathetic to such views.
“When I did this nationally, it was like 34%. It's probably up to 38, 39% now. Strong leader. The press is the enemy of us. That number has grown because it gets stoked.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [09:28]
6. Scale and Technology: What Made Trump Different
- Past authoritarians (like Palmer Mitchell in 1919, or Sen. Joe McCarthy in the 1950s) never reached a similar scale due to a lack of communications infrastructure and resistance from powerful institutions.
- Trump’s use of social media—and mainstream media's willingness to give him oxygen—let him bypass gatekeepers and build a direct channel to millions.
“With Trump, and using social media, he was able to reach that audience...there was siren call, it reached scale, it was on target, it activated the authoritarian base.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [12:20]
7. Demographic Succession and Erosion of Democratic Support
- MacWilliams introduces the idea of “demographic succession,” highlighting that older Americans are more consistent supporters of democracy than younger ones.
- Only 24% of 18–39 year olds are consistently pro-democracy, as compared to 65% of the over-70 crowd.
- As generations shift, the opportunity for authoritarian leaders grows.
“18 to 39 year olds, only 24% of them are consistent supporters of democracy...the younger people have much lower democracy scores, which means that the environment for an authoritarian leader...becomes more likely.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [14:03]
8. Path Dependence and the Allure of Authoritarianism
- Once an authoritarian track is established, it’s difficult to reverse course—what political scientists call a “path dependent process.”
- There are increasing rewards and decreasing penalties for supporting Trump, while opposition grows more costly.
“There are increasing returns for capitulating and supporting Trump and they're increasing punishments for not. And that's called a critical path, path dependent process.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [16:15]
9. Can We Turn Back? What Might Change the Path
- Political reversals are unlikely to come quickly or easily.
- Turning away from authoritarianism may require the ruling coalition to fail spectacularly or create enough “collateral damage” that public opinion shifts.
“If that collateral damage gets large enough and you can focus on it, you might be able to beat them in an election...But it was like 19, 20, 20. People kept asking me, OK, Biden wins, it's all over. I said, no, we're on a path right now where it's several election cycles to turn this back.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [18:51]
10. Role of Media and Opposition
- The media, opposition parties, and civic actors must spotlight failings and offer clear alternatives.
- Waiting for authoritarian-led forces to make irrecoverable mistakes is risky, but may be our only path back.
“We have to hope they fuck up. And I think they are fucking up, but then they're trying to cover up the fuck up...we also have to have an organized opposition to point the spotlight on it and to focus it.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [20:27]
11. Final Thoughts
- MacWilliams ends with a blend of realism and pessimism about the current trajectory, emphasizing the difficulty of reversal but also the necessity of continuing to fight for democratic norms.
“It's depressing with a smile.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [22:47]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On why authoritarianism matters:
“Your political attitudes and your political opinions will reflect an authoritarian outlook much more than they are not likely to.”
— Matthew MacWilliams [02:34] -
On American attitudes toward democracy:
“People want this. This is actually what people want and the voters are getting what they want...even younger generations to a larger degree are inclined to support this type of governance.”
— Sam Stein [15:36] -
On breaking the cycle:
“I sure as hell do. How do we beat it?...It's so much greater than that. It's so much larger...you have to look at where the weaknesses are in the authoritarian opposition...”
— Matthew MacWilliams [18:04]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 01:22 — Introduction to the “one weird trait” predicting Trump support
- 02:08 — Authoritarianism defined as the trait in question
- 03:16 — Authoritarianism explained in detail
- 05:30 — Trump’s rhetoric and appeal to authoritarian voters, from the golden escalator speech onward
- 07:01 — The migration of authoritarians across party lines
- 09:06 — Polling questions that reveal Americans’ attitudes toward strongman leadership
- 10:16 — Scale of communications and social media’s role in activating authoritarianism
- 14:03 — Demographic succession and generational decline in pro-democracy attitudes
- 16:15 — Path dependence and increasing rewards for supporting authoritarianism
- 20:27 — Prospects for reversing the authoritarian trend
- 22:47 — Closing remarks and the challenge of “depressing with a smile”
Summary Tone & Takeaways
The episode moves briskly but with gravity, combining wonky insights and sobering statistics with some dark humor. MacWilliams’ warnings are clear: authoritarianism is a persistent disposition in American life, its activation is context-dependent, and Trump’s success lies in centering, amplifying, and rewarding those impulses. Democratic resilience is not guaranteed; it will require luck, strategy, and genuine institutional failure on the part of authoritarian rulers. The future demands vigilance.
Suggested action:
Listeners are encouraged to revisit MacWilliams’ original 2016 Politico piece and follow ongoing research into authoritarianism’s impact on American politics.