The Redistricting Twist No One Saw Coming (w/ Dave Wasserman)

Summary

Bulwark Takes – The Redistricting Twist No One Saw Coming

Host: Tim Miller (The Bulwark)
Guest: Dave Wasserman (Cook Political Report, Senior Editor and elections analyst)
Date: November 12, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the unexpected developments in the ongoing "mid-decade redistricting war," highlighting a dramatic series of legal and political twists that have altered House redistricting dynamics. Tim Miller and Dave Wasserman break down surprising Democratic victories, the shrinking partisan margin in redistricting, and the ramifications of new state court rulings—centered around a recent court decision in Utah that could secure Salt Lake City a congressional district for the first time in years.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The State of Play: Redistricting Landscape (00:53)

• GOP Motivation:
  • Republicans wouldn't be pushing so hard for mid-decade redistricting if they felt secure about the House in 2026. (01:40)
  • “Republicans want to sandbag this—add some insurance policy against a blue wave.” — Dave Wasserman (01:46)
  • Historical average: President’s party tends to lose 23 House seats in midterms, but heavy gerrymandering and voter self-sorting have changed the competitive landscape.
• Self-Sorting and Gerrymandering:
  • Tim notes a major reason for fewer competitive races: Americans self-sorting into like-minded communities, not just partisan map-drawing. (02:51)

2. Recent Democratic Wins: Where the Map’s Changed (03:00–07:00)

Ohio (03:52)

• Republicans aimed to erase Democratic seats, but activists threatened a petition and forced a compromise, leading to a much less partisan map:
  • “That really influenced Republicans to cut a deal ... I count that as only like a half a seat gain for Republicans on net.” — Dave Wasserman (04:34)
  • Tim gives credit to local Democratic leaders who led the fight.

Kansas (05:29)

• GOP abandoned efforts to unseat Democrat Sharice Davids.
• Election results prevented further GOP gerrymandering.

California (05:29)

• Prop 50: Passed by a “massive margin,” giving Democrats a shot at picking up at least three GOP seats, possibly five, especially in the Central Valley and San Diego.
  • “Democrats drew a map in California that serves them both offensively and defensively.” — Dave Wasserman (06:17)
• Unlike Texas, which was already safe for the GOP, California’s changes shore up Dems’ vulnerable seats and open offensive opportunities.

Virginia (06:29)

• Democrats won big in both the Attorney General and House of Delegates races — likely to allow a Democratic gerrymander (potentially 9-2, up from a 6-5 delegation).
• This gain could offset GOP wins in Florida or Indiana.

Utah (08:11, 19:29, 20:13)

• A court win is expected to create a Dem-favoring 3-1 map, centering Salt Lake City in its own district for the first time in years.

3. Net Impact: Is Redistricting Still a GOP Edge? (08:11–11:15)

• When combining Republican and Democratic gains across Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, California, and Utah, the expected GOP advantage shrank to nearly zero (“a net of nothing”—Tim Miller at 08:11).

• Key quote:

  • “So, that’s a net of nothing. Basically zero to one for Republicans.” — Tim Miller (08:11)

• Prospects for even or near-even maps depend on further changes in VA, MD, FL, IN.

  • “If both sides maximize their gerrymandering advantage... it might shake out to two or three extra seats for Republicans.” — Dave Wasserman (14:21)

4. Strategic Behavior: How Recent Democratic Wins Shifted GOP Calculus (10:27)

• After seeing Dems’ success, Republicans are more cautious about stretching their own advantage and risking incumbent losses:
  • “No one wants to be in a two and a half point race regardless.” — Dave Wasserman (11:26)

5. Key Battlegrounds Moving Forward (15:30–16:43)

• The true House majority will hinge less on gerrymandered states and more on competitive districts in:
  • Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa
• Only three Republicans remain in “Harris seats” (i.e., House districts won by Biden):
  • Brian Fitzpatrick (PA), Mike Lawler (NY), Don Bacon (NE).

6. Legal Threats and the Voting Rights Act (16:43–19:29)

• The biggest existential threat to Democratic seats is the potential reversal of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by the Supreme Court.
  • “It could mean the elimination of a dozen majority minority seats in the Deep South. I don’t think it’s hyperbole to call the potential apocalyptic.” — Dave Wasserman (19:17)
• Louisiana is readying for this possibility; most states would need the Court to move early to redraw maps before 2026.

7. Utah: A Rare “Good Governance” Breakthrough? (19:29–21:56)

• The Utah case is “a food fight,” with a state judge’s ruling undoing the GOP’s old ‘pizza’ map that splintered Salt Lake City voters. (20:13)
• Utah may net its first solid Democratic seat in years, but GOP state legislators are furious and may retaliate (even talking impeachment for the judge). Political stability is uncertain.
  • “In most cases these state supreme courts have become extensions of partisan politics. That hasn't been the case in Utah, so it makes it a fascinating exception.” — Dave Wasserman (21:56)

8. Rethinking Redistricting Fairness for 2030 (22:44–23:57)

• Dave’s new research explores a “middle ground” for drawing districts: aligning boundaries with existing counties.
  • “If both parties hate that solution, it might mean it’s fair.” — Dave Wasserman (23:54)
• Such rules could help major cities (like Salt Lake or Nashville) have representation, but might cut both ways politically depending on the state.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Republicans... want to sandbag this—add some insurance policy against a blue wave.”
  — Dave Wasserman (01:46)

• “That really influenced Republicans to cut a deal that led to a map that made two districts a little worse for Democrats in Cincinnati and Toledo, but made a district in Akron slightly better for Democrats. So I count that as only like a half a seat gain for Republicans on net.”
  — Dave Wasserman (04:34)

• “Democrats drew a map in California that serves them both offensively and defensively.”
  — Dave Wasserman (06:17)

• “So, that’s a net of nothing. Basically zero to one for Republicans.”
  — Tim Miller (08:11)

• “No one wants to be in a two and a half point race regardless.”
  — Dave Wasserman (11:26)

• “It could mean the elimination of a dozen majority minority seats in the Deep South. I don’t think it’s hyperbole to call the potential apocalyptic.”
  — Dave Wasserman (19:17)

• “In most cases these state supreme courts have become extensions of partisan politics. That hasn't been the case in Utah, so it makes it a fascinating exception.”
  — Dave Wasserman (21:56)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:53 — State of play: why redistricting war is so hot
• 03:52–07:00 — Rundown of recent state-level wins/changes (Ohio, Kansas, California, Virginia, Utah)
• 08:11 — Net seat gains/losses across all states recap
• 14:21 — Scenarios if both parties maximize their redistricting advantage
• 16:43 — Competitive districts that will really decide the House
• 19:17 — What overturning the VRA could mean for Black-majority districts
• 20:13–21:56 — The unique Utah “ungerrymander” and what it signals
• 22:44–23:57 — Ideas for fairer district boundaries in 2030

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Tone & Language

The episode is fast-paced, analytical, and conversational, balancing deep political nerdiness with a clear, accessible breakdown of big-picture trends. Tim Miller maintains a wry, often sardonic wit, while Dave Wasserman delivers precise, data-rich commentary, sprinkled with cautious optimism for reform and realism about partisanship and inertia.

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Suggested Resources

• Cook Political Report Redistricting Tracker (cookpolitical.com): For up-to-date analysis and rankings on congressional districts.
• Previous Bulwark Takes Episode: Further discussion of Voting Rights Act issues on Tim’s podcast with Chris Hayes.
• Cook Political House Race Ratings: Dave recommends donating/supporting swing-seat candidates in tough districts.

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For listeners new to redistricting news, this episode clarifies why shifts in a handful of states could reshape not only partisan control in 2026, but also the future rules of American political competition.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Republicans and the White House would not be pursuing a mid decade redistricting war if they felt great about their chances of holding the House to begin with in 2026. And Democrats only need three seats from their current vantage point. There are 215 seats effectively. And so Republicans want to sandbag this, add some insurance policy against a blue wave. Now the historical average in the post war era is that the president's party loses 23 seats in midterms. But I think the old rules might not apply anymore given the evisceration of competitive districts not just from gerrymandering in recent years, but also the self sorting of the American electorate into heavily red and blue places, which leaves a lot less purple turf to draw into competitive seats. So Democrats are are contending with a small playing field of races to begin with and Republicans are trying to play keep away. And even with the Texas redraw, Democrats had a chance. Now they've strung together a surprising string of victories.

[A]

We have self gerrymandered a lot. I like to bring that up a lot of times at the good governance meetings with my pro democracy folks is that gerrymandering is bad. Maybe after this, you know, race to the bottom here the next few years in 2030 we can get some federal rules or something to get rid of it. But like, but a big reason for why we have fewer races right now as you mentioned is like the humans, us humans have self self sorted us to such a degree. But so, so let's look at some of these states. So you here is your tweet this morning that caught my attention. You wrote between Ohio, Kansas, California and Virginia and now this huge win in Utah. Democrats have strung together an impressive streak of victories over the past few weeks that have surprisingly pushed the mid decade redistricting war closer to a draw. I think folks that are viewing this are pretty familiar with what happened in Texas and how the California ballot initiative last week sort of offset that. So looking at these other three states you mentioned, Ohio, Kansas and Virginia. Other four states rather Ohio, Kansas, Virginia and Utah. Just give us a quick update on what's happened in those places.

[B]

Yeah, that's right. And look two months ago and we have a redistricting [e-mail], i encourage everyone to go look at. I would have told you that Republicans were in position to net five to eight seats from redistricting before 2026, which meant that Republicans could basically triple their cushion heading into the midterms today. I think it's more likely a low single digit gain. The first piece of good news Democrats got was in Ohio and we knew that Ohio was going to draw a new congressional map because per their state constitution the current one expires after four years. That theoretically going to give Republicans an opportunity to draw two Democratic districts into oblivion. But the threat of a petition drive gathering 250,000 signatures to block a new gerrymander from taking effect, it really influenced Republicans to cut a deal that led to a map that made two districts a little worse for Democrats in Cincinnati and Toledo, but made a district in Akan slightly better for Democrats. So I count that as only like a half a seat gain for Republicans on net.

[A]

Yeah. And shout out in Ohio. You should also mention this like the huge fight, I mean again where Democrats are out there like we're thirsty for fighters, we're unhappy with what's happening in Washington at a local level. It's Minority Leader Donnie Isaacson there that was like and others that kind of led this fight that got Republicans to back down and saved a seat or two there. Anyway. Now going ahead to Kansas, it's true.

[B]

And Kansas, we saw Republicans abandon their effort to draw Shareese Davids out of her seat. And then in the elections last Tuesday, we saw California by a massive margin approve Prop 50, which gives Democrats an opportunity to win between three and five Republican seats. It guarantees them at least three. I think they're probably going to pick up Darrell Issa's district, no matter where Darrell Issa runs in the San Diego area. And then the district that becomes a toss up is David Valadao's district in the Central Valley. So and unlike Texas, I should point.

[A]

Out one of the two Trump impeachers who are left. So I rarely get a chance to shout out a Republican on here these days. But Valada was a Trump impeacher who has survived, that's true.

[B]

And he's had to survive from, you know, against both the left and the right. But a difference between California and Texas, even though on its face they offset each other, Democrats actually shored up a lot of their own vulnerable seats in California, including Adam Gray in the Central Valley, Derek Tran outside la. So in Texas, Republicans didn't really have vulnerable seats to begin with. Democrats, I think, you know, drew a map in California that serves them both offensively and defensively. And then in Virginia, Democrats won Not only the AG's race, which was in some doubt, but also a massive margin in the House of Delegates, 64 to 36. These victories should help them on a very tight timeline to put a constitutional amendment before voters to gerrymander the map in Democrats favor. It's very likely Democrats can draw a 9 to 2 map in Virginia, which would be a three seat net versus today where Democrats have a, has a, have a 6 to 5 lead in the delegation. The most vulnerable Republicans in that scenario would be Jen Kiggins, John McGuire, Rob Whitman, and that would, would put Democrats in position to offset potentially what Republicans are able to do in, in Florida and maybe Indiana. Now, North Carolina's map likely costs Democrats one seat. Missouri's map, unless it's overturned by voters, will cost Democrats one seat in Kansas City. So you add all of these up and now Republicans are poised for a very minor gain from redistricting, unless, for example, Virginia Democrats falter and they don't get a new map in Maryland either. But they, they did get a major victory in this Utah case.

[A]

Yeah, just since you just laid it all out there and then we'll get to Utah, we'll put this on the screen. Because you put it for folks who are trying to follow all the states in the up and down. Like you tweeted it quite clearly. If you kind of look here at what you posted, you're basically looking at from Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, about a six seat gain for Republicans, about a five and a half seat gain from Democrats. You know, if you look at what the likely outcomes would be in California and Utah, some. So that's a net of nothing. Basically zero to one for Republicans. And then you project out ahead, as you just mentioned, Florida and Indiana could do some redistricting that would help Republicans. Virginia you mentioned as a biggest variable, but you just said Maryland also. Maryland could potentially offset that for the Democrats. So what if the Florida and Indiana versus Virginia and Maryland, like what's that total shakeout to if both sides maximize their, you know, gerrymandering advantage?

[B]

Yeah, well, you know, Maryland Democrats, they tried to redistrict Andy Harris out of office right after the census. It was denied by a Maryland lower court. It could still face an uphill battle in the state Senate where the Democratic state Senate president doesn't seem to like the idea of revisiting the map. And then the state Supreme Court where Larry Hogan appointed a majority of, of those, those judges. And so Maryland would be a one seat game for Democrats. But it's, it's not as likely as Virginia perhaps at this point and then Indiana. JD Vance has made two trips to pressure Republicans to draw a new map. But I have to say after Tuesday's results, Republicans might have second thoughts about diluting many of their own districts. And I think that was clear in Kansas, in Indiana, to eliminate Frank Mervin in the Gary Hammond area, that would not be difficult for Republicans to do. But to eliminate Andre Carson in Indianapolis which is a 2 to 1 at least Democratic seat, then a lot of surrounding Republicans would have to take on those voters. I'm not sure in this climate Republicans even want to dilute their districts down from Trump +20 to Trump +12.

[A]

It has impacted their behavior. Like the wins last Tuesday impacts their behavior too because they get, they get a little bit more scared about what, how they're redistricting in a, worst case, in a blue wave, you know, scenario might hurt some of the incumbents.

[B]

That's right. And we should note that there was a very clear pattern in Tuesday's results. You know, when you look at the House of Delegates, Democrats won everything that was either a Harris district or Trump plus four and a half or less. And Republicans won every district that was Trump 4 1/2 and above. So it's not as if Democrats have made inroads into deep Republican territory. They have in some lower turnout special elections, but still, it's enough to give Republicans pause about taking on more Democratic voters because they're risk averse.

[A]

If you're an R+7, you're looking at that and you're like, boy, if the R+4 and a half went down this year, who knows what the economy looks like next year. It just starts to get a little close for comfort maybe.

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[B]

Governor DeSantis basically overruled the redistricting committees in his own party last time around in 2022 and imposed a 20 to 8 map. At the time that looked like a really aggressive map for Republicans. Given how far right Florida has moved since then, it now looks like a good map for Democrats. And so if DeSantis and Republicans revisit that with minimal policing from the state Supreme Court, then they could eliminate up to three Democratic seats. In my estimation, it would require some sacrifice on Republicans part in South Florida, but it's very possible they could do that. So we're watching those states. The other place to watch is Louisiana because Republicans are hoping the Supreme Court will strike down section 2 of the VRA in time for them to be able to push back their election calendar and impose a map that could cost Democrats either one or both seats they currently hold in the state.

[A]

And they could certainly draw one down here that would carve out both, potentially depending on how aggressive they want to get. I want to get to the VRA next. That's where I was going. But just kind of to sum up, assuming that the Democrats move forward in Virginia, even if Republicans did max out in Florida and Indiana, you're really looking at like an extra two or three seats from where there are now, which could be meaningful, like you said, in a small field. But it becomes a much more manageable playing field for Democrats if they want to take back the House next year. To go from potentially, how it looked in a worst case scenario was that they would have to take out 12, 13 Republicans and now maybe it ends up more like five or six. And that before we get to the VRA part, is that. Does that feel right to you? As a summary, that does.

[B]

And Democrats have enough winnable seats in states that aren't going to be redrawing their maps that they could win the House by a decent margin. And by today's standards, a decent margin might be winning 225 seats, not 235.

[A]

Or how many Republicans are in Harris seats anymore. That just is like the starting ground.

[B]

Like, yeah, they're only three. Brian Fitzpatrick, Pennsylvania, Mike Lawler in New York, and Don Bacon, who's retiring in Omaha. And so, you know, Democrats are the favorites in that Omaha district. I think they're the underdogs against Fitzpatrick, given how strong an incumbent he is. They're probably an even shot against Mike Lawler. But we're really looking at the states that are still, that still have maps that are competitive. So Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, these are the places. And Iowa, these are the places where the House majority is going to be won or lost because they have multiple competitive districts. And take Pennsylvania for example. You've got three Republican incumbents who are going to face tough races. Scott Perry, Ryan McKenzie, Rob Bresnahan. And Democrats have pretty strong recruits in all those districts. Arizona, where Juan Siskamani and Dave Schweikart's open seat are and Tom Barrett in Michigan. So these are, these are places where Democrats have a very narrow but very clear path to the majority.

[A]

So you mentioned the vra. I talked this a little bit on the podcast with Chris Hayes earlier. Folks can check that out. And I think that's the other big worry for the Democrats essentially. If the Supreme Court overturned the Voting Rights act in next spring, next May's session, I assume you tell me if any of this is wrong, that none of the even the red estates would have time at that point to redistrict before 2026. It becomes an issue for 2028 potentially. I guess there's a chance that the Supreme Court could rule though earlier and the winter and the non traditional kind of winter session, they just basically did this on the gay marriage ruling yesterday, just dismissing the Kim Davis's petition to overturn gay marriage if they were to move quicker. You mentioned Louisiana. I mean like what is a worst case scenario for Democrats? And what are you kind of hearing out there from folks as far as what states could potentially try to jam something through after a rolling on that?

[B]

Well, I don't run SCOTUS blog and I'm really a judicial legal eagle.

[A]

However, I'm sure the nerds in these states though I'm sure the Alabama redistricting nerds you hear from though you're monitoring their, their, you know, election Twitter. So anyway, that's for sure.

[B]

But I think there is a difference between the Supreme Court declining to take up the gay marriage case and then the timeline for them to issue a potential landmark ruling on Section 2 of the VRA. I don't expect that we would get it until late spring or early summer. That said, you know, could you see the White House apply pressure to some of these Southern states to redraw their maps in anticipation of the Supreme Court issuing a ruling? I haven't heard rumblings about that so far. And many of these states are about to open up their, their filing periods in, in, you know, just a matter of, of a month or two. So it is something to watch. Louisiana is the one state that does seem to be preparing for this possibility in time for 2026. But this gives the White House and Republicans an opportunity to lay a groundwork for, for 2028. And it could mean the elimination of a dozen majority minority seats in the Deep South. I don't think it's hyperbole to call the potential apocalyptic for, for majority black districts in those states.

[A]

All right, last thing. Something that, well, I guess maybe the MAGA partisans can't be happy about, but something that the good governance people can be happy about that are maybe upset with some of the Democrats efforts on redistricting and that the Democrats are concerned about the House could be happy about, which is that, that aforementioned case in Utah. So that's a state ruling, I guess that ended up, you know, overturning the partisan maps in Utah that had kind of pizzaed out from Salt Lake City, dividing up Salt Lake City so that, you know, there would be four Republican districts. Now the new map looks I think pretty clearly like it will be a 3 to 1 with a Democrat representing Salt Lake City. What exactly happened there and how can we just get that to happen everywhere in 2030? Because it seems like they're doing things right in Utah.

[B]

Well, keep in mind this was a, this has been a food fight in Utah for a very long time and voters only very narrowly by a fraction of a point approved a ballot initiative that led to this ungerrymandering by a, by a judge. Now Republicans in the legislature are apoplectic and I think they are going to, to be raising hell about this ruling in the months to come. There's talk of impeaching the judge. So this could be a back and forth that goes on for years.

[A]

So you're saying it's not all just like, it's not just all happy, happy joy, joy out there in Utah with a, you know, good governance and fair districts.

[B]

Well, Utah has been the most Trump skeptical Republican state, but it is still a very pro Trump state. By, by the numbers, right? He, he won a solid majority of the votes in 2024. So this is a place where, where Republicans have, have been, you know, unwound by, by a constitutional amendment that was very narrowly approved and they're going to fight back against it. Perhaps they get their way by 2028, but it's a state level fight and, and as we've seen the US Supreme Court sidestep the issue of partisan gerrymandering. These fights are increasingly coming down to state courts and in most cases these state supreme courts have become extensions of partisan politics. That hasn't been the case in Utah, so it makes it a fascinating exception.

[A]

All right, Dave Wasserman, overcooked political, like you said. Go. You can check out the redistricting tracker and the other race rankings, House race rankings, Senate race rankings. I always say to partisans on either side, I mean these days I'm hearing mostly from partisan. Democrats are asking like, who do I support? How do I decide what candidates to go to? I always say go to the Cook political race rankings. Look at the candidates that are likely on your opposite party. So if you're a Democrat, go to the candidates that are in your likely House Republican races, because those are the stretches, seats, they might not get as much money from the national parties. And those, you know, are the candidates that. That maybe could use your support. So there you go. That's my. That's a. I use you guys for shorthand for people.

[B]

I do want to make one more point because I think you raised something interesting, please.

[A]

About why.

[B]

Why don't other states pursue kind of logical redistricting in time for 2030? I am currently embarking on a research project, a fellowship that examines a middle ground for redistricting. And it would seem logical to base districts around geographic boundaries that already exist. For example, Salt Lake county can comfortably house one congressional district. That's what the judge decided. And in some states, that would work in Democrats favor exhibit A, Utah. But in other states, if you were Tennessee, fire that. And perhaps Tennessee. But in other states, if you were to require districts to be wholly within counties, let's say you forced districts in Illinois to be entirely within Cook County. That would hurt Democrats because they couldn't stretch Chicago into rural downstate Illinois like they do today. So it would penalize one party in some states, it would penalize another party in the other states. And if both parties hate that solution, it might mean it's fair.

[A]

Well, I'm glad you brought that up as a bonus because I'm for that. And I've always said that. I was like, you get into a lot of nerdy arguments over this what is fair district, what is not a fair district. And to me, it's just like, look, man, I mean, as you mentioned, this is on the Democratic side, but if Nashville and Salt Lake City don't have a rep, like, that's. That's probably a sign that it's not a fair. It's not a fair map given how important they are to their states. But on the inverse of that, if there's a huge swath of southern Illinois that doesn't have a rep either because they're repped by somebody four hours north in Chicago, that's not fair either. So I think that'd be a good way to look at it. That's Dave Wasserman. Check out CookPolitical.com and we'll be bringing you back. If any crazy shit happens between now and the time the Filings open. All right.

[B]

I'm sure it will. Thanks, Tim.

[A]

All right. Thanks man.

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