Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes – "There’s a Ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza War. But Is This Really the End?" (w/ Dan Shapiro)

Date: October 14, 2025
Host: Sam Stein (The Bulwark)
Guest: Dan Shapiro (Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel)

Overview

This episode of Bulwark Takes delivers an in-depth analysis of the historic ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza war, featuring reflections on the emotional, political, and strategic implications with former Ambassador Dan Shapiro. Sam Stein and Shapiro discuss the events leading up to the ceasefire, the difficult negotiations, the role of U.S. leverage—both under Presidents Biden and Trump—the regional dynamics, and the daunting challenges ahead in the so-called "phase two" of peace efforts.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Immediate Impact of the Ceasefire

• Historical and Emotional Weight

  • The return of Israeli hostages after 738 days marks a major turning point and an emotional release for many Israelis.
  • "For the first time in two years, you feel this sense of people beginning to exhale." (Dan Shapiro, 01:15)
  • Despite the ceasefire, trauma persists for both Israelis and Palestinians due to significant loss of life, displacement, and continued suffering in Gaza.

• Palestinian Experience

  • Palestinians in Gaza also feel relief at the end of military operations, but face immense losses and hardship.
  • Humanitarian assistance is beginning to flow, but full-scale reconstruction is still a distant hope.

Why Did a Ceasefire Take So Long?

• Prolonged Negotiations & Shifting Leverage

  • Negotiations spanned most of 2024, with multiple parties (Hamas, Israel, U.S.) shifting positions and conditions, often influenced by changes in U.S. leadership and elections.
  • "At various times you'd have Hamas holding out for very extreme terms ... at various times, you'd have Prime Minister Netanyahu first sort of agree ... and then add new conditions." (Dan Shapiro, 03:02)

• Political Considerations

  • Both Hamas and the Israeli government timed their expectations with global events, especially the U.S. election.
  • President Trump exercised more direct leverage on Netanyahu after a failed Israeli strike on Hamas leaders in Doha, which shifted the regional balance and galvanized Arab states to push for an end.

The Question of U.S. Leverage – Biden vs. Trump

• Contrasting Approaches
  • President Biden, though wielding traditional U.S. leverage such as pausing certain weapons shipments, faced domestic political constraints.
  • Trump, meanwhile, was able to act more unilaterally, and his unique relationship with Netanyahu gave him leverage that forced an end to the conflict after the Doha incident.
  • "Trump could actually give an instruction and an order, which is really what he did after the Doha strike. And Netanyahu had nowhere to go." (Dan Shapiro, 06:00)

Evaluating Trump’s Tactics

• Extreme Proposals as Negotiating Tactics
  • Proposals like the "Gaza Riviera" were unrealistic but may have spurred regional actors (Egypt, Qatar, Saudis) to engage in order to prevent worse outcomes.
  • The Gaza City operation, though opposed by the Israeli military, increased pressure on Hamas and possibly contributed to shifting their position.
  • "I can accept the argument that that military pressure was part of changing Hamas calculus and maybe even that of Qatar and Turkey." (Dan Shapiro, 08:17)

The Ambiguity of “The End”

• Challenges of Moving Beyond Phase One

  • Remaining hostages, the disarming of Hamas, and the creation of new governance in Gaza are all formidable obstacles.
  • Regional buy-in, especially from Arab governments, is fragile and complicated by political optics—for example, Netanyahu’s absence from the Egypt summit due to both regional and domestic pressure.
  • "Unless Hamas is really defeated and taken off the field ... you couldn't get any of the other things that we want to see happen." (Dan Shapiro, 10:25)

• Ongoing Risks

  • Hamas is attempting to reassert control in parts of Gaza, which could stall or reverse progress on stabilization.
  • Postwar trauma and unresolved grief—both for returning hostages and families of the deceased—continue to shape public mood and politics.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Israeli and Palestinian Trauma:

  • "Both societies are totally traumatized. That's not going to change overnight." (Dan Shapiro, 15:55)
  • "The beginning of exhaling after two years, but it's not the end of the trauma." (Dan Shapiro, 18:02)

• On U.S-Israel Relations:

  • "There’s no reason that allies and partners as we are with Israel can't have very tough conversations ... But when we disagree, that doesn't mean you throw the entire relationship out." (Dan Shapiro, 22:11)

• On Political Repercussions in Israel:

  • Description of public anger at Netanyahu—e.g., his name being "booed mercilessly" at a hostages rally when mentioned by a U.S. speaker. (Dan Shapiro, 18:02)

Important Timestamps

• 01:15 – Emotional impact in Israel and Gaza from hostage return and ceasefire.
• 03:02 – Detailed breakdown of why a ceasefire took so long: negotiations, political pressure, election timing.
• 06:00 – Comparison of Biden's and Trump's leverage over Israel; unique context under each administration.
• 08:17 – Discussion of Trump's proposals, their strategic effect, and how they reshaped regional calculations.
• 10:25 – Challenges facing phase two: disarming Hamas, future governance, and regional buy-in.
• 15:55 – The continuing trauma and challenges for both Israeli and Palestinian societies post-ceasefire.
• 18:02 – Vivid illustrations of Israel's emotional response and political fallout.
• 22:11 – U.S.-Israel relations: the need for tough dialogue between allies.

Conclusion

This episode gives an honest, nuanced appraisal of the ceasefire as both a moment of relief and uncertainty. While the return of hostages has provided some closure, the path forward remains perilous, with deep-rooted trauma, political challenges, and the specter of Hamas’s survival. The discussion underscores that, though the war may technically be over, the peace process is just entering its most difficult phase, requiring extraordinary diplomacy and resilience on all sides.