Bulwark Takes Episode Summary: "TIDES TURNING? Trump Is LOSING GROUND On His Strongest Issue!"

Release Date: April 23, 2025
Host: Sam Stein, Managing Editor at The Bulwark
Guest: Andrew Egger, Author of Morning Shots

Introduction

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, Sam Stein engages in a comprehensive discussion with Andrew Egger about recent shifts in public opinion regarding former President Donald Trump's handling of immigration—a cornerstone of his political identity. The conversation delves into new polling data, explores the nuances of voter sentiment, and examines the broader implications for Trump's political future.

Recent Polling Data on Trump's Immigration Handling

Sam Stein kicks off the discussion by presenting intriguing data from two recent polls:

• Reuters/Ipsos Poll:

  • Approval: 45%
  • Disapproval: 46%
  • Significance: Marks the first legitimate poll showing Trump’s immigration stance is "underwater."

• YouGov and The Economist Poll:

  • Most Important Issue: Only 9% of respondents prioritize immigration, behind economy-related concerns like inflation.
  • Overall Handling:
    • Approve: 45%
    • Disapprove: 50%
  • Among Trump Voters:
    • Disapprove: 14%
    • Support for Deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia:
      • Yes, bring him back: 50%
      • No: 28%
    • Among Self-Identified Trump Voters:
      • Should return Garcia: 18%

Notable Quote:
[00:52] Sam Stein: "I'm old fashioned like that. A couple days ago we had Reuters Ipsis and they asked people how Trump was doing on immigration. 45% approve, 46% disapprove."

Analysis of Trump's Waning Support on Immigration

Andrew Egger provides context for the polling numbers, suggesting that while immigration has long been Trump's stronghold, his support is eroding outside his base. He notes:

• Strategic Democratic Focus: Democrats have targeted the economy and other areas where Trump is vulnerable, diverting attention from immigration.

• Under-the-Radar Support Weakness: While there is broad support for stricter immigration controls, specific policies proposed by Trump, such as deportations, garner less support when scrutinized.

Notable Quote:
[03:35] Andrew Egger: "When you actually start to drill down on the specific things that the Trump administration might do to do about that, that support gets a lot softer."

Impact of Specific Immigration Actions on Public Perception

The deportation case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia becomes a focal point:

• Public Reaction:
  • 50% believe Trump should bring Garcia back despite a court order.
  • 28% oppose bringing him back.

Andrew Egger emphasizes that Trump's actions, such as defying court orders, are alienating even some of his staunch supporters:

Notable Quote:
[05:03] Andrew Egger: "The more he loses support on the immigration question, the smaller and more fragmented base he has to stand on the court question and vice versa."

Broader Implications for Trump's Political Standing

Sam Stein raises the question of whether Trump's initial success in clamping down on border crossings has shifted public anxiety towards more severe and unsettling immigration issues. However, Andrew Egger counters this by describing immigration as a "thermostatic issue"—emotionally charged but fluctuating based on current events rather than deeply held beliefs.

Notable Quote:
[06:43] Sam Stein: "Is Trump's done. Is it because Trump's done a decent job on the border and suddenly attention is drifting to other immigration stuff?"

Andrew Egger responds by tracing the historical narrative:

• First Term Challenges:
  • Trump: Faced backlash over family separations and inhumane treatment at the border.
  • Biden: Encountered criticism over uncontrolled border crossings, leading to public frustration with both administrations.

Notable Quote:
[07:35] Andrew Egger: "The same Reuters poll... 83% [public] says, 'Don't defy the Supreme Court, Donald Trump.'"

Conspiracy Theories and Public Beliefs

Towards the episode's end, Stein and Egger briefly touch upon public belief in conspiracy theories among Trump voters:

• COVID Vaccine Misconceptions:
  • "Deadliest vaccine ever created": 18% of Trump voters believe this.
  • "Vaccines cause autism": 13% believe this.

Notable Quote:
[08:53] Sam Stein: "Vaccines have been shown to cause autism. What percentage of Trump voters definitely believe that's true?"

[08:55] Andrew Egger: "Oh, lower I know. Okay."

Concluding Insights

Andrew Egger underscores the significance of Trump's declining popularity on immigration, his once steadfast base now showing fractures. He ties this decline to broader issues of rule of law and America's global credibility:

• Rule of Law Concerns:
  • 83% believe the president must obey Supreme Court rulings.
  • 57% oppose withholding funding from universities based on disagreements.
  • 56-59% express concerns over presidential control of cultural institutions and America's global standing.

Sam Stein highlights that while immigration is only 9% the most important issue for voters, the erosion of Trump’s strength in this area presents Democrats with an opportunity to convert a traditional stronghold into a vulnerability.

Notable Quote:
[10:21] Sam Stein: "What this shows is they shouldn't feel defensive about immigration, that they can in fact bring his numbers down, turn one of his strengths into a weakness."

Final Thoughts

The episode concludes with Stein emphasizing the interconnectedness of Trump's immigration stance with broader political and legal challenges. As his support on this issue wanes, it not only diminishes his traditional base but also exacerbates vulnerabilities related to rule of law and institutional credibility.

Key Takeaways:

• Trump’s Immigration Approval Dips: Recent polls indicate a decline in approval for Trump's handling of immigration, challenging his status on a key issue.

• Shifting Voter Priorities: While immigration remains a concern, it's not the top priority for voters, allowing Democrats to shift focus to more pressing economic and healthcare issues.

• Implications for Future Campaigns: The erosion of support on immigration could hinder Trump's political strategies and necessitate a reevaluation of his core policies.

• Public Sentiment on Rule of Law: Strong public consensus favors adherence to Supreme Court rulings and opposes executive overreach, undermining Trump's defiance narratives.

For more insightful analyses and polling data discussions, subscribe to Bulwark Takes and stay informed with The Bulwark team.