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Transcript26 lines

[00:00]
A
Hey, everybody, Tim Miller from the Bulwark here. I was on with Nicole yesterday and my friend John Heilman and I said we wanted to give some of that to you because it was so good. We talked quite a bit about Trump's political struggles, what's behind them, why he's struggling, classic John Heilman style. Give you a little behind the scenes during the, during the show, we're all talking on live tv on a panel. And during the show, Heilman still texting me additional takes about how Magnus had learned helplessness. He said he texted me, after this many years of being a rubber stamp, they've forgotten how to be anything else. Hell, yeah. I totally agree with that. He's just such a funny guy. I love how it's a little, little behind the curtain for you. After that, we do some just pure politics talk. Senate map talk with Jessica Taylor over Cook. She's great. And I want to kind of expand remarks a little bit on the Michigan race because there were two videos yesterday that caught my eye and I want to play them for you. This one comes from Senate Majority pac and there might be some side effects. Let's watch. There comes a time in life when things start to slow down, when you just don't have the same energy you had 20 years ago. But there's a way to bring some excitement back.
[01:24]
B
What has not helped is the fact that the United States hasn't strongly said that military intervention is still on the table.
[01:33]
A
Introducing endless war from Mike Rogers.
[01:37]
B
Boy, it's really hard when you have to justify every minute of the war. I think for the president, with endless
[01:43]
A
war, you can feel like yourself again.
[01:46]
B
I think when people think about boots on the ground, they're thinking big maneuver elements, divisions, brigades, battalions. No one's talking about that. Although I don't think we should eliminate it.
[01:54]
A
Side effects may include death, economic hardship and global instability. Some patients have reported fuel shortages, which may cause inflation. Endless war has not been proven to make Americans any safer. Ask your doctor if endless war is right for you. I love this ad. I love it. I love it because it's doing something I feel like I've been begging for and shouting for, for months now, which is what recapture the mantle of the anti war party. If you are the Democrats, like the Democrats continue to have this thing where they feel like they've got to butch themselves up because the Republicans code is like the strong pro military party and the Democrats, you know, don't or whatever. This is out of date thinking. This is out of date thinking for the Democrats. Okay, now there's a lot of voters out there that it's wrong. But for some reason, see, like the Democrats is like the establishment, you know, kind of military industrial complex party. And Trump and as the anti war party. It was stupid. They're all coming to their senses now, I hope, but you got to bang them over the head with it. And like I'm going to be probably towards the middle of most Democrats on actual like military policy choices. But like the Republicans handed you one on a platter right here. So take it. They started the stupidest war imaginable. So be a hundred percent against it. Mock them, ridicule them. Talk about how humiliating it is that they are left to beg Iran for a deal. They've been defeated by people. They're like, these are molders. They're in caves. They don't even have communication. We don't even know how to talk to them. Their economy is collapsing. We're gonna be able to take them out in one day. Will they beat you? The guys in the caves and who was cheerleading at the whole way? Mike Rogers. Mike Rogers loves the Iran war. Wanted to do the Iran war before Trump. Trump did it, was excited about it. Now he's heading back in there. He wants to be back in the Senate. To rubber stamp it. To spend more of your money on the stupidest war imaginable. The. That is making life worse for Americans. That's making us less safe. That's. That's ruining our alliances abroad. That's Mike Rogers brand. Endless war should be Mike Rogers brand. Trump rubber stamp loves stupid wars. Great ad, Great ad. There's no caveats. There's no like, well, you know, the Iranians do have a history of supporting terrorists.
[04:32]
C
Like.
[04:32]
A
Yes, of course they do. Just go for the jugular. That ad is good. More. Want more ads like that. I could even punch that ad up a little bit, but I'll take it. Endless war. That's really. I think it's the first ad I've seen that's made me happy in months from the Democrats. So great job. Senate majority pac, thumbs up. Over on the Republican side, here's. This is a very long video. We're just gonna play a little bit of it. It's a weird video that Mike Rogers put out after the primary on Tuesday.
[05:02]
B
If you're among the majority of Democratic voters that woke up on Wednesday feeling, well, hopeless, because the person who won does not represent your values, well, just know there is still hope. Michigan deserves a senator who is ready to sit with you. Hear from you and represent you. The parents across Michigan who want an education system that sets up their kids for success, you have a home with us. To grandparents across Michigan who are heartbroken from watching their kids and grandkids leave the state, you have a home with us. To young people who are looking for real solutions to solve our housing affordability crisis, you have a home with us. To working families who don't want higher taxes and lower paychecks. Well, you have a home with us. And to the vast majority of people across Michigan who do not want to throw their support behind a campaign filled with anger, divisiveness, calls for violence, and the views that are out of touch with your values, well, you have a home with us. The fight is far greater than just left versus right. The fight is for the very soul of our nation. Over the next 90 days, I'm going to work hard to earn your trust, to earn your support and earn your vote. We have a state to save. Michigan. Let's get to work.
[06:22]
A
What is with I hate everything about this. Watch this on mute. Just play it on mute while I talk. The color palette is terrible. They are washed out. Mrs. Rogers isn't talking. Looks unhappy. Mike Rogers doesn't really look happy. Does anybody smile in this? It's like, I feel like just looking at this, watching it on mute, I feel like I'm in trouble. Like, why am I in trouble with mom and dad? I get in trouble on the report card. I get a bad report card. You know, did the police call? Did they catch me? Because I did the doorbell ditch to our neighbors the other night? Did he find my porn and weed stash underneath the bed? Like, why are you. Why is. What is this? It feels like we're in a very rich person's home in the suburbs that has no soul and I'm watching them yell at their children. It gives me the willies. Substance of that isn't any good either. This idea that, like, oh, Democrats are gonna come vote for him. You have to do more than just fear mongering about. Abdul Al said to win over some Democrats, like, how about meet the Democrats somewhere on some issue, Talk about how the Democrats were right in their criticisms of Trump on some issue. No, he can't do that because he's just Trump rubber stamp. Trump has bigger hair than him now. He was going for kind of the same haircut as Trump, but now Trump has the wig. You know, this isn't a place for opium. I'm more bullish on Abdul Al said electoral chances than I think Most people that I'm hearing from, I just. Mike Rogers lost Alyssa Slotkin narrowly in a really good year for Republicans. 2024. This is going to be a really bad year for Republicans. His campaign looks terrible to me. We'll see. I'm not guaranteeing anything. You know, I think that obviously there's some risks with Siad. We've talked about that. My, my sense is that this, this could actually end up being even a potentially comfortable win for Al Said. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Great ad. Senate Majority pac, Endless War, Mike Rogers, stick it. Stick around for me. Nicole Wallace, John Heilman and more. Bye bye.
[08:47]
C
Subscribe to the feed under 100 days out from the midterm elections in November, and Donald Trump is struggling mightily on his central promise to the country and especially his voters that he would deliver better than any Democrat on affordability and creating a strong economy. When asked about his party's prospects in November, Trump surprisingly acknowledged voters growing anger. But as to who voters should direct that anger at, it couldn't be him. It's not his fault. Here's a little bit of his sit down interview with Punchbowl News.
[09:24]
A
If I don't run, will those people go out and vote? And that's the one thing I can't. I'm going to ask them to. A lot of them are very angry at Republicans, to be honest with you.
[09:37]
B
I don't know.
[09:37]
A
I mean, they're angry at Republicans, but they're not angry at me.
[09:41]
B
Why?
[09:41]
A
They're not angry at me, but they are angry at Republicans.
[09:47]
C
I don't know why would there be angry Republicans? I mean, they're not mad at me. Just the Republicans over there who are so independent from me. It's nonsensical. And the polls tell a very different story. Donald Trump is currently seeing his approval rating hit all time historic lows for him and for any president. The latest Quinnipiac poll finds only 32% of all Americans approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president. A majority of voters don't believe that Trump is focused on the problems facing Americans. New reporting in Politico finds that Trump is essentially hanging Republicans out to dry politically when it comes to his deeply unpopular policies, especially the war with Iran. Quote, the regular messaging guidance the White House and other parts of the administration provided to Republicans at the start of the war has dwindled to almost no communication at all in recent weeks on how to talk to voters about Iran. That's according to six people with direct knowledge of the matter who spoke anonymously. Briefings on campaign trail guidance are scarce and tone deaf, according to multiple House Republicans. A tone deaf response from the Trump administration to American struggles and concerns is where we begin the hour with some of our favorite experts and friends. HUC News senior political columnist and national affairs analyst John Heilman's back. Also joining us, political analyst and host of the Bulwark podcast, Tim Miller is back and the host of Politics Nation. The president of the National Action Network, the Reverend Al Sharpton is here. Tim, I kind of love, I don't even know if it's cognitive dissonance that might seem like too big of a assumption to make about his cognitive capacity, but I love the, I don't know why they're mad at Republicans. They're off here doing whatever they do or when they're literally crying as they fall in line behind Donald Trump on the Senate floor today.
[11:48]
A
Yeah, it is. Who are the people that he's talking to? Also on the Mar A Lago pool deck, they're mad at Republicans and not him.
[11:58]
C
On the Minster golf course, the omelet bar. Yeah. The people that he sees like while he's putting. Yeah.
[12:06]
A
You see in focus groups from the Texas, I just, this is like just a classic Trump only megalomania story. Honestly, it's, this is, he doesn't care about these people. He doesn't really care about the midterms. In a different interview yesterday, I believe it was Fox yesterday, they were kind of asking him a similar line of questioning about whether he's going to be out there during the midterms. He's like, I'm out here now in Nevada. Right. I don't have to be. Seems like a waste of my time, you know. And he was very dismissive about this campaign event which was a disaster in its own right in Nevada yesterday. And he just, he's moved like he doesn't care about them. And, and it's an easy story to tell himself, comforting story to tell himself. The people still like him. They're mad at these other amorphous Republicans. He can't answer Jake's follow up question because, like, what would even the substantive answer be? I guess maybe that they're not giving him what they want on the SAVE Act. I'm just like trying to put myself in his warped brain, which is very challenging. But you know, the Republicans are doing everything they want besides, besides the SAVE Act, I guess.
[13:10]
C
I mean, Tim, what's interesting to me is how slow Republicans are to respond to the thing that they've been held hostage by for a decade, which is politics. And the politics of the MAGA movement have reshaped how we cover politics. They've reshaped how we cover elections. They've reshaped how we cover primaries. They've reshapedi mean they've reshaped how MAGA media programs their programs. They've reshaped how other media outlets staff up their contributors. The only people who haven't responded, though, to the change, which is that MAGA media is now a toxic political brand. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats are at 51%, Republicans are at 45%. That is a loser. So the MAGA brand is now losing to the generic Democratic brand. How would the country be if Democrats take control of Congress again, a plurality say better off. If Democrats win 38 to 33, how voters are doing financially versus a year ago. This was Donald Trump's one time sort of ace in the whole political issue. And 49% of Americans say they're worse off. Just 34% say they're better off. Again, that 34 down near his rock bottom. Poll numbers of 32 to 34% in Quinnipiac and AP this week. What is your sense of the inability to respond to the thing that has shaped the Republican Party more than anything else? And that is the politics of maga, which right now suck.
[14:33]
A
They're kind of in a vice, I think, these Republican candidates, Right, and Trump has left them there. Right, because we're in this situation where it's, it's really bad. And those poll numbers are really bad, as my colleague Sarah calls it, where we're down at the Bush line hurts my feelings a little bit on two levels. But anyway, we're there. And. But it's got to get lower. Like, one thing that is different from Bush is that when Bush's numbers went down after Katrina, as the war started to turn, as the economy started to get bad in the second term, they went down kind of with everybody. Like, Democrats went from 12% support to 2 and independents from 50 to 20 and Republicans from 90 to 70. Like, it went down across the board. That's still not really happening. And with the core MAGA base, that, that is the remaining 32. And so you have these candidates who I do think are scared of, you know, if they try to get away from him too much, then they'll doom themselves. If they stick with him too much, they'll doom themselves. It's really bad in the plains, in the farm country, and Roger Marshall's out there talking about In Trump We Trust, he's been the best. And I'm like, why? You know, Roger Marshall was never a big kind of neocon war person. He's out there defending the Iran war. Why? I think it's because it's like, well, if I distance from them, it still might not be enough and it might backfire because the MAGA base will get mad at me and I'm not going to be welcome at the Capitol Hill Club. People are going to get mad at me, right? So why not just ride the course and see if it works out? And I think that's what a lot of them are doing. It doesn't really explain the Bill Cassidy of it. And Rev left that word of self respect, which I think is pretty important. Cassidy today to me looked like a man that had lost all self respect to a completely broken shell of a man. Cuz the quote that really stuck with me from the speech was like, people like before he even explained why he's gonna confirm Blanche, he was like, people are gonna criticize me for this. They always do.
[16:32]
C
There are some very real and growing signs today that some of the biggest stars in the Democratic Party have real crossover appeal, pulling in high profile support from across the political aisle even in these polarized times. In Georgia, two Republican mayors are breaking with their party to endorse Senator Jon Ossoff. Our friend Greg Bluestein reports this in the Atlanta Journal Constitution. Quote, Valdosta Mayor Scott James Matheson and Tifton Mayor Julie Smith are not household names. But their willingness to cross party lines signals a weakness for Republican U.S. senate nominee Mike Collins, who has struggled to unite his party and broaden his appeal following a bruising primary fight. Valdosta Mayor Matheson of Valdosta has cited his long record of working with Senator Ossoff says this quote, I will take heat for this endorsement and it does not matter. There's no way I can turn my back on this relationship. The voters put me in here to do a job and that man has been absolutely incredible. That man being Senator Ossoff. I want to bring in Cook political report editor for Senate and governor's races. Jessica Taylor. John and Tim are still here. Tim Miller, how do you see the map today?
[17:45]
A
Not too. I'm a little bit more bullish on Texas than Jessica. There definitely is a Lucy with the football element to it. But I think it's important to remember Beto never led in the polls. Like, like there was a lot of positive vibes around Beto. He raised a lot of money. He was close in the polls. I think a lot of people were excited because it was like, wow, it's Texas. Beto is only down by three. Talarico is consistently leading in the polls. This doesn't mean he's going to win. We've seen poll misses, of course, we just saw one this week in Michigan. But I think that PAX is a pretty uniquely bad candidate. I think the Hispanic numbers, you know, the bottoms falling out for Republicans among Hispanics, I think the Talarico can appeal to kind of the, you know, suburban college women in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, etc. So, you know, I think that that's not, not completely out of the question. I think that Ossoff moving to Georgia in that race, I think that race is over basically. I don't Mike Collins was a horrific nominee, you know, for all the garment rending about some of the Democratic nominee issues. Mike Collins's Twitter feed was like the Twitter feed of a great, of a college aged racist groiper. I mean and I think that's because he handed it over to one of those and, and Jon Ossoff on the other hand, Eric Erickson. And if people don't know him, he's a, he's a pretty conservative, very conservative right wing radio host in the state that's kind of had an on again, off again relationship with Trump, mostly on again. And he was talking, he just was being blunt on the radio show this week around these mayor's endorsements. And he said, hey, like Ossoff, he's like, I know business guys who are Republicans, never voted for a Democrat, but if they need something in the state, they call Ossoff, he calls him back. And I do think that Ossoff has been really good at just kind of that blocking and tackling there in Georgia. So that's where I'm at. I agree with Jessica about Iowa. I think I was in Alaska are places to watch. I mentioned Kansas earlier. I think that's a big long shot. But if you're going to look at a long shot for Democrats, I'd look at Kansas.
[19:45]
C
We recently shifted our rating this week on Kansas as well. So I do think Kansas is coming on the board. Well, there you go. Jessica, thank you so much for joining us today. John Halman and Tim Miller, thank you both so much for spending a Friday afternoon hour with me.

Summary6 min read

Bulwark Takes – “Tim Absolutely LOVES This New Anti-Rogers Ad”

Host: The Bulwark (Tim Miller, Nicole Wallace, John Heilemann, Jessica Taylor, et al.)
Release Date: August 8, 2026

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode of Bulwark Takes features Tim Miller’s lively assessment of the latest political ad wars, with special focus on a new Senate Majority PAC ad targeting Michigan Sen. candidate Mike Rogers and the broader fight for the anti-war mantle. The episode also dissects Republican struggles in the Trump and MAGA era, analyzes the evolving 2026 Senate map, and spotlights cross-partisan moments defining this cycle.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Behind the Scenes: Political Panel Anecdotes

Tim recounts appearing on a live political panel with Nicole Wallace and John Heilemann to discuss Donald Trump’s political decline.
Texting on Set: Heilemann, always sharp with off-camera insights, texted Tim during the taping about Republican learned helplessness:

“After this many years of being a rubber stamp, they've forgotten how to be anything else.” (Heilemann, paraphrased by Tim, 00:36)
Tim describes Heilemann’s style as funny and incisive, pulling back the curtain on how pundits trade real-time analysis.

2. Michigan Senate Ad Wars: The “Endless War” Ad

[01:24–04:31]
Tim spotlights a new Senate Majority PAC ad that uses pharmaceutical spoof tropes to slam Mike Rogers as an “endless war” proponent.
Ad Excerpt:

"Introducing… endless war from Mike Rogers. Side effects may include death, economic hardship and global instability. Endless war has not been proven to make Americans any safer. Ask your doctor if endless war is right for you." (Ad, 01:32–01:54)
Tim’s Reaction:

“I love this ad. I love it. I love it because it's doing something I feel like I've been begging for and shouting for, for months now… recapture the mantle of the anti-war party… The Republicans handed you one on a platter right here. So take it.” (Tim Miller, 02:00–03:15)
Tim argues that Democrats have been slow to reclaim anti-war credibility from Republicans, mistaking old narratives about military strength. He urges robust, unqualified attacks on GOP hawkishness, especially given Trump and Rogers’ records.

Notable Quote:

"Mock them, ridicule them… That is making life worse for Americans. That's making us less safe. That's… ruining our alliances abroad. That's Mike Rogers brand. Endless war should be Mike Rogers brand. Trump rubber stamp loves stupid wars. Great ad. Great ad." (Tim Miller, 03:34–04:05)

3. Mike Rogers’ Response Ad: Tepid and Off-Key

[05:02–06:21]
Tim plays and critiques a lengthy video by Mike Rogers, aimed at disaffected Democrats after the primary.
Content: Rogers’ ad features vague promises of unity, somber family visuals, and a call to “save Michigan.”
Tim’s Critique:

“Watch this on mute... the color palette is terrible... Mike Rogers doesn’t really look happy. Does anybody smile in this?... It feels like we’re in a very rich person’s home in the suburbs that has no soul and I’m watching them yell at their children. It gives me the willies.” (Tim Miller, 06:21)
Tim finds both the aesthetics and the substance uninspiring, arguing that Rogers offers no true outreach to Democrats and remains a “Trump rubber stamp.”
Tim’s bottom line:

“His campaign looks terrible to me… this could actually end up being even a potentially comfortable win for Al Said.” (Tim Miller, 07:30–07:45)

4. Trump’s Political Decline and “MAGALomania”

[08:46–12:06]
Discussion shifts to Trump’s sagging approval and his strategy of distancing himself from the Republican Party’s broader struggles.
Trump Quote:

“They’re angry at Republicans, but they’re not angry at me.” (Donald Trump, interview clip, 09:37)
Nicole Wallace and Tim mock Trump’s self-exoneration and obliviousness to his own unpopularity:

“It’s just a classic Trump only-megalomania story… he doesn’t care about these people. He doesn’t really care about the midterms..." (Tim Miller, 12:06)
Tim observes that Trump’s emotional comfort comes from believing his supporters’ anger is never directed at him, despite polling showing otherwise.
Nicole underscores Trump’s irrelevance to middle America:

“The only people who haven’t responded… are the Republicans in Congress… MAGA media is now a toxic political brand.” (Nicole Wallace, 13:10)

5. Republican Dilemma: Can’t Cut Trump Loose

[13:10–16:31]
Tim explains why GOP candidates remain trapped:

“If they try to get away from him too much, then they’ll doom themselves. If they stick with him too much, they’ll doom themselves. It’s really bad in the plains, in the farm country…” (Tim Miller, 14:33)
Example: Roger Marshall (Kansas) publicly supports Trump’s unpopular Iran war stance despite non-hawkish credentials, out of fear of MAGA backlash.
On party morale and brokenness:

“Cassidy… looked like a man that had lost all self respect… the quote that really stuck with me… people are gonna criticize me for this. They always do.” (Tim Miller, 15:41–16:17)

6. Senate Map 2026: Democratic Opportunities & Crossover Moments

[16:31–19:45]
Tim and Jessica Taylor analyze key Senate battlegrounds:
- Georgia: Republican mayors endorse Jon Ossoff (D), noting his hands-on, bipartisan approach.
  - Notable from Valdosta's mayor:
    
    "I will take heat for this endorsement and it does not matter. There's no way I can turn my back on this relationship. [Ossoff] has been absolutely incredible." (Scott James Matheson, 16:50)
- Texas: Tim is bullish on Talarico’s chances given demographic and polling trends.
- Other Watch States: Iowa, Alaska, and Kansas as potential upsets.
On Crossover Endorsements:

“There are some very real and growing signs today that some of the biggest stars in the Democratic Party have real crossover appeal…” (Nicole Wallace, 16:31)

Memorable Moments & Quotes

Tim on the “Endless War” Ad:

“More, want more ads like that... I think it's the first ad I've seen that's made me happy in months from the Democrats.” (04:14)
Tim on Mike Rogers’ Ad:

“Just looking at this, watching it on mute, I feel like I'm in trouble…” (06:21)
Nicole Wallace on MAGA:

“MAGA media is now a toxic political brand. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats are at 51%, Republicans are at 45%. That is a loser. So the MAGA brand is now losing to the generic Democratic brand.” (13:10)
Heilemann’s “rubber stamp” diagnosis:

"After this many years of being a rubber stamp, they've forgotten how to be anything else." (00:36, paraphrased by Tim Miller)

Important Timestamps

00:36–01:24: John Heilemann’s “rubber stamp” take and political panel banter
01:24–04:31: “Endless War” anti-Rogers ad discussion and Tim’s advocacy for anti-war messaging
05:02–07:45: Tim’s breakdown and critique of Mike Rogers’ campaign ad
08:46–12:06: Analysis of Trump’s political disconnection and declining approval
13:10–16:31: The “vice” GOP candidates are trapped in and party malaise
16:31–19:45: Senate map analysis with Jessica Taylor and news of Republican defections toward Democrats

Summary

This lively episode is a roadmap to understanding the current campaign dynamics in Michigan and beyond. Tim Miller’s enthusiasm for strong, clear Democratic messaging (especially anti-war) is infectious, and his critiques pull no punches—whether aimed at GOP campaign aesthetics, Republican messaging paralysis under Trump, or Democratic missed opportunities. With insights from Nicole Wallace, John Heilemann, and analyst Jessica Taylor, listeners receive a granular, often humorous take on what’s moving the 2026 midterm cycle, all through the sharp lens of Bulwark’s politics-first ethos.

Loading summary

Transcript26 lines

[00:00]
A
Hey, everybody, Tim Miller from the Bulwark here. I was on with Nicole yesterday and my friend John Heilman and I said we wanted to give some of that to you because it was so good. We talked quite a bit about Trump's political struggles, what's behind them, why he's struggling, classic John Heilman style. Give you a little behind the scenes during the, during the show, we're all talking on live tv on a panel. And during the show, Heilman still texting me additional takes about how Magnus had learned helplessness. He said he texted me, after this many years of being a rubber stamp, they've forgotten how to be anything else. Hell, yeah. I totally agree with that. He's just such a funny guy. I love how it's a little, little behind the curtain for you. After that, we do some just pure politics talk. Senate map talk with Jessica Taylor over Cook. She's great. And I want to kind of expand remarks a little bit on the Michigan race because there were two videos yesterday that caught my eye and I want to play them for you. This one comes from Senate Majority pac and there might be some side effects. Let's watch. There comes a time in life when things start to slow down, when you just don't have the same energy you had 20 years ago. But there's a way to bring some excitement back.
[01:24]
B
What has not helped is the fact that the United States hasn't strongly said that military intervention is still on the table.
[01:33]
A
Introducing endless war from Mike Rogers.
[01:37]
B
Boy, it's really hard when you have to justify every minute of the war. I think for the president, with endless
[01:43]
A
war, you can feel like yourself again.
[01:46]
B
I think when people think about boots on the ground, they're thinking big maneuver elements, divisions, brigades, battalions. No one's talking about that. Although I don't think we should eliminate it.
[01:54]
A
Side effects may include death, economic hardship and global instability. Some patients have reported fuel shortages, which may cause inflation. Endless war has not been proven to make Americans any safer. Ask your doctor if endless war is right for you. I love this ad. I love it. I love it because it's doing something I feel like I've been begging for and shouting for, for months now, which is what recapture the mantle of the anti war party. If you are the Democrats, like the Democrats continue to have this thing where they feel like they've got to butch themselves up because the Republicans code is like the strong pro military party and the Democrats, you know, don't or whatever. This is out of date thinking. This is out of date thinking for the Democrats. Okay, now there's a lot of voters out there that it's wrong. But for some reason, see, like the Democrats is like the establishment, you know, kind of military industrial complex party. And Trump and as the anti war party. It was stupid. They're all coming to their senses now, I hope, but you got to bang them over the head with it. And like I'm going to be probably towards the middle of most Democrats on actual like military policy choices. But like the Republicans handed you one on a platter right here. So take it. They started the stupidest war imaginable. So be a hundred percent against it. Mock them, ridicule them. Talk about how humiliating it is that they are left to beg Iran for a deal. They've been defeated by people. They're like, these are molders. They're in caves. They don't even have communication. We don't even know how to talk to them. Their economy is collapsing. We're gonna be able to take them out in one day. Will they beat you? The guys in the caves and who was cheerleading at the whole way? Mike Rogers. Mike Rogers loves the Iran war. Wanted to do the Iran war before Trump. Trump did it, was excited about it. Now he's heading back in there. He wants to be back in the Senate. To rubber stamp it. To spend more of your money on the stupidest war imaginable. The. That is making life worse for Americans. That's making us less safe. That's. That's ruining our alliances abroad. That's Mike Rogers brand. Endless war should be Mike Rogers brand. Trump rubber stamp loves stupid wars. Great ad, Great ad. There's no caveats. There's no like, well, you know, the Iranians do have a history of supporting terrorists.
[04:32]
C
Like.
[04:32]
A
Yes, of course they do. Just go for the jugular. That ad is good. More. Want more ads like that. I could even punch that ad up a little bit, but I'll take it. Endless war. That's really. I think it's the first ad I've seen that's made me happy in months from the Democrats. So great job. Senate majority pac, thumbs up. Over on the Republican side, here's. This is a very long video. We're just gonna play a little bit of it. It's a weird video that Mike Rogers put out after the primary on Tuesday.
[05:02]
B
If you're among the majority of Democratic voters that woke up on Wednesday feeling, well, hopeless, because the person who won does not represent your values, well, just know there is still hope. Michigan deserves a senator who is ready to sit with you. Hear from you and represent you. The parents across Michigan who want an education system that sets up their kids for success, you have a home with us. To grandparents across Michigan who are heartbroken from watching their kids and grandkids leave the state, you have a home with us. To young people who are looking for real solutions to solve our housing affordability crisis, you have a home with us. To working families who don't want higher taxes and lower paychecks. Well, you have a home with us. And to the vast majority of people across Michigan who do not want to throw their support behind a campaign filled with anger, divisiveness, calls for violence, and the views that are out of touch with your values, well, you have a home with us. The fight is far greater than just left versus right. The fight is for the very soul of our nation. Over the next 90 days, I'm going to work hard to earn your trust, to earn your support and earn your vote. We have a state to save. Michigan. Let's get to work.
[06:22]
A
What is with I hate everything about this. Watch this on mute. Just play it on mute while I talk. The color palette is terrible. They are washed out. Mrs. Rogers isn't talking. Looks unhappy. Mike Rogers doesn't really look happy. Does anybody smile in this? It's like, I feel like just looking at this, watching it on mute, I feel like I'm in trouble. Like, why am I in trouble with mom and dad? I get in trouble on the report card. I get a bad report card. You know, did the police call? Did they catch me? Because I did the doorbell ditch to our neighbors the other night? Did he find my porn and weed stash underneath the bed? Like, why are you. Why is. What is this? It feels like we're in a very rich person's home in the suburbs that has no soul and I'm watching them yell at their children. It gives me the willies. Substance of that isn't any good either. This idea that, like, oh, Democrats are gonna come vote for him. You have to do more than just fear mongering about. Abdul Al said to win over some Democrats, like, how about meet the Democrats somewhere on some issue, Talk about how the Democrats were right in their criticisms of Trump on some issue. No, he can't do that because he's just Trump rubber stamp. Trump has bigger hair than him now. He was going for kind of the same haircut as Trump, but now Trump has the wig. You know, this isn't a place for opium. I'm more bullish on Abdul Al said electoral chances than I think Most people that I'm hearing from, I just. Mike Rogers lost Alyssa Slotkin narrowly in a really good year for Republicans. 2024. This is going to be a really bad year for Republicans. His campaign looks terrible to me. We'll see. I'm not guaranteeing anything. You know, I think that obviously there's some risks with Siad. We've talked about that. My, my sense is that this, this could actually end up being even a potentially comfortable win for Al Said. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Great ad. Senate Majority pac, Endless War, Mike Rogers, stick it. Stick around for me. Nicole Wallace, John Heilman and more. Bye bye.
[08:47]
C
Subscribe to the feed under 100 days out from the midterm elections in November, and Donald Trump is struggling mightily on his central promise to the country and especially his voters that he would deliver better than any Democrat on affordability and creating a strong economy. When asked about his party's prospects in November, Trump surprisingly acknowledged voters growing anger. But as to who voters should direct that anger at, it couldn't be him. It's not his fault. Here's a little bit of his sit down interview with Punchbowl News.
[09:24]
A
If I don't run, will those people go out and vote? And that's the one thing I can't. I'm going to ask them to. A lot of them are very angry at Republicans, to be honest with you.
[09:37]
B
I don't know.
[09:37]
A
I mean, they're angry at Republicans, but they're not angry at me.
[09:41]
B
Why?
[09:41]
A
They're not angry at me, but they are angry at Republicans.
[09:47]
C
I don't know why would there be angry Republicans? I mean, they're not mad at me. Just the Republicans over there who are so independent from me. It's nonsensical. And the polls tell a very different story. Donald Trump is currently seeing his approval rating hit all time historic lows for him and for any president. The latest Quinnipiac poll finds only 32% of all Americans approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president. A majority of voters don't believe that Trump is focused on the problems facing Americans. New reporting in Politico finds that Trump is essentially hanging Republicans out to dry politically when it comes to his deeply unpopular policies, especially the war with Iran. Quote, the regular messaging guidance the White House and other parts of the administration provided to Republicans at the start of the war has dwindled to almost no communication at all in recent weeks on how to talk to voters about Iran. That's according to six people with direct knowledge of the matter who spoke anonymously. Briefings on campaign trail guidance are scarce and tone deaf, according to multiple House Republicans. A tone deaf response from the Trump administration to American struggles and concerns is where we begin the hour with some of our favorite experts and friends. HUC News senior political columnist and national affairs analyst John Heilman's back. Also joining us, political analyst and host of the Bulwark podcast, Tim Miller is back and the host of Politics Nation. The president of the National Action Network, the Reverend Al Sharpton is here. Tim, I kind of love, I don't even know if it's cognitive dissonance that might seem like too big of a assumption to make about his cognitive capacity, but I love the, I don't know why they're mad at Republicans. They're off here doing whatever they do or when they're literally crying as they fall in line behind Donald Trump on the Senate floor today.
[11:48]
A
Yeah, it is. Who are the people that he's talking to? Also on the Mar A Lago pool deck, they're mad at Republicans and not him.
[11:58]
C
On the Minster golf course, the omelet bar. Yeah. The people that he sees like while he's putting. Yeah.
[12:06]
A
You see in focus groups from the Texas, I just, this is like just a classic Trump only megalomania story. Honestly, it's, this is, he doesn't care about these people. He doesn't really care about the midterms. In a different interview yesterday, I believe it was Fox yesterday, they were kind of asking him a similar line of questioning about whether he's going to be out there during the midterms. He's like, I'm out here now in Nevada. Right. I don't have to be. Seems like a waste of my time, you know. And he was very dismissive about this campaign event which was a disaster in its own right in Nevada yesterday. And he just, he's moved like he doesn't care about them. And, and it's an easy story to tell himself, comforting story to tell himself. The people still like him. They're mad at these other amorphous Republicans. He can't answer Jake's follow up question because, like, what would even the substantive answer be? I guess maybe that they're not giving him what they want on the SAVE Act. I'm just like trying to put myself in his warped brain, which is very challenging. But you know, the Republicans are doing everything they want besides, besides the SAVE Act, I guess.
[13:10]
C
I mean, Tim, what's interesting to me is how slow Republicans are to respond to the thing that they've been held hostage by for a decade, which is politics. And the politics of the MAGA movement have reshaped how we cover politics. They've reshaped how we cover elections. They've reshaped how we cover primaries. They've reshapedi mean they've reshaped how MAGA media programs their programs. They've reshaped how other media outlets staff up their contributors. The only people who haven't responded, though, to the change, which is that MAGA media is now a toxic political brand. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats are at 51%, Republicans are at 45%. That is a loser. So the MAGA brand is now losing to the generic Democratic brand. How would the country be if Democrats take control of Congress again, a plurality say better off. If Democrats win 38 to 33, how voters are doing financially versus a year ago. This was Donald Trump's one time sort of ace in the whole political issue. And 49% of Americans say they're worse off. Just 34% say they're better off. Again, that 34 down near his rock bottom. Poll numbers of 32 to 34% in Quinnipiac and AP this week. What is your sense of the inability to respond to the thing that has shaped the Republican Party more than anything else? And that is the politics of maga, which right now suck.
[14:33]
A
They're kind of in a vice, I think, these Republican candidates, Right, and Trump has left them there. Right, because we're in this situation where it's, it's really bad. And those poll numbers are really bad, as my colleague Sarah calls it, where we're down at the Bush line hurts my feelings a little bit on two levels. But anyway, we're there. And. But it's got to get lower. Like, one thing that is different from Bush is that when Bush's numbers went down after Katrina, as the war started to turn, as the economy started to get bad in the second term, they went down kind of with everybody. Like, Democrats went from 12% support to 2 and independents from 50 to 20 and Republicans from 90 to 70. Like, it went down across the board. That's still not really happening. And with the core MAGA base, that, that is the remaining 32. And so you have these candidates who I do think are scared of, you know, if they try to get away from him too much, then they'll doom themselves. If they stick with him too much, they'll doom themselves. It's really bad in the plains, in the farm country, and Roger Marshall's out there talking about In Trump We Trust, he's been the best. And I'm like, why? You know, Roger Marshall was never a big kind of neocon war person. He's out there defending the Iran war. Why? I think it's because it's like, well, if I distance from them, it still might not be enough and it might backfire because the MAGA base will get mad at me and I'm not going to be welcome at the Capitol Hill Club. People are going to get mad at me, right? So why not just ride the course and see if it works out? And I think that's what a lot of them are doing. It doesn't really explain the Bill Cassidy of it. And Rev left that word of self respect, which I think is pretty important. Cassidy today to me looked like a man that had lost all self respect to a completely broken shell of a man. Cuz the quote that really stuck with me from the speech was like, people like before he even explained why he's gonna confirm Blanche, he was like, people are gonna criticize me for this. They always do.
[16:32]
C
There are some very real and growing signs today that some of the biggest stars in the Democratic Party have real crossover appeal, pulling in high profile support from across the political aisle even in these polarized times. In Georgia, two Republican mayors are breaking with their party to endorse Senator Jon Ossoff. Our friend Greg Bluestein reports this in the Atlanta Journal Constitution. Quote, Valdosta Mayor Scott James Matheson and Tifton Mayor Julie Smith are not household names. But their willingness to cross party lines signals a weakness for Republican U.S. senate nominee Mike Collins, who has struggled to unite his party and broaden his appeal following a bruising primary fight. Valdosta Mayor Matheson of Valdosta has cited his long record of working with Senator Ossoff says this quote, I will take heat for this endorsement and it does not matter. There's no way I can turn my back on this relationship. The voters put me in here to do a job and that man has been absolutely incredible. That man being Senator Ossoff. I want to bring in Cook political report editor for Senate and governor's races. Jessica Taylor. John and Tim are still here. Tim Miller, how do you see the map today?
[17:45]
A
Not too. I'm a little bit more bullish on Texas than Jessica. There definitely is a Lucy with the football element to it. But I think it's important to remember Beto never led in the polls. Like, like there was a lot of positive vibes around Beto. He raised a lot of money. He was close in the polls. I think a lot of people were excited because it was like, wow, it's Texas. Beto is only down by three. Talarico is consistently leading in the polls. This doesn't mean he's going to win. We've seen poll misses, of course, we just saw one this week in Michigan. But I think that PAX is a pretty uniquely bad candidate. I think the Hispanic numbers, you know, the bottoms falling out for Republicans among Hispanics, I think the Talarico can appeal to kind of the, you know, suburban college women in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, etc. So, you know, I think that that's not, not completely out of the question. I think that Ossoff moving to Georgia in that race, I think that race is over basically. I don't Mike Collins was a horrific nominee, you know, for all the garment rending about some of the Democratic nominee issues. Mike Collins's Twitter feed was like the Twitter feed of a great, of a college aged racist groiper. I mean and I think that's because he handed it over to one of those and, and Jon Ossoff on the other hand, Eric Erickson. And if people don't know him, he's a, he's a pretty conservative, very conservative right wing radio host in the state that's kind of had an on again, off again relationship with Trump, mostly on again. And he was talking, he just was being blunt on the radio show this week around these mayor's endorsements. And he said, hey, like Ossoff, he's like, I know business guys who are Republicans, never voted for a Democrat, but if they need something in the state, they call Ossoff, he calls him back. And I do think that Ossoff has been really good at just kind of that blocking and tackling there in Georgia. So that's where I'm at. I agree with Jessica about Iowa. I think I was in Alaska are places to watch. I mentioned Kansas earlier. I think that's a big long shot. But if you're going to look at a long shot for Democrats, I'd look at Kansas.
[19:45]
C
We recently shifted our rating this week on Kansas as well. So I do think Kansas is coming on the board. Well, there you go. Jessica, thank you so much for joining us today. John Halman and Tim Miller, thank you both so much for spending a Friday afternoon hour with me.