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Tim Miller
What's up? Welcome to a very special edition of Bulwark Takes. I'm Tim Miller. I'm kind of excited, I guess, to be here with jvl. It makes me a little more excited to know he's a little nervous and we're bringing in another special guest. I'm improving as a host. I've been practicing and working my chops, but, you know, I still like to aim higher. I'm still trying to get better and better. I'm trying to learn from the best. And so we're hoping to do this today, maybe a little bit more. It is our good friend, friend of the board, Katie Couric. I'm going to pass the host chair over to her. Thank God.
Katie Couric
This is so exciting. Well, watch and learn, Tim and jbl.
Tim Miller
I'm taking notes. Tim got my notes app out right now.
Katie Couric
Well, listen, I had so much with you on election night, and when I had an opportunity to just do this weekly catch up with the two of you today, I jumped at the chance because huge, huge Bulwark fan. I watch you guys. I read you guys. I pay attention to what you say and the things you're talking about. So I'm really grateful to be able to be a part of this conversation. And you're right. Since I have a little more experience, Tim emceeing things than you do, I thought that I would be sort of the. The maestro of this little get together.
Tim Miller
JBL's blushing. I don't know if you know, I
JVL
feel like Sarah meeting Pete Buttigieg. There's a guy.
Katie Couric
Well, I'm very excited because JBL's kids apparently knew who I was. And I said, is that from Shark Tank? How do they know me? And he said, no, it's from auto Tuning the News.
Tim Miller
Yeah.
JVL
From the Gregory Brothers. The great Gregory Brothers band.
Katie Couric
And I have to apologize because I have a bloody nose. Oh, no. Well, you guys, I've had this terrible cold for about the last 10 days and I've been blowing my nose non stop, so. Perfect.
Tim Miller
It's not. Toilet seat.
Katie Couric
It's starting to bleed.
Tim Miller
Is it? Toilet seat coat.
Katie Couric
I have a toilet on my toilet paper. This is a very classy operation, to be honest.
Tim Miller
I love that you and RFK were doing some blow off the toilet seats.
Katie Couric
And that's the real reason I may have to go like this. Some of my hosting duties.
Tim Miller
That's okay.
Katie Couric
I should actually be.
JVL
Shove it up and just leave it. Leave it dangling.
Katie Couric
Yeah, I don't. I think. No, I'm not gonna do that. That's gonna make Us Weekly or something. Jbl.
JVL
Nobody, Nobody on the Internet would ever screenshot that.
Tim Miller
Well, that is something I've never had to worry about. That if I did something embarrassing, it would make Us Weekly. That's. That's interesting.
JVL
Life goals, Tim.
Tim Miller
Yeah.
Katie Couric
Yeah. Anyway, well, listen, hopefully we'll keep it under control and maybe. I don't know what I'm going to do. But let's talk first on a serious note about this terrorist attack at the synagogue in the Detroit suburb of Bloomfield Township. West Bloomfield Township. Right. The guy ramped his car into a synagogue. He was apprehended. He was killed, actually, by the authorities. How worried are you all about an increase in terrorist attacks here at home given what's happening in Iran?
Tim Miller
Go for it, jbl.
JVL
I mean, not super worried, but reasonably worried, especially for my Jewish friends, because, you know, I live in the New York City area and, you know, like a lot of the larger synagogues, there's always a police car parked out front because they need to have security and protection. And, you know, I am not super concerned about Iranian drones crossing the Pacific and hitting California.
Katie Couric
Right. Well, they were reportedly going to do that. I read that yesterday.
JVL
Yeah. Yeah. But I am reasonably concerned just about, like, upticks in anti Semitic. Anti Semitic attacks, you know, not even organized. Just because, you know, there are things happening in the world and the world is full of crazy, terrible people.
Tim Miller
So I guess I would just add to that that, like, you know, obviously the risks of this are higher. I mean, it's just. It's added to a lot of the different potential unintended consequences for starting this conflict. You know, it could be Iranian, could be a crazy person looking for an excuse. I mean, we in Austin I don't, we don't know a lot about that guy at this point, I guess, but he had a shirt that had the Iranian flag and had other kind of radical language and a sweatshirt.
Katie Couric
And then you had the Gracie Mansion attack.
Tim Miller
Yeah, you had that. And then, you know, and you've seen this across the region now in the Middle east. Like, a lot of people in Iraq are upset. You've seen, like, anti American protests there. You've seen stuff at the embassies in various countries. Italy, I think it was today or yesterday. So, you know, when you, like, there is always going to be a counter reaction when you do something like this. And it doesn't really seem to me that there was a lot of thought put into the potential risks that could come following this attack. And it doesn't seem like we really have the top guys in charge. I mean, look, there was this New York Times article on all the people that left the FBI.
Katie Couric
Right.
Tim Miller
We're experts in various things. We fired the Iranian counterintelligence experts. So, you know, I don't, I was not an intelligence person. I don't have a ton of visibility into how many, you know, plots are foiled by the experts inside, you know, our, our federal agencies. But it's not zero. And they've hollowed this stuff out. And we've got Cash running the show now. You know, I think it's legit. And the rise in anti Semitic targeting, I think, is also very real.
JVL
Well, and there's just, overall, I would say the, the, you do not have an overabundance of confidence in the competence of the people running things. So, you know, so, Katie, the, the, oh, they might attack California with drones story from yesterday. So Carolyn Leavitt puts out a statement today in which she is demanding that ABC retract that because she says, to be clear, no such threat from Iran to our homeland exists, and it never did.
Tim Miller
Okay.
JVL
But that does run counter to things that the President has said as justification for the war. You know, like, it just, it just, you look at this and you think, is anybody who's in charge here?
Katie Couric
Well, the whole thing has a who's on first feeling, doesn't it?
JVL
Yeah.
Katie Couric
From the very beginning, whether you were listening to various rationales for the attack, whether, you know, timetable of the attack, I think the administration isn't exactly working in lockstep. And I think they're not the most disciplined messengers. So it doesn't surprise me that Caroline Levitt said that. And I know that Gavin Newsom, just a few minutes ago, assured Californians that they weren't in danger of a drone attack. On the other hand, a doomsday plane apparently was flying around over Fresno. So I think everyone is feeling a bit more anxious than they were prior to this attack. And prior to Operation Epic Fury in
Tim Miller
the Bush years we had the colors, you know, and so I do think that the color threat would have gone up, you know, if we were still doing that.
Katie Couric
Gosh, I forgot that. I wonder if they are. Well, let's talk about what's happening in Iran because I'm really curious to get your take on so much of what's transpiring and there's so much to talk about. Now we finally heard from Junior, I guess he's probably not called Junior in Tehran, but the new leader is a man named, I can't say his name, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is the son, the 56 year old son of the Ayatollah Ali Khomeini. And we hadn't heard from him. We've heard rumors that he had some lacerations on his face, that he had fractured his foot. People were wondering is he alive? He, is he too afraid to come out in public? Is he afraid to be targeted? But he did deliver a message to state TV read by an anchor, basically doubling down on the sort of the theocratic messaging of the regime. So it doesn't seem as if this replacement is going to be any less hardline than the one that was there before. And if anything, jvl, it sounds like it's going to be more hard line. And this guy is sort of not, you know, saying the same, the same is, is going to hold.
JVL
Yeah, the big, the big thing about this is that Iran has just passed a stress test, right? So you know, autocratic regimes are, they tend to be very strong but very brittle. And you know, so the, the advantages you get in an autocracy are that you have top down control, you can do things reasonably efficiently, you can exert a lot of power. But the weakness is that, you know, the structures don't have the ability to really flex and bend. They'll break and snap apart. Iran, previous to last week had only ever had two rulers in the post revolutionary period. And they have now made it through a transition period from one ruler to the next. That's always a fraught moment in any autocracy. And they successfully endured A the decapitation of their regime and B, the transition of power. Those are pretty big hurdles for the regime to have, have successfully mounted and they have now successfully Closed the Strait of Hormuz. This is like the top. If you go back and look at Iranian doctrine, this is the thing that they've been developing for 30 years, ever since the Iran Iraq war. What, what would we do if Israel and the United States came for us? And the big weapon they have is the controlling the flow of oil through the strait. They've succeeded in getting that closed. From their perspective, they're absorbing a tremendous amount of punishment and they're taking a lot of body blows, but they're achieving their strategic objectives. And so I think they probably feel reasonably good about their position just from the perspective of the regime. Right. And so, you know, when you think about these things, just from a. The geopolitics perspective, what do they care about most? They care about preserving the regime. Well, they're in pretty good shape to do that. And so they look like the type of. They look like they believe that at some point soon the America is going to come to them and be asking them to deal.
Tim Miller
Can I add one thing to that? I think that Israel also feels like they're achieving their geopolitical objectives, their strategic objectives right now. Right. Because if you're Israel, you're looking at this and you're like, well, and the ideal situation would be that there was a transition of power, regime change. We have a less hostile leader to something that looks more like whatever Jordan or whatever, that was a stretch goal. I think that they would like that. Right. If there's chaos, though, and there's infighting for Israel, that's a win that's superior to the previous situation. And in the situation, if they had now, if status quo kept and the regime stayed in power, you had a new leader, but their military capabilities are, are lessened significantly. You know, we've taken out a lot of missile launchers. We've taken on the other, you know, the type of material they have to attack Israel with, like their finances, like their ability to fund other terror groups is diminished, like that's a win for Israel. Right. It's not ideal. It wouldn't be the ideal situation, but you could understand why they would want that because the threat to them was actually imminent and serious. Maybe not imminent, but serious. And so, you know, from there, from both of those perspectives, you can understand why they'd feel not happy about what's happening with the war. But like, that the strategic imperatives are being met. What about us at the same time, what are our strategic imperatives? We don't have any strategic imperative. Ours aren't being met.
Katie Couric
It Seems like to me, you guys, it's like a waiting game. So they might have taken. They might have really weakened Iran's capability. Not so much. I mean, it still has some nuclear capabilities they haven't been able to get to, but conventional weapons and some of the things you mentioned, Tim. But Iran has some things up its sleeve which I think the US didn't, or Israel maybe didn't anticipate. These autonomous drones, I think we have a picture of one. They're like $30,000 a pop. They can produce them in huge numbers, and to shoot, and they can do pretty significant damage. And to shoot them down, you need a Patriot missile that costs millions of dol. Thousand dollars per drone, like 3 million. I could be wrong, but something like that for a Patriot missile, we have a limited supply of these things. So they have those that are everywhere. Then they have these mines, I guess, that they've lined. Nobody really knows how many mines have been put in the Strait of Hormuz, but those are incredibly dangerous to ships passing. Plus they have air power that they're attacking ships like that Thai ship. So I feel like they're. They may have been significantly weakened and. And of course, their leadership decapitated, if you will, whatever military term you want to use. But they still have some things that they're able to do to prolong the conflict, and it seems to me they want to prolong it as long as possible to jbl, to your point, so that the US Will say, okay, we're going to stop now. Do you see that as a potential thing to just, like, drag this out until the US Almost runs out of. Of defensive weapons?
JVL
No. I mean, I think the war is unpredictable. Anything can happen. I think the most likely endgame for this is Trump realizes he has to get out, and so he has to go and bribe Iran in order to get a deal that he can then use to declare victory. And so what you'll have is you'll have both sides declaring victory. Iran will say, look at this. We stood up to Israel and America. We survived. We are now getting xyz. XYZ is probably something like easing of sanctions and the ability to sell oil on the international market, et cetera, et cetera. Trump will say, look at that. It was the biggest, most hugely strong war in American history. They said it couldn't be done, but we did it. And Iran will exit, the regime will exit in a stronger position than it was months ago when there were tens of thousands of people on the streets trying to topple it.
Katie Couric
Why do you think that? Why do you think they're going to be stronger?
JVL
Because I think they're going to wind up leaving this in A, they succeeded in killing all those people B, we have then stirred up, I would say, a bunch of internal people who might have been on the fence with the Iranian regime who now look and say, hold on, you just blew up our whole neighborhood. You killed all these girls and children and civilians. Maybe, maybe that all the propaganda we've been hearing about how dangerous America and Israel is was correct. And see, I think they're likely to get something out of it on the back end economically. I think sanctions are likely to be lifted and they're going to wind up with a better deal than they would have gotten before the war when they were negotiating.
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Tim Miller
Use math to make the world a better place. Become an actuary through the society of
JVL
actuaries and find solutions to the world's most pressing challenges.
Tim Miller
As an actuary, the only thing higher
JVL
than the pay is the satisfaction.
Tim Miller
And all these things have momentum, right? Like the Khomeini regime before was dealing with all the protests in the streets, they were also weakened. They're weakened economically, they're weakened militarily. Obviously Israel at least, and it seems like us too had internal anti regime assets that were helping us identify where these people were. They were able to take them out so easily. So. And that I think underscores how opposite the reality on the ground was to the pitch for why we needed to do this now like Iran was, the regime was not at its most threatening to us. If anything, you could imagine a counter pitch. I don't think it would have landed with the American people, which is like these guys are so weak that now is the moment to go take them out. And who knows, maybe we can get a better leader out of this. But that's not the pitch that anybody made. And so just back to what JVL was saying about how the regime could end up being stronger. It's not that high of a bar to clear to be stronger. The regime was about as weak as it had been in a long time.
Katie Couric
But it was also a pitch. I was going to say JBL wasn't the pitch. That we had all these leaders in one place and this intelligence, and this was a once in a lifetime opportunity. Not to mention that the conventional weapons threat against Israel was imminent. That was another big argument. Right?
JVL
That does seem to be an argument that the Israeli officials made to the Americans. Who knows whether or not it was true? I mean, Israel clearly wanted to walk American power into the conflict. They succeeded in doing it. I, you know, honestly, look, the Iranian regime is a terrible, horrible regime. And the things they've done over the last 47 years or whatever to their people, not to mention like lots of other people in the region, just awful. You could have sold me a few months ago as the protests were really starting to take off in the northern provinces. Oh boy, these guys look weak. If you establish a no fly zone and carve out room here for, you know, popular protests to gather force, then you target the Iranian leadership like you maybe could have sold me. Hey, there's a real chance to accomplish regime change there. If you had done it a little, little with a little more foresight. Instead what we got was, hey, Bibi says that we can get everybody right here, but we got to do it right now. Right now, right now. Come on, let's go.
Tim Miller
Let's do it. Let's do, do it.
JVL
You know, you want to do it, let's do it. And you know, with.
Tim Miller
When Blinken said he made that same pitch to Obama, Tony Blinken said that. That's not like the conspiracy podcast that said that Tony Blinken said he made the. Basically the same pitch to Obama 10, 15 years ago.
JVL
Yeah, so I, I mean, I just, again, I, I am not averse, like theologically to trying to topple the Iranian regime. It just doesn't seem like there was ever actually a plan in place. And honestly, it's not even clear that it was ever really the goal.
Tim Miller
Who knows?
Katie Couric
The top of the regime. Yeah. You know, it's so interesting. I just interviewed David Petraeus, who I got to know during the Iraq war. We walked around Fallujah together. It was very interesting during the surge, if you all remember, when they added tens of thousands of troops. And I was really surprised when, when he didn't think that we had any responsibility other than to bomb the hell out of Iran. I want to the question I asked him and just get your reaction on the back side.
Tim Miller
JBL is a big surge guy, so we'll Go to him first.
Katie Couric
Regime change. What about Colin? Right. You break it, you own it. Right?
JVL
Well, in this case, we're not on
Tim Miller
the ground, so we don't own it. They own it.
Katie Couric
Who's they?
Tim Miller
The Iranians.
Katie Couric
So you're saying that the United States and Israel have no responsibility in terms of what replaces the current theocracy? And how do you usher in a more stable, saner, if you will, Iran, if basically you're just blowing the place up and then getting the hell out of Dodge?
Tim Miller
Well, you're not in Dodge to begin with.
JVL
The objective of this operation, I read
Tim Miller
them to you really, again, is to take down some of the regime leaders,
JVL
the air and ballistic missile defenses, the,
Tim Miller
the missile program, the drone program, the
JVL
navy, regime forces, infrastructure and so forth,
Tim Miller
and any of the remnants of the nuclear program.
Katie Couric
And I mean, does it surprise you that there. Does that there was so little thought put into what comes next?
JVL
I mean, I shouldn't be surprised. I am, anyway. It's, you know, it's you, you think to yourself, I can't believe that monkey is going to fling his trap at the. Well, no, I guess he did it. Look, he did it again. It's always, it's always amazing to see him do it. Petraeus, that was such a weird interview with you.
Katie Couric
It was really. I was so surprised.
Tim Miller
Why did he do, you know, why did he do it? Just because your old pals forced him to do it? Right.
Katie Couric
No, I asked him. I was interested in sort of comparing Iraq to Iran and what happened there, and I had so many questions. He filibustered. The first answer must have been 7 minutes, 11 minutes or something. Yeah, it was insane. And he said complex questions, you know, can't be answered in a soundbite, basically. And he seemed, it almost seems like he was advising the White House on some aspect of this war. And I thought he was going to be a little more critical and a little more detached, but I think he wanted to really support the military. But. And I, I think he doesn't like to talk sort of about the political ramifications and, and the political equation that goes into, you know, an operation like this. But I have to say I was, I was surprised how sort of in lockstep he was with the administration.
Tim Miller
Yeah.
JVL
It's not just steel manning everything, Right. He was, he was steel manning everything. He was, you know, he's like, I just read you the four goals that were their objectives. Well, I'm, there's been like 17 objectives. I know the four objectives that you think that you can support.
Tim Miller
Right?
JVL
And it just depends on which day, what time and which person in the administration you're asking as to what the objective is. And the weirdness of him, he even you asked him something about, you know, well, but Trump is saying one thing and then saying another. And he's like, well, many times it can be of huge advantage to try to convince. Unpredictable, right? It's like, oh, come on, buddy. Yeah, is a weird, weird.
Katie Couric
And I didn't have time to ask him, did the administration properly prepare the American people as they did with the, remember the buildup to Iraq? I mean, it was months and months and months. And I said, and then of course they got congressional authorization. But you know, he talked, his answers were so long. And then at half hour he was like, I gotta go. And I was like, wait, don't leave me. I have so many more questions.
Tim Miller
Here's the thing, this isn't just him. I mean, you're seeing a lot of this on like CNN and stuff too. I think that some of the military commentator types, not our guy Mark Kirtland, some of the other military commentator types do want to like grade this, you know, as if, you know, they are commentators in a sports match. And it's like, oh, hey, I mean it is true that if you're just grading this on like who has eliminated more of the other side's military, you know, weapons and material and, and missiles, like we're crushing them, right? You know, like we're winning 28 to 3. It's like the Patriots Falcon super bowl, like they're, the Iranians are not, you know, where there are eight Americans that have died. That's tragic. I think like 1500 some odd Iranians have died, depending on what reports you're looking at. And so I think that from a military standpoint, you know what he said there, like those four goals of how we're going to take out their capacity on, you know, many medium range weapons and their drone capacity and hopefully their nuclear capacity, like that might end up being true. And I circle back to kind of my original point is I understand why that would be an important objective for Israel because that's a real danger for them. Like none of those weapons are ever going to reach us. And so there's this question of like grading this like it's a sports match on who is taking out who more or like it's a video, like a military video game about like who's degrading the other side more. It doesn't make any sense in the, in the American context because we don't know why we're there. Like we're not. We don't know what the, what victory looks like. And so taking out some of their missiles, like who cares?
Katie Couric
I also think jbl, I don't know if you do, but there's been such little discussion about the geopolitical ramifications, you know, like, you know, not only with Petraeus, but just in general with what comes next and how does this destabilize the region and gaming out what happens with either a more hardline Iran or a different regime or any kind of diplomatic or political effort to try to form some kind of opposition to the current theocracy. I mean it's just like there's no discussion about that. It's all about war games and video games and using these weird videos that are intercut with, you know, you know, Nintendo games. We have an example, I think they just put one out today where they're interspersing more video with video games and you know, wrestling matches and all kinds of weird stuff. It is so bizarre and it's, it, it seems so sophomoric, doesn't it?
Tim Miller
Lower. And you're like 16 when you're a sophomore. So I think it's like elementary, elementary school.
JVL
The world is juvenile.
Tim Miller
Juvenile.
JVL
Yeah, yeah. It's a. Can you imagine Eisenhower doing that?
Tim Miller
Right.
JVL
Patton. Like it's, it's crazy, absolutely crazy that we're going like, I guess we're speed running all the video game systems. We did, we've done Grand Theft Auto, we've done Call of Duty, we've now done Wii. Next up is I guess Switch. Maybe they'll do Switch to with Mario Kart or something. I just. But here's the real question. Who do you guys think this is for?
Tim Miller
Right.
JVL
It's not, it's not for the enemy. Right. It's not like proper wartime propaganda trying to demoralize the enemy to get in. It's not a psyop in that way, is it? For domestic considerations, which I got.
Tim Miller
I know who it's for. If you look at the polls, it's interesting. Like the cross tabs of the polls of who supports the war. The kind of independent Trump voting. Independents are not happy with it. But then if you look at the Republicans, there was one poll that broke them out between do you consider yourself a MAGA Republican or a regular Republican? And one might think that the MAGA Republicans would be more hostile to this because the whole point of MAGA originally was that it was a rejection of George W. Bush's neocon globalist interventionism and that the regular Republicans might be more for it because they were around for Iraq one and they liked it. So you might think that. Wrong. The MAGA Republicans are like 95 to 4 in favor of it and the non MAGA Republicans are like 70 30. And so what that tells me is that this stuff is for the nationalist MAGA republic. You need to give them a reason to be for this. Like you've been telling them for years and years, we're not going to do these stupid wars. You know, we're. We're not. I'm not dumb like those other presidents that cared about this stuff. And so to get them on board, you like, got to give them something. I think what they're giving them is like, rah, rah America. Hell yeah, we're killing the bad guys jingoism. And, and I think that that's who it's for. That's my.
Katie Couric
I think that's interesting because there is sort of this, you know, if you listen to Pete Hegseth and his slam poetry and you listen to sort of the way they are portraying this whole conflict. There's this, this very muscular macho. You know, our soldiers won't let us get into a quagmire like the soldiers who were in Iraq and Afghanistan. I saw Bill Kristol talking about this, which was so insulting to the military who served honorably and bravely. It's not their fault that the mission was. Was not, you know, didn't lead to what they wanted it to lead to and was in many ways for nothing or for not. But I just feel like it's just part of this. To your point, Tim, this rah, rah, manly. Let's kick the shit out of the enemy. And, you know, isn't this fun and kind of the same. Same vibe as, as the Trump video of, of releasing excrement on the, on the, on the. Protesters for the. No King's Day. This kind of. I can't even. I don't even know how I would describe it, but, you know, I wanted to ask you about as a transition to Kash Patel, because he is trying to prove his manhood, as we know, in some really crunchy ways. There was that locker room video with the US Men's hockey team, and. And now he is literally bringing in UFC fighters. I don't know if you all saw this to train FBI agents. So is that more of the same, you think, appealing to this hardcore MAGA base with this super macho, like, let's let's get them and when the men are men.
Tim Miller
And you know, I've got something for you on this. You ready? I just pulled it up. This is another Bill Kristol two Bill Kristol shout outs. Maybe like four years ago now. I was working on a project that didn't come to fruition and Bill Crystal was like, have you ever read Umberto Echoes or Fashion? And I was like, I don't know, maybe in college or whatever, but I don't recall it. And he's like, you should reread it. And I said, okay. And so I was rereading it. And this he Echo like lays out the qualities. He tries to describe what the qualities of Mussolini's fascism are and how it's different from typical politics. And number 12 is the one that stuck with me. I just googled it. Since both permanent war and heroism are difficult, the ur fascist transfers his will to power to sexual matters. That is the origin of machismo. The you are fascist hero tends to play with weapons. Doing so becomes an erstats phallic exercise that includes. They also have disdain for women and intolerance and condemnation of non non machismo sexual habits. That's what that's. It's just that like that's. It goes back to 19. It's the same shit that that they were doing in 1942.
Katie Couric
Having said that, this is not landing very well in the manosphere. We have a bite from Joe Rogan talking about this. I think it was yesterday or the day before. Let's play it and talk about how this is playing with young men because apparently not very well. Despite this, this macho, macho man attitude.
Tim Miller
Crazy. I know it's going to be very high security and high stress and weird to have a fight at the White House in the middle of a fucking war. I would hope the war will be sorted out by June, but quite honestly, I'm not confident that that's going to be the case.
JVL
No.
Katie Couric
Okay, so I know you guys have read all this stuff about Gen Z men. All the very same young men who seem to support Donald Trump in 2024 suddenly saying, hey, wait a second, he said no forever wars. He said no, you know, entanglements internationally. God, am I going to get drafted. And by the way, I feel sort of hopeless about my future. How come he's not responding to that? So talk about sort of the political ramifications of this, you guys. Jbl, what do you think?
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Tim Miller
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JVL
I mean, I, I'm at am on this because I look at it and part of it like yes, Echo and ur fascism. The other part is like Cash Patel is like one of the make a wish kids and he's just like he Donald Trump's election in 2024 has allowed cash to just like live out all of his childhood dreams. And one of them was to get to hang out with real UFC fighters at Quantico. And so what's a way to hang out with guys who probably wouldn't want to like, hang out with them otherwise? Well, I'll just give them honorary G Man badges and pretend that they're training agents, which again, I'm sorry, if you know anything about either law enforcement or, you know, mixed martial arts is preposterous. Mixed martial arts is like a highly technical discipline which adheres to weight classes and rules and all sorts of stuff and point scoring. And when you're in law enforcement, that's not. Those things are not applicable. Like when they're learning, you know, to fight and box and wrestle. In law enforcement, it's much more, it's much more central combat techniques. So what is this really about? It's about Cash getting to live out his dreams. And for Trump to bring UFC to the White House is, I think he just, I mean, I, it's just like bread and circuses, I think. Like pure Caligula stuff.
Tim Miller
It's interesting to see that Rogan is opposed to it because, like, I understood Rogan being frustrated at the war, you know, because I, Donald Trump did like go on a show and says he wasn't going to do a war in Iran. And so you feel stupid, kind of actually, you feel like you got fooled. So I understand why he'd be mad and be against it. But being against the MMA fight on the, on the White House lawn is kind of like.
JVL
Because Rogan takes it seriously.
Tim Miller
Right, but, but since when? Right? Since when? Yeah, I mean, maybe he can. Considers himself serious, but. Right. It's like he's been part of the, like, disintegration of the type of seriousness with which we used to expect from our politicians. Right. Like, and leaders, you know, and so it's like, I hate to pick on Shane Gillis, but I was watching because he's like, probably the most normal of the manosphere guys. But I saw a clip of him where he's like making fun of this same thing. I'm like making fun of all these guys and the make a wish part. And they're at the MMA thing and they act like they're tough and cool, but it's like, guys, you're the FBI director now. Shouldn't you be getting bad guys and protecting our communities? Like, don't you have real work to do? And it's like, I don't think it clicked with any of them that they liked that, you know, Donald Trump was a good hang. Like, he was a better hang than Hillary. Right. And so who would you rather have a beer with? And they liked that. But now, and now that he's in there and it's so unserious, and it's comically unserious, you know, it's almost like there's some cognitive dissonance that hasn't quite been resolved yet for these folks, which is like, wait a minute, maybe I should, maybe the good hang part was not what I should have been prioritizing. But anyway.
Katie Couric
But what, what is going to be the impact politically, you guys? I mean, the, the midterms are what, seven months away or something like that? Do you think that this is going to hurt Trump? He's trying to, to get the MAGA base, as you mentioned, Tim, excited about this, but there are a lot of independents who are saying, hey, this is not what I voted for. We don't even have health care in this country. And what do you see? And also oil prices, gasoline prices have increased. I don't know if that's going to be a short term pain thing or if it's going to be temporary, but they do say that it could take weeks, even months to open up the Strait of Hormuz. So this could have a serious trickle down effect, not to mention grocery prices, et cetera, et cetera. I mean, are you, are you hesitant to talk about sort of the impact of this for the midterms?
Tim Miller
I'm not. I'm more optimistic than jvl I think. So do you want optimism first or pessimism?
Katie Couric
Let's have the bad news first.
Tim Miller
Okay, jvl let you go and then I'll.
JVL
I don't know that I'm. Maybe you're more optimistic than I am. So I have been. You know, I do not have a Bloomberg terminal account myself because they're really expensive, but I have some buddies in finance. Hey Jeremy. Who have been sharing their stuff with me. And so I've been obsessing with all the oil futures curves and I mean, we are projected to be well over $80 a barrel out into July. June, like automatic. We were only 30 weeks away. I mean, think about it. There are about 30 weekends left between.
Katie Couric
By the way, that Barron's piece, JVL said it could go up to 150o dollars. Apparel.
Tim Miller
Yeah.
JVL
I mean, and you know, at that point, like I don't even know what the world looks like, you know, I mean, but as the, you know, Tim's got this Landman line that he's been using. You know, you get near 90, 90 a barrel and everything. The American economy has to readjust its prices. And this, if the war ended next week, it would still take several weeks to a few months to get all of the logistics. Like we have thousands of ships lined up. We have plants which have come offline fertilizer deliveries to like Brazil where they need to plant crops that are going to come mature in late summer. Those are already gone. Right. So you've introduced this gigantic logistical,
Katie Couric
you
JVL
know, clusterfuck into the global economy that even if you stopped it tomorrow, it's going to take weeks and months to work itself out.
Tim Miller
Up.
JVL
And you're only 30 weekends away from the election. So I just, I don't know how bad it can get, but I can tell you it can't get much better. Like we have a really hard cap on the up potential upside for good news for the administration. And I just.
Katie Couric
So why are you pessimistic about the midterms?
JVL
No, that's what I'm saying. I don't think it makes sense.
Tim Miller
I mispredicted. You predicted my bit on Landman. I have so few bits and so to get called out like that was kind of embarrassing.
JVL
Sorry.
Tim Miller
But I thought that you were going to do the, the people are stupid and they voted for Trump even though the economy was good. Anyway, I thought that's where you were going to go. So anyway, I, here's, I'll just add, I agree with everything JBL said. Turns out we don't have a disagreement on this. But I'll just add on the campaign side of it, you can already see on the map, like the way the map is expanding, you know, like you have in Montana, both Republicans in the House and the Senate drop out of the race. All of a sudden that race is like now on the map. It's not something anybody was talking about at the beginning of the year. You look at that Nebraska independent race, I think a lot like people giving that a second look. Mary Peltola gets in, you have Alaska. So I think that six months ago I would have said that the Democrats had no chance at the Senate. And I think it would have been in part because of Democratic strategic incompetence. And, and just like the map and the Democrats issues right now with the demographics of the country and how the Senate map is biased towards working class white people. But Trump has fouled this up so bad. The Democrats, I think, have a real chance to take both houses of Congress now. And it's not really a lot of what they've done even. I mean, I think that they've nominated Paltola and Talarico, who were better than alternatives. So they've added a couple of states to the map. They haven't done everything I wish the Democrats would have done in my dream world to make, to expand the map, but it's been pretty good. And, and so I just.
JVL
Platner.
Tim Miller
Platner, Maine. Yeah, okay, we'll talk about that later. I keep getting 20, 28, keep getting trouble on that. And so, you know, look, I think that you combine the people who are upset about the war, who are in Trump's coalition, who are off with people just like, what's the point of voting? I think a lot of MAGA voters will just be like, like, you have to get me, I have to get excited about John Husted in Ohio. Like, you're a MAGA person. You don't know who this guy is. He's a generic white guy that looks like an old school Republican. You're pissed about gas prices, you're pissed about groceries. You came in to vote for Trump in the first place. You're gonna vote for John you're gonna take the time to go vote for John Husted? I don't think so. And I think that a lot of the Democrats will be very excited to vote, so. So I think that right now, you know, the map is expanding and things are looking worse and worse for the Republicans.
Katie Couric
I want to talk to you guys about Texas for a minute because I am obsessed with James Talarico.
Tim Miller
Have you seen the memes about him that if he, like, changed his look and grew a beard and put on a gold chain and they're like some AI pictures of him? I'll just send him to. He looks very cool. Like, you can make him look really cool. You know, he's got the pastor look, but it's like we gave him a full makeover.
Katie Couric
That's so funny. Well, you know, he. I. He got my attention during the whole reapportionment battle. And I interviewed him, gosh, about a year ago, and I was so impressed by how eloquent he was and how measured. I love seeing him go on Fox News and basically embarrass some of those anchors because they weren't listening to what he was saying. He asked him a question, and I don't even know this anchor's name, but he just, he was totally flummoxed by the whole thing. Do you think James Talarico has a chance and do you think that Trump. John Cornyn has recently been sucking up to Trump, hoping to get his endorsement? Ken Paxton, more MAGA than John Cornyn, really? I think his, I mean, sort of more red meat. What do you. Do you think the Democrats could actually win, turn flip the Senate seat in Texas?
Tim Miller
We're in Texas next week for our live shows. Come. Oh, wow, it's left in Austin. The book dot com.
Katie Couric
Are you getting Talarico to come do an interview?
Tim Miller
Maybe. Who knows? We'll have to. We have to wait and see. You have to come out to the shows. The.
Katie Couric
I'll be heading to Texas for that.
Tim Miller
The viewers. We haven't sell all the tickets before we tell you. The. I, I think he has a chance. I think he's gonna have to really. I think the primary kind of hurt him. And I think that, like, you really gotta. Yeah, well, because there's so little margin for error in a state like Texas. I mean, Trump won it by double digits. And you gotta kind of figure out, like, everybody dogs my boy Beto, but that first race he ran, he almost cracked the nut, which was you have to simultaneously excite the base and you have to demonstrate to traditional Republican voters, that you care about them enough that they either maybe decide not to go for the vote in the midterm or you win some over. And Beto did that. He traveled the whole state. He was in red Texas a lot. He made a real big case.
Katie Couric
I remember that.
Tim Miller
I worry a little bit that the primary creates some hard feelings with black voters. I don't know if that is sticky enough, but it's just something to monitor.
Katie Couric
Jasmine Crockett has been very gracious.
Tim Miller
She has been great. And kudos to her on that. She's been great. And then, you know, you end up having all this focus on some of their, you know, more lefty cultural views, and that maybe turns off some of the bread part of the state. I just think it made the task a little more challenging if somebody like Peltola in Alaska, for example, who I mentioned, who's like, not a firebrand on any of that stuff, you know, and she's fish family freedom. And that is maybe a little bit more of a. Of a logical path. So I don't know. I think Texas might be a little tougher than some of the other red states, but he's talented, and I think that if he can manage to give a message to Trump voters and if he can get an assist by the economy tanking, maybe. Though I do wonder, Texas might be the place best suited to weather the economic storms ahead. I mean, I think that they're. They're opening champagne bottles in Midland this week.
Katie Couric
And who is it? Yeah, who is it? Right? You're right about that. But who's gonna be Ken Paxton or John Cornyn in the runoff? What is that next month, you guys?
Tim Miller
Yeah, depends on how hard Trump goes for corner. Like, if Trump half ass endorses him, I don't know, it's a guarantee he wins. Like, if Trump goes down there, endorses them, cuts an ad, makes a big deal out of it, Trump can drag anybody across the line still in Republican primaries. But he's. You'd have to, like, really try. I think you disagree with that. Jbl.
JVL
I don't. I don't disagree. I think that the incentives actually suggests that Trump probably won't do that.
Tim Miller
He bails. Yeah. It was like a trial balloon. And he saw what happened. And it's like, you know what?
JVL
What's he gonna put himself out for?
Tim Miller
For John Cornyn?
JVL
For John Cornyn, who cares? He's got other things. I. If you're Trump, you think to yourself, why would I put anything of mine on the line for this guy, who
Tim Miller
I don't even really like megalomania, he likes to endorse would be like, honestly, the reason.
Katie Couric
What about what he's doing to. To Thomas Massie in Kentucky? You know, he's going down there, he's trashing him because I guess Thomas Massie had the audacity to speak out against him. What did Thomas Massie do anyway that pissed Trump off so much?
Tim Miller
Epstein.
JVL
Epstein, yeah, right. Yeah, it was Epstein. And I think it's going to work, right? He'll. He'll unseat Massey.
Tim Miller
That's interesting. Sam and I talked about it on the pod today. It's fascinating. It's the first real test of Trump in a Republican primary ever. None of these guys, they've never done what I've always. I've been begging some Republicans to do this for like 10 years, which is oppose him on something from the right and then stay, try to fight him. Stay Republican. Don't do. Don't be. Tim.
JVL
Brian Kemp. Brian Kemp did it.
Tim Miller
Yeah, that's true. That's true. Brian Kemp did. In a state election.
JVL
The only other one.
Tim Miller
You're right. Yeah, yeah. And a bit of federal. This is like a House or Senate election. You're right. That was a governor's race. In a House or Senate election. Buckingham and holding line, like Liz Cheney bucked him and then kind of mailed in that House race. Like, let's just be honest, like, she didn't really try that hard in that House primary. Right. And then most of them retire. And so my girlfriend. Yeah, my girlfriend MTG retired. Yeah. Massey's sticking it out. And if Massey could. I don't think it's a 0% chance Massey could hold on. And if he does, that would be. Yeah.
Katie Couric
Well, what about, you know, Andy Beshear, obviously extremely popular governor in the state. So I mean, if that's any evidence that conservative voters or Republicans can cross lines in Kentucky, maybe they'll appreciate. Plus that the Epstein issue is such a. Interesting and they have ran. There's so much crossover. Right. In terms of, you know, Marjorie, the Marjorie Taylor Greene's of it all. So a lot of those voters in Kentucky may appreciate Thomas Massie. Right. Even if they're MAGA for standing up for the Epstein survivors.
Tim Miller
His district is kind of interesting too, because it's Kentucky, but it's like he's like the Cincinnati suburbs. He's got a little bit the parts that are in Kentucky, so you have a little bit more of the college educated kind of. I don't think it's I think he could potentially survive. It would be delicious if he did,
Katie Couric
but jbl, you think that he's in trouble?
JVL
I mean, I, I think it's at best a coin flip, but I haven't seen, you know, I'm sure he has some internal polling. I haven't seen it. It would be, it would be nice if he survived.
Tim Miller
Running a business means checking a lot of boxes.
Katie Couric
Let's see. Payroll, check. Inventory, check. Insurance.
Tim Miller
Ugh. Good things.
JVL
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Katie Couric
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JVL
you thought of about them, though. You know, 30 seconds on what you thought about.
Katie Couric
Yeah, yeah, yeah, of course. First of all, I really liked him. I thought he was, you know, we talked a lot about his book and so his sort of origin story. His father abandoning, for all intents and purposes, the family when he's three years old. His mom had to work multiple jobs. Had this weird kind of duality in his childhood with his father, you know, was kind of a consigliery to the Getty family. And so he had exposure to this great wealth. And yet his mother is, you know, humping it at three jobs, trying to support his sister and himself. He had severe dyslexia as a kid. That was really interesting. He was had, he was much more humble than I anticipated. I did have this whole conversation with him because I've been in LA for the last six weeks. So of course, whenever I see people or meet people who have friends out here, I ask them, what do you think of Gavin Newsom? And rarely do they have much substantive criticism. This is what they always say. And I said to him, governor, what do you think the one word people use when I ask them about you? And he said, resilient? I said, no, slick. I said, slick. Everyone says you're slick. And I thought he handled it pretty well. I said, you know, is it your hair gel? You know, can you de slick ify yourself or it's just you're too polished But I thought he was pretty self aware and surprisingly self effacing. I made fun of the Best is yet to Come. You know, Kimberly Guilfoyle, we kept talking about, we had to do other podcasts to talk about these little sidebar issues. You know, I think that I did ask him a pretty tough question about California, about the budget ballooning and what has that gotten him. And obviously some of the bad things about California with the highest poverty rate and the schools. Dick Kristof's article about worse than Mississippi. And he's pretty good with the comebacks. I don't have this intimate knowledge of California public policy to be able to say, well, wait a second. But I thought. Do you want to hear the sound bite real quick? Do we have time or do you want to do that? We'll do that another time about California.
Tim Miller
People should go over there to the Katie Kirk and watch the whole thing. Yeah, my Gavin thing is just in one sentence is I think that his problem isn't slickness. The question is how does he avoid what I, what I call the Kamala conundrum, which is that the progressives and liberals think you're a corporate shill and that the centrists think that you're a California liberal. Yeah, like you want the opposite.
Katie Couric
He is kind of a man without a country that way, isn't he?
Tim Miller
Yeah.
JVL
Two words.
Tim Miller
Two. Chad, you gigachad. You just chad people. You just chad the whole alpha, alpha male. You're just like, yeah, you frame, frame, log the whole electorate.
Katie Couric
Okay, you're going to have to explain to me what you guys mean by that. I have no idea.
Tim Miller
You're frame logging us right now, so you don't have to know what it means to do it.
Katie Couric
Okay, good. Well, you'll have to explain that to me offline. All right, so we wanted to end with talking about my current obsession, which is Love Story, which is on Hulu, Ryan Murphy's latest extravaganza. You know, it's been interesting for me to watch because I did the last TV interview with John F. Kennedy Jr. And we actually have a clip of that. So you guys can just look and see how truly ridiculously handsome he was. So go ahead and roll that.
Tim Miller
You guys come from a political family. I think there was a lot about politics and the life of politics, especially for young children, that she thought was heady stuff and that it was better to have a. Of sense of who you are and your own place in life before you really took that on. So that kind of healthy skepticism, I think was an important part of her parenting and probably made my sisters and I life easy.
Katie Couric
Yeah. Because I mean, if you look at a lot of political families and a lot of families who grow up with the incredible glare of this spotlight that you all have and you see you and your sister, you think, God, they're remarkably well adjusted or seem to be, you know, who knows?
Tim Miller
Seem to be. Exactly.
Katie Couric
But you know, I think it's a real tribute to your mom that you all turned out to be really nice, productive people.
Tim Miller
Well, thank you. She would be glad to hear you say that. She took a lot of pride in being a good mother. Talk about frame mogging. Wow.
JVL
I have a two second story about this. So this slightly before my time. I spent 25 years the weekly Standard with Bill Kristol. In a weird confluence of events, I best knew JFK Jr. As the editor and publisher of George magazine. It was a very cool glossy political magazine.
Katie Couric
I was on the COVID Jpl.
JVL
Were you on the COVID Oh my God, yeah.
Tim Miller
So you have that.
Katie Couric
I don't know. I don't think I should have had it ready.
JVL
They can effort that while I vampire. Oh, I got came out a year before the Weekly Standard and while Bill Kristol was trying to set up the Weekly Standard and get it going, JFK Jr. Came down to the offices just to like sit down with him and like give him some lessons learned. Like, you know, very, very unbelievably gracious. And the story about this is that like every woman who worked at the what was becoming to the Weekly Standard came in dressed like they were going to breakfast at Tiffany's or something that they were. It was very much magazine people just dressed like magazine people like this basically. But when Jon Jon was going to be in the office that day, everyone came in in like cocktail dresses and pearls and just.
Katie Couric
Have you been watching it jvl?
JVL
No, I haven't. I just saw that.
Katie Couric
Oh, there's a comment.
JVL
Oh my goodness.
Tim Miller
What?
JVL
You've got a little press thing in your door.
Tim Miller
Is this a Charlie Chaplin thing? Is that what it was?
Katie Couric
No, it was sort of like, you
Tim Miller
know, it's a newsman.
Katie Couric
Exactly why everyone fears Katie Couric. LOL.
JVL
That's so funny.
Tim Miller
It's true. Timothy McVeigh. Rush Limbaugh losing his bite. If only.
JVL
I saw the Daryl Hannah op ed about it. That was my first. And I just immediately. Again, I don't know anything from anything here, but my sympathies were automatically with Daryl Hannah.
Katie Couric
Yeah, I think they did her dirty in this series and really treated her unfairly. And as she said, it was sort of the needing to have some kind of villain to play against Carolyn Bissette. And I thought they were pretty unkind to Caroline Kennedy too. Made her seem really cold and judgmental and. Yeah, having said that, I mean, it's eye candy. It's fun to watch. It's kind of a trip down memory lane in the 90s pre Internet. And it's fun to look at the clothes and the fashions. I think the actor who plays JFK Jr looks very much like him.
Tim Miller
Oh, wow. Yeah, I know. All right, so here's my disagreement.
Katie Couric
Sarah Pigeon, less so to me. Carolyn Bessette, I always describe her looking like kind of like a Modigliani painting. Kind of interesting and different but somehow really beautiful, but very unique looking. And Sarah Pigeon, I think is more traditionally classically beautiful. But go ahead, go ahead.
Tim Miller
No, this is so interesting. I just want to hear you talk about this. I'm going to give one sentence about the show. I know nothing. Like I was a child, so I don't know these. I've loved it. Don't rub it in for the drama. Sorry, I didn't mean it like that. I. I've loved it for the drama, but my impression, not knowing these people, is that like the JFK junior Guy just doesn't have the it, like the it factor that the real JFK Jr. Does. Like, literally, I was blushing just watching you talking to him for one second. And I love Sarah Pidgeon. She's amazing. I got like the character again, I don't. I don't know. Carolyn Bessette. I could have. I would have. I knew nothing about it, like the show. I've learned everything. Calvin Klein and. And I would have spelled their name wrong. Like it just wasn't. So to me, this is like I'm learning about these people in a way that's different from whatever they're, you know, like the two dimensional view I have about, about Jon Jon and the Kennedys. So I am kind of interested. So you have a opposite view. Like you lived this. I mean, literally, you interviewed him. So does it feel real? Does it. Are there. I mean, you know, so much of it, right or wrong.
Katie Couric
I haven't read the book it was based on, which was. Came out a couple of years ago. You know, I think a lot of license was taken with their story. Obviously, did they get the essence of their relationship? Perhaps it feels a little creepy and voyeuristic, but I think it's. I think they Were. They were so beautiful. Honestly, it's just kind of fun to watch, really. You know, ridiculously good looking people.
Tim Miller
What about Ethel? What about Ethel? Did you ever interview Ethel? Her character on the show is so interesting. She's so severe again, something I know nothing about. I felt so bad for her about over our. I went to look to see when she died. I was like, did she at least die before RFK Jr did this? Nonsense.
Katie Couric
Yeah, no, his character isn't in the show.
Tim Miller
At the dinner. Isn't he? He's at the dinner.
Katie Couric
Oh, yes, you're right. Tatiana. I watched one episode with my daughter and Tatiana's a little girl is in it. My daughter started crying because, you know, she was. She. My daughter went to Yale at the same time Tatiana Schlossberg was there and she was just so crushed by, you know, her death at 35. And they do portray Tatiana as a little girl with Caroline in the Park. And it's sort of heartbreaking, but I don't know. I think it's been interesting. You asked about Ethel Kennedy. One of my very closest friends was Ethel's secretary at Hickory Hill. And she told me, I said, was Ethel Kennedy that horrible? And she said, well, she did make me cry a lot. So I guess she was tough, but. I guess she was tough. But what she clearly resented and who knows, it makes sense was that, you know, I think in one line, doesn't she say Tim something like, I could wear a green dress and nobody would look at me. They would all still be looking at Jackie and, you know, the quizzing people
Tim Miller
about politics at the dinner table. I was like, that is going to be. I'm stealing it from Ethel and I'm a grandpa. I'm like, that is going to be me. It's like, come to dinner at the house. We're doing a news queen quiz before you.
Katie Couric
That was so rude, so rude to her. And I was mad at him for not signing her up for breakfast too. You know, he was kind of a lunkhead in some ways, and I don't think he fully appreciated how clannish the. Ken, I'm acting like I know this, but how clannish the Kennedys seem and how, you know, how difficult it was to integrate into that whole world. Well, I promised you a heart out.
Tim Miller
Oh, thank you. I could. We should have done the whole hour on this.
Katie Couric
I know more.
Tim Miller
The series isn't over. Maybe we can just do it when the whole series is over.
Katie Couric
Yeah, because I have some funny stories about how I got that interview with jfk.
Tim Miller
Junior, good tease. I'm going to follow up on that,
Katie Couric
but I just want to remind everyone, just because while we're here with your audience, I have my substack show coming up in an hour and I'm going to be doing a lot more on Iran with. With Richard Haas, and we're going to be talking about the Epstein files to get everybody up to speed on Substack. So if you want to join me and so enjoy Texas, you guys. When is the live show?
Tim Miller
Dallas Wednesday, Austin Thursday. Dallas is sold out. Austin, we still got tickets. Go to the.
Katie Couric
And where do you, where do you. Where do you have these events in Texas?
Tim Miller
It's at the Paramount in Austin. I mean, it's at the Paramount, which is like downtown 6th Street. I've done. I've been there. I forget where we're at. In Dallas.
JVL
In Dallas. I forget the name of the place, but it's where Lee Harvey Oswald was hanging out at the movie theater.
Katie Couric
Oh, my God.
Tim Miller
Really?
JVL
Yeah.
Katie Couric
We kind of just brought it full circle.
Tim Miller
We did.
Katie Couric
In a very sick way.
JVL
I didn't want to say it.
Tim Miller
Okay.
Katie Couric
Anyway, you guys, thank you guys so much. This was really fun. Let's do it again. I'm going to go take care of my bloody nose, please.
Tim Miller
Thank you for fighting through it.
Katie Couric
Okay, we'll see you soon.
Tim Miller
Bye, Katie.
Katie Couric
Good to see you.
Tim Miller
Bye. In Middlesex County, New Jersey, there's another kind of AI.
JVL
It's called actual intelligence and we have it in spades.
Tim Miller
In fact, Middlesex County, New Jersey ranks top 1% in the nation for university
JVL
based R and D spending in engineering,
Tim Miller
math and computer science. That's a whole lot of brilliance and
JVL
it's here ready to help your AI business grow.
Tim Miller
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Katie Couric
Some crimes are never forgotten.
JVL
Others are lost to history.
Tim Miller
Those are the ones we focus on in Crimes of the Centuries, a history meets true crime podcast revisiting murders, trials and frauds that once dominated headlines. I'm Amber Hunt, your host and a
Katie Couric
Pulitzer Prize winning journalist.
Tim Miller
If you like true crime that feels both cinematic and historical, find Crimes of the Centuries wherever you get your podcasts.
Episode: Tim, JVL, and Katie Couric: Trump, Iran and Manosphere Drama
Date: March 12, 2026
Host: The Bulwark (Tim Miller, JVL, with guest host Katie Couric)
This episode brings together Bulwark regulars Tim Miller and JVL with veteran journalist Katie Couric, who steps in as guest host. Their conversation spans the latest in U.S. and international politics—especially the fallout from recent events in Iran, the global and domestic impact of escalating conflict, anti-Semitic violence at home, shifting political winds ahead of the midterms, and a sharp look at growing MAGA “manosphere” performativity in Trumpworld. They also make time for lighter fare, discussing the Kennedy miniseries “Love Story” and the mythology surrounding JFK Jr.
The tone seamlessly weaves urgency, skepticism, irreverent humor, and introspection—rooted throughout in Bulwark’s signature “WTF is happening to our politics?” energy, with Couric’s classic interviewing acumen pushing things deeper.
Katie Couric jokes about her hosting skills and sets a collegial but lively tone.
The group opens with light banter, references to Us Weekly, and Katie’s “bloody nose” mishap—a moment of live podcast “realness.”
Katie Couric (01:26): “Huge, huge Bulwark fan... I watch you guys. I read you guys. I pay attention to what you say... Since I have a little more experience... I thought that I would be sort of the maestro of this little get together.”
Discussion centers on a recent vehicular attack on a synagogue in suburban Detroit.
All three express concern at the uptick in anti-Semitic violence, especially post-strike on Iran.
JVL is "reasonably" worried for his Jewish friends but less so about high-profile Iranian attacks on U.S. soil.
They voice skepticism over coherence in the administration’s messaging and contrast the Bush-era’s “color threat levels” with today’s confusion.
JVL (04:14): "I am not super concerned about Iranian drones crossing the Pacific... but I am reasonably concerned just about upticks in anti-Semitic attacks. The world is full of crazy, terrible people."
Tim Miller (05:45): "It doesn't seem like we really have the top guys in charge... We've hollowed this stuff out, and we've got Kash [Patel] running the show now."
Katie Couric (06:57): "The whole thing has a 'Who’s on First' feeling, doesn't it?"
Couric pivots to the succession in Iran and the emergence of Mojtaba Khamenei.
JVL argues Iran’s autocratic regime just passed a historic “stress test,” smoothly transitioning power and closing the Strait of Hormuz, achieving longstanding strategic objectives.
Tim Miller notes Israel also appears to be achieving strategic wins, even if the optimal scenario (regime change) didn’t materialize.
Couric highlights Iran’s cost-effective drone proliferation and mines in the Strait—a strategic challenge for the U.S. and Israel.
JVL predicts the likely endgame: Trump cuts a deal with Iran, both sides declare victory, and Iran exits in a stronger strategic position, with the regime potentially more domestically secure.
JVL (09:06): "The big thing about this is that Iran has just passed a stress test... They have now made it through a transition period from one ruler to the next... And they have now successfully closed the Strait of Hormuz... They're achieving their strategic objectives."
Tim Miller (11:04): "If chaos, though, and there's infighting for Israel, that's a win... If military capabilities are lessened significantly... that's a win for Israel. It's not ideal, but... you could understand why they would want that."
Katie Couric (12:31): "They have those [drones] everywhere. Then they have these mines... Plus, they have air power... They may have been significantly weakened and, of course, their leadership decapitated, if you will... But they still have some things that they're able to do to prolong the conflict..."
JVL (14:16): "The most likely endgame for this is Trump realizes he has to get out, so he has to go and bribe Iran in order to get a deal..."
The group questions whether the U.S. ever had a clear goal in the Iran conflict.
Tim Miller notes the regime was at its weakest in years—raising doubts about urgency for escalation.
Katie Couric refers to her interview with Gen. David Petraeus, surprised by his narrow focus on “bomb the hell out of Iran” and on military objectives instead of post-conflict stability.
JVL and Miller both criticize the lack of planning for “what comes next”—calling it “amazing to see [the monkey] do it again.”
Katie Couric (21:02): "So you're saying that the United States and Israel have no responsibility in terms of what replaces the current theocracy?... How do you usher in a more stable, saner... Iran, if basically you’re just blowing the place up and then getting the hell out of Dodge?"
JVL (21:33): "I shouldn't be surprised. I am, anyway. You think to yourself, I can't believe that monkey is going to fling his crap at the—well, no, I guess he did it. Look, he did it again."
The conversation shifts to war propaganda, the juvenile use of video game footage by the administration, and the testosterone-fueled MAGA messaging.
Tim breaks down polling: “MAGA Republicans” are actually more pro-war than "regular Republicans," suggesting propagandistic content is aimed at holding this base.
Katie spotlights the rise of performative masculinity in Trumpworld—citing Kash Patel’s recruitment of UFC trainers for FBI agents and the overlap with “manosphere” culture.
Katie Couric (29:04): "There's this, this very muscular macho... isn't this fun... kind of the same vibe as the Trump video of releasing excrement on the... protesters."
Tim Miller, quoting Umberto Eco (30:53): "Since both permanent war and heroism are difficult, the ur fascist transfers his will to power to sexual matters. That is the origin of machismo..."
Joe Rogan opposes the White House’s plans for an MMA fight, showing “manosphere” thought leaders’ emerging discomfort with the Trump administration’s behavior—especially juxtaposed with looming war and the possibility of the draft.
Couric wonders if Trump’s war pivot is alienating the young Gen Z men that recently seemed solidly in his camp.
JVL lampoons Kash Patel as “a Make-a-Wish kid” living out childhood dreams while American governance is trivialized.
JVL (34:15): "Cash Patel is like one of the make a wish kids... Trump’s election in 2024 has allowed Cash to just live out all of his childhood dreams..."
Tim Miller (36:02): "[Rogan]’s been part of the, like, disintegration of the type of seriousness with which we used to expect from our politicians."
The panel weighs the political consequences of war and economic shock heading into the midterms.
JVL notes persistently high oil prices will deeply impact global logistics and voter sentiment, with no quick fix available, and that the administration's "cap for... good news" is low.
Tim Miller expresses surprise at how the Senate map has "expanded": races in Montana, Nebraska, Alaska, and Texas now appear competitive.
Both agree that “MAGA” energy may not translate into off-year votes, giving Democrats a fighting chance—though Texas (with Talarico) remains a stretch due to demography and lingering primary divisions.
JVL (39:54): "Even if you stopped [the disruption] tomorrow, it's going to take weeks and months to work itself out."
Tim Miller (42:03): "I think that six months ago I would've said Democrats had no chance at the Senate... But Trump has fouled this up so bad... I think that they have a real chance to take both houses of Congress now."
The trio shares thoughts on Hulu’s “Love Story” (Ryan Murphy’s take on JFK Jr. and Carolyn Bessette).
Couric reminisces about her last interview with JFK Jr., reflecting on his charisma and humility.
JVL shares an anecdote from the Weekly Standard days, describing the star-struck newsroom when JFK Jr. visited.
Couric and Miller assess the dramatization’s accuracy, noting it’s both “voyeuristic” and “eye candy,” and discuss portrayals of various Kennedy family figures.
Katie Couric (53:04): “He was much more humble than I anticipated... I did have this whole conversation with him because I’ve been in LA for the last six weeks... I said, governor, what do you think the one word people use when I ask them about you? And he said, resilient? I said, no, slick.”
Tim Miller (55:13): “Talk about frame mogging. Wow.”
JVL (55:43): “Everyone came in in like cocktail dresses and pearls ...when Jon Jon was going to be in the office that day.”
Tim Miller (05:45) on U.S. intelligence and security:
“We've hollowed this stuff out. And we've got Kash running the show now.”
Katie Couric (06:57) on government confusion:
“The whole thing has a 'Who’s on First' feeling, doesn't it?”
JVL (09:06) on Iran’s regime:
“They have now made it through a transition period from one ruler to the next... those are pretty big hurdles for the regime to have successfully mounted.”
JVL (14:16) predicting the endgame:
“The most likely endgame for this is Trump realizes he has to get out, so he has to go and bribe Iran in order to get a deal that he can use to declare victory.”
Tim Miller (36:02) on manliness and politics:
“[Rogan]’s been part of the, like, disintegration of the type of seriousness with which we used to expect from our politicians.”
Tim Miller (42:03) on the Democratic midterm prospects:
“Trump has fouled this up so bad... I think that they have a real chance to take both houses of Congress now.”
Katie Couric (53:04) on Gavin Newsom:
“Is it your hair gel?... can you de-slickify yourself... You’re too polished.”
| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------| | 00:45 | Katie Couric opens as guest host, sets tone | | 03:15 | Synagogue attack, anti-Semitic threats | | 07:49 | Iran succession, Khamenei Jr., regime analysis| | 11:04 | Israel’s strategic objectives | | 16:38 | U.S. goals and strategic confusion | | 21:33 | Couric on Petraeus interview | | 26:55 | Media, war propaganda, “juvenile” behavior | | 29:04 | MAGA machismo, manosphere, Umberto Eco quote | | 32:03 | Manosphere pushback, Rogan, Gen Z politics | | 38:21 | Oil prices, midterms, expanding Senate map | | 43:06 | Texas/Talarico chat, Senate race debate | | 50:32 | “Love Story” (JFK Jr.) pop culture chat | | 62:43 | Upcoming Bulwark live events discussion |
This episode is an incisive, at times darkly funny, and highly accessible rundown of the converging crises confronting America in early 2026: the unintended security and political consequences of the Iran war, the unmooring of U.S. geopolitical strategy, MAGA's embrace of performative masculinity, the wavering loyalties of young men, and a political map in unexpected flux. Katie Couric’s outsider-insider energy sharpens the Bulwark banter, particularly on media, messaging, and unanticipated cultural detours.
Anyone seeking to understand the present moment—confused, overheated, but not without hope—will find both illumination and levity here, as well as the sobering realization that today’s political chaos has no easy parallel... and no easy solution.