Host/Interviewer (3:14)

Numerous Republican lawmakers were on the receiving end of serious frustration and straight up anger from those they represent at recent in person town halls. And many of these lawmakers were in states that voted overwhelmingly for Donald John Trump. I'm talking about Alabama and Ohio where constituents slammed Trump's agenda items, things like cuts to Medicaid and the so called big beautiful bill, his harsh immigration crackdown, the federal takeover of Washington, D.C. and Donald Trump cozying up to dictators. Bottom line, the attendees were loud and clear, saying, we do not want this. Take a listen at a little more of that anger just from this past week.

Tim Miller (4:01)

Trump was doing a great job of securing our rule. Well, the big beautiful bill was actually the Trump tax cut.

Caller or Guest (4:17)

And I would also say that Trump is not a dictator. He's not going to be a dictator. You may think that he may have joked about that, quipped about that. That is his personality. I'm not a psychologist, but I'm not.

Energy Trust of Oregon Representative (4:32)

Going to trust him.

Caller or Guest (4:35)

You're not helping me. Believe me, you're not helping me. You need to take your head out of Trump's ass and start doing your, your representation of us.

Host/Interviewer (4:52)

Mr. Miller, you get the first crack at this. Your reaction to Republican lawmakers getting it handed it to them at a whole bunch of town halls.

Tim Miller (5:03)

Hey, girl. Well, it's good to be with you. They deserve it getting handed to them. They're doing so few of these. I do think it's making it easy for people who are really engaged and really upset right now to organize and get out to those events. And that's what you're seeing, right? Like, you know, we don't obviously Alabama is a red state. You know, that's, you know, overwhelmingly voting for Republicans. It doesn't mean that there aren't any Democrats in Alabama. There are Democrats. There are, there are Independents. There are people that are Republicans who are unhappy with what's happening in the administration, and those are the folks that are motivated to turn out right now. I think that the thing that is probably the most meaningful about this is that's what really drives midterm elections. Energy, engagement, like which side is more motivated to act. You're seeing these things that opponents of this administration, broadly defined, are the ones that are the most engaged right now. I think that is a good sign for opposition as we head into, I guess, there'll be a couple elections this November and then mostly next November. So I think that's like, the biggest takeaway. I'm not sure that you're going to see much change in behavior from these Republicans. They didn't. Very few of them actually did. Town halls. And you can kind of see why.

Host/Interviewer (6:15)

Tim, Iowa is certainly the reddest of red states. But now we've learned in the last couple of days that Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, obviously Republican, is not going to seek reelection. We do not know why, but I think we all remember that town hall that she held in May when she responded to questions about Medicaid cuts, saying everyone will die. That did not go over well. And despite your feelings for this president, I know you still have a lot of Republicans on speed dial. What do you know about her recent decision not to seek reelection?

Tim Miller (6:48)

Sure. And especially in Iowa. I've done a couple of campaigns, have a lot of friends that are working there. Look, I think this actually goes back to the Hegseth confirmation really more than the town hall at the time. You know, we might all roll our eyes at this because the Republicans always seem to fold in the Senate, but that doesn't mean that at least some of them weren't, like, really seriously contemplating their political choices. You know, in the fallout from Trump's second election, he's nominating all these people that are clearly unqualified for Ernst. I think she was hoping she might have been on the Secretary of Defense list. She gets passed over for a weekend Fox and Friends anchor. She has deep concerns, personal concerns, about sexual assault in the military. He has allegations of sexual assault against him. Obviously isn't gonna take that very seriously. Has shown disrespect to women in service. And so there was a lot of pressure on her then to vote for him. And I think that she didn't really want to. Just projecting a little bit from what I've heard from friends, and she ends up voting for him. And here she is now in this situation in the Senate where You just gotta do whatever Donald Trump says. You have no independence. You're getting shouted down at town halls. And it's not a fun job. So I don't have any sympathy for it. It's a job that she signed up for. But I think if you think of it in that context, it makes sense. She's not gonna run. And Iowa is a pretty deep red state now. It was purple not that long ago. Matt Dow can talk to you about that. I think some of his candidates won Iowa a few times not too long ago. So I don't, you know, who knows what happens with the Republicans there. I think if they nominate a mainstream type MAGA Republican, one of the Congresswoman Ashley Hinson, that she probably will be a favorite. If they nominate a lunatic, it could be a state that comes into play for the Democrats, particularly, you know, if we continue to see the momentum that we're seeing, you know, from, from turnout and engagement.

Host/Interviewer (8:35)

Folks on the left, Tim, I turn to you. Donald Trump has the lowest approval rating he's had since entering office. Right now, if Matthew and Eddie are right and they're not just preparing to cheat, cheating is on. Why on earth does this party continue to cling to Donald Trump and not look for, for the other name, the other person, the future of the party. Look at his numbers. Look at how the country's feeling about him.

Tim Miller (9:00)

Yeah, well, cheating is easier than. Separating from Donald Trump would be one part. And I think that obviously that what they're doing, you know, is going to have a big impact in the House. You know, that doesn't. You can't, you can't gerrymander the Senate. So kind of we'll see what the plans are for those guys and how they're going to compete in the Senate. I think the answer for why Republicans are distancing themselves from Trump is right there on that, on that poll you just showed, 93% of Republicans still approve of him. And these senators, these House members, governors, they're responsive to their own base voters first and foremost. And I think the thing that they're the most scared of is being thrown out by their own base voters. I think a lot of these guys live in fear of living the life that Jeff Lake or Liz Cheney or Adam Kinzinger have right now. They don't want to be thrust out from their tribe. They don't want to be, you know, if Joan Ahrens leaves now, she'll be able to get a fancy lobbying job because she's still in good standing in the Republican Party. If you distance for Trump and you lose anyway, you know, then you're really on the outs. And I think that all of these guys are afraid of that deeply. And I think that they judge that to be the bigger threat to them than Donald Trump's unpopularity. And I think that that will continue to be the case until that number of 93% of Republicans supporting Trump goes down.

Host/Interviewer (10:18)

Tim, Trump's adopted home state is Florida, with one of the highest elderly populations in the country. And you know what's really helpful for senior citizens? The ability to vote by mail. So why would Trump push this so hard?

Tim Miller (10:33)

Yeah, also military is another group where it's important to be able to vote by mail, for example. Obviously. Look, I mean, again, I think that like Eddie, again, he's still wrapped around the ax around 2020 in his head. I think that is, I think that is part of it. I think that another thing that I'm worried about, we were talking in the last segment about concerns about cheating in the midterms. I mean, obviously the gerrymandering thing is one part of cheating, but I was thinking more about sometimes you hear people are worried about them messing with the ballots or the machines or something more directly cheating with the vote count. I'm not concerned about that. As compared to a stop the steal redux where the cheat happens after the election, I think it's not really that far fetched because they've already done it. To imagine a situation where maybe Democrats win the House by a narrow margin and Mike Johnson and Donald Trump say that we're not going to seat Democrats that won in states that were all male voting, California, Colorado, Washington, a lot of those are blue states, for example. And so this might be kind of a pretense to complain or cheat later. I think that is like as likely as them trying to actually change the rules this time because, you know, for now, we still have a republic with locally run elections. And Donald Trump's executive executive order isn't worth anything unless the local jurisdictions decide to cancel mail in ballot.

Host/Interviewer (11:58)

Tim, thank you for joining us this afternoon.