Bulwark Takes – Tim Miller: "There's One Issue That Splits Trump’s Base"

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Host: The Bulwark
Guest: Tim Miller
Date: September 23, 2025

Overview:

This episode features Tim Miller diving into how the ongoing fights over free speech are causing rare fissures inside the Trump/MAGA base. Sparked by Jimmy Kimmel’s return to air in the face of Trump-driven intimidation of media and comedians, Miller explores whether First Amendment issues are central enough to American identity that even die-hard Trump supporters might push back against anti-speech authoritarianism. Offering uncharacteristic optimism, he discusses whether this norm could unite a cross-ideological coalition against overreach, and why so many institutions have capitulated to intimidation without explicit government threat.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Jimmy Kimmel’s Return as a Free Speech Stand

• [01:40 – 03:30]
  Miller recounts being on TV as the news broke about Jimmy Kimmel resuming his show amid pressures to silence him, a situation symbolic of broader attacks on First Amendment rights during the Trump era.
  He shares a rare moment of optimism that pushback against these intimidation tactics may be growing.

  “It was a rare change of role where Nicole [Wallace] had to offer a moment of cynicism or a moment of a counter to my more bullish pitch about the way that we're seeing some signs that people are rallying around the commitment to free speech in this country.”
  – Tim Miller [01:55]

2. Pattern of Intimidation vs. Institutional Capitulation

• [03:31 – 05:40]
  Miller observes that Trump has often gotten results simply via public threats and intimidation (i.e. “bleats,” veiled threats), causing media and business institutions to self-censor or preemptively cave without legal basis.

  “Way too many people this year, way too many prominent organizations and institutions have just... folded to his pressure campaign. And... throughout all of this, we've said, well, we don't exactly know how far he will go.”
  – Tim Miller [04:28]

  • Institutions (like Disney affiliates) silenced Kimmel absent direct legal action; Miller argues more should simply reply, “See you in court,” forcing the administration to back up threats with real action, which he doubts they'd follow through on.

  “Why don't these institutions say, okay, you want to come after us? You want FCC Chairman Brendan Carr to come after us? Do it. Let's go to court.”
  – Tim Miller [05:10]

3. First Amendment: The Issue That Splits Trump’s Base

• [05:41 – 07:16]
  Miller posits that while the MAGA right has largely been loyal to Trump across multiple issues and ethical breaches, free speech is so ingrained as an “American instinct” that it causes resistance even within his own coalition.

  “The free speech issue is just so fundamental. It's not even just Republicans... It's just such a part of the American fabric. Like anybody that's American is like, this is, it's the First Amendment.... It is instinctual for a whole lot of people, not everybody, but a whole lot of people. And that is including some people within the Trump, within the MAGA movement.”
  – Tim Miller [06:20]

• He notes that Trump’s coalition tolerates much in support of him, but “some minority percentage” of his supporters reach their limit when speech is constrained—even those in the ‘manosphere’ and podcasting worlds.

  “While they're willing to suffer a lot of other indignities and humiliations on his behalf, there's at least some minority percentage of them that start to get their backup.”
  – Tim Miller [06:49]

• Miller sees this “glimmer of hope” as potentially significant for democratic resilience.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Authoritarian Overreach and the American Response:

  “You want the Department of Justice to go after your political foes? Find a grand jury.... If you start doing that, then this admin administration, I think, is going to be slowed down quite a bit in their authoritarian aspirations. And you can see that maybe the pro democracy side can get some wins under their belt.”
  – Tim Miller [05:30]

• On What Makes Free Speech Non-Negotiable:

  “We get to say what we want. Like, we don’t have kings, we don’t have dictators telling us to shut us up. And it is instinctual for a whole lot of people, not everybody, but a whole lot of people.”
  – Tim Miller [06:27]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:40] – Opening: Kimmel’s return and Miller’s rare optimism
• [03:31] – Trump’s intimidation playbook and institutional capitulation
• [05:41] – Unique status of free speech issue inside the MAGA base
• [06:20] – American “instinct” for free speech and potential for cross-ideological pushback
• [06:49] – “Minority percentage” of Trump’s coalition resistant to authoritarianism on speech

Tone & Speaker Style

• Tim Miller brings a candid, analytical, and occasionally wryly optimistic tone.
• The episode has a sense of urgency, but Miller intentionally spotlights moments of potential unity and resistance, even for an often-cynical audience.

Summary Takeaway

Tim Miller contends that free speech—unlike other issues that have seen the MAGA right fall in line behind Trump—remains a core American value strong enough to cause splits within his base. Recent events, including Jimmy Kimmel’s standoff, signal that even amid rising authoritarianism, there are still limits to what the American public—across the political spectrum—will tolerate when it comes to fundamental rights. Miller argues that increased institutional courage and public rallying around the First Amendment can help thwart further overreach.