Tim Miller: They Elected a Moron, Now They’re Coping

Summary

Bulwark Takes: Tim Miller - "They Elected a Moron, Now They’re Coping"
Release Date: April 8, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, hosted by Tim Miller from The Bulwark, the discussion centers around the current political and economic climate under President Trump’s administration. Titled “They Elected a Moron, Now They’re Coping”, Miller delves into the Republican Party's strategies, the impact of tariffs, and the broader implications for the American economy. Joining him is Nicole Wallace, providing additional insights and analysis.

Tariffs and Economic Policy

The Impact of Tariffs

The conversation kicks off with Nicole Wallace highlighting a recent MSNBC segment where she discussed the tariffs and the tepid Republican response as they navigate an impending Trump session.

At [00:47], Tim Miller states:

"The politics is that Republicans will lose both chambers. Why does Trump want that?"

This remark underscores the precarious position of the Republican Party within the current political landscape and hints at strategic missteps.

Trump's Unilateral Decisions

Miller critiques President Trump's approach to tariffs, particularly his unilateral decisions that have negatively impacted the stock market. He refers to these actions as "man-made" crises similar to historical events like the 9/11 attacks or the 2008 financial crash but emphasizes that this situation is a result of singular leadership decisions.

At [01:02], Miller elaborates:

"That's why we're calling it Orange Monday, not Black Monday."

He points out the lack of a coherent strategy from Trump, labeling the administration's actions as reactive rather than part of a well-thought-out plan to rebalance trade.

Republican Party Dynamics

Internal Conflicts and Inaction

Nicole Wallace and Tim Miller discuss the internal conflicts within the Republican Party, particularly the reluctance of moderate Republicans to challenge Trump’s policies. Wallace describes the current state as "cope," indicating a denial or refusal to acknowledge the detrimental effects of Trump's leadership.

At [04:54], Wallace reflects on Doug Holtz-Eakin's analysis:

"We're headed towards a recession and probably stagflation, like that's not coming from somebody you know in our camp."

This statement highlights the division within the party between those supporting Trump's aggressive tariff policies and moderates warning of economic downturns.

Lack of Legislative Action

The episode further explores why certain legislative measures, such as taking back tariff authority from the president, are stalled. Wallace notes the inaction from key Republican figures who could otherwise push forward sensible economic policies.

At [07:17], she comments:

"There are a lot of different levers they could pull. It's just they've all decided they don't want to pull them..."

This frustration underscores the paralysis within the party, preventing any constructive opposition to Trump's policies.

Economic Implications

Potential Recession and Stagflation

Doug Holtz-Eakin’s warnings about an impending recession and stagflation are a focal point of the discussion. He argues for a more structured and legislative approach to imposing tariffs, which contrasts sharply with Trump's improvisational tactics.

At [04:05], Eakin suggests:

"If this was part of the congressional process, they would have to pass it in law... It would be a sane process."

This insight emphasizes the need for accountability and deliberation in economic policymaking, which is currently absent under Trump’s administration.

Potential Solutions and Political Strategies

Leveraging Moderate Republicans

Miller and Wallace contemplate the potential for moderate Republicans to regain control by pushing back against Trump's policies. Wallace highlights the historic lack of party-switching in recent decades, suggesting that leadership among moderates could pivot the party towards more rational economic policies.

At [08:18], Wallace states:

"If things got that bad, I mean, I bet Brian Fitzpatrick could win as a Democrat in his suburban Philly district if he decided he wanted to do that anyway."

This points to the untapped potential within the party’s moderate wing to effect change.

The Call for Action

Miller urges the moderate Republicans to take decisive action, arguing that the fear of losing primary support has stifled their willingness to challenge Trump. He suggests that a strategic, bipartisan coalition could address economic issues more effectively.

At [06:20], Miller posits:

"You could get really crazy and tell Mike Johnson that they're going to do what Nat Gaetz did and try to tank his speakership over this."

This bold statement encourages the party to put principles over party loyalty to safeguard the nation's economic future.

Conclusion and Insights

The episode culminates in a somber reflection on the state of the Republican Party and the American economy. Tim Miller emphasizes the importance of courage and strategic action among Republicans to mitigate the adverse effects of Trump's policies. He underscores the necessity for a unified effort to restore economic stability and governance integrity.

At [07:22], Wallace adds:

"These frontlines, are scared."

This sentiment encapsulates the anxiety and urgency felt by both leaders and citizens regarding the current administration's trajectory.

Notable Quotes

• Tim Miller [00:47]: "The politics is that Republicans will lose both chambers. Why does Trump want that?"
• Tim Miller [01:02]: "That's why we're calling it Orange Monday, not Black Monday."
• Doug Holtz-Eakin [04:05]: "If this was part of the congressional process, they would have to pass it in law... It would be a sane process."
• Nicole Wallace [07:17]: "There are a lot of different levers they could pull. It's just they've all decided they don't want to pull them..."
• Nicole Wallace [08:18]: "If things got that bad... Brian Fitzpatrick could win as a Democrat in his suburban Philly district if he decided he wanted to do that anyway."
• Nicole Wallace [07:22]: "These frontlines, are scared."

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This episode of Bulwark Takes provides a critical examination of the Republican Party's current struggles under Trump's presidency, highlighting the economic repercussions of aggressive tariff policies and the internal party conflicts that hinder effective governance. Through insightful dialogue and expert analysis, Tim Miller and Nicole Wallace call for a resurgence of moderate Republican action to address and rectify the nation's economic challenges.

Transcript

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[Nicole Wallace]

Hey, guys, just left. MSNBC had the chance to pop off with Nicole about the tariffs, as well as the tepid reaction to them from the Republicans who are trying to figure out how to survive an impending Trump session. Check it out.

[Tim Miller]

The politics, the gravitational pull. The politics is that Republicans will lose both chambers. Why does Trump want that?

[Nicole Wallace]

Does he believe that? I guess. I don't know. This is all we get into the psycho Ted Cruz. Clearly, we get into psychoanalyst.

[Tim Miller]

Well, let me show you. Let me show you where his coalition is. Here's David Portnoy.

[Howard Lutnick]

This one's the only one that I can think of that's like, man made. Like, the stock market crashes in 9, 11. Yes. Stock market crashed, Covid. Yes. But this is like a decision that one guy made that crashed the whole stock market. That's why we're calling it Orange Monday, not Black Monday. I saw Howard Lutnick being like, we're going to live in a world where there's an army of Americans screwing in little things into iPhones. Like, what? What Americans going to take that job? So to me, this is all about negotiating the tariff rates. It's all about getting equal trade, fair trade, which everybody wants. And it's a noble thing that Trump's trying to get done, but he can't really have leverage negotiating these deals. If the stock market is going to crash, everyone's going to join. What's he called, the panicking party, and he has to reverse course. You see, he's kind of like, stuck.

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[Nicole Wallace]

See? Yeah. What I see a lot from Dave Portnoy and from the Mar A Lago Accord crowd. I listen to a long podcast about that to try to understand it. The other day is what I would call cope. Cope is the word that's happening because these guys just refuse to believe the reality that's in front of their eyes, which is that they elected a moron who bankrupted a casino as president, and now he's doing to the country what he did to several casinos. Like that is what is happening here. There's not any complex plan in place. There's not a 40 chess negotiation happening to rebalance trade between US and Europe. Like there's not. Like none of that isthey're not devaluing the dollar to pay down the debt. Like none of that is part of the plan. Like this is a mad king who doesn't know what he's doing, who, who loves the word tariff and who is stubborn and who is going to ride or die on this. Maybe one day he'll change his mind and decide I can declare victory because I have a cult of 33% of supporters that will go along with it. And I'm annoyed with rich people calling me and complaining. That might happen someday, but that won't be because it was part of a broader plan that was in place. Here's the other thing. If the negotiations were happening, let's even give them the best case scenario. Let's say that Scott Besant and Trump negotiate 15 deals with Israel and Turkey and a handful of other countries we still like. The China tariffs are going the wrong direction. He's moving them up to 104% and even if they cut 12 deals, we still would have a tariff increase that would be beyond anything that happened. And Trump 1.0 anything that any of the small tariffs that Biden did like any imaginable tariffs. So that wouldn't, you know, it might help the stock market for a day or two but it would not help like these long term systemic problems that are being created. And I was pretty struck by Doug Holtz Eakin. I don't know if all of the viewers like caught this but in a normal Republican presidency, Doug would be have Kevin Hassett's job or Scott Bessant's job. And for him just to bluntly say we're headed towards a recession and probably stagflation, like that's not coming from somebody you know in our camp.

[Doug Holtz-Eakin]

No, I know they can number one limit that authority by saying okay, we'll take votes on those emergencies. And they did one in the Senate and pass it's probably not going to get through the House. Or they could take back the powers of levy tariffs, take it away from the president. And there are bills to do that. So think about this, Nicole. If this was part of the congressional process, they would have to pass it in law. Probably in this reconciliation bill there would be an effective date. You'd know when they started. There would be a rate. You would know what that rate would be there would be a base. You would know what countries were in and out, what products were in or out, who got an exemption instead of going out of Commerce and trying to get one out of, you know, lobbying Secretary Lutnick, it would be a sane process. You would not like tariffs, but you would deliver them in a reasoned and debated way. And they gave that away.

[Tim Miller]

Tim?

[Nicole Wallace]

Yes, I agree with a lot of what Doug said there, but there was one kind of thing you allied it over, which is this bill to take back some control. I believe it was just on the Canada tariffs that passed the Senate. And he said, well, you know, that's probably not going to get through the House. But, like, why is that? Well, it's because Mike Johnson won't bring it up because it would get through the House if you actually brought it up to a vote. And so then the question is, is it incumbent on the Republicans in the House who are opposed to this to not just say they're opposed to it when they go on CNN or whatever, but to actually do something? Because they could do that. Mike Lawler here in New York and Don Bacon and Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania, they could all get together and just and either pass a there's a certain type of resolution that forces a vote. They could do that. They could get really crazy and tell Mike Johnson that they're going to do what Nat Gaetz did and try to tank his speakership over this. Like the small handful of moderate Republicans in the House who are smartly or rightly criticizing this actually have power and agency here. It's just we haven't seen them use it in like a decade or two. So we sort of forget that they do. But they do. They could act right now and we could stop. They could stop this this afternoon. If Don Bacon put up a privileged resolution, they forced it through the House and through the Senate, and then Trump could veto it, or we'd see how that would turn out. But the majority votes are against this in both houses. If the small group of normal Republicans had the courage to do something about.

[Tim Miller]

It, well, I'm done looking for courage. Why not their own political salvation? I mean, right now, the smart political bet, right? Like, there's no courage. Like, that's so 2014. But why not? I mean, you could be well funded if you put together a economy coalition in Congress with Democrats and Republicans. Jamie Dimon is obviously shopping for someone who's interested in not destroying the economy. I mean, you'd have a receptive ear on Capitol Hill. You could also do what used to happen in the old days. I mean, Congress used to. Senators used to mean something around the world. I mean, you've got men and women in the Congress who don't mean anything. I don't know why anyone would go into codell because they have taken that branch of government off the field in terms of governance. I mean, why wouldn't you do it if not because you know it's wrong, because you know it's political suicide.

[Nicole Wallace]

Yeah. Look, and all these guys are scared of Trump, I guess, that they're losing a primary. But these guys, these frontlines, are scared.

[Tim Miller]

Of their neighbors and their voters. They're angry and scared.

[Nicole Wallace]

I think that's exactly right. And maybe, you know, it's only been, what, four days that the market started to go down, and so maybe that calculus changes for some of them. We haven't seen a lot of evidence of that over the last. Since 2016. But look, I think so. I've been saying this for a long time. Just as a side thing for him to play fantasy politics and go back to the old days, people used to switch parties. It's crazy, kind of to me that none of these people have done that since Trump got in in 2016. I mean, in our time, Arlen Specter and Jim Jeffords, we could go down the list. So if things got that bad, I mean, I bet Brian Fitzpatrick could win as a Democrat in his suburban Philly district if he decided he wanted to do that anyway. There are a lot of different levers they could pull. It's just they've all decided they don't want to pull them, and then, you know, they're going to tweet about it instead and hope that they can survive.

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