Bulwark Takes – Tim Miller: Trump Can’t Stop What He Started

Date: January 17, 2026
Host: Tim Miller (The Bulwark)
Guest/Segments: Sarah Matthews (briefly mentioned), Chris Jansing (cited interview), Quote from Ben Shapiro

Episode Overview

In this episode, Tim Miller dives into the latest developments in national politics, focusing on the fallout from Donald Trump’s policies, MAGA infighting over abortion, the impact of civil rights activism in Minnesota, and shifting projections for the House of Representatives. Miller critiques Trump’s engagement with foreign activists, the handling of federal immigration enforcement, and the broader 2026 election landscape, emphasizing tension within the GOP and opportunities for Democrats.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s “Fake Nobel Peace Prize” and Foreign Policy “Trophies”

[01:00–06:30]

• Machado’s Medal: Tim Miller discusses Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado’s visit to the White House, where she presented Trump with a symbolic medal.
  • Miller’s Take: Trump cares more about collecting “trophies” than true support for democracy or human rights.
  • Quote: “Donald Trump’s kind of the person that says, hey, great, thank you. I appreciate the trophy. I’m going to keep it. I’m going to put it in my trophy room and then not do anything for you. That’s…my assessment of Donald Trump’s character.” (Tim Miller, [02:13])
• Critique on Presentation: Miller jokes about the “janky” framing of the medal, likening it to “the type of thing that…you give out to kids at the end of soccer season.” (~[03:00])
• Nobel Committee Response: He highlights the Nobel committee’s cheeky statement clarifying the Nobel Peace Prize status can’t be transferred, even as Trump tries to collect accolades.
  • Insight: This episode critiques not only Trump’s showmanship but the superficial symbolism often employed in international advocacy.

2. Trump, Oil Funds, and Executive Power

[04:20–06:00]

• Miller references reporting (including JVL’s newsletter) on Trump trying to find "other funding sources inside the executive branch"—specifically, creating accounts that bypass Congress.
  • Implication: Raises alarm over “ominous” efforts to centralize power and fund “reigns of terror” without legislative oversight.

3. Civil Rights & Protests in Minnesota

[06:00–11:30]

• ICE, CBP Actions & Public Protest: Miller expresses admiration for Minnesota protesters confronting harsh winter conditions to object to aggressive immigration enforcement.
  • Motivation for Protest: Protesters’ courage is highlighted, and there's mention of public and private polling showing declining support for Trump’s immigration stance.
  • Quote: “...Trump is continuing to look for ways to create other funding sources inside the executive branch so it doesn’t have to go through Congress. It’s pretty ominous, particularly as we get to this next topic as you look ahead to how he might behave after the midterms...” (Tim Miller, [04:43])
• White House Leaks: Miller explains that internal leaks about polling are likely attempts to pressure Trump to 'back off' unpopular policies, exposing cracks within the administration.
• Analysis of Trump's Motivations:
  • Trump cares about optics on TV and is “a tabloid person.” He dislikes bad media images, which sometimes limits the harshness of his policies.
  • Compares Trump’s dynamic to prior administration stories—such as the “Jivanka effect” (Jared and Ivanka’s supposed moderating influence).
  • Quote: “One of the only things that has saved us from even a worse catastrophe than the living catastrophe we are experiencing is that Trump, he’s a TV person, he’s a tabloid person. He doesn’t like the bad images. He never really has.” (Tim Miller, [09:20])
• Advice to Democrats: Miller insists Democrats should “push on the gas” about the unpopularity of Trump’s immigration measures, urging them to fight more aggressively on this ground.

4. Authoritarian “Clown Awards” & DHS Ridicule

[11:30–13:58]

• Trisha McLaughlin (DHS Spokesperson): Miller spotlights McLaughlin for her machine-like defense of indefensible ICE actions, mocking her absurd appearances on Fox News.
  • Quote (sarcastic): “That is a federal crime in Minnesota. Pouring cold water on the ground. That’s what the party of freedom wants to tell the citizens this week…” (Tim Miller, [12:00])
• Notable Clip: DHS claims protestors endangered ICE agents by pouring water on the ground to form ice, causing federal vehicles/officers to possibly slip (“They might be detained...even if they’re a US citizen. That’s what these guys have planned.” (Miller, [12:20]))
• Humor: Mocks the ineptitude of ICE agents coping with Minnesota winters, suggesting the administration’s scapegoating is ridiculous.
  • Memorable moment: Encourages Minnesotans to stay peaceful but jokes about dumping ice from their Subway drinks for effect. (~[13:40])

5. MAGA Infighting and the Role of Abortion in 2026 Elections

[13:58–16:45]

• House Projections Turning Democratic: Cites Cook Political Report shifts and discusses Democrats’ improved prospects, even in some red states.
  • Miller’s Note: Anti-abortion groups threaten to withhold support if Trump waffles, but history shows Trump can bluff “Pro-Life Inc.”—they always come back.
  • Quote: “Trump has a lot of leverage to call their bluff...Pro Life Inc. has come around to Trump every time.” (Tim Miller, [14:27])
• Risk and Strategy: Trump has a history of “wiggling” on contentious issues to try to broaden appeal without alienating core supporters. It’s a “risky bet,” but precedent suggests it works.
• Polling & Demographics: With strong state-by-state support for abortion rights, the power of anti-abortion groups is limited to a shrinking number of deeply red districts.

6. GOP Weakness and Democratic Opportunity

[16:32–End (~18:15)]

• Ben Shapiro Clip:
  • “Republicans have no chance in this midterm. Right. I think that they are in for a world of hurt right now...President Trump isn’t on the ballot, so he doesn’t really have coattails among the low propensity electorate...” (Ben Shapiro via Gavin Newsom’s podcast, [16:44])
• Miller’s Analysis:
  • Notes redistricting has reduced competitive swing districts.
  • Suggests that in a “wave” election, Democrats must focus on expanding the map to less obvious targets—districts Republicans won by double digits previously.
  • Stresses the importance of heterodox, cross-party-appeal candidates in evolving battlegrounds such as Oklahoma City, Charleston, and potentially places like North Tampa.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Tim Miller on Trump’s approach to diplomacy:

  • “If you’re gonna try to go the whole way here and make a big deal out of giving the medal, I might have done some better framing...Uptown Frames here in New Orleans...would have looked a plus.” ([03:13])

• On civil protest and authoritarian absurdity:

  • “Can we laugh at these fucking little authoritarian thugs?” ([11:30])
  • “Nothing wrong with...kind of dumping that ice on the ground when you’re done with your iced tea. Just have a hoagie in hand just in case.” ([13:40])

• On the enduring impact of Trump’s style:

  • “You can’t really change. Like, this is what mass deportations look like. Right? There’s no way to do it in a softer, gentler way.” ([10:30])

• On Democratic strategy:

  • “The question for the Democrats is more about expanding the map...in a wave election year, if Republicans voter turnout is depressed...that’s possible.” ([17:18])

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Trump’s “trophy” diplomacy, Machado’s visit | 01:00–04:20 | | Executive power and oil money maneuvers | 04:20–06:00 | | ICE/CBP enforcement and Minnesota protests | 06:00–11:30 | | Authoritarian “Clown Awards” and DHS absurdities | 11:30–13:58 | | Abortion fights and House race implications | 13:58–16:45 | | Ben Shapiro’s GOP pessimism & Miller’s 2026 map strategy | 16:45–18:15 |

Episode Summary

In this sharp and irreverent rundown, Tim Miller skewers Trump’s penchant for symbolic wins, exposes tension and cracks in MAGA world over abortion and immigration, and highlights the invigorated civil resistance in places like Minnesota. Miller mocks the authoritarian impulse he sees as clownish and short-sighted, while urging Democrats to capitalize on Republican weakness by being bolder, particularly on immigration where Trump’s policies are deeply unpopular. The episode closes by scanning the electoral horizon, arguing that if Democrats stretch their ambitions, a wave year could flip districts once thought out of reach—so long as they don’t play it too safe.