← Bulwark Takes
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- [00:00]
Tim Miller
Hey, everybody, Just got off with Nicole Wallace, and we talked about two really important topics we haven't really gotten to on the channel. So I wanted to show you both of those. The first was President Obama gave a panel, I believe it was Heather Cox Richardson we've had on the show, where he was talking about the threats to democracy here and how he wants essentially the liberal elites or centrist elites, however you want to put it, to stiffen their spine and to not fold when they're pressured and about the importance of that and about how that might require a little sacrifice and that's okay. So we talked about that. I threw just a hint of shade at the old president about the forum for that, and I just, I kind of want him to expand his remit a little bit. I think it's an easy ask, but you can check that out. And then with Justin Wolfers we've had on the show, we also talked about the economic numbers today, which were just, they're brutal and they're not like catastrophic Great Depression, but they're ugly and not good and not promising, both on the economic growth and job side and on the inflation side. So we get into that. So stick around for both. We'll be back here soon. Subscribe to the feed if you haven't. Why haven't you subscribed? Subscribe. We'll see you soon.
- [01:17]
Justin Wolfers
Former President Barack Obama issued a stark warning last night about how weak our democracy has become. The former former president saying we are dangerously close to our government operating like an autocracy. And he warned that democracy requires government workers, judges and lawyers at the Justice Department to uphold the Constitution and follow the law, saying this, quote, it requires them to take that oath seriously. And when that isn't happening, we start drifting into something that is not consistent with American democracy. It is consistent with autocracies. It is consistent with Hungary under Orban. He went on, quote, we're not there yet completely, but I think that we are dangerously close to normalizing behavior like that. And we need people both outside government and inside government saying, quote, let's not go over that cliff because it's hard to recover. Tim. He also said this, quote, you could be as progressive and socially conscious as you wanted and you didn't have to pay a price before. He said, you could still make a lot of money. You could still hang out in Aspen and Milan and travel and have a house in the Hamptons and still think of yourself as a progressive. We now have a situation in which all of us are going to be tested in some way. And we're going to have to decide what our commitments will be. Now things are a little different. You might lose some of your donors if you're a university, and if you're a law firm, your billings might drop a little bit, which means you can't remodel that kitchen in your house in the Hamptons this summer. I mean, it's, it's, it's Obama cool. But it is dripping with disdain for people choosing comfort and their corporate clients over standing up for democracy. And I, I wonder what you thought of that, Tim.
- [02:55]
Tim Miller
Yeah, a couple of different thoughts. One I share is disdain that sometimes it's hard to keep down, you know, for people that are not standing up in this moment, because we're kind of still at the easy part of standing up. If we could just be honest, like, we have a. We certainly have creeping authoritarianism. But, you know, if you're on the Harvard board or you're one of these law firms, and we've seen some, some folks do the right thing in law firms, and we should acknowledge that, but the ones that haven't, boy, folding is not a great sign when things get hotter in the kitchen. The other thing that I would say about what he said, it reminded me. I was talking to Ben Rhodes, his former national security advisor, this morning for the podcast, and Ben pointed out something just about where we are in this process towards authoritarianism I hadn't thought about, which is that he's like, we always say, well, we might get to Hungary. And in a lot of ways, Orban has grabbed power in a more authoritarian manner than Trump has. But there are some things that Trump is doing right now that hasn't happened, that isn't really happening in Hungary. There aren't military on the streets of cities. Opposition leaders aren't getting, like, manhandled like, like Brad Lander and Alex Padilla. So in some ways, we're past that. I think that's good perspective. My last thing about Obama, you mentioned the Obama cool. You know, far be it for me to give him advice, but I'd like to hear President Obama making those points with Joe Rogan and Theo Vaughn and like, God and Bro Pods, not with like, academ on panels. I just think that he has a higher and better purpose in this moment. So that's just my friendly request.
- [04:28]
Justin Wolfers
Tim. The president getting at this liberal elite piece is so interesting because the Republican smear against the Obamas is that they just run in all these elite circles. And as most former presidents are technically elites. Right. They've served their country and they're in an elite group of former presidents. But he is uniquely situated to call out people who haven't necessarily served their country but are super comfortable. He talks about going to Aspen and Milan. I don't know what happens in Milan. I'll have to Google that. But this idea that there are still people on the sidelines is interesting coming from him.
- [05:14]
Tim Miller
It is. And I appreciate that. I appreciate what Mark just said. And I guess that kind of goes to what, what I was saying at the end there about what I wish he was doing. Because the President Obama, I think, has, has a unique ability to influence certain demographics. Right. It's like Fox News viewers aren't going to listen to President Obama. So it probably doesn't make a lot of sense for him to use his time doing that or to pop off the daily news cycle. As you said, this is one area where he can, he can name and shame the kind of maybe not even liberal, but like the centrist elite class. Right. And try to pressure them to do the right thing. I think that's very useful and I'm happy that he's doing it and because we have seen folding in various places and maybe he can help stiffen the spine of folks who admire him or who, you know, he might, you know, might run in those circles. And then again, just back to kind of this, this bro talk. I just, I do think there's an opportunity there for Democrats and that Democrats need to really, really work on it. And probably as good as a $20 million plan or whatever it is for some, from some consultants would just be Barack Obama just going out there and leveling with people. And so anyway, I think those are both two audiences that's very useful for him talking to. And I do think it's noteworthy who he is, who he's trying to speak to.
- [06:28]
Justin Wolfers
Well, I guess I would put Alyssa, Senator Alyssa Slatkin in the mix, too. I mean, she calling them out, telling Pete Hegsell he doesn't balls to do what his predecessor did before him. I think that's some straight talk that is welcome. You know, I don't know if they melt in the manosphere when they get delivered inconvenient truths like that. But it was certainly refreshing to hear her speak so bluntly.
- [06:51]
Donald Trump
They call him too late pal, because he's always too late. I mean, if you look at him, every time I did this, I was right 100%. He was wrong. Maybe I should go to the Fed. Am I allowed to point myself? He's not A smart person. I think he hates me, but that's okay. You know, he should, he should. I call him every name in the book, trying to get him to do something. I'm nasty, I'm nice. Nothing works. He's like just a stupid person.
- [07:16]
Justin Wolfers
Way too deep inside the mind of Donald Trump. That might be what it looks like. When Trump doesn't get what he wants out of someone, he reveals his strategy of smearing him on a daily basis. That was Trump today blasting Fed chair Jerome Powell for refusing to cave to his bullying, his demands that he cut interest rates. This afternoon, the Fed did not cave. It declined to lower rates again. Why, you might ask? Well, it could have something to do with Donald Trump's tariff policy, which remains in constant flux, completely incoherent. According to cnbc, Powell and his colleagues have expressed hesitation about adjusting rates. With so many open questions regarding the Trump economy. For one, the long term impact of Trump's tariffs is a known unknown. Joining our conversation, professor of economics and Public policy at the University of Michigan, Justin Wolfers. Tim Miller is here as well. Justin, it seems perfectly logical, even without a background in economics, that you can't change rates one way or the other when you have no idea what's happening with Donald Trump's global trade war.
- [08:27]
Heather Cox Richardson
Yeah, and that's basically what Fed Chair Powell said today. He said, I don't know whether I'm going to be making policy for a high tariff world or a low tariff world. I could start to shift the lever right now in order to figure that out. But why don't I just sit tight for a while and wait and see how things pan out. And honestly, that seems like a pretty useful way forward.
- [08:47]
Justin Wolfers
Tim Miller, you know my obsession with the best people brand. I've stolen it, every appropriated it for my own podcast. But it seems that every problem he's having right now has its roots in what he thought was going to make his second presidency a roaring success. He thought by picking the worst people at their particular areas of expertise, but who may have been the most loyal to him instead, that he would have smooth sailing. It is the opposite. It is why he is so bogged down on his trade war. It is why he has his key members of his coalition, Warrington, wherever they show up to war on Iran. I mean, it is why everything is a mess and his approval ratings are plunging by the day.
- [09:37]
Tim Miller
Yeah, that's absolutely right. And I'm into your new podcast. I saw Doc Rivers was on there, which I was pretty jealous of, so just a little competitive jealousy. There. But as far as his best people, best people, here's the thing about this time versus the last time. I think we focused a lot, rightly on how he will have all these enablers around him this time and how that makes things more dangerous on the authoritarian spectrum we talked about in the last segment. But it's also true that he has worse people around him when it comes to the implementation of policy and economic policy in particular. What you have is this kind of Frankenstein monster of the worst elements of Republican right wing policy of the past, this huge debt busting tax bill that is going through the Hill. None of the debt hawks are deficit hawks from past vast Republican worlds are out there, except for Tom Massey shouting alone into the ether. Right. So we're going to have a huge increase in the deficit which is going to increase everybody's interest rates. And then on the tariffs, you have Howard Letnick and barely have anybody trying to stop him from doing the tariffs this time. He's tacoed a few times, but we still have tariffs going in at a much higher rate than we did last time. And then on immigration, you're seeing the old Chamber of Commerce Republicans trying to be like, whoa, can you chill out on some of the deportation of the workers? And he thought about doing that for a day, but it seems like they're not doing that. So you combine all that and you have higher prices for everything for because of the tariffs, higher prices because you're going to have a worker shortage, higher prices because of the tariffs on the actual equipment that they're supposed to be building with in construction sites, and higher interest rates on everybody because the deficit is skyrocketing. It's just like it's bad policy. It's significantly worse economic policy than the first time. And I think that sometimes that gets lost because it's a little wonkier than the other topics. But it's pretty clear at this point, six months in.
- [11:39]
Justin Wolfers
Yeah. It also turns out to be the biggest political betrayal in modern presidential politics. Trump ran until election day on making, quote, the grocery cheaper. He says they talk about the grocery and the grocery and then literally in the transition says, oh no, it's going to be really hard to make things go down. They might actually go up.
- [11:59]
Tim Miller
Is the president okay with this bill adding to the deficit?
- [12:04]
Justin Wolfers
This bill does not add to the deficit. In fact, according to the Council of Economic Advisers, this bill will save $1.6 trillion. There's $1.6 trillion worth of savings in this bill. That's the largest savings for Any legislation that has ever passed Capitol Hill in our nation's history. TIM Even on Earth 4, I don't even think you can say that on Earth two or three. What is she talking about?
- [12:33]
Tim Miller
I think she's just going to the Sean Spicer school of press secretary ing there. It's just a lie. It's just like a blatant, just like a blatant lie. I don't believe your lying eyes type lie. Here's the thing though, on economics, unlike some of this other stuff, it's hard to get your lies to sink in with people because people feel it and they'll know it. Right. We had a new report out today that they revised down what we think the GDP is going to be. They revised up what they think inflation is going to be so they can go, they can shout from the podium about how everything's great, but people know how much things cost in their lives and it becomes a much more challenging thing to spin than some of the other BS that Trump spins.
- [13:12]
Justin Wolfers
Justin, what are the consequences for the economy here on Earth one where we all reside to the big not so beautiful bill.
- [13:22]
Heather Cox Richardson
So the first thing is huge effect on the deficit. The thing I want you to understand is the deficit right now, right now is the largest it's been in the pre Covid economy. Of course things went haywire with COVID They're taking that deficit and they're adding to it. So the non partisan Congressional Budget Office says somewhere between two and a half and $3 trillion and pretty soon now we're going to be talking about real money. The implication of that is interest rates are going to go up. But the real kitchen table part of this is a deficit is not just how much. The budget's not just how much we spend versus how much we take in, it's who we give what to. And it turns out that the top 10% gain from this and every other decile loses, particularly working and middle class Americans. They stand to lose on the order of 1,000 to $2,000 per family each year as a result in order to pay for those tax cuts for the wealthy.
- [14:20]
Justin Wolfers
Tim the political betrayal is a real hallmark of this administration in that in 1.0 he tried to cleave off his own supporters from the damage that he did to the country to the rule of law, to other things. There's no way to protect what he sees as his people from his economic damage.
- [14:39]
Tim Miller
No, there really isn't. And there is betrayal. I mean you could try. There's certain things you could do and the first term. Like a classic example of this with the terrorists is this massive bailout for the farmers. Like the farmer bailout for the first term, I think cost more than the entire State Department. And so maybe they do other stuff, put little goodies in this bill. But, yeah, inflation affects everybody and it's going to continue to, and he's not going to be able to fix it.