Tim’s Theory: Trump Doesn’t Even Care About the Midterms

Summary

---

Bulwark Takes – "Tim’s Theory: Trump Doesn’t Even Care About the Midterms"

Podcast Host: The Bulwark
Featured Voices: Tim Miller, Katie Turr, Vaughn Hilliard
Date: July 3, 2026

---

Episode Overview

This episode dives into Tim Miller’s provocative theory that Donald Trump is strangely disengaged from the upcoming midterm elections, focusing more on self-enrichment, legacy, and personal branding than political victory. The conversation, joined by Katie Turr and Vaughn Hilliard, examines the economic woes under Trump’s renewed presidency, the theatrical mess surrounding the America 250th celebrations, Trump’s ever-self-centered rhetoric, and recent bizarre moments—most notably the President’s infamous “threesome” comment. The episode is rich with analysis, sharp insights, and signature Bulwark skepticism about both Trump’s motivations and the enabling behavior of mainstream Republicans.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Tumultuous Economic Picture

[01:29 – 05:11]

• Disappointing Jobs Report: Tim Miller lays out the harsh reality of the June jobs report—nonfarm payrolls up just 57,000, half of expectations, and household employment actually dropping by 507,000.
  • Quote: “So 57,000 new jobs, that is not good. That is significantly slower than the 115,000 expectations that are being set... it’s like a ski slope going down.” – Tim Miller [02:19]
• Inflation Outpaces Wages: Inflation is up about 4% over Trump’s new term, wage growth only 3.5%—so real wages are falling.
  • Quote: “Even if you have got a raise of 3%, that’s entirely gotten eaten up by the inflation.” – Tim Miller [03:22]
• GOP Lacks an Economic Plan: The only substantial effort is a “housing bill” that Trump hasn’t signed; otherwise, “they’re not even pretending like they have a plan for boosting the economy.”
  • Quote: “There’s no plan for Congress to do anything to help people struggling in the Trump economy.” – Tim Miller [04:40]

2. The Great American State Fair & The July 4th Trump Speech

[06:24 – 09:33]

• Trump’s July 4th Plans: Trump announces plans for a marathon speech during extreme heat, reminiscent to Katie of President Harrison's ill-fated inaugural address.
  • Quote: “On July 4th, it’s going to be approximately 107 degrees out. And I’m going to go and I’m going to make a really long speech just to show that I can do anything.” – Trump, played by Vaughn Hilliard [06:32]
• Shift from Unifying Event to Trump Rally: What was meant as a broad national celebration has become a partisan spectacle.
  • Quote: “He changed it from that to being a Trump rally. It’s going to be really hot, it’s going to be really late at night. He says it’s going to be long. That’s his pitch. I think it’s going to be pretty empty.” – Tim Miller [07:32]
• Washington’s Current State: The capital is underwhelmingly prepared for the 250th, with fencing, National Guard presence, and numerous construction sites.
  • Quote: “It doesn’t feel like a place that is readying itself for a big celebration of our 250th birthday.” – Katie Turr [08:35]

3. Everything Becomes About Trump

[09:33 – 11:06]

• Lack of Unity: Miller laments that what should have been a national moment is transformed by Trump’s need for self-glorification and animosity toward critics.
  • Quote: “Everything is about Donald Trump himself. Everything is about tearing down people that don’t want to honor him and like him.” – Tim Miller [09:33]

4. The Notorious “Threesome” Moment

[12:00 – 15:08]

• Context & Quotes: Trump refers to giving medals to himself and his sons, joking about a “threesome”—which deeply confuses the panel.
  • Quote: “As I see my two beautiful sons sitting there, I think I’m going to give one to myself, one to them, and we’ll have a threesome. Okay.” – Trump (clip played by Vaughn Hilliard) [12:00]
  • Quote: “That’s the first time I’ve heard him talk about threesomes.” – Katie Turr [12:57]
• Panel’s Reaction: Tim jokes about being “stereotyped” into answering, and all express a mix of fatigue, disbelief, and discomfort.
  • Quote: “He only has like 70 words now that he just rotates through. And I don’t know who knew that ‘threesome’ was one of them.” – Tim Miller [12:38 / 13:01]
  • Quote: “I’m so sick of Trump. It’s like hard to even talk about him… why do we all have to pretend like we’re in the movie Memento and yet we can’t remember yesterday when we give a quote about what Donald Trump might do?” – Tim Miller [13:08]

5. Reflection on Trump’s Self-Obsession and the GOP’s Enabling

[13:07 – 14:24]

• Republican Wishful Thinking: The tendency of some GOP members to still hope Trump will be unifying is called “Memento” style self-delusion by Miller.
  • Quote: “Donald Trump is going to talk about himself…he doesn’t care about the founding documents of America. He’s gonna be Donald Trump and talk about himself. Cuz he thinks that America’s about him.” – Tim Miller [13:08]
• Trump’s Use of Violent and Divisive Tales: Katie points out how Trump gravitates toward violent or vitriolic historical anecdotes, rather than stories that inspire or unite.
  • Quote: “You rarely hear him tell a story about anything that is unifying or inspiring or good about this country.” – Katie Turr [14:24]

6. Is Trump Playing to Lose, Or Just Disinterested?

[15:23 – 17:40]

• Tim’s Theory Articulated: Trump simply does not care about the midterms and is not trying to help his party—his focus is elsewhere.
  • Quote: “I think the reality is that Donald Trump does not care about what happens in the midterms that much one way or the other…I think that he’s focused on enriching himself.” – Tim Miller [16:09]
• Potential Risks: Tim notes Trump might care somewhat about investigations if Democrats win, but “he walks around talking about how he’s immune all the time”—suggesting he feels untouchable.
• Unprecedented Apathy: Miller stresses how this level of indifference from a sitting president toward congressional elections is not normal or in the country’s interest.

7. What Does Trump Actually Care About?

[17:40 – 18:24]

• Legacy & Self-Enrichment: Trump compares himself with historical strongmen, wants to “put his name on stuff,” focus on generational wealth, and personal projects in office.
  • Quote: “He puts his name on stuff, think he wants to put his name on stuff and make generational wealth for his family and that’s what he’s been doing.” – Tim Miller [17:44]

---

Notable Quotes & Moments

• [02:19] “So 57,000 new jobs, that is not good. That is significantly slower than the 115,000 expectations that are being set...” – Tim Miller
• [03:22] “Even if you have got a raise of 3%, that’s entirely gotten eaten up by the inflation.” – Tim Miller
• [06:32] “On July 4th, it’s going to be approximately 107 degrees out. And I’m going to go and I’m going to make a really long speech just to show that I can do anything.” – Donald Trump (via Vaughn Hilliard)
• [07:32] “He changed it from that to being a Trump rally. It’s going to be really hot, it’s going to be really late at night. He says it’s going to be long. That’s his pitch. I think it’s going to be pretty empty.” – Tim Miller
• [12:00] “As I see my two beautiful sons sitting there, I think I’m going to give one to myself, one to them, and we’ll have a threesome. Okay.” – Donald Trump (via Vaughn Hilliard)
• [13:08] “I’m so sick of Trump. It’s like hard to even talk about him, but it makes—can I be mad at Brian Fitzpatrick and Don Bacon?...why do we all have to pretend like we’re in the movie Memento and yet we can’t remember yesterday when we give a quote about what Donald Trump might do?” – Tim Miller
• [16:09] “I think the reality is that Donald Trump does not care about what happens in the midterms that much one way or the other. I think that he’s focused on enriching himself.” – Tim Miller

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:29–05:11] Economic woes and jobs report summary
• [06:24–09:33] Trump’s July 4th speech and DC’s atmosphere
• [12:00–13:01] Trump’s “threesome” comment and panel reaction
• [13:07–14:24] Critique of GOP denial and Trump’s divisive style
• [16:09–18:24] Tim’s theory: Trump’s indifference to midterms and focus on legacy

---

Tone & Overall Take

The panel’s tone is a weary blend of dark humor, exasperation, and measured alarm. Miller is biting but fact-driven, Turr offers sharp historical context and biting skepticism, while Hilliard adds color and incredulity at the day’s Trumpian absurdities. The episode pulls no punches in critiquing the president’s self-focus and the strange, enablist world surrounding him—while underscoring real-world harm, from economic stagnation to the corrosion of national moments meant to unite.

For listeners, this episode is both a diagnosis of Trump’s motivations (or lack thereof) and a meditation on how the focus on self and spectacle has overtaken Republican politics, to the detriment of the economy, the party, and the nation’s civic culture.

---

Transcript

[Bluff]

What's going on everyone? It's bluff here and we're driving through the states in the Bluff Mobile and the best thing that we can do is play our favorite casino style games on Spin Quest. They have over a thousand games including live dealer, blackjack and craps. With tons of slots and unlimited options, you can get a 30 coin pack for just $10. For new users. Sign up today. Go to spinquest.com right now Spinquest is

[Tim Miller]

a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.

[ZipRecruiter Announcer]

Finding great candidates to hire can be like, well, trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure, you can post your job to some job board, but then all you can do is hope the right person comes along. Which is why you should try ZipRecruiter for free at ZipRecruiter.com Zip ZipRecruiter doesn't depend on candidates finding you, it finds them for you. Its powerful technology identifies people with the right experience and actively invites them to apply to your job. You get qualified candidates fast. So while other companies might deliver a lot of hay, ZipRecruiter finds you what you're looking for. The needle in the Haystack.

[Tim Miller]

See why 4 out of 5 employers who post a job on ZipRecruiter get a quality candidate within the first day.

[ZipRecruiter Announcer]

ZipRecruiter the smartest way to hire.

[Tim Miller]

And right now you can try ZipRecruiter for free.

[ZipRecruiter Announcer]

That's right, free at ZipRecruiter.com Zip. That's ZipRecruiter.com Zip ZipRecruiter.com Zip hey everybody,

[Tim Miller]

Tim Moore from the Bork I just got off the moment with Katie Turr and my buddy Vaughn Hilliard and a cast of characters, and we're discussing the Great American State Fair, how much of a disaster it is. We previewed Donald Trump's speech on Saturday night, which is going to be, I think, such a train wreck that I might even turn it on for one second. Probably not. I might wait till Sunday morning, but I'll at least be curious to see how big of a disaster it is. Maybe I'll just take a social media peek. And Katie also made me talk about Donald Trump's threesome comments. And so you'll have to stick around for that. But in addition to that, the final segment we got into the jobs report. I didn't have a chance to talk about that on the Pod with Susan Glasser today, so I just wanted to run that down with you guys because the economic picture is looking increasingly shaky. The non farm payrolls, the jobs in June increased by 57,000. So 57,000 new jobs, that is not good. That is significantly slower than the 115,000 expectations that are being set. If we pull up this chart here, courtesy of our friends at CNBC, you know, this goes back to 2022 and, you know, basically it's like a ski slope going down. Looks like there's a little bit of a boost in the last month of Joe Biden, whatever that's worth. And then there have been very few, even passably good months of job growth during the Trump administration. Maybe the exception of March, April, May were okay. And now in June, we're back down to essentially nada, essentially a flat economy kind of worse than that number, even as the household employment plummeted. Total number of people at work down 507,000 in June. So that is not good. And then on ms, as Justin Wolfers pointed out, now if you look at the inflation number and kind of compare it to the wage growth number, what you're seeing is inflation is now outpacing wage growth. Like, we're basically up about 4% inflation wise during the Trump tenure and wage growth up 3.5%. So inflation passing wage growth means even if you have got a raise of 3%, that's entirely gotten eaten up by the inflation. So these numbers are ugly. It is not the catastrophe that Trump was barreling into with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Like, that has been slightly staved off. But the noteworthy thing is, like, he doesn't really have a plan for recovering it. And this is what I get into with Katie Ter. She was asking, like, why, why does it seem like he doesn't care? I offer some theories about that, but I just, regardless of what the reason is, just the stated facts is the Republicans don't have a plan. They're not even pretending like they have a plan for boosting the economy later this year. The only thing that they did is this housing bill that Trump's sitting on. You would think, even if they didn't really have a plan, that they would at least pretend like they do, but they don't. There's no plan for Congress to do anything to help people struggling in the Trump economy. So we'll be interesting to see how that shakes out through the summer. And then as we get into the fall, ahead of the midterms, whether that Trump approval number can get down from the Bush line down towards the tricky deck line. We'll see if that can Happen. Fingers crossed. And not fingers crossed for the economy going bad, but fingers crossed that increasingly the scales fall from people's eyes as they realize Donald Trump is becoming a multi billionaire while their little pay increase isn't even keeping up with inflation. So that's where we're at. Stick around. Threesome talk. And what more do you want than that? And subscribe to the feed right here at the Bulwark. Appreciate you.

[New York Times Sponsor Announcer]

This segment is brought to you by the New York Times. Yes, the New York Times sponsoring us couldn't be more proud. I've been a fan of the paper ever since I was a kid. Now, you all know Bulwark Takes. We center our work on sharp analysis and commentary. But we can't really give our takes without fact based reporting. As we covered on this channel. For instance, the Trump family is making billions of dollars since the President returned to office. Well, look, just this week the Times had an incredible story on this. It came from Ben Protests, Andrew Fowler, Eric Lipton and many others. They looked at the financials and they discovered that about $1.4 billion of the family's cryptocurrency business had been made just since Trump 2.0 came into effect. They were able to tell the story because the Times has journalists that know where to look, have the expertise in the documents, and they are committed to reporting out those details and they do it factually and fairly. Those are just a few examples of the results of fact based reporting that Times has come to personify. They allow you to decide what to think. Without fact based reporting like this, the rest of us are just kind of guessing. So wherever you seek it out, nationally or locally, support fact based reporting.

[Katie Turr]

Let's play Donald Trump talking about how he's going to battle the heat. This is him from yesterday.

[Vaughn Hilliard]

On July 4th, it's going to be approximately 107 degrees out. And I'm going to go and I'm going to make a really long speech just to show that I can do anything.

[Katie Turr]

Tim, when he said that, I immediately thought of the drunk history of William Henry Harrison. The story, I mean, that TV show was really funny. But just the story of what happened to him. When he gave his inaugural speech, he wanted to prove that he was still tough. He was 68 years old. He was old for the time at least. And he didn't wear a coat. And it was very cold, snowy and Rainy. And about 30 days later, he succumbed to illness and died. One of the shortest presidencies that we've ever had in this country or the shortest Presidency. It does. Just like there's all the times where Donald Trump is just fighting against an uncomfortable parallel in history. And here's another one.

[Tim Miller]

Well, this presidency has been a lot longer than that one, and it feels even longer. Here we are talking about it. He's talking like 9:50 at night. So it's actually at the peak of the day in the heat. We'll see. I think the bigger question is, who wants to go hear a really long Trump speech on the Fourth of July night at America? 250. I mean, even some of the biggest Trump fans, you would wonder, wouldn't many of them rather just watch it on their big screen and go out and set off sparklers and hang out with their friends and air conditioning and, you know, it just seems extremely unappealing. This is what happens when you're a megalomaniac. He only thinks about himself. The original idea for this was that there's gonna be a lot of musicians and fanfare and it would be a moment to remember the history of the country. And you can understand why people might want to do that and, like, bring their kids to it and kind of experience it. He changed it from that to being a Trump rally. It's going to be really hot. It's going to be really late at night. He, he says it's going to be long. That's his pitch. I think it's going to be pretty empty.

[Katie Turr]

So much lying that's happening in the White House in Washington. From the White House right now. The reflecting pool is not green. It's been torn up by vandals. Everything is beautiful and it's wonderful. And Donald Trump is making the city great again. I mean, Matt Visor had a really great piece in the Atlantic today, Tim, about how there's fencing around everything. There's construction sites everywhere, there's the National Guard everywhere. It doesn't feel like a place that is readying itself for a big celebration of our 250th birthday. Donald Trump keeps trying to say that there was an emergency, he needed to get these projects done fast ahead of this birthday. But it's not like, you know, we woke up yesterday and said, oh my God, we're turning 250 tomorrow. This has been coming for a long time. And it's, it is, I think, disappointing and sad that this is what it looks like when we're celebrating this big holiday.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I think that's right. And I think that the disappointing part of this, and it's the side effect of the increased toxicity and Partisanship and the culture which is coming from Donald Trump, Trump top down, most notably. But it's across the culture. But it's like, this shouldn't have to be like this, right? It should not be Donald Trump giving a long Stemwinder campaign speech. We shouldn't have magnetometers and be blocking people from the reflecting pool. The whole purpose of this, when they started to think about it eight, 10 years ago, should have been how do we make this as much of a community celebration as possible for everybody to honor the country? I mean, frankly, I've been down to the mall. I'm sure some of you all have. On the Fourth of July, back when I was living in D.C. it was pretty great just as it was. I mean, you really could have added a few musicians and turned up the fireworks a notch, maybe not so high that we're threatening people's health. And I think everybody would have had a wonderful time and given a few speeches about the power of America and the promise of America and the principles that kind of brought us all together and made this country so special. And like, they're just not doing it. Everything is partisan. Everything is about Donald Trump himself. Everything is about tearing down people that don't want to honor him and like him. And I think it's natural, as Governor McCrory points out, that people look at this and are like this. Seems this does not sound unifying or fun at all. I'm going to go watch some soccer.

[Katie Turr]

Let's talk about what the Republicans or what some Republicans at least want Donald Trump to say in his speech tomorrow. Greg Murphy of North Carolina. Anytime we can do things that are more bipartisan, I think it's important. Brian Fitzpatrick, P.A. public inquiry into what happened to money Congress appropriated. I'm sorry, he's talking about that legal stuff that Lisa was just mentioning. Don Bacon says Hopefully Donald Trump's July 4th speech will be about America, not about him. That's not his propensity. So, you know, some hopes that he's going to make it about us and not about him. Maybe not high expectations on this. Vaughn, again, just staying on the subject of Donald Trump making everything about himself. He did it again yesterday in North Dakota, but it was weird. It was very strange. The words he chose. I'm just, instead of describing, I'm just going to play it

[Vaughn Hilliard]

now. As I see my two beautiful sons sitting there, I think I'm going to give one to myself, one to them, and we'll have a threesome. Okay. I'll pick out one of the two I'll give them the Congressional Medal of Honor for something, for their genius at hunting. And I'll get one for taking on Russia, Russia, Russia or something

[Katie Turr]

with the top part of it. He mentioned he's going to give one or both of his kids, I guess, one Medal of Honor, Congressional Medal of Freedom. He's given one to himself. Tim, Tim. Somebody needs to record him and play it back.

[Tim Miller]

I knew you were going to throw the threesome question to me, Katie, and I feel stereotyped, so I don't. He doesn't even know what he's talking about. He's gonna give himself a medal for going after Russia, Russia, Russia. He only has like 70 words now that he just rotates through. And I don't know who knew that

[Katie Turr]

threesome was one of them. That's the first time I've heard him talk about threesomes.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, it's a new one. He's added to the mix and I hope we retire it. Can I just really quick.

[Vaughn Hilliard]

Trump.

[Tim Miller]

I'm so sick of Trump. It's like hard to even talk about him, but it makes. Can I be mad at Brian Fitzpatrick and Don Bacon? I forget who the other quote was from Murphy. This is why I sometimes get more upset at kind of the regular Republicans that know better. It's like, why do we all have to pretend like we're in the movie Memento and yet we can't remember yesterday when we give a quote about what Donald Trump might do? I understand that they're trying to be responsible or whatever and try to say, hey, here's what I hope for, but we're in year 10 of this. Like, Donald Trump is going to talk about himself and Donald Trump is going to talk about how the media is the enemy of the people. And we know Vaughn knows the speech he's going to give, even if it's not the most divisive ever, even if he doesn't start making fun of women's faces or, you know, things he likes to do. It's still, it's going to be nasty and divisive. He hasn't read, you know, the Federalist Papers. He doesn't care about the founding documents of America. He's not going to do what Governor McCrory did and off the top of his head, make a reference about Jefferson's letter to Weightman and Jefferson and Adams dying. That's not what's gonna happen. He's gonna be Donald Trump and talk about himself. Cuz he thinks that America's about him. And it's frustrating to See, like, the people around him try to pretend like it might be something that it's not.

[Katie Turr]

Yeah. When he talks about our history, he often goes to the more violent allegories or tales about our history. I mean, he had one that he would say on the campaign trail, vaughn, you remember this, talking about General Patton dipping bullets in pig's blood and killing terrorists. And he tells those stories with such energy and joy. You rarely hear him tell a story about anything that is unifying or inspiring or good about this country. It's just all the ways in which we've been vile or violent or tougher than everybody else. And by the way, I think it's an apocryphal story. I'm not even entirely sure it's true. Governor, do you want to weigh in on the threesome comment? I want to make sure that I'm not stereotyping anybody.

[Tim Miller]

My wife's in the next room. I'm not sure I want to. I'm happy to be stereotyped. It's all right. It's fine. I just. I know what I'm here for, Katie. And, you know, you can just. I gotta earn my keep around here.

[Katie Turr]

You're the funniest one of all of us, Tim. Come on. Do you think, Tim, that. That there's just something we're missing here? Donald Trump appears to be trying to lose this. I mean, from the way he's. Where he's leading right now, what he's saying about the economy, what he's saying about people's finances, it's a big yawn. The. The housing bill, which, by the way, is still sitting on his desk, he hasn't signed, that would make housing cheaper for folks. He's talking about how everyone's for 1k has gone up and everyone's so happy. It's like he's really not trying at all. Should we take that to mean. I mean, does he know something we don't about the electorate? He has proven to win despite daunting circumstances. Is there something we're not expecting?

[Tim Miller]

I don't know. I hate to get inside Donald Trump's head. It's not a joyful place to be, but I'm going to try. And here's what I think is happening. I think that there's maybe a worse interpretation than this or a more alarmist interpretation of this we should be keeping an eye on. But I think the reality is that Donald Trump does not care about what happens in the midterms that much one way or the other. I think that he's pretty frustrated, frankly, with the Republican Senate as it is. I don't think he has any particular fondness for John Thune and most of the Republican senators. I think that he's focused on enriching himself. I think he's focused on the things he cares about, the new decorations in the White House and the Arch and things of that nature. And, and I don't, I don't think, I think that there's. He has some concern, I guess, about maybe being investigated or impeached if the Democrats take control again. But according to the hey Brun and Swan book, he walks around talking about how he's immune all the time. So I, you know, I don't know how much he's worried about that. And so I think that he's just that your interpretation is, is, is right. I don't know that he's trying to lose. I just don't think he cares that much about winning the midterms. You know, all things considered, if they could use the SAVE act or others to rig them or to do things to tilt the playing field that would help the Republicans, I think he'd be down for that. And I think he certainly will be happy to complain on social media and make up lies about how our elections are fake if he loses. But I just, I think that it's pretty low on his priority list, which is, you know, not typical of presidents.

[Katie Turr]

So, Tim, what do you think he does care about right now?

[Tim Miller]

I think he cares about legacy. If you go to the Swan book again and Haberman, he was comparing himself to Stalin and Napoleon and Hitler, which is kind of a strange list of people to compare yourself to. But I think that was what Venezuela was. I think that's what Iran was. I think Bibi told him that they built statues for him in the Middle East. So those are going to be easy. The Iran leadership is weak. They can overthrow them in two weeks like they did in Venezuela. I think that's what the Greenland is about. I think that's what the Arch is about. It's about. That's what he's done his whole life. He puts his name on stuff, think he wants to put his name on stuff and, and make generational wealth for his family and, and that's what he's been doing.

[Bluff]

You know what? It sucks to be bored. But when I get on my phone and play real casino games on spinquest.com the time flies by. That two hour wait at the DMV seems like 10 minutes. Play your favorite spots live. Blackjack, live craps with a live dealer. New players $30 coin packs are on sale for 10 bucks. Play spinquest.com and you'll never be bored again.

[Tim Miller]

Spinquest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.

[Chase Sapphire Announcer]

This year's girls trip to Telluride was the best. We one upped ourselves with my Sapphire Preferred card and with 5 times points on Chase Travel plus 3 times points on vacation homes with top brands. We got this in Incredible cabin. It was a mansion and with three times the points on dining. We ordered a Wagyu steak dinner and that pistachio gelato was too good. So where should we go next year?

[Katie Turr]

I've got ideas.

[Chase Sapphire Announcer]

Chase Sapphire preferred the card that's preferred for a reason. Cards issued by Morgan Chase bank and a member FDIC subject to credit approval terms apply.