Tom Nichols: There Are 500 Ways This War Goes Wrong

Summary

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Bulwark Takes: "Tom Nichols: There Are 500 Ways This War Goes Wrong"

Host: Mona Charen

Guest: Tom Nichols

Date: March 3, 2026

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Episode Overview

On this urgent special edition of the Mona Charen Show (presented within Bulwark Takes), Mona is joined by Tom Nichols, former Naval War College professor and Atlantic contributor, to break down the U.S.-led war against Iran. They candidly explore the immense risks, possible outcomes, the administration’s lack of preparation, the historical record of “regime change” wars, and the constitutional and geopolitical challenges at stake. Nichols’ central warning: while some hope exists for a positive outcome, there are "500 ways this war goes wrong," and America is perilously unprepared for most of them.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Best Case – and Why It’s Improbable

[01:00 – 05:00]

• Nichols: “The President is trying to draw to an inside straight … look, that can happen, but that’s not the way to bet.”
• The best case (the regime falls, replaced by something better) is possible but highly unlikely.
• Genuine regime collapse would require armed security forces to defect en masse to an organized opposition—a dynamic absent in Iran today.
• Nichols and Mona agree that simple bombing, no matter how targeted, doesn’t create a power structure for opposition groups.

2. Lessons from Previous Regime Change Efforts

[06:00 – 15:00]

• Libya Comparison: Obama’s strategy involved no boots on the ground, hoping rebels would take advantage of the weakened regime. But Libya already had armed rebel groups, unlike Iran.
• Iraq (1991 & 2003): In both Gulf Wars, U.S. leadership called for locals to rise up—often with catastrophic consequences, e.g., “tens of thousands of people died” ([12:33], Nichols).
• Memorable Quote:
  “There are 500 ways to do this wrong and only two or three ways to do it right. … What I didn’t count on was that we were going to do all 500 ways first.” — Barbara Bodine, quoted by Nichols ([09:54])
• Kosovo as Anomaly: The successful NATO bombing was focused, specific, and immediately followed by a robust peacekeeping presence—nothing like the Iran scenario.

3. The Many Ways This Can Go Wrong

[10:25 – 16:42]

• Country could fracture into mini-dictatorships or juntas.
• Replacement leadership might be “just as bad or worse.”
• Foreign powers, especially China, could seize the post-war vacuum.
• The administration hasn’t built infrastructure for even a best-case transition.

4. The Fallacy of “No Rules of Engagement / No Nation-Building”

[15:49 – 19:43]

• Discussion of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s tough-guy rhetoric: “no stupid rules of engagement,” “no nation building quagmire.”
• Nichols (mocking Hegseth): “Yeah, sure, we’re going to send up a bunch of strike aircraft, say, all right boys, weapons, do whatever. … That’s not how any of this works.” ([17:33])
• Even purely air campaigns require rules for targeting and collateral damage.
• Real situations (Somalia’s child soldiers) demonstrate the moral and psychological toll of ill-conceived rules.

5. The Endurance of Repressive Regimes

[19:43 – 22:05]

• Iran’s rulers are skilled at absorbing pain: “This is a regime that just killed between 30 and 40,000 of its people simply for the crime of protesting in the streets.” — Charen ([19:43])
• The regime may survive punishment and only double down on nuclear ambitions to prevent future attacks.

6. Nuclear Weapons & the “Security Dilemma”

[21:42 – 24:39, 52:04–54:47]

• Destroying regime may push future Iranian leaders to seek nukes more aggressively.
• Nichols: “Hope’s not a strategy.” ([24:39])
• Even if nuclear sites are destroyed, regime survivors may look to North Korea as a model for deterrence.

7. The Value and Absence of Allies

[27:34 – 31:39]

• Israel is America’s sole ally in this conflict; most traditional partners are absent.
• Looks like the U.S. is “the junior partner” to Israel—a dangerous perception.
• Memories of Gulf War coalitions (40+ countries) contrast starkly with U.S. and Israel alone.
• Risk of China or other adversaries filling the void postwar.

8. Strategic, Legal, and Constitutional Perils

[33:09 – 39:24]

• Trump’s disregard for Congressional approval marks a dramatic break from all other modern presidents, even for limited interventions.
• Nichols: “He’s just giving the finger to his own constituency. His base is not behind him on this.” ([41:53])
• Congress must demand a reckoning: “You need to come to us as the representatives of the American people.” ([39:38])

9. Trump’s Management Style – Simple-Mindedness and Narcissism

[42:11 – 44:49]

• Trump’s guiding assumption: everything is easy unless you’re “stupid.”
• Repeatedly claims to invent concepts or policies already well-known (e.g., “I call them groceries”).
• Nichols: “It’s funny when you’re talking about groceries. It’s not funny when you’re talking about a major war in the Middle East.” ([44:39])

10. The Most Likely Outcome

[45:04 – 48:35]

• Charen: U.S. may end up supporting a “bad person” from the existing regime, rebranded but essentially the same, now rushing for nukes.
• Nichols: Unlikely Iran will go nuclear immediately; more probable is a tactical pause, but U.S. will have only stalled the program at great cost.

11. The American System at Risk

[55:19 – 57:37]

• The “mad, violent king” problem: America, designed to avoid kingly power, now finds itself under a president waging war by fiat.
• Risk of Trump using war powers domestically to stifle dissent: “Dissent will be considered unpatriotic and harming the troops.” — Charen ([57:43])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There are 500 ways to do this wrong and only two or three ways to do it right. … What I didn’t count on was that we were going to do all 500 ways first.” — Amb. Barbara Bodine, quoted by Nichols ([09:54])
• “We’re going to just bomb the hell out of everything and then we’re going to see what happens.” — Nichols ([11:24])
• “If we win this war, it’s going to take a lot of people to help... There has been no depth of thinking about this.” — Nichols ([29:15])
• “The only way to prevent the Iranians from wanting a nuclear weapon is if there were a real change of government, a change of who runs the place, who has the power.” — Charen ([52:04])
• “Hope’s not a strategy.” — Nichols ([24:39])

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Important Timestamps

• 01:59 – 05:02: Setting the odds for best-case/worst-case war outcomes
• 09:45: Bodine’s “500 ways to do it wrong” Iraq quote
• 12:33 – 14:47: Iraq, Kosovo, and the history of “regime change” by bombing
• 17:07 – 19:43: Hegseth, rules of engagement, and how real officers think
• 21:42 – 22:05: Iran’s likely reaction—rush for nukes
• 27:49 – 31:39: Geopolitics of fighting with only Israel as an ally
• 33:09 – 39:15: Congress’ power and Trump’s indifference to legal/constitutional norms
• 44:39 – 44:49: The gravity of Trump’s simplistic approach in the context of major war
• 45:04 – 48:35: Predicting the most likely outcomes
• 52:04 – 54:47: The nuclear question and why airstrikes alone can’t prevent it
• 55:19 – 57:37: Erosion of constitutional checks; domestic risks of war powers

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Closing Thoughts

Tom Nichols and Mona Charen, with clarity, draw on decades of foreign policy experience to lay out the stunningly high risks and the frightening lack of planning or support for this war. Their warnings—on both practical and constitutional grounds—are conveyed with dry wit and deep concern. The episode is an indispensable guide for understanding not just the situation in Iran, but the broader crisis facing American governance and international standing as the nation stumbles into possibly its most consequential military adventure of the century.

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For listeners who missed the episode, this summary captures both the gravity and urgency of the conversation, and the indelible skepticism Nichols and Charen bring to the unfolding events.

Transcript

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[Mona Charen]

Welcome everyone to a special edition of the Mona Char Show. I am delighted because of the news events to welcome Tom Nichols, formerly of the Naval War College, currently an Atlantic contributor to discuss the war and the challenges we face. Tom, I must have devoured dozens of articles over the weekend and yours really stood out for the clarity of its thinking. So thank you for it and thank you, Mona. One of the things that struck me was that you were saying, and I think it should be said first off, that it could go well, right? I mean there is a chance that all the pieces will fall into place and that a vicious, horrible regime will be eliminated and that in its place we will get more democratic leaning or at least more.

[Tom Nichols]

Something better.

[Mona Charen]

Something better. And so that is one possible outcome. But as you pointed out in the piece that out, nobody seems to have weighed the chances of the less like the less desirable outcomes. So why don't you go through that if, for us, if you would. What are the things that are that you're worried about that can go wrong?

[Tom Nichols]

The matrix here or the, the axis is, you know, best case least probable to kind of worst case most probable. And I think the best case is improbable but possible the way. And I actually stole this from somebody else on the Internet, I said the President, being a recreational gambler myself, the President is trying to draw to an inside straight, you know, which look can happen. It happened. Poker players have, you know, you're sitting there and all you need is that nine of hearts and. And you know, by God, there it is and you get lucky. But but that's as people would, you know, as the saying goes, it can happen, but that's not the way to bet. So for all these things to go, right, I, I think the first thing that would be really necessary is that the military and security forces have to start defecting. And not just running away, but defecting two rebel groups if they can find them. See, that's part of the problem is there is no opposition.

[Mona Charen]

Yes, there's no opposition. I mean, that. So no organized opposition, of course. I mean, we saw hundreds of thousands of Iranians pour into the streets in January. It was sad but inspiring at the same time. You know, they desperately want to be rid of this horrible regime. But as you point out in your piece, I mean, and you know, so, so Trump is saying to them, listen here, here you go. I'm bombing your leaders, I'm bombing, you know, the missiles, et cetera. Although he's given conflicting war aims several times, even in the last 48 hours. But still, still he's saying, he did say in that eight minute talk, you know, so go ahead, seize power for yourselves, Iranians. This is, this is your opportunity. And so one thing that is really, you know, that jumps out is, of course, you can't just seize power from people with guns if you don't have guns. And so however much those hundreds and thousands or millions of Iranians may want to be rid of this regime and a bombing campaign that takes out buildings and missiles and whatever, and even can decapitate the regime, take out Khamenei and no tears for him, but still, that doesn't give to the people any opportunity to actually take power from the people with guns. Right?

[Tom Nichols]

No. And in a way, you know, as much as Donald Trump hated Barack Obama, it seems like he's adopted Obama's strategy in, in Libya, which is no boots on the. Although today he said, well, I won't say no boots on the ground. Of course, you never know with Trump.

[Mona Charen]

You never know.

[Tom Nichols]

You know, my, I always give props to my colleague David Graham, who is the first person to really note that in an article he wrote some time ago, he said, Donald Trump, remember that when you ask him a hypothetical, he never says no.

[Mona Charen]

Right, right.

[Tom Nichols]

Mr. President, are we going to colonize the moons of Jupiter? Well, we're looking at it, you know, very strongly, very strongly we're looking at it. So it's his way of saying, I don't know how to answer the question and I, I don't want to talk about it. But he's basically saying what Obama Said we're gonna. We're gonna strip the regime of its security and military forces.

[Mona Charen]

Right?

[Tom Nichols]

We're gonna leave it kind of just naked and exposed to its enemies, and then they will carried forward and tear it apart. Okay. Libya is a country of seven and a half million people with a lot of forces spread out over a very, you know, a sizable amount of territory, but right next to a big ocean that we, you know, the Mediterranean that NATO kind of owns. But there were rebel groups on the ground with weapons headed for various government installations. And what we did was basically just clear their path. Nothing like that exists in Iran.

[Mona Charen]

Right.

[Tom Nichols]

So I don't know when the part that, you know, look, I think we all. Let me just stop for a moment and say, at this point, we're committed. Cars off the David from. And I were talking about this earlier today. Cars off the rail, the cars off the cliff. You have to hope for that, you know, our men and women stay safe, that they, you know, complete their objectives. But when Trump says, you must surrender, you lay down your weapons, surrender home.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah.

[Tom Nichols]

Who is he talking about? I mean, does he think Eisenhower is going to, like, go to the head of the irgc, the new head of the irgc, and say, you know, slap him with a glove and say, hand over your saber and your pistol? It doesn't. It doesn't make any sense. And so I don't know what he thinks he's doing. Well, it's about nuclear weapons. It's about missiles. It's about 40 years of being terrible to us and hurting American soldiers and terrorism. And those are all. Look, if you're going to argue that Iran should be right at the top of the list, you know, in the. In the axis of evil of regimes to be overthrown, that's an easy case to make. Yeah, but how are you actually doing this with what this is right now? And I don't think any. I don't think anybody in this administration can answer that question. So to go back to how it goes right and how it goes wrong, okay, so somehow these guys find somebody to surrender to, or they say this army detachment or this security force. We are now the government. The mullahs don't tell us what to do. And not just acting on their own, by the way, there was a news report yesterday that said, well, that the military is coming apart. And the Iranian government said some military units are isolated. That's a very different matter. When military units are saying, we no longer support the Islamic Republic, you know, we are now the, you know, fifth People's revolutionary anti. Whatever. That's a different matter. But let's say that happens then. Yeah. At some point that government or pieces of it reach out and the Americans say, fine, we're gonna. We're gonna take the foot off the.

[Mona Charen]

Our boot.

[Tom Nichols]

Off your throat. You're going to agree to the following things, including no more mass repression. We're not. We know you're not going to be a Jeffersonian democracy overnight, but we're watching you. Don't make us come back here. Okay, Maybe that could work. I don't think they've put any infrastructure into place to do it. That takes a long time. And I'll just remind people of something I said in the piece. Somebody I quoted in the piece. Ambassador Barbara Bodine was one of our first. It's such a great quote, isn't it?

[Mona Charen]

It's a great quote. That's what I was looking for right before we started. Yeah, that's a great quote.

[Tom Nichols]

Where she says they're embarking on reconstruction. And she gave an interview later that used to joke with each other that, look, there are.

[Mona Charen]

This is about Iraq.

[Tom Nichols]

About Iraq, yes. And she was the ambassador to Iraq, and she said, look, there's 500 ways to do this wrong and only two or three ways to do it right. And what I didn't count on was that we were going to do all 500 ways first, you know, and that was with, I think, a considerably more competent administration. And, I mean, I think Donald Rumsfeld is one of the worst secretaries of defense in history. I miss him right now.

[Mona Charen]

No. You know, my God. Yeah, we should get to what Hegseth said this morning. But, but, but, but before, in the way.

[Tom Nichols]

I'm certain the way it goes bad. You asked, Mona, is there's a. There's a whole bunch of ways it goes bad. The country fractures. You get little mini dictatorships or little military juntas all over the country being set up. The people who take over and keep the government together in Tehran are worse or just as bad as Khamenei. You know, you have foreign powers in this, and this turns into a major regional war in every direction. There are. There are 500 ways to do it wrong. And I don't think they've thought any of that through. So.

[Mona Charen]

Right. So, yeah, I mean, undertaking a war like this requires tremendous planning, good judgment, sober consideration of all the things that can possibly go wrong, all the things that this administration said signally lacks to. To put it as mildly as possible,

[Tom Nichols]

judiciousness, intellectual agility, the ability to know when things are going wrong or when they're going right. This is now. This is just. We're going to just bomb the hell out of everything and then we're going to see what happens.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah, I mean, that's. So let's talk about that. The history of trying to change regimes by bombing is one we ought to be familiar with. Anybody who's lived through the latter parts of the 20th and into the 21st century knows that we've done this a few times and the results have not been great. So after the first Gulf War, I think you mentioned this in your piece, George H.W. bush, having chased Saddam out of Kuwait, then sort of announces to the Iraqis, go for it, guys. You know, overthrow him. He's terrible. And you know, some of the groups in Iraq attempted to do that and that went badly. Crushed them. Crushed them. And you know, tens of thousands of people died.

[Tom Nichols]

So damn near had genocide on our hands.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah.

[Tom Nichols]

With the Kurds and the Marsh Arabs. I mean, that was.

[Mona Charen]

Yes, yes. It was ugly. Horrible. Okay, now, one instance where you could say, okay, it worked was in Kosovo under the Clinton administration. So, you know, the Serbs were committing ethnic cleansing against the Albanians. We, you know, intervened with NATO to bomb the Serbs and make them stop. They did. But it wasn't just a bombing campaign. We then sent in a NATO led peacekeeping force. It's still there as far as I know.

[Tom Nichols]

So K4, or as they call it, on the ground forever for.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah. And Kosovo is a tiny little country

[Tom Nichols]

and we didn't go directly. You know, it's interesting, you bring up Kosovo, which an example I didn't use, because it's, it's kind of a weird outlier. The goal in the Kosovo war was to head off. It was a very specific goal of heading off a genocide. Yeah, right. We. This was after Rwanda, you know, after the horrors and Sherebrenica places. Like we said, okay, that, that in that the west led by Clinton, you know, one of the few things that you gotta give him some credit for in his foreign policy, said, we're not gonna wait one more time. This time we're gonna act ahead of time. Because we had plenty of warning that the Serbs were going to be up to no good in Kosovo. So we said, take. The demand was take your forces out of Kosovo. Get out and leave this area, even though you claim it as your own. It was not a demand of all of you must lay down your arms, you know, across Serbia. What we did was we bombed buildings that we. That were war supporting and Government supporting buildings. But we then kind of stepped back and it, that didn't happen overnight. Eventually the Serbian people were tired of Milosevic. They handed him over to us. I mean, we didn't actually kill him. He died in prison.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah, yeah.

[Tom Nichols]

Just a different thing here. It's, it's a, you know, I think Trump, Trump is, you know, like that. I can't think of that character in David Copperfield. He says something will turn up something,

[Mona Charen]

you know, and because I never actually

[Tom Nichols]

read it, they can't.

[Mona Charen]

He can't.

[Tom Nichols]

They can't. They didn't want it. You know, one of the Rumsfeld's biggest mistake, one of many mistakes, but one of his biggest was that he wouldn't allow people to talk about what do we do when this war in Iraq is over? He's like, that's not our problem. We go in, we win. We, you know, mission accomplished. We prove what a small transformed force can do. Compared to Hagseth, Rumsfeld was Churchill. I mean, yeah, you know, these guys have not thought about anything beyond this. And apparently they don't any talk about what do we do. They think there, this is the point I'm trying to make. They think that they're avoiding Rumsfeld's mistake. They're saying, we won't get in and do nation building. That was the mistake. We'll just leave it all there for other people. Well, that is not a great. Because somebody's going to have to do it.

[Mona Charen]

And Hexeth in a press conference on Monday morning seem to say that the reason this is not going to be a repeat of Iraq is because we were too nice in the past. And no more Mr. Nice Guy. He said, max, let's see, no stupid rules of engagement. No nation building quagmire, no democracy building exercise, no politically correct wars. We fight to win and we don't waste time or lies about blah, blah, blah. Now, you know, that sounds like Biff, you know, from Back to the Future. You know, just the bully boy trying to look and sound tough. He's such an unserious figure. He's like a cartoon version of a bad secretary. I don't know, what do you think

[Tom Nichols]

this tells you that he probably, I mean, from everything we've seen over the past three days, he probably was sidelined in most of this. Which, you know, on the one hand you say, yeah, the grown up Dan Cain and you know, other people, Rubio, a lot of other grownups were probably running this. But he's the secretary of defense. He's supposed to be one of the President's chief advisors, and instead what he is is one of the President's chief cheerleaders.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah.

[Tom Nichols]

And he goes, no stupid rules of engagement. Well, that. You know.

[Mona Charen]

And by the way, why is that even relevant if they're only bombing from the air? I mean, you know, rules of engagement are much more about, like, hand to hand or. Or on the ground combat. Do you fire? Do you not fire? I mean, they even apply.

[Tom Nichols]

They can even apply to targeting and other.

[Mona Charen]

But, yeah, targeting. Right. So we should target more like women and children, orphanages or something. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Tom Nichols]

You know, and it's also just a stupid comment because the military never operates without rules of engagement. That. This is just Hegseth.

[Mona Charen]

It's ridiculous.

[Tom Nichols]

You know, like, yeah, sure, we're going to send up a bunch of strike aircraft, say, all right, boys, weapons, do whatever. Knock yourselves out, fellas. That's not. That's not how any of this works. And. And it shows you over and over again that Pete Hegseth still has the mentality, you know, of a company commander of, like a first lieutenant or a captain, you know, who's. Who's in. In charge of a platoon or a company, saying, all right, you know, we're going to get off there and we're gonna. And yet, even on the ground, if you really want to think about problems of rules of engagement in situations like this, if we send in ground forces, which president has ruled out, you're still going to have to know, do we shoot at civilians? Do we shoot at children? I mean, in Somalia, the enemy in Somalia, warlords purposely armed children to create a rules of engagement conflict that shattered some of our people over there. There were. There were people who opened up because they had to. It was kill or be killed. I mean, in one. There's a documentary some years ago about some of the people who fought in Mokadishu and they had to open up on kids with a.50 caliber, basically, that just turns children to, you know, anybody into. Just disintegrates them. But it was either that or be shot. It was to save their own lives. And these. Some of these guys came home with real problems and real moral injury. Moral injury from it. Someone Hexx says there'll be no rules of engagement. That's easy for you to say sitting in the Pentagon.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah. Every.

[Tom Nichols]

Everybody in combat, all these. I mean, I taught these. You know, I've never served in combat. I taught hundreds of military officers the idea of saying to them, you have no rules of engagement. 99.99% of those officers would say, well, then you better think some up because I have to give orders down the line to people who have to give orders to people, have to pull triggers and no, rules of engagement is not a thing.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah. Let me ask you about something else that is worrying and I'd love to hear what you think about this because there doesn't seem to be a clear plan for what to do when the bombing is over. Or so as you said in the piece. I think at one point repressive regimes are very good at enduring pain because they're not the ones, the leaders aren't the ones who are suffering. They inflict it on their people. This is a regime that just killed between 30 and 40,000 of its people simply for the crime of protesting in the streets. They're not loath to inflict pain on their own people. So they could endure a huge amount of suffering and bombing and destruction and, and hang on to power. And this administration keeps saying, and if they're not going to put boots on the ground and therefore effect true regime change by being there, then one of the goals that this administration has outlined again and again and again, which is preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon is not guaranteed at all. Because if they absorb this punishment and manage to hold on to power, and Trump say, gets tired of it after a while, he likes these quick and sharp military actions that are easy and don't involve long commitments. He might get tired of it and say, okay, mission accomplished, it's done, we've achieved everything. And then what's left on the ground is a regime that's still in power and that learns the lesson. Oh, North Korea didn't get, you know, this kind of punishment. They've got a bomb. So we have to rush even more single mindedly toward getting a nuclear weapon so that this can never happen to us again.

[Tom Nichols]

Or at the very least. Yeah, I mean, they'll look at, they're going to look at two examples around them, Libya and North Korea and say, you know, Libya, you probably should have killed a lot more people a lot faster before the allies came in. Remember, the reason we went in was Gaddafi was basically threatening to kill everybody in Tripoli. Yeah, I'm sorry, in Benghazi.

[Mona Charen]

Benghazi.

[Tom Nichols]

And he was going to say, we're going to pull you out of your closets, we're going to shoot you in the street. Well, you know, they basically he was, because Gaddafi wasn't the brightest guy in the world, gave us this big advance notice of genocidal intent. And so we had to, you know, go in. But the North Koreans, when. When Libya was ripped to pieces, the North Koreans said, see, we're not that guy. That's why we did what we did. And I think that's not a reason not to take down the government in Iran, but it's a reason to be there and do this as a major project rather than trying to do it as like a Venezuela, only bigger. And this is the part that really worries me. He really thinks that, you know, this will be Venezuela times 90 million people, and it's not that. Now, again, could it all fall into place? Sure. But, you know, they're not. They. They've killed the top 40 leaders in Iran. There isn't some Darcy Rodriguez waiting now, you know, in the wings to say, okay, you can go home now. I'll take care of this. They're still fighting wars only been going on for two and a half days. So I don't. I think the president needs to tell the American people, because we're in it now. He needs to tell the American people and the Congress of the United States. Here are the things that I consider to be essential for success. He can't just say, we're going to keep doing this until some people show up and take over the government. That's. That's not really. First of all, that's not really a. I know Pete Hegseth will say this is very woke. But killing people until you get to somebody, until basically you can get to somebody that makes you say, please stop killing people. It's not a particularly moral approach to war. It's not who we are. It's not how we do it. It's not how we did it. I mean, even In World War II, we said unconditional surrender. And at the end, when the Japanese said one condition, the Emperor, we said, okay, you know, because two nuclear bombs later, we said, we still gave them. We said, all right, you can keep. Keep the emperor. And, you know, the answer in. In places like Germany and Japan was we're gonna. Now we're gonna show up and we're gonna administer these countries and bring some peace and security here. Simply saying we're just gonna create a wasteland, and then people figure it out, is not a plan. Hope is not. Again, I keep thinking we. Now that we're in it, we hope it goes well. Hope's not a strategy.

[Mona Charen]

Well, it's March, but it's still really cold, at least around here. Here. But I am not that upset about the cold because I Have to admit I bought quite a few of the Quint cashmere sweaters this year. Sh. I did really indulge because they are so nice, they're so soft and they're easy to take care of. You know you can wash cashmere. I did not know that. I used to take all my cashmere sweaters to, to the dry cleaner. And when I got my first quince sweater, it came with little instructions, little card about how to take care of your sweater. And it mentioned you can hand wash it and then just put it on a sweater dryer and it comes out just fine. And it's actually better for you and the environment not to dry clean things so much. They smell much better when you hand wash them. And the quick quince sweaters are very well made. So they can take it. I mean, you know, they, they get washed and dried and then air dried. Don't put them in the dryer. But, but they, they look just like new every time. I mean it doesn't, they don't seem to mind this, this kind of treatment. So I'm not upset about the cold. I've got my warm cashmere sweaters from Quince. Quince works directly with safe ethical factories and cuts out the middleman. So you're not paying for brand markup or fancy retail stores. They use 100% European linen for their linen clothing. And their cotton poplin is crisp and holds its shape. The gauze is soft without being flimsy. Everything Quince makes is built to hold up season after season. The stitching, the fit, the fabrics. These are the pieces that you will reach for over and over. Right now, go to quince.commona for free shipping and 365 day returns. That's a full year to wear it and love it. And you will now available in Canada too. Don't keep settling for clothes that don't last. Go to Quince.com Mona for free shipping and 365 day returns. That's Q-U-I-N-C-E.com Mona and by the way, even though I've gone on and on about their sweaters, they also have lots of other pieces that you will enjoy. They have jackets, they have pants, they have all kinds of lovely things. So give it a look. Okay, let's spend a few minutes on the lack of alliances here, the lack of allies. We have one ally in this war and that's Israel. And you know, it's hard to think of another undertaking the US has done that didn't involve allies. Can you talk a little bit about what that means for us geopolitically.

[Tom Nichols]

Well, first of all, the charge that the Americans are just the, you know, the, the sort of equal or maybe junior partners of the Israelis, you know, that charge that's always thrown at us around the world, you know, is looking pretty good right now because, you know, the Israelis went in twice. Now we've attacked Iran with the Israelis going in and then saying, the water's fine, come on in. And that, I mean, that's one of the things I object to. If we're going to go to war, we go to war for our reasons. We go not Bibi Netanyahu's reasons. You know, Netanyahu wanted a war of regime change last year, 20 years ago. Oh, I mean, really every in fair. I'm going to try to be fair in Netanyahu and say we all wanted a war of regime change. We just weren't willing to embark on it given the amount of risk and blood that it would involve.

[Mona Charen]

Correct. Let's put it this way. We all wanted regime change. Whether we were willing to do it militarily was another matter.

[Tom Nichols]

Was another matter discussed.

[Mona Charen]

You know, like, we should have been arming, you know, an opposition. We should have been. And certainly, you know, the other thing is this administration has cut off Voice of America and all those other.

[Tom Nichols]

Wasn't that a brilliant decision? Let's cut off our Farsi service before we do this.

[Mona Charen]

Farsi service. Yeah. I mean, you know, so that possibly they could have coordinated, the opposition, could have a voice where they could coordinate. But no, we got rid of that.

[Tom Nichols]

It may be happening and we don't know it, but this is a time where the CIA, with you know, bringing in satellite phones and, you know, kind of things, kind of the mischief that we did back during the Cold War in Eastern Europe. Copy. Back in those days when sending copiers could be a really destructive thing to do. You know, fax machines, for those of you that are old enough to remember, you know, those things could really help. And here we've just said, rise up, take, take the guns from the cops. That. But the other, I think, really stunning part of this is what have we done to prepare our allies for what might come later? Like, if this war, if we win, win this war, it's going to take a lot of people to help because there are going to be a lot of other people that are willing to help, like, I don't know, say, China. You know, we. There was no, there's been no depth of thinking about this. And Having Israel as your sole ally,

[Mona Charen]

you know, what did you mean about China? I'm not sure I understood that.

[Tom Nichols]

If, you know, if Iran needs a new friend for reconstruction and it's not going to be us.

[Mona Charen]

Oh, oh, I see.

[Tom Nichols]

Do we want to.

[Mona Charen]

Okay.

[Tom Nichols]

You know, the Chinese are always willing to help and without any conditions about, about democracy and other, you know.

[Mona Charen]

Exactly. And plus they get, they get some of their, a big chunk apparently of their oil from Iran.

[Tom Nichols]

In terms of having Israel as your only ally, the Israel. The good part of that is the Israelis are amazingly military, militarily capable. The bad part is, you know, again, it looks like the United States and Israel basically dictating to the Middle east without the help of a lot of other people. I guess, you know, for those of us old enough to remember Gulf 1 especially, which was the entire world, I mean, even East Bloc nations. I mean, I think there was a Czechoslope back when there was a Czechoslovakia. I think there was a Czechoslovakian chemical defense battalion that was sent to just, you know, as a, not to fight, but in case something bad happened. I mean, it was all hands on deck. Second time around, 40 countries supported us. Four, but only four, but it was still four of us. Britain, United States, Poland and Australia, you know, sent troops. Sent troops and fought and, and fought well.

[Mona Charen]

But despite what Trump now says about them. Yeah, insulting them and saying they didn't fight with us. They've never fought. They, they hung back in their barracks while we did the fighting. What a jackass.

[Tom Nichols]

He's. Well, but he's a child. I mean, he's just a child. And that's, that's the kind of thing you say when you don't know anything and you, you, you know, you're, you're just trying to get that USA chant going. So, you know, the war, we can probably handle the war with just one ally. But diplomat, post war, that's a very tough situation to be in, especially when your one ally again is the one that, you know, causes, causes you the, the, the most angst about how that's perceived a difficult ally even under good circumstances. You know, BB Netanyahu, Netanyahu is not the easiest guy to talk to. I worry too that this combination of Trump and NETanyahu, these are two guys that just don't, they both have reasons, their own reasons for going to war for themselves. But also these are not guys that like to admit a mistake or, or change. You know, these are, these are double down kind of guys. And this is, you know, sometimes, you know, again, I'm. You can see my nostalgia for Bush 41 here. You know, sometimes you have to reassess, reevaluate, make sure that your military operations are staying on track with your strategic goals. And I, we. I don't know what our strategic goals are, so I don't know if we're on track or not.

[Mona Charen]

Right. I mean, that's. Nobody knows what our strategic goals are. And I feel like I'm not as old as Trump, but I about 10 years younger. And I lived through a lot of the things that were formative in his brain. So, like, people kept asking, like, where did this thing about people are sending us their mental patients? And, you know, all this, they kept saying Cuba. I knew where it came from. You know, it was from 1980. Marielle Botel. Right. Similarly, I think, you know, a lot of his MAGA people, his MAGA supporters, who are, you know, very down on these forever wars and so on. When Trump gets up there and starts reciting all of the insults and crimes of the Iranian regime, to them, that must seem like ancient history. But for Trump, and we know how his fragile ego is so much a part of his decision making. And I think he is still burning up about the hostage thing from 1979, you know, that he feels the insult, the indignity that Americans were held hostage. Something that, you know, was so long ago that most of the people who are voting now, I don't think you were even alive when, when these events took place. Now, it is true that Iran has committed terrible crimes against us and has targeted us, and they chant, death to America. And they've been a menace around the world, and they've certainly killed many, many, many of their own people and other people, and they have destabilized the Middle East. They are responsible for Hamas, you know. No. Iran funding Hamas? No. 10-2-7th. But for all that, that is the case, and for all that, lots of us have been hoping and praying and thinking that nothing better could happen in the Middle east than for this regime to fall to a better regime. This crowd does not seem to be the ones to do it. But you've said all that. I want to talk to you now about legalities. Other presidents have used the military without getting congressional approval, but they've usually sought some kind of authorization or they've had international allies. I mean, even Reagan, when he went into little Grenada, remember, he had a little coalition of the neighboring countries involved.

[Tom Nichols]

Didn't the Organization of American States ask us to go in?

[Mona Charen]

Yes, or something like that. And there was like the, the Prime Minister of Dominica or something. I remember her, you know, at the White House. She was great. She had a beautiful accent. Anyway, this president has been destroying the rule of law at home. And so it does seem, even though it is a bit dicey once you're in a war, once our troops are committed and are under fire, it's a little bit dicey to then to have the Congress say no, stop, or, or, you know, we need to authorize this or we're going to cut off funds for the war, which they of course have the constitutional authority to do. But so as a matter of legalities, they didn't observe any of them. What do you think the Congress should do now, now that the bullets are flying?

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[Tom Nichols]

Well, first, I think Trump did this specifically to show his contempt for the legal restrictions on the President's power to make war. And I'm conflicted about that because back in I've been working on a piece. Back in 1990, I was an advisor to a US senator who wanted to invoke a Republican who said, hey, if we invoke the War Powers act, doesn't that help Bush? It gives him cover. And Legi said, no, the War Powers Act's a terrible piece of legislation. Please don't do it. My little part of history. I may have averted a small Republican rebellion on the, on the War powers Act in 1990, but on the other hand, that doesn't mean that the President has is completely unlimited powers to go to war at will. You know that that is not, I think, getting some kind of fig leaf from the Congress, even if it's these, these janky AUMFs that I think are, you know, don't make much sense and give people the opportunity to say, like John Kerry did, to say, well, I was for it before, I was against it, kind of, you know, hair splitting. Nonetheless, you have to go to Congress and say, here is my goal. This is what I want tell, you know, and I want your approval as the representatives of the American people. Okay, that's, somebody's got to do that. And then that actually gives you a stronger hand overseas. That's why Bush did it in 2002. He turned to Iraq and said, no one's going to stop me here.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah. So that, that would have been the way to do it. He chose not to because, as you say, he has contempt for Congress and the law.

[Tom Nichols]

So, but, so what now?

[Mona Charen]

But does, yeah. Does Congress risk its image if, if it seems to be, I don't know, putting the brakes on the President when we are under fire?

[Tom Nichols]

Well, considering that most Americans are not in favor of this war, I would argue that it's Congress reflecting the will of the American people to at least slow things down and ask questions about this, to say, you need to come to us. And, you know, I'm sure that they, I haven't seen it, but I'm sure that the Bush, excuse me, the Trump administration filed the requisite 40 hour paperwork, right. Under the War Powers resolution, he has 48 hours to inform Congress and then they have to consult and do all the things they've got to do. But to say before we vote on continuing this war, you need to come to us as the representatives of the American people. And again, just tell us what you're doing. I mean, that's part of the, it's not just that. Bush, Bush, I've got, we've, I've got the old wars on my brain. It's not just that Trump went ahead and did this without Congress, it's that he refuses to explain what he's doing to Congress or to the American people. So, you know, Congress, he, it may well be that Congress would say, all right, if your goal is these three things, you know, nuclear weapons, missiles and a better regime, and you lay out a plan and you have Dan Cain and come in here and tell us how that works and all that we might actually approve of this. But instead their attitude is everyone who is not them. This is just one more piece of, excuse me, of how Trump makes policy. Everyone who is not them, Everyone who is not a MAGA loyalist inside the White House is the enemy. And the assumption is that they will, that whoever you are, no matter what it is, whether immigration, foreign policy, tariffs, whatever, you are the enemy and you will say no to us because you hate us so much. And that's, that's just not a, you can't run a war that way. I mean, a war has to be run with the support of the people. It's legislature, you know, coherence and unity in the executive. And this is basically Trump and a handful of guys saying we're going to go to war in Iran against one of the biggest wars we've ever gone into since, since the 20th century. And by the way, not only did he not consult Congress, he clearly is just giving the finger to his own constituency. His base is not behind him on this. So, you know, how does he sustain this without any of that support?

[Mona Charen]

You know, one of the things about him that we've seen consistently is his kind of simple minded belief that things are easy. It's easy. You just, you just apply force, you know, and if that doesn't work, apply more force. You know, he, he think he, he ran for President 2016, constantly claiming that the only reason we didn't have, you know, a great trade policy and a great immigration policy and a great economy was because people were too stupid to do what was so easy, you know, and he was not. He was the answer. I, I alone can fix it. And you know, when it comes to something like this, I'm afraid that he might think this is easy. We just, you know, bomb them from the air.

[Tom Nichols]

I think that's where he is now.

[Mona Charen]

Hi, Uncle.

[Tom Nichols]

Yeah, I think that's already his, you know, and it doesn't help that the fights he's picked before this were, you know, blowing up Venezuelan fishing boats, you know, a one and done over Iran, a one and done strike into Nigeria. So he's sitting there going, you know, hey, hey, oh, how hard can this be? You know? Well, pretty, pretty hard. And as you say, back in 2016, everything was easy. And then he gets into offices, you know, hey, who knew health care was so complicated? Well, yeah, everyone. Everybody, you know, except you. You know, the, one of the, one of the most maddening things about Trump, aside from all his vulgari crudeness and ignorance, is that, I mean, it's kind of funny, but it's just, it's also endlessly annoying. He thinks that if he hadn't thought of it or thought about it until that moment, no one had, right? With that little verbal tick of, you know, aerial bombing, I call it, you know, or health care. I call it. Oh, is that what you're.

[Mona Charen]

Groceries. I call them groceries.

[Tom Nichols]

I call them groceries, yes. Oh, that's interesting, Mr. President. You know, I don't know that anybody's ever used that word, but I'm glad you finally discovered it. And it's just so weird and it shows you what a, what a narcissistic bubble just wraps this guy's head, you know, grocery. I call them groceries. Because other people on the, because no one else, everyone else on this planet is like a cardboard cutout of a human being that doesn't actually have speech or thoughts. So, you know.

[Mona Charen]

Oh, gosh.

[Tom Nichols]

But I mean, that's funny when you're talking about groceries. It's not funny when you're talking about a major war in the Middle East.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah, we are at the mercy of a, of a, a man who has sort of the, the mentality of a 12 year old boy and the understanding of a, maybe 5 year old, you

[Tom Nichols]

know, certainly the impulse control of a small toddler, that's for sure.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah. And so that is why it is a really, really worrisome moment. What do you think is the. Well, it's so hard to say, but what do you think is the most likely outcome? I'll go first. I think the most likely outcome here, which is bad, is that Trump, wanting this to be over quickly so that he can declare victory, does find somebody in Iran that he can, you know, make a deal with. And this person who is a bad person, who is part of the existing power structure, makes promises that he doesn't mean in order to end the war and we get a continuation of the Islamic Republic under another name. But it's, but this time they are, they've learned their lesson and they are going to, you know, get it, get, get a bomb fast.

[Tom Nichols]

I agree with all of that, except the bomb part. You know, one of the things that's amazing about the, about Iranian diplomacy was how clever they were of having all the benefits of having a nuclear bomb without the risk of ever building one. That was a very clever game they played. They'd say, oh, we're not building a bomb. All the pieces are right here, and we certainly have enough uranium to do it, but we would never do it. But we could. And so don't, you know, so I think that, I think in this case, I mean, because remember, BB's been saying for 20 years, they're a week from a bomb. So I think they're gonna, I think if they're smart, whoever takes over now is remotely smart. That I think it's exactly as you say. They're going to say, yes, you win, we're not going to do any of this stuff. They won't do anything obvious with nuclear weapons because they're going to have to reconstruct a lot of stuff. I mean, that's just going to keep them busy. And at the very least, Trump will have taken the nuclear program and pushed it back at great cost, diplomatically and financially. The United States, he will have pushed that back, I don't know, however many years. Well, intelligence analysts will be arguing about that for a long time, about how close they were or not. But I completely share your first. Let me say that anybody who says they know what's going to happen next is making it up. I share your probabilistic judgment that Trump eventually gets tired of this. He's not getting a bump in the polls. That's really important. There's no rally around the flag here. You know, one of the dark side downsides, rather, of people having made up their minds about Donald Trump is that his polls tend to be immune to big events. Either way, when he screws up, he doesn't take a major hit. But when he tries to do something like this, he doesn't get a bump. And that's going to bother him. And I think you're right. I think after a while he's going to say, okay, fine, I found a guy. We made it the, you know, kind of that mafia where, you know, we, I met a guy, we, gifts were exchanged, promises were made, you know, we're going to move on. And that, and that keeps the, the country of Iran together along with something like this, functioning central government, which will then send messages out everywhere saying, no, the government still exists, country's still in one piece, don't get any funny ideas. That I think is the most likely thing.

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[Tom Nichols]

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[Tom Nichols]

Prohibited by law CTS and C's 21+ Sponsored by Chumba Casino it's also possible that something like a government remains in Tehran, but not in other parts. You know, I mean, what, what happens in Mashad or, or Shiraz or, you know, all so many other cities. It's a big country. So do you then get, you know, kind of. Yeah, Isfahan. I mean, what, you know, do you get internal conflict and civil conflict and internecine violence that then invites participation from other nations or us? You know, I don't think, I think Trump will lo than that because his attention span for these things is so small. And I think the more, the longer we're involved, the more people are going to that his polls will actually get worse and I think he'll leave the Iranian opposition hanging out to dry. I hope I'm wrong. This is where I have to say I and I'm not saying that just to be, you know, as a kind of a hand wave. I genuinely hope I'm wrong about this and I genuinely hope that of all the stupid things Donald Trump's ever done, that he can pull this off because. Because millions of lives are now riding on it. Whether we would have chosen it or not, we're in it. So if he can do this. Great. But I also think Congress. To go back to your earlier question, Mona, Congress now needs to be involved. And it can't just be a blank check to say, listen, just go do whatever you want. Iran, you know, it's. And don't, you know, here, here, have all the money you want. Go do whatever you want. And you know, best of luck. We hope it works out. Okay.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah, just one, one more little moment on the nuclear threat because you know, Trump says over and over and over again, you know, this, this horrible regime, terror sponsoring regime will never have a nuclear weapon. And that's his main goal. And, and it's a worthy goal. But in my opinion, the only way to prevent the Iranians from wanting a nuclear weapon is if there were a real change of government, a change of who runs the place, who has the power. And unless that's going to be small D Democrats, the evil regimes that prevail there are always going to want nuclear weapons. So, so I just don't think there's a way other than by a genuine democratic change to prevent them from getting a nuclear weapon by bombing them from the air.

[Tom Nichols]

Preventing them from getting a nuclear weapon is not only a worthy goal, it's one I would have supported military action for. If you had, if the president or anybody had put intelligence in front of the American people, said, listen, in the next 72 hours these guys are going to test the weapon, I think, and that can't happen. You know, back in around 2010, I want to say 2008 maybe, when the North Koreans were going to test a three stage missile, noted hawks like Ashton Carter, you know, who was not a hawk, these Democratic, you know, and Bill Perry came out and said, destroy it on the launch pad if you have to. Blow it up on the launch pad.

[Mona Charen]

So they can't.

[Tom Nichols]

Yeah, Remember they, and I was shocked. I was like, whoa, you know, these are, you know, these guys are old school Democrats. But their argument was this is one of the last chances to. They don't let them get the telemetry or the intelligence or the ability to build this thing. And if it means war, then it means war, but it probably won't. That if you just do this one thing, take out the. So I would have said, Great, 72 hours, 48 hours a week, whatever it is, they're about to go nuclear. Hit that site, flatten it, turn it to glass, whatever you have to do. This is, this is not that.

[Mona Charen]

No.

[Tom Nichols]

And I suspect this regime will say, this next regime, wherever they are, will say, yeah, you know The North Koreans are laughing at us because this happened just the same way they did the Libyans, that if you'd have had nuclear weapons, this wouldn't have happened to you. But I suspect they're going to play this game a little longer to say, to placate Trump, to say, you win. Oh, yeah, no, never again. You know, and then they'll, they'll start doing what they do and it'll, it's just going to take them, but they

[Mona Charen]

don't have to, they can say that publicly and of course privately, secretly be working on it, except that the Israelis

[Tom Nichols]

and the Americans, a lot of other people be watching pretty closely, you know, about, about whether they're even going to try and restart that program. But again, just like with Saddam Hussein before him and before the Ayatollah, people lose interest, governments lose interest, they get lazy. They just kind of, you know, figured the next day is going to be like the day before, which was the sanctions regime was coming apart in Iraq.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah.

[Tom Nichols]

So, you know, there's a, again, a million ways that this can go wrong and now we just have to hope that it doesn't go wrong. But there ha. It can't go on like this. It can't just be Donald Trump every now and then popping up, throwing a hat on over his bad hair day and giving a stupid speech, you know, to a camera and then disappearing again into his bunker. I mean, that's this whole business of launching a major war from a blanket. Fortunately, you know, at Mar a Lago is, is bananas. I'm sorry, I, I, I went back and looked at previous uses of force and I found a clip. I mean, Ronald Reagan went on TV to talk about a one and done strike on Libya in 86. Not even like a major, you know, I mean, I remember the, the strikes and it wasn't a big major attack on Libya. He sent in a flight, they tried to kill Gaddafi, they blew up some stuff in Tripoli and they came home and Ronald Reagan felt go on television in the Oval Office behind his desk and say, I am here to report to you on what I just did. Now that's the least Donald Trump owes us. Instead of these, you know, ready for Fox and Oann campaign clips or, you know, Pete Hegseth, you know, at 8 o' clock in the morning about, you know, how lethal we are, that that's not an explanation and it's certainly not showing the appropriate respect for the American people or their representatives.

[Mona Charen]

And we will see whether the American people agree with those of us who participated in the no kings rallies to say, this is where we've come, this is what we've got now we've got a major war can be undertaken by the whim of one man. And that is the exact opposite of what the founders intended. They didn't want that kind of kingly power, whatever Clarence Thomas says to the contrary notwithstanding. And so this is a challenge for us at home very much just as much as it is internationally. We didn't want a king. We've got one.

[Tom Nichols]

A mad, violent king.

[Mona Charen]

Yeah.

[Tom Nichols]

And Wade, wait till he starts to try to use the powers of being a war president at home.

[Mona Charen]

Yes, yes. Where dissent will be considered unpatriotic and harming the troops. And so we'll have to crack down on that. Okay. Tom Nichols.

[Tom Nichols]

Well, happy Monday.

[Mona Charen]

Thank you so much. Always good to talk to you, even under these circumstances. Thanks.

[Tom Nichols]

Thanks, Mona. Thanks for having me.

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