Andrew Egger (4:13)

All right, first of all, I don't know who asked the question, but that took some balls. Your thoughts for real?

Sam Stein (4:20)

No. Okay. I almost felt bad. A little bit of me almost felt bad for him up there. The poor guy. I mean, he's just spinning his wheels like crazy. I mean, like, oh, come on. Like, no, there's no good answer. I mean, like, it's totally true. It's totally true. He, he, he, previously, we kind of, he kind of rattled some, the fear of Trump into the markets, right? For a couple of months, we were, they were like, he can't really mean this stuff. Really, really, really. Can he really mean this? And he's like, no, I mean it. I fucking love tariffs. Tariffs are everything to me. I'm doing the tariffs now. And, and then the markets went absolutely berserk. And like two seconds later he was like, actually, you know what? We're, we're not doing the tariffs. We're out of the deal. We're pulling it all back, you know, 145. That's pretty high. You know, that's a little high even, I think. And ever since then, he's kept slapping these things on, taking these things off, slapping these things on, taking things off. And the markets have not reacted because they are actually pricing these things in now. Right. I mean, it's, it's, it's totally true. They're ignoring him, they're pretending. He, they're, they're, they're doing the taco trade.

Andrew Egger (5:21)

So why do you feel bad for him?

Sam Stein (5:22)

Oh, it's just, it's hard to watch anybody up there just sort of spinning their wheels where. Well, with that chiron across his chest. Donald Trump, let the record say, I did not chicken out. Jeanine Pirro in the background, like, like, just kind of like doing her face.

Andrew Egger (5:37)

Yeah, she's. What am I doing here? I gave up a great Fox News gig for this. No, it was, it was. First of all, I had no idea that this was a thing. But secondly, it's true. I've been talking about this with Tim. Tim and I have this running gag about taking the over, under and whether he's going to lift the terrace. And I always take the under. He's always going to lift him. He never, ever, ever follows through. It's always. And he's even out there. I'd like. The best part is the emission where he's like, I'm just setting these absurdly high numbers so that I can bring it down somewhere and then proclaim victory. He' definitely pulling the curtain back.

Sam Stein (6:11)

Have you ever heard of negotiating? I don't know, like, totally, totally. Like, I think a couple months ago you can probably roll back, but you're.

Andrew Egger (6:17)

Not supposed to give away the, you're not supposed to just say out loud. That's what I'm doing.

Sam Stein (6:21)

Right.

Andrew Egger (6:22)

Sort of defeats the purpose.

Sam Stein (6:23)

Yeah, no, look, look, I'm going to start with a crazy high number and that's going to put the fear of God into you and soften you up for me. Well, now it's not. Yeah, I mean, it wasn't before and now it's definitely not. But I think if you look back at some of our videos talking about this tariff stuff, like from early April or whatever, I was probably taking the over relative to your under because, I mean, it was hard. The guy loves tariffs. Like we know that. That's like his deepest held belief. Is that sure. Just really good for you.

Andrew Egger (6:45)

But he loves negotiating more than tariffs. Right.

Sam Stein (6:48)

And it's, it's start. Yeah. And it's starting to really look like, you know, that, that kind of like April, early April, like Liberation Day. And then the back off of that is like the pivot from like the first act to the second act of, of the Trump presidency.

Andrew Egger (7:01)

There is the possibility that by asking this question and injecting the taco trade into Trump's mind in the zeitgeist, this reporter has inadvertently, perhaps led us into an incredible trade war.

Sam Stein (7:15)

Yes.

Andrew Egger (7:15)

And that we will, we will not tank the economy at a peak. But I'm a little bit worried about that.

Sam Stein (7:21)

You can't discount that at all. I mean, he said it himself. He's like, that's such a nasty question. He said that's the nastiest question. Which is true.

Andrew Egger (7:27)

I mean, like, watch this.

Sam Stein (7:29)

If you're Trump, if you're Trump, like, what's a, what's a, what's a question that like hits at his, the core of his self identity harder than analysts who handle billions of dollars now making the financial bet that you are not going to follow through on what you say. Your response to that, like, it's like, what does he say? It's absurd. Because, because these people are not. Like, he wants these people to be making a bet on America's golden age. Right. He wants these people to be saying like, yeah, yeah, we're all in with Trump like they were when he first got elected. And now it's exactly the opposite.

Andrew Egger (8:00)

The latest chicken out happened a couple of days ago where I guess out of nowhere he sort of bleated that he was going to, you know, put a 50 tariff on EU and went off on Tim Cook for some reason and all this stuff. And then, you know, two days ago he announces that he's actually in fact going to negotiate a trade deal before the 50 tariff takes effect and then he's going to delay those tariffs until July 9th. Yet another punt in the tariffs. So, Andrew, I'm up, I'm up on Polymarket. I'm up there all day. I'm just making money left and right. They have a bet for the percentage chance that those 50% tariffs go into effect on the EU by July 9. What do you think the percentage chance is right now per poly market?

Sam Stein (8:49)

Do not look what you're asking me a trivia question about where polymarket sits, Right?

Donald Trump (8:54)

Yeah.

Andrew Egger (8:54)

What do you think? Yeah, what do you think? Poly Market's percentage. What the bettors think is the percentage chance that those tariffs will go into effect on July 9.

Sam Stein (9:01)

25%.

Andrew Egger (9:02)

Too high. 15%. No one believes he's gonna go through with it. Taco is the new. Is the new zeitgeist. It is. It is what we. It's everyone's belief about Trump. He's just a chicken.

Sam Stein (9:14)

Who's this guy? Who's this guy who coined the taco trade? I ran it down a minute ago. Robert Armstrong. Look, congratulations to Robert Armstrong with Financial Times. You don't necessarily expect as a Financial Times columnist to like it sounds like.

Andrew Egger (9:25)

A great morning shots, a little Robert Armstrong mini profile.

Sam Stein (9:29)

Yeah, this is great. Yeah, let's hit him up. Let's hit him up. No, it's. I mean, it's so. It's so true. It's what's happening. It's the taco trade. Until it's not. Until he. Until he decides.

Andrew Egger (9:36)

He decides.

Sam Stein (9:37)

He cannot possibly. Yeah, he can't possibly reward this kind of behavior. He's got a. Yeah, well, we'll see. Maybe tomorrow the Dow will drop 80% as he slaps every Liberation Day tariff back on and says.

Andrew Egger (9:50)

And tags Robert on his bleach.

Sam Stein (9:53)

Yeah, fuck you, Robert. Yeah. Opens a criminal investigation into him. Yeah, something like that.

Andrew Egger (9:57)

Have fun in El Salvador, Robert. All right, Andrew, it's always a pleasure. Thank you for talking tacos with me. Really appreciate it. Thank you guys for watching on the YouTubes. Appreciate that. Subscribe to the feed, we'll talk to you soon.