Bulwark Takes: "Trump Called a Chicken To His Face–He Loses It On Camera"

Release Date: May 28, 2025
Hosts: Sam Stein & Andrew Egger

Introduction: Setting the Scene

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, Sam Stein and Andrew Egger delve into a recent unplanned press conference held by former President Donald Trump. This spontaneous event, initially scheduled to discuss Mark Jean "Pirro" Piro's interim appointment as U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, took an unexpected turn when Trump was confronted with a probing question about the so-called "taco trade."

Trump's Unplanned Press Conference

[00:36] Sam Stein introduces the context:
"We just got through with a Trump press conference, an impromptu one. He hadn't scheduled it on his daily guidance, but he added it."

The press conference was meant to address the appointment of Jean Pirro but quickly shifted focus as reporters took the opportunity to question Trump on various topics.

The Emergence of the "Taco Trade"

[01:10] Andrew Egger explains the term:
"It's not actual tacos. It's an acronym, and it stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. And it's about his approach to tariffs."

The term "taco trade" was coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong to describe Trump's tendency to backtrack on his tariff threats. This behavior has significant implications for financial markets and America's trade policies.

Dissecting Trump's Response

During the press conference, a reporter from Financial Times posed the pivotal question:

[01:50] Reporter:
"Mr. President, Wall street analysts have coined a new term called the taco trade. They're saying Trump always chickens out on your tariff threats, and that's why markets..."

[01:58] Donald Trump:
"Are higher this week."

Trump's response was particularly noteworthy. Addressing the "taco trade" directly, he vehemently denied the accusation, attributing market fluctuations to specific tariff adjustments:

[02:00] Donald Trump:
"I reduced China from 145% that I set down to 100 and then down to another number... We have $14 trillion now invested, committed to investing."
"You ask a nasty question like that, it's called negotiation... you set a number, and if you go down, you know, a little bit..."
[02:35]

Trump's rhetoric painted him as a strategic negotiator, countering the "chickening out" narrative by emphasizing his proactive tariff policies and negotiations with global entities like China and the European Union.

Hosts' Analysis and Reactions

[04:13] Andrew Egger breaks the silence, surprised by Trump's bold confrontation:
"All right, first of all, I don't know who asked the question, but that took some balls. Your thoughts for real?"

[04:20] Sam Stein responds candidly:
"No. Okay. I almost felt bad. A little bit of me almost felt bad for him up there. The poor guy..."
[04:27]

Sam reflects on Trump's struggle to maintain consistency with his tariff promises, highlighting the frustration among analysts and investors:

[04:45] Sam Stein:
"He's kept slapping these things on, taking these things off. And the markets have not reacted because they are actually pricing these things in now."
[05:00]

Andrew Egger adds depth to the discussion by referencing their ongoing analysis with Tim Miller about Trump's reliability on tariffs:

[05:12] Andrew Egger:
"I've been talking about this with Tim. Tim and I have this running gag about taking the over, under and whether he's going to lift the tariffs. And I always take the under."
[05:15]

The Mechanics of Trump's Negotiation Tactics

The hosts delve into Trump's negotiation strategy, characterized by setting high initial tariffs to pressure counterparties:

[06:11] Sam Stein:
"I'm going to start with a crazy high number and that's going to put the fear of God into you and soften you up for me."
[06:17]

However, this approach has backfired as markets and analysts have grown skeptical of Trump's follow-through, leading to the prevalence of the "taco trade" stereotype.

Market Implications and Future Predictions

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the potential economic repercussions of Trump's inconsistent tariff policies:

[07:15] Andrew Egger:
"There is the possibility that by asking this question and injecting the taco trade into Trump's mind in the zeitgeist, this reporter has inadvertently perhaps led us into an incredible trade war."
[07:18]

Sam agrees on the gravity of the situation:

[07:21] Sam Stein:
"You can't discount that at all."
[07:23]

They explore the impact on financial markets, referencing platforms like Polymarket to gauge public sentiment on the likelihood of tariffs being implemented:

[08:49] Sam Stein:
"25%."
[08:49]

[08:54] Andrew Egger:
"Too high. 15%. No one believes he's gonna go through with it."
[08:54]

This segment underscores the diminishing confidence in Trump's tariff commitments, with market participants increasingly viewing them as unreliable.

Conclusion: The Future of the Taco Trade

As the episode wraps up, Stein and Egger reflect on the sustainability of Trump's current stance:

[09:25] Andrew Egger:
"It's so true. It's what's happening. It's the taco trade. Until it's not. Until he."
[09:29]

[09:36] Sam Stein:
"He cannot possibly reward this kind of behavior."
[09:37]

The hosts speculate on potential market upheavals should Trump decisively implement or retract tariffs, highlighting the delicate balance between political rhetoric and economic reality.

Final Thoughts

Sam Stein and Andrew Egger provide a critical examination of Trump's fluctuating tariff policies, emphasizing the emergence and implications of the "taco trade." Their analysis sheds light on the broader economic uncertainties stemming from political maneuvers, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of the nuanced interplay between leadership decisions and market stability.

Notable Quotes:

• Donald Trump ([02:00]): "I set down to 100 and then down to another number... You ask a nasty question like that, it's called negotiation."

• Andrew Egger ([01:10]): "It's not actual tacos. It's an acronym, and it stands for Trump Always Chickens Out."

• Sam Stein ([04:20]): "I almost felt bad. A little bit of me almost felt bad for him up there."

• Andrew Egger ([05:12]): "I've been talking about this with Tim. Tim and I have this running gag about taking the over, under and whether he's going to lift the tariffs."

This detailed summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and analyses presented in the episode, providing a comprehensive overview for those who haven't tuned in.