Bill Crystal (5:14)

You know, I do think someone put it that to me, it was 20 years ago when Bush's numbers started to collapse in 2005 and, and they started to go down obviously because of the Iraq war as well as Katrina and Harriet Myers and other things. But when his numbers started to collapse on how's he doing in fighting the war on terror, that's what one of the smart Republican types said to me. This is not fixable. I mean that you can't have your strongest issue become a weak issue, that you can survive. Other ish people say I don't really like the Trump's case. The personal life meets too harsh. Maybe even on, you know, all the bigotry, all the million of foreign policy nervous about that. But no, but the economy, the economy, the economy. So I do think it is interesting as you say, that he's at 44 approval on the economy and 47 overall. It makes one think that 47 can come back. Is the 44 might be a more of a leading indicator than the 47. The 44. You and I were talking about this before, but I'd like, I'd love you to share your thoughts on this. So the 44 he was at 51 approve in 3-2-48. 3-30-44 now. So that's about a point. Almost exactly.

Sarah Longwell (6:17)

That's what his economy. That's the.

Bill Crystal (6:19)

Yes, that's the economy.

Sarah Longwell (6:20)

Specifically on the economy.

Bill Crystal (6:22)

Right. Got to 47 approvals. But on both cases on the general approval, which was 53. 47. 50. 50. 47. 53 over these six, seven weeks he's gone down basically a point a week. And I guess part of me thinks I don't know, point a week. Shouldn't this be, shouldn't he be. This is a disastrous policy he's embraced and it's been disastrously executed. Shouldn't it be worse? But maybe a point a week is. If a point of week kept going a point a week, that would be a lot. So which, which are you. Is the point of week good or is it, or is it annoyingly slow?

Sarah Longwell (6:51)

I think it's good. And this is just me exercising a theory here, but my theory would be that if his numbers sort of collapsed fast and like it was just this market signal that we don't like this one thing, Trump reverses it, it probably comes back up. I think a sustained drop that is slow likely. I think it's harder to win those numbers back. I think that reflects probably the slow changing of minds on Trump overall. And I'm talking about his overall approval rating because like his number on inflation, he's at 40% on his handling of inflation. And so I think what happens is your point about the leading indicator and so he's at 44 in the economy overall is that over time Trump will go down to meet those numbers on the economy if it sustains. And once you're down in 42 percenter. Last time I was on, I was talking about like you got to get Trump. I think I said 32%, 35%. And that, you know, that number is really just a reflection of what I think Trump's durable base is and where I think you have people who voted for him on the businessman mythology and the economy are. And so if you sort of separate those two, you can assume that people with their red hats on, like they stick with Trump when they're sort of naked on the side of the road, their house is gone. But like as long as they've got that hat, they're still pro Trump. It's somebody else's fault. That'll be the immigrant's fault, that'll be the left's fault, whatever. But the people who voted for Trump out of purely self serving reasons just, I want my groceries to be cheaper, I want stuff to be cheaper, I want housing to be more abundant, all of those things. When that doesn't happen, I think those people, as they peel away, then Trump goes from boy, I've got an iron grip on so many voters, including independent voters, including these Hispanic and black voters who've been moving our way to. The only people Trump has a super grip on is the MAGA base. Now that, and that ultimately represents a real quandary for Republicans because it means, as it has now for some time, that Trump can sort of still own a majority of a Democratic or sorry, of a Republican primary and a Republican primary voters. And so you continue to get really, really Trumpy people. But if Trump is wrecking the economy, the coalition that is sort of lined up against those types of people and no longer thinks they're good for the economy, that becomes the vast majority of people.

Bill Crystal (9:31)

You know, it's striking just along the same lines too that in the CBS asked think intelligently. Actually, who do you think is most responsible for the economy right now and for the state of the economy? Trump, 54%. Biden 21%. Both of them 20%. I think so. I mean, that's pretty striking that he's only been president. It's hard to believe, but I guess the downside of all that activity of his is people think he's really in charge and he's really changed everything. And it's his. I mean, I think Reagan. I'm old enough to remember this, you're not. Reagan benefited a lot because even a year and a half in 82 and the bad recession that we had with Volcker was squeezing inflation, squeezing interest rates down. And they still thought, well, that's kind of Carter's fault. You know, he gave him. Reagan inherited a bad. He got. We have to give him a little more time for the stuff to work. Now, ultimately, the stuff worked. I mean, ultimately, reality matters a lot. Right. So Reagan wouldn't have been successful if he hadn't had a big comeback in 83 and 84. And we should. And that's true, obviously, about Trump ultimately, too. I think if the economy's booming a year from now, he can weather this rocky initial patch of tariffs. I don't think I slightly bit, but I am struck by how much voters. It's all Trumps now and in a way more the economy. I suspect that other issues, don't you think foreign policy, they'll say, well, the world was messy, Biden was weak. That's hard for Trump to figure out. Give him a little time. The fact that they've given him such, the voters have given him such ownership of the economy is pretty striking, I think.

Sarah Longwell (10:53)

Yeah, he asked for it. I mean, and look, voters, remember, I hear this in the focus groups a lot, like, well, he said he was going to lower prices right away. That's not happening. But they're like, but I understand, like Rome wasn't built in a day. Things don't happen in a day. But the longer inflation is persistent and, but this thing about Trump's ownership of the economy, that is really true. I mean, he just like they hired him for the economy. And this is where Trump, I think, is misreading his mandate. Like, you could say, yes, there were sort of two issues the voters really hired him to take care of. One was the economy, and that includes inflation. The other one was immigration, I think, and you could maybe throw crime in there a little bit. But I think that voters, those are always the top issues. And when you. I think one of the persistent problems for Democrats is that if you ask the majority of voters their top issues and then you ask them which issues they think which party is better on, it is the Republicans, the issues that they focus on tend to align more with where the vast majority of Americans are in terms of what they care about. And so voters were really clear what they were hiring Donald Trump to do, which is why he's leaning so hard. Like, when the market was crashing, you suddenly saw a whole bunch more tweets about, like, trans sports. Like, suddenly, like, trans. A trans person doing disc golf. I don't know. I really understand that as a sport. But, like, those went up because people that. You could see the sort of MAGA influencers being like, quick, throw something else into the water to distract them from the fact that the economy is tanking. And you can do that with some portion of Trump's base. You really can. Like, they're there for the grievance, culture war issues and, you know, owning the libs all day long. And as long as they're still deporting people without due process, they're going to be fans of that. The economy, though, it just is. It's just it. For a lot more of the American voters, it's gonna. That's gonna be a matter. That's the personal consequences. And it's Trump's. It's Trump's. And that's good. I mean, it's good in the sense that you remember when the signal chain came out, when they put Jeffrey Goldberg on there, there was an actual. In the back and forth. I can't remember which official did it, but they were like, our position is one, blame Biden. Biden was weak. You know, like, they laid out the fact that trying to blame Biden is part of it. And they are doing that. Right? They're trying to say to people right now, well, we've got. So we've got to, you know, fix this economy that Biden left us, that was so wrecked. But actually, if you look at any economic data, you will see that the manufacturing was going up under Biden and it started to crater during Trump. And I think Democrats. I wish you would tell that story a little bit more. Go out there and tell that story. But in any event, I don't think blaming the economy on Biden's gonna work for them outside of that, like, 32%.

Bill Crystal (13:50)

My sense also, we'll get onto the Democrats in a second, because you did such interesting focus groups this week with progressive Democrats and moderate Democrats, but it seems to me they're not just one last thing on the economy. Again, thinking back to Reagan in 81, 82, I think he benefited a lot from the sense that he was. It was. Stayed the course. That's literally what he said. And they didn't waver much. Now, if you know A lot, you know that he did give in. He accepted some tax increases in mid-82 which took back a little bit of the cuts at 81 and so forth. But basically he seemed to be, and he really was, to be fair, sticking with his basic agenda, cutting individual tax rates and supply side tax cuts, letting Volcker squeeze inflation, interest rates down and get inflation out of the economy. I don't you have a sense or maybe I'm wrong. I mean do you think the little, the back and forth stuff that Trump is doing again, leaving aside whether it's actually he's probably helping tariffs are less high because he's now paused the first round and then paused the second round of tariffs on China for, you know, iPhones and so forth. So it's probably helps him a little bit on the real economy for now. Maybe on the other hand it introduces uncertainty. But my sense is politically, I don't know, I feel like maybe he's getting the worst of both worlds. He's pursuing a policy agenda that people are pretty doubtful about and he's doing it in a way that looks kind of chaotic and zigzaggy. Or do you think, I mean, I don't know. I guess the zigzag stuff might help him if he looks like he's reacting to.

Sarah Longwell (15:11)

I just think, look, if I was, I don't like his agenda but were I trying to implement it, I would have done it in exactly the opposite way. Right. Which is you cut taxes first. You do the things that are popular. You, I mean he is putting active pressure on Jerome Powell to lower interest rates which is garbage that he's doing that. But like he is trying to interfere on interest rates. And I mean you in it once the environment was you were like people were seeing you as having done good things for the economy. People were feeling positive impacts. Like then you can do, you could probably you were in a better position to sell your now we're going to remake the American economy agenda. And instead I think what he's done now is they're like trying to panic past tax cuts. He's putting all kinds of pressure on the Fed. That's very like and probably pushing my guess is the Fed to reassert its independence or assert its independence. I don't know what you think about that but I think they're not going to do anything that the market doesn't dictate that they should do. And so yeah, I just don't think and look, prices are going to go up anyway. Like prices are going to go up For a few different reasons. One, people maybe, maybe businesses start to plan for the tariffs by building in price increases. Anyway, there are still the 10% tariffs. And you know, I think one of the things actually with the iPhone and the computers and the chips, that's interesting, David Frum made this point, and I think it's a good one, is that they're basically pulling off the tariffs for the stuff rich people can buy, right? Your nice smartphone, your nice laptop, but cheap clothes, cheap shoes, those types of things that poorer people buy, those worst still get tariffed in this, in this trade war with China. And so, you know, I just don't think we know how this is going to start really rippling through. And I, the one, my guess is people though, that are trying to curb his instincts by getting him to do it slow are hoping that the negative impacts will be medium and not catastrophic and that that will dissuade him from doing the bigger push.

Bill Crystal (17:25)

Right. I mean, another question is if you really do get a rough economy, which I think is quite likely at this point, maybe a recession, but also inflation, and then the Fed is in a terrible position where it can't cut rates for the recession, but it can't hike rates to deal with inflation, then Trump turns on the Fed as an obvious victim to go after. And he could try to fire Powell, especially if they win one of these court cases that increases his authority over independent agencies. It's, they could, the court could distinguish the Fed from some of these other agencies, but it might not. Or he might anyway, Trump might claim it might not. So I think the degree of, yeah, I think the economy, which was kind of his calling people who rewrote the history of 2017-2020 and decided to be for Trump this time after being a little put off by January 6th and worried about Trump and maybe preferring DeSantis or Haley in the primaries. You know, those people did think the economy was the safe part of the Trump agenda. And I, again, I come back to your original point that if, when, when, when the safe part of your, your agenda becomes the unsafe part of your agenda, that's not a good, that can't be good politically now if it all works out and the economy's booming 18 months from now, we're obviously in a different world.

Sarah Longwell (18:32)

But yeah, and look, yeah, you never, you never want the economy to crash like it, this is where everybody's life is. And so, you know, on the other hand, though, and Tim and I talked about this on the secret pod, like there is a benefit long term to people touching the stove and seeing that Donald Trump literally has no idea what he's doing. And that in large part this is just Donald Trump kind of having a good time with the whole American economy and the long term damage it does to people's trust in us around the world, people pulling back their investments in the United States, the decline of the dollar, like he is diminishing America's greatness right in front of our eyes. And I think that the only way we sort of move past so many of these bad ideas or even the idea of putting forward somebody who has no idea what they're doing, just because people think like, oh, they're a celebrity or they're not a regular politician, that that comes with bad outcomes. I do think that's an important, like, that's just like maybe a hard lesson America is going to need to learn.

Bill Crystal (19:37)

Oh, that's a good, that's a good point. Talk about the Democrats. You did these focus groups and discussed them on the focus group pod, I think was they were divided into sort of self described moderates and self described progressives.

Sarah Longwell (19:48)

It's actually. So what we did was I was interested in just hearing from Democrats about how they wanted the party to be to go like, what direction they wanted. And there's this, obviously there's always this debate going on, especially sort of on Twitter, between progressives and moderates on the Democrats side about like, which is as they seek to, you know, rise from the ashes, which is the better direction for them. And so we convened a group of Democrats who wanted the party to be more moderate and a group of Democrats who wanted the party to be more progressive. And as I was listening to them, I kept being like, wait, which group is this? Because you couldn't tell the difference because it didn't matter, moderate or progressive. What they all wanted was the Democrats to be more aggressive. And like, what was funny to me is how when they were talking about the politicians that they like, like with the, with the progressives, like this was sort of the main deviation, as you would hear people say, you know, Rashida Talib and you know, Jasmine Crockett and the moderates were more sort of Cory Booker, whatever. But like, actually there's so there's a little bit of that. But more than anything, there was uniform agreement that people, Democrats are not meeting the moment that they were like, I mean, they were out on Schumer, but they were kind of out on Jeffries too. Like, which I was a little surprised by. I thought he would at least get points for Kind of being like young new gen, but they are, I want new blood. I want people who are going to stand up to this guy. They were very pro bookers doing his, you know, 25 hour speech. Even they understood that it, it didn't matter in the grand scheme of things or like it did, it wasn't going to win them elections. But they felt like people standing up and telling the truth about what's happening is really important right now. Because when you get a Gretchen Whitmer, who goes to Donald Trump, into Donald Trump's office in the Oval Office while he's saying he's going to have the DOJ investigate Chris Krabs and Miles Taylor, people who were from his last administration ultimately critical of him, and she's standing there hiding her face behind her binder, like, that was an enormous missed opportunity. And let me, I just got to say, if Gretchen Whitmer had, in that moment, instead of covering her face with a binder, had said, this is autocratic behavior and I am leaving and I will not be a prop to this, and she walked out. Gretchen Whit would be the front runner for 2028 right now, totally. Because that's what people want to see from their elected leaders. Hiding your face with a binder to act like you weren't there and then putting out a statement that said, like, it wasn't in my, me being there wasn't an endorsement of what he was doing. I'm sorry, man, your voters, Democratic voters, that is, they, they will not stand for it. They want somebody who is putting forward just a clear oppositional framing to Donald Trump. And so, you know, my advice to Democrats is your voters are begging you, like, your numbers are so low because they're mad you're not doing enough. And, and you're not, you're not. This is a moment. I mean, even just the way Democrats, some of them were flubbing the tariffs, like, I mean, I said this, this is not my normal. I try to be, you know, the boys can sometimes be crass. I try not to be. But I will say, like, it is fairly obvious to me that when Donald Trump is just like punching himself in the nuts and like losing voters and everyone's mad at him, your job is not to then go turn around and punch yourself in the nuts. Go hit him. Go on offense. What is wrong? I just, these are the parts where, you know, sometimes people complain, oh, you guys, you know, who are Republicans, you just get mad at Democrats. And I'm always like, listen, what I need as an American, forget right or left just as an American right. We do not want this autocratic experiment to be like to, to win. We don't want, we don't want it to be to denormalized. And so my, what I want is slightly agnostic of policy. I'm with these voters. I want to see Democrats saying every day, relentlessly, I don't know where this line of thinking really comes from of like we need to stand back and do nothing. I've even seen some retconning of what Schumer did in not standing up on the bill, on the funding bill because they're like, well this would have distracted from Trump, you know, decimating the economy. And I'm like, this is, that is like you. What is, I don't know, whatever reverse four dimensional chess is like no, you need to highlight what is happening every second of every day that your job is and to push back, put bills. Don't. You don't have to go be a tick tock influencer, be a legislator, go make them take bad votes. I mean you can't make them take bad votes because you are not in charge right now. But you can do things to, to highlight and Cory Booker was a good example of that.

Bill Crystal (25:02)

And you could sort of make them take bad votes. You could make them take votes that will prevent bulls from coming to the floor, which you can then say, I mean truthfully, this is in effect a vote for the tariffs. And you can say over and over that four Republican senators and four Republican House members could stop these tariffs. Now it's not quite correct. I mean there'd be a veto maybe of a resolution to overturn them or to suspend the emergency powers though there's actual legislation that Grassley's introduced. It would go further and actually would stop them if it passed. And if, if you could then maybe overturn the veto with a senior Republican like Grassley and board. But anyway, you don't have to get into all that. I think this is the key point. I, I was struck. I was with a bunch of Democrats earlier this week. Very nice meeting. Very, some of them very impressive. But they couldn't, they talked about the town halls they've been doing and say I always have to begin by explaining that we don't have power here in Washington. So they have to kick. They can't, I don't want them to hold us responsible for not doing things they can do. Just seemed absolutely backwards. You have to say it is an outrage. I've introduced or co signed or whatever, co sponsored 18 pieces of legislation to stop this, to stop this, to stop that. And I've spoken up every day against it now and then you give that for three or four second minutes now. You can then say, you have to understand the Republicans who are in the majority are doing their best to prevent all these bills from coming to a vote. But you need to lead with what you're doing. You're an elected official, not lead with a kind of pundit explanation of how, you know, in the American system when you have a very united majority party against you, you don't have much power. The House rules really aren't friendly to minorities. I mean, they're like, they're like, act like political scientists, not like elected officials to some degree. But maybe they're changing some. I'd say they're. Do you think they're kind of coming around? I feel like they're, they're kind of gradually getting there. Maybe.

Sarah Longwell (26:40)

I think they're seeing things. So part of, and this is where, you know, I think you can look at Cory Booker from a like sheer vote perspective or anything else and be like, well, it didn't move the needle anywhere. Well, except that a lot of people wanted to talk to Cory Booker about him taking a stand. And a bunch of the voters brought it up as like, yes, please, anything, like, reflect my level of concern about the moment. And I think that that can give, like we always talk about permission structures. I think that can build some permission structures for other Democrats to say, I see what's happening, I just need to start saying something. And also, and I, I know this is disappointing because I think we're pretty desperate for some leadership in this moment as we watch everyone in the elite class. I mean, this week we saw a bunch more law firms capitulate to Trump, almost pre surrender to Trump. He wasn't even going after them yet. They're just like throwing money at him so that he doesn't come after them. But like the protests, those are good. I, I mean you have got, we have got to show that the energy is in opposition to what is happening. And so it's going to take people peacefully in the streets, not just once. Like this is, it's going to have to build, I think over time. And also, I'll just say one last thing. And this goes to some things that, you know, I'm going to work on in some of my other capacities, but I think it's very important. Again, going back to the idea that you people are going to lead elites on this, that's a bad sign. But still, this is what's going to happen. Go make a video. I don't care if you're on TikTok or Instagram or Twitter or YouTube or whatever, pick your platform, the one you like, and make a video about how Trump's policies are negatively impacting your life or negatively impacting the lives of people. You know, put them online. Like, let's flood the zone with the stories of what is happening. Because that I think people are always like, well, what can I do? What can I do? I'm like, you got to say, tell your story. You got to let somebody can hear it. This is what, this is what Republicans did, even when they were mad about inflation and everybody. It became this thing where they would take pictures of their. The checks at dinner. That's how we learned that, you know, some people were complaining about it after ordering a steak and a bourbon and a couple of bourbons. That is people saying, look at this negative consequence on me personally, and I'm sharing it. The left is going to have to do that right now, too, including independents, Republicans who regret their vote for Trump. Like, getting those stories out there, the way it's negatively impacting people, that's the.

Bill Crystal (29:22)

Key way it's affecting friends and neighbors and others, or just issues you care about. I think people could be somewhat. They should people sometimes. That's very good advice. I think, incidentally, and I do get asked this, as you do all the time, you know, what can we do? And. And I say, well, some version of what you said, though not. That was very well said. And I think the focus on the videos is very important because it's such a doable thing. If you can't do it, you can get some younger neighbor or nephew to help you do it, and then it's up. And, you know, maybe 100 people watch it and not either already agree. So it doesn't have much effect. And maybe it goes a little viral and 5,000 people watch it, maybe 50,000 people watch it. You just don't know. And maybe it triggers other people to do it. And I think the same is. And then they say, well, what issues I need to look at? If someone needs to tell me what I should talk about, I. I mean, obviously, you know, there should be a focus on some of the big main issues. You don't want some crackpot thing, though. It's a free country. You can't stop it. But they should pick whatever issues. Most offend them, honestly, I think, and most move them and that they have some personal connection to, you know, I. My cousin's married to someone who. Venezuela. From Venezuela who just lost temporary protected status is going to be deported and he or she, he's been working steadily for the three years he's been here and paying taxes and what is going on. This is totally, you know, it doesn't have to all be kind of tariff related though. That's the biggest issue right now. So. Yeah, that's really, I mean, do you find people react. I mean, I guess we've seen some of these videos begin to pop up, right. Not, not even through the sort of the organizations that you've been so involved in, but just spontaneously online line.

Sarah Longwell (30:49)

Yeah. And I think, I do think this is what shifts vibes. Like you hear people talk about vibes and I think that when people get fired from jobs as a result of the economy, when they see as a retiree on fixed incomes, you know, losing money at a time when, you know, they're, they're not very far from retirement, like all the scary things, I think people need to tell those stories because when people just hold them inside, you know, then, then I think, and this is where the right wing ecosystem, the right wing media ecosystem is so efficient. Like even looking at the numbers of people who say, you know, in the long term we're going to benefit and most of those are Republicans, they're living in a media ecosystem that is telling them that news. They're like, if you just hang on, this is going to be better for you long term. And I think the left gets in this mindset of like, well, we need our own media ecosystem totally to some degree. I mean it's not a bad thing that we're all moving in the, in the direction of independent media and you know, trusted voices and trusted messengers over, you know, the media brands, that of our childhood. But the number one thing that people trust still is people like me. And I don't mean me, Sarah Longwell, I mean me like everyday person. And when people see other people sharing their stories, they will share them too. Like that permission structure has always been really that it was a thing that happened on the right where regular Republican voters started to talk about how expensive their groceries were or how how expensive meals were. And it bubbled up to like the elite levels of the right where they started doing it more to some mocking but for real people posting their grocery bills. Like people should still do that. Post your grocery bills, show them that tariffs or, or that inflation is continuing to harm you. Like that is how you do it.

Bill Crystal (32:48)

No, that's so good that's such great advice and a good thing to. And you don't have to have a. Honestly, do you do. A really long explanation. You don't have to buy into some economic figure, say, well, Trump's introduced these tariffs, and the effect of tariffs is it's a kind of a tax. And just say, Trump said he was going to get our prices down. Here's my bill, you know, if you have it from three weeks ago, here's my bill from today or whatever. I mean, I think, yeah, I think simplicity is fine and you don't have to explain everything and you don't have to cover everything. Right. These things could be cumulative and add up in a pretty powerful way, actually. Yeah, that's great that you suggest that. Okay, any final words? That's. That's a really wonderful last word, but.

Sarah Longwell (33:25)

We could leave it there. I just, I want people to, you know, don't get beaten down. I think, I think it can be hard psychologically, actually. One of the tough things about the tariffs, when Trump pulls them back, is that he claims victory and lots of people let him. Right? His whole administration comes out and says, art of the deal. And it's very frustrating because for a hot second, right, people could see that the emperor had no clothes, and you can see them, you know, coming, clawing it back into their own reality where they're lying to people and people are buying it. And that's frustrating. But I, I think that that is, you can only do that for so long when the consequences are actually negative. Like, people will feel them.

Bill Crystal (34:09)

Yeah, a colleague of ours texted. He's going to get away with this, isn't he? What? He pulled back, I think, on the tariffs, and I, I think not, actually. But anyway, yeah, that's a good note to add on. Sarah, thank you for joining me on this, taking half an hour out of your weekend, and thank you all for joining us on the bull work on Sunday.

Sarah Longwell (34:28)

Bye, guys.