Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes – "Trump Created America’s First Man-Made Stagflation Crisis"
Release Date: August 14, 2025
Introduction
In this compelling episode of Bulwark Takes, hosted by JVL and featuring Bulwark colleague Andrew Egger, the discussion centers around the assertion that former President Donald Trump has engineered America's first man-made stagflation crisis. The hosts delve deep into the economic indicators, policy decisions, and their broader implications on the American economy and political landscape.
Economic Indicators: Rising Inflation and Producer Price Index (PPI)
The episode kicks off with alarming economic data indicating a significant surge in inflation. JVL highlights that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has jumped by 3.3%, marking the largest increase since 2022.
JVL [01:18]: “And these were kind of a slobber knocker. It's not just 3.3% increase year over year in the Producer Price Index. It's almost a whole percentage point up just from a month ago.”
Andrew adds context, explaining that while some inflation was anticipated due to tariff-induced supply chain disruptions, the magnitude of the PPI increase was unexpected and detrimental.
Causes of the Stagflation Crisis: Trump's Economic Policies
The hosts attribute the current stagflation to Trump's economic strategies, particularly his imposition of tariffs and the resulting upheaval in global supply chains. Andrew emphasizes that Trump's unilateral decisions have reshaped global markets according to his preferences, leading to systemic inefficiencies and widespread economic strain.
Andrew Egger [02:54]: “Except that instead of a global pandemic doing that to the economy, now it's just Trump's fun economic decisions. Just like his decision, his unilateral decision to reshape global markets according to whatever his daily whims were...”
Comparison to Biden’s Administration: Past vs. Present Stagflation
JVL contrasts the current crisis with the economic challenges faced during Biden's presidency. Under Biden, the U.S. grappled with inflation exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted supply chains and led to significant capital injections by the central bank. Despite these challenges, Biden's administration managed to maintain stronger economic fundamentals towards the end of his term, including real wage growth.
JVL [04:29]: “Under Biden, we just had inflation and that was not great. But we also were coming off of a once in a century pandemic... And we're doing none of this for any reason. And there is no, it's a man-made crisis...”
Andrew concurs, noting that while Biden's administration faced its inflation issues, the underlying economic situation remained fundamentally robust, contrasting sharply with the current man-made stagflation.
Defining Stagflation and Its Implications
Stagflation, characterized by stagnant economic growth, rising unemployment, and increasing prices, is at the heart of the discussion. JVL underscores that this phenomenon is being driven by a combination of softening demand and escalating costs, creating a no-win scenario for economic policymakers.
JVL [04:29]: “This is stagflation. This is literally stagflation. You have unemployment creeping up, job growth starting to flatten out, demand softening and prices going up.”
Public Perception and Political Messaging
A significant portion of the conversation revolves around how economic hardships are perceived and communicated to the public. JVL criticizes the ability of political messaging to distort economic realities, questioning whether the American populace can maintain rational perspectives in light of relentless positive spins from the administration amidst dire economic indicators.
JVL [05:49]: “Isn’t it possible, Andrew, that with Donald Trump in our faces six hours a day, every day, and the entire business community sort of like... pretending that everything is great, that people look around and say, well, so long as I personally still have my job, everything must be fine?”
Andrew acknowledges the possibility but points out the broader, systemic issues that make such positive spins untenable when everyday consumers directly feel the economic pain.
Andrew Egger [08:01]: “I think there's a lot of reasons to believe that even though Trump and his people are gonna put a brave face on this... it's a lot harder to do that when it is hitting people where they are every day...”
Federal Reserve's Dilemma: Navigating Rate Cuts Amidst Inflation
The hosts discuss the precarious position of the Federal Reserve, which faces conflicting pressures: the need to cut interest rates to stimulate a slowing job market versus the imperative to control rising inflation. JVL expresses uncertainty about the Fed's potential actions, noting the intricacies of addressing two opposing economic challenges simultaneously.
JVL [13:05]: “The Fed can wind up in a little bit of a bind where what do you do? You see the job market softening in alarming ways and you see economic slowdown, but you also see inflation starting to rise...”
Andrew elaborates on this no-win situation, emphasizing that the current economic turmoil surpasses past issues like the "vibes" problems under Biden, making traditional monetary policy tools less effective.
Andrew Egger [14:23]: “What we are rapidly approaching now is the exact opposite thing. It's like a no win situation... the engine's falling out of the car.”
Targeted Economic Pain and Public Sentiment
JVL speculates whether Trump's administration might attempt to localize economic hardships to specific regions or demographics, thereby shielding broader populations from the brunt of inflationary pressures. However, Andrew expresses skepticism about the feasibility of such targeted approaches given the systemic nature of the current economic crisis.
JVL [10:34]: “Maybe Trump's thinks that he can localize all of the pain for this stuff with the people who don't vote for him...”
Andrew Egger [11:45]: “The overall problem here that they're trying to get around is this system wide inflation that accompanies...”
Impact of Long-Term Policies and Future Outlook
The discussion culminates in a grim outlook for the American economy. Both hosts agree that without significant policy adjustments, the current trajectory is unsustainable and will likely lead to continued economic hardship. They express concern over Trump's reluctance to abandon unfavorable tariffs and the cumulative damage caused by ongoing supply chain inefficiencies.
Andrew Egger [18:38]: “It's getting real. He... there is very little indication that he will learn from these lessons. So we should not really expect these to change.”
JVL concludes by emphasizing the severity of the situation and the lack of viable solutions on the horizon, warning listeners of the impending economic challenges.
JVL [19:45]: “Good luck, America.”
Conclusion
This episode of Bulwark Takes presents a sobering analysis of the current U.S. economic landscape, attributing the onset of stagflation to Trump's economic policies. Through a detailed examination of economic indicators, policy decisions, and their broader implications, JVL and Andrew Egger paint a picture of an economy grappling with significant, man-made challenges. The discussion highlights the complexities of addressing stagflation, the difficulties in shaping public perception, and the uncertain role of the Federal Reserve in navigating these turbulent times. As the episode wraps up, the hosts leave listeners with a stark warning about the future of America's economic health.