← Bulwark Takes
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- [00:00]
Tim Miller
Hey, guys. Tim Miller from the Bulwark here with managing editor Sam Stein. Wanted to run through just the wild timeline of the ceasefire. No ceasefire dance we're seeing, I guess our, our great president, in his judiciousness last night tweeted or bleeded that we are six hours away from a ceasefire. He was naming his own war. We're going to call it the 12 day war. We're going to go to a moment of great peace. We love everyone, we love Iran, we love Israel. That was him last night on social media. It was followed by Iran bombing Israel right up to, and I think a little after the cease fire was supposed to happen, resulting in the deaths of several Israelis and some real damage, followed by Israel then bombing, and then Iran sent another weak missile. Then Israel bombed again. And then Trump got a little upset about it this morning. Before we play, Mr. Trump cussing about how his great ceasefire is, is maybe finicky at the moment. Sam, any big, any takes on what we've seen overnight?
- [01:05]
Sam Stein
No, it's dizzying.
- [01:07]
Tim Miller
Okay, here's Trump after all of that. He was heading out to Looks like Marine One there and was Marine One.
- [01:13]
Sam Stein
On the way to the NATO summit where he's supposed to be talking about all this stuff. So he's obviously, you know, got a lot on his mind.
- [01:20]
Tim Miller
I'm sure our NATO allies are very excited to see him. Let's, let's watch a very frustrated President of the United States, Israel.
- [01:28]
Donald Trump
As soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I've never seen before. The biggest load that we've seen. I'm not happy with Israel. You know, when I say, okay, now you have 12 hours, you don't go out in the first hour, just drop everything you have on them. So I'm not happy with them. I'm not happy with Iran either. But I'm really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning because the one rocket that didn't land, that was shot, perhaps by mistake, that didn't land, I'm not happy about that. You know what? We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing. You understand that?
- [02:10]
Tim Miller
There it is, the F bomb. Dropping the F bomb. No longer is it our, we love Israel, we love Iran, Great peace. Now it's fuck Israel, Fuck Iran. What the fuck is wrong with you guys? Guys. Now, you know, we like cussing around here in the Borg, so nothing wrong.
- [02:26]
Sam Stein
With it, but I would never cuss this, you know, he it all up.
- [02:32]
Tim Miller
The tone with which he dropped it like reveals like I think he really might have thought he had something there. He thought he had his Nobel Prize and it's running into the reality of a centuries old conflict between the Persians and the, you know, the Jewish homeland Jews.
- [02:47]
Sam Stein
Yeah, that might be, that might be a little harder to resolve than a bleep. Look, Andrew Weger at Morning Shots. You know, catalog this in, in this morning's editions, like six stages. There was a relief when this was first announced and then triumph. We didn't, we didn't have this because it wasn't on video. But he told NBC after the ceasefire, this is the quote, the ceasefire is unlimited. It's going to go forever. I don't believe they will ever be shooting at each other again. That's a pretty high bar.
- [03:12]
Tim Miller
They were shooting each other like eight minutes after that.
- [03:15]
Sam Stein
Didn't take long. Then he was a little bit worried and then obviously frustrated and then downright pissed as he got on the plane for the NATO summit. And then he followed that up by saying, well, you know, I talked to them and they're just going to do what he called the plane wave, I believe. So we're going through the stages here. This stuff is pretty complicated. I mean, honestly, I'm hopeful that he can get this resolved. I was in fact, you know, happy to see the resolution that was announced last night could have spun off in a really horrible direction that I don't think anyone wants. And so, you know, I, I'm willing to give the guy credit if he can get a resolution. But history and certainly anyone who's worked in the, in this area knows it's not going to, you know, it's not going to just end. Hey guys, it's summertime and we're all getting out and enjoying ourselves a little bit more. But if you're like me, you don't want to be drinking your calories or waking up with a hangover. And that is especially true because I've got to get up the next day and deal with my kids. I love them, I love them, I love my kids. But I also want to be perfect for our bulwark takes. So that's why I've been reaching out for Sol's out of Office gummies instead. They're the perfect little lift to keep the good vibes going and they give me that kind of light social buzz, but without the hangover. Sole is a wellness brand that believes feeling good should be fun and easy Soul specializes in delicious hemp derived THC and CBD products that are designed to boost your mood and help you unwind. Their best selling out of office gummies were designed to provide a mild relaxing buzz. Also to enhance your creativity and frankly, to give you a little relaxation. The out of office gummies come in four different strengths so you can find the perfect dose that matches your vibe. You can choose from a gentle microdose, a perfect buzz, a noticeable high, or a fully lit experience, which we call the Tim Miller special. Seoul has so many other amazing wellness products with or without thc, including a variety of gummies and capsules that can improve your sleep, help you with your stress, alleviate some pain, or just help you focus. So bring on the good vibes and treat yourself to Seoul today. Right now, Seoul is offering our audience 30% off your entire order. Yeah, you heard that right. You're not high on Soul's gummies right now. 30% off your entire order. Go to get sold.com use the code bulwark takes. That's get sold.com promo code bulwark takes for 30% off. You'll love it.
- [05:46]
Tim Miller
It's also not up to just really one man. I mean, right. You know, BB is at certain level has agency the Iranians might look. I mean there's a great Atlantic article over the weekend about how like there are basically multiple different groups of Iranians who are considering cooing the Ayatollah. So like with a wide range of views from kind of more moder, more, more interested in working with the other Gulf countries to more radical. So, you know, I mean, like there are a lot of other players at the table here.
- [06:14]
Sam Stein
You know, he thinks he can just will his way. He being Trump thinks he can just will his way through this and shoot.
- [06:20]
Tim Miller
His way through it and just say I look. I mean he made the, you know, I do think he believes his own powers to make his own reality. You know, you saw that with the 2020 election and he's live like literally last night as Iran has a rare missile getting through the Iron Dome, crushing, you know, a building in southern Israel. Trump simultaneously. I was like watching this live on social media is bleeding. We couldn't have made today's deal happen without the talent and the courage. Like he's just out there doing like we did it. We're the best. At the same time as like people are dying. So, you know, look, I don't. Who knows, Barack Ravid is reporting that Trump did have some impact in getting Bibi to dial back the counterattack that was happening this morning.
- [07:02]
Sam Stein
So on that for a second, because that's kind of interesting in the very sort of narrow sense here we have a president who is putting the pressure of the US Government on Israel to not take an offensive measure of war. Right?
- [07:12]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [07:13]
Sam Stein
And JVL was rightfully noting in our slacks, like, when Biden did this, when he encouraged the Israelis to not use, you know, massive bombs on, on in Gaza, it was considered an act of utter betrayal. Now, no one's ever like, said, ah, we have, you know, there's going to be. There's got to be consistency here because everyone knows that that's never going to be the case. But it is notable that Trump gets away with, you know, telling this morning, saying the Israelis up that they were more in the wrong than the Iranians and then demanding that Netanyahu hold back. No one, no other president could get away with that stuff.
- [07:48]
Tim Miller
Yeah, it is notable. 2 thoughts on this one. One of my, One of my Zionist friends, I was just monitoring his social media today and was like, what in the is this? Like, why is it. Fuck Israel and Iran. Why is it Iran is great and Israel is great? Why is he telling us what not to do when it's us at risk? So, you know, I do think that sometimes the perception from Israel is a little different than the perception from, you know, the American politics of it all.
- [08:13]
Sam Stein
Sure.
- [08:13]
Tim Miller
My other observation is, Bibi, like, some of this might be just working. Trump, like, nothing against Barack. Ravid has been an amazing reporter on all this. And, like, you know, you can report what you're told in this situation. If you're Israel, you just dropped some missiles on Iran and you see Trump is cussing. It's easy to be like, well, we're going to do more, but we kind of, we dialed it back a little bit. You know, like, there's, like, there's, there's multiple things happening here. There's public facing, PR and kayfabe, and then there's working Trump and trying to manage Trump, which is, you know, something that Israel's done to quite pretty well.
- [08:47]
Sam Stein
Right. No, and I get that. And I understand, I understand the desire to do that. Do you think that Bibi's worried that he might offend Trump too much to the point where Trump actually breaks the US Israel alliance in a meaningful way?
- [09:02]
Tim Miller
No.
- [09:02]
Sam Stein
No, I didn't think so.
- [09:04]
Tim Miller
I'm not.
- [09:04]
Sam Stein
I think the big question mark for me is what happens? Because, look, we. Again, like, we're all waiting to see how serious this ceasefire is and I think if history is a guide, it's more likely than not that there's going to be more skirmishes. Right. And I think we need to figure out what happens if, for instance, the Iranians do launch another missile. Like, is Bibi going to hold back because Trump does. Trump wants his 12 day war not to become a 15 day war. @ what point does that break? And I guess I'm also surprised again to go back to it, that Trump was so adamantly angry at the Israeli side of the equation, which is not usually how domestic political consumption happens here. Usually it is. You know, you're more likely to get angry at the, at the Iranian side of the equation here.
- [09:53]
Tim Miller
All right, I've got to run. And so we'll have more chances to do other videos on this. But as we're saying, it's speaking of kind of a Persian Jew style deep seated war. Here's Mark Levin, who has been pro Trump's actions in Israel, going after Steve Bannon, has been criticizing him. Steve Bannon, a disgusting fraud. Nobody gives a shit about what you, a confessed and convicted fraudster, has to say. You're a liar. You're a decertified, disgusting fraud. So I think the internal battle in MAGA will continue as, as the external events unfold. Sam. Sam Stein, thank you so much.