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Trump & Hegseth Are Increasingly Delusional on Hormuz; TACO Incoming? | Morning Chaser
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- [00:01]
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- [00:30]
Tyler Reddick
Tyler redick here from 2311 Racing. Another checkered flag for the books. Time to celebrate with Chumba. Jump in@chumbacasino.com let's Chumba.
- [00:40]
Bill Kristol
No purchase necessary BTW group void work prohibited by law. CTNC21+ sponsored by Chumba Casino.
- [00:45]
Andrew Egger
All right, I think we are live. Hello, everybody out there in TV land. My name is Andrew Egger with the Bulwark. Welcome to Morning Chaser. I am joined as always on Tuesday mornings by my Morning Shots co author Bill Kristol, editor at large of the Bulwark. We write the Morning Shots newsletter. We did another one this morning, as we do every morning, Monday through Friday, we're here to talk a little bit about it, a little bit about some other stuff that's going on in the world too. Bill, are you sick yet of talking about the Strait of Hormuz, of talking about what's going on in the world of oil and all the bad things that are piling up around us? Or is this the sort of thing that gets you out of bed in the morning?
- [01:22]
Bill Kristol
I like Andrew. Good to be with you. First of all, I like your retro TV land. Shouldn't you be saying video land or YouTube land or podcast land or substack land or something? But anyway, not to criticize that stuff. It's okay if you want to cater to, but you're too young to have grown. Well, I guess even you grew up in TV land, right?
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Andrew Egger
Yeah, I mean, people. People watch this stuff on their. On their TV shows.
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Bill Kristol
Well, that's a good point.
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Andrew Egger
That shows how out of touch it's totally dislocated. Right? Nobody has any idea who's coming where from, where or where it's being received, where it's being sent from. You're at home. I'm in the Bulwark office right now. I mean, people might see some contractors over my shoulder who are around, you know, putting TVs up on walls and doing things that you need in a modern office space. But, yes, you're correct. I should have said out in the modern world of streaming.
- [02:07]
Bill Kristol
No, but you're right to correct my correction because. And it fits into the topic of the day, which is the Trump administration is a little confused about what world we're in, I would say. No, I don't get. I mean, look, it's important, obviously, it's very important. I do think it's the biggest decision of Trump's second term. Probably, I guess maybe going with the mass deportation agenda might compete with that. But I think Iran will end up having even bigger. But it will have major, major consequences on Trump's presidency, but more importantly on US Foreign policy and on the world and the global economy and global geopolitics. So it's a big moment. And I argue this morning that Trump is likely to. I've been arguing this for three, four weeks. I've gone back and forth, actually, because I've never. It's not certainly uncertain with Trump and uncertain in general, but I think he's backing off. I think he's heading for the exits on Iran. But I already got a text from a good friend saying, you're probably right, but very important to emphasize. And I do think I make this point quickly, at least in the newsletter. It's still a bad outcome, and I think it is a less bad outcome than escalating to ground troops. But either way, I think the whole thing has been a fiasco. But you've been focusing a lot on the economic side of it, the geo, what's happening and how much of that already is. Whatever he does now is already built in. So maybe talk about that a little bit. Yes, unless you're too tired. Unless you're too tired of Iran to talk about it. I don't know.
- [03:24]
Andrew Egger
No, I'm a sicko for this stuff. I mean, I'm very fascinated by this story. Let me set the table a little bit here for, like, what kind of the up to the minute thing is, because in some respects it's the same story it's been all along. Right. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. And that's horrible for everybody, but I think that we are really beginning to see, um, in it, you know, for a long time it was, the story was the Strait of Hormuz is closed. And it's horrible for everybody, but people are kind of hoping there'll be a relatively prompt resolution. And so everyone's just sort of holding their cards and trying to brace in the short term, and we'll see what happens next. And I think we're starting to see a page turn on that to kind of a second act in all of this. So let me just, let me just put up a couple headlines here. This is from Bloomberg A couple of days ago. The Strait of Hormuz oil shock is, is now heading west. Obviously, the biggest problem so far in the immediate term was in Asia, in China especially, where a lot of this oil was bound. Oil does not come out of the Strait of Hormuz to go to the United States of America. So all of the issues that we were feeling in terms of higher gas prices and all of that, that was all very indirect, right? But the direction shock is already hitting in Asia. They're seeing not only high prices, but actually shortages, which are sort of a different sort of beast altogether. And energy analysts are starting to warn that is not going to remain purely an Asian problem either. We've seen these upticks in the prices of oil. They're north of $100 a barrel now. You're setting new highs again this morning. Analysts are warning that could be nothing. We could see $200 a barrel before the end all of this. So we're very, very early days as far as the actual strait itself is concerned. We've got some numbers on that too. You know, there's, there's, there's a, let's throw this up. Subtle rise in non Iranian trade through Hormuz. You know, we're starting to see a very few vessels that are not Iranian vessels moving through a handful every day. You know, as Iran sets up basically a permitting system, a toll booth, a checkpoint to basically say, you know, pull up to us, give us a little bit of money, a couple million dollars, and we'll let you through. And we won't try to drive a speedboat into the side of your vessel or hit you with a drone. So there's a little bit of this, a little bit of a tick northward of this. But go to the third slide here. This is from Gulf business. I mean, it is still a trickle of a trickle compared to what we were seeing before. I'll just read here. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a near standstill with 181 vessels recorded passing through the waterway between March 1 and March 30 of 2026, down from about 138 a day as the preexisting status quo. So like I said, a fraction of a fraction here. And this is after weeks and weeks of war. Right? So you've got the President weighing In on this, you've got Secretary Hegseth who just did a briefing about an hour ago, weighing in on some of this too. I was not particularly reassured by any of this. So let's, let's hit what Hegseth had to say this morning about the Strait Hormuz.
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Pete Hegseth
There are many more vessels flowing through today than there were, as the President has arranged. The President's been clear to Iran, open it for business or we have options, and we certainly do. And when you look at what the chairman laid out with the Navy, with the Navy industrial base, with coastal Cruise missiles, with UAVs with counter mine capabilities, we've been focused from the beginning on attritting and defeating those capabilities and limiting their options.
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Andrew Egger
Yeah. And I could go through a critique of like, why that's kind of a crazy way of looking at it, but I actually don't have to do that because the President himself in a cabinet meeting on Tuesday basically laid out why this sort of, you know, this sort of military only strategy to the Strait of we're just going to keep bombing them and bombing them and bombing them until the Strait is magically reopened. Doesn't really work. It's not actually effective when it comes to achieving the objectives of getting these companies to feel comfortable and safe moving their ships through the Strait again. So let's play Trump from the Cabinet meeting on Tuesday.
- [07:28]
Bill Kristol
The problem with the straits is this. Let's say we do a great job. We say we got 99%. 1% is unacceptable because 1% is a missile going into the hull of a ship that cost a billion dollars. Right. So 1% is we can't, if we do a 99% decimation, that's no good.
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Andrew Egger
Yeah, I guess I said Tuesday. That was from last week. I can't remember now off the top of my head, if I'm actually correctly saying it was Tuesday, that was the cabinet meeting last week. But that's the whole problem, right? I mean, that's, that's the problem that they're basically stuck with is, is they, they continue to, to trumpet their military capabilities here, but meanwhile, Iran, as it has all along, is exercising complete economic control of the Strait. And it seems to have no interest in, in letting that number of ships tick up. I mean, and meanwhile, you have the strange split screen of Trump viewing each individual ship that passes through as like a, an objective achieved. Right. I mean, like Iran lets six ships through on a day and Trump calls it like this amazing prize that they gave us, or they let eight ships through the Next day, and Pete Hegseth gets up there, you know, look what the President has arranged, as he said in that clip. I mean, it's the disconnect between the actual facts on the ground and the actual crisis that is engendering in real time right now. And this insane sort of lackadaisical, totally divorce from reality way that the administration talks about it is, I mean it's, it's unbelievable. It's striking. So you, Bill, you wrote a little bit about this today. I mean, I think you're correct. Like the status quo cannot continue like this. But I mean, what do you see? What are kind of the tea leaves that you're reading as, as far as you know, where, where this goes from here with, with this administration's rhetoric?
- [09:09]
Bill Kristol
I mean, you're right about the magnitude of it. People haven't maybe quite internalized that yet. I mean, if you go from 20% of the world's oil flowing through there to I guess, what is it, 1 or 2% now, really? Right. I mean it's a massive drop. And then. So how do you make up for that remaining 17 to 18%? Well, you get, obviously you can increase the production elsewhere and ship some stuff around various other, in other ways, but that's a big hit for oil. But also petrochemicals and so forth, things that are essential to so much of the world's economy, basically. And people are saying it's the biggest supply side shock in modern recent times. And I do have the sense from talking to a few people and reading a little bit of stuff here that it's as you say, first week or two, very unfortunate, pay a little price, but kind of big disruption, but manageable. A month serious effects. And clearly the markets are beginning to, are seeing those six weeks, eight weeks, you start hitting some cliffs. Their businesses have 30 days, 45 days of backup off of what they need. Taiwan supposedly has what it needs for its chips for another 10, 12 days. They don't have two or three months often of backup. And if some of this stuff isn't coming through, it's not coming through. Or if the price is doubling or tripling or quadrupling or whatever. And so the real world effects, I think it's not just incremental, it's not just it gets 1 or 2% worse each day, it sort of gets worse gradually and then suddenly you start hitting some cliffs. So I think that's the sense of urgency. That sense of urgency has led trumpet times and hegseth, I guess fairly, seemingly fairly often and certainly Plenty of foreign policy analysts to say, well, I guess he has to go in with troops and, you know, sort of really resolve the situation. The trouble is, every military person I happen to talk to some this weekend who has looked at this seriously thinks the ground troops don't, can't resolve the situation. I mean, unless you had 100,000 troops and you were going to go in and basically conquer whole chunks of Iran and so forth. If you don't have regime change and if you don't have a large number of ground troops, really large number of ground troops, they can lob stuff at wherever we put our troop Marines or soldiers on the shore of the strait or Carg island or whatever. We can escort some ships through, probably we can if we really want to devote big resources, big parts of the Navy to doing that. But then you're escorting a handful of ships through. Right? And Trump's correct remains. It doesn't solve the problem of regular merchant marine ships not being, not insurance, not paying for, not willing to insure trips to go through. So it really has hit, I think, something of a crisis point, which means it's either escalation or kind of finding a face saving or not so face saving deal by Trump. I do think he's been signaling. I mean, there's so much bluster, there's so many contradictions. There's so much just craziness and everything he says and does, some of it, maybe you want to give him a little credit, intentional misdirection or bluffing, but a lot of it just Trump being Trump, that who knows? I mean, I think it's 60, 40 or 2 to 1 maybe that he now is basically in a head for the exits, find a way out Mode. But it's 2 to 1, not 10 to 1. So I wouldn't be wildly surprised if we have ground troops landing in two days or something. I think that scenario is so bad that the kind of trying to find a way out Iran won't quite open the strait right away. There'll be negotiations, third parties, Pakistanis, Oman, Japan. There'll be implicit bribes maybe to the Iranian regime to step up. And maybe two, three weeks from now, Trump will be able to say, see, it is kind of opened up and we damaged Iran's ballistic missile and other offensive capabilities. It took a little hit to the economy, but now the strait's back open and all as well. Just final point of is, I would say all is not well. I mean, Iran will have established the principle that it can close the strait and not pay a Massive price. It's already paid a big price, obviously, in terms of all the bombing, but not pay the fundamental price of regime change or anything. Very, very bad precedent to take to make, to establish. I think, of course, our allies are all just can't believe we've done this with no consultation. And so recklessly and foolishly the Gulf states are all sitting around thinking they go in halfway against our wishes and then they don't finish the job against our wishes. Is this really the kind of ally we want? So I think it's a big disaster for US Foreign policy and really for the world in terms of global stability and not good for the economy either. Having said all that, I guess my current thought, speculation, I think I said in the newsletter, is that Trump is looking to head for the exits rather than escalate.
- [13:44]
Andrew Egger
Yeah. And there are obviously he is a famously mercurial guy. He could turn on a dime and move in a different direction. But I totally agree with you right now, the tea leaves are 100% pointing in that direction. One of the ways that you can see this, I'm going to jump ahead a little bit in the elements, but one of the ways that you can see this is in the ways that they're talking about regime change, the way that in just the last couple of days, the president and then especially Pete Hegseth this morning have basically said, well, if you really squint, if you think about it, you know, we killed all the leaders who were running things before. We have different leaders now. We have every confidence that these leaders are going to be easier to work with. So regime change has basically already happened. Let's, let's, let's real quick play a clip of Pete Hegseth again just about an hour ago saying that at the press conference this morning, Iranian regime should
- [14:30]
Pete Hegseth
know that by now this new regime, because regime change has occurred, should be wiser than the last President Trump will make a deal. He is willing and the terms of the deal are known to them. If Iran is not willing, then the United States War Department will continue with even more intensity.
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Andrew Egger
Yeah. And I want to play one more clip from Pete here in a second just to really kind of highlight how just sort of silly. I mean, this, this whole business of like, oh, you won't make a deal now. I guess we'll hit you harder tomorrow. We'll see if you'll, we'll see if you'll be willing to make a deal the next day. I mean, like, they've been playing this, this public strategy now for a Month. Right. They have indeed succeeded in taking out a bunch of Iranian leaders. But the ones, I mean, the idea that the ones who are now in there, we have every confidence they're going to be more willing to negotiate. I mean, the strait was open before the war and now it's closed. It's the new leaders who are the ones who are continuing to maintain this situation. And now we would need to see it as a giant diplomatic victory just to take the straight back to the preexisting status quo. But just to kind of put a fine point on this, I just wanted to play a quick compilation of, of how Hegseth has been talking about this. We've got clips from March 13 and March 19 and then again from today, all of which are him basically saying the same thing of, of, you know, we are, we are just, you know, beating the shit out of them militarily, and it's weakening their position. And any second now, they're going to have to, you know, cry uncle and give us what we want. But let's just play that, that, that set of clips real quick.
- [16:03]
Pete Hegseth
It is unshakable, our options maximized and our capabilities still building. We're going up, they're going down. In fact, today will be yet again the highest volume of strikes that America has put over the skies of Iran and Tehran. The number of sorties, number of bomber pulses, the highest yet ramping up and only up and again. Today will be the largest, largest strike package yet, just like yesterday was. As I've said from day one, our capabilities continue to build. Iran's continue to degrade on the battlefield because of the latitude the President has given us.
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Andrew Egger
Now, this is true.
- [16:44]
Pete Hegseth
American firepower is only increasing. Iran's decreasing. We have more and more options and they have less. Just one month in only one month, we set the terms. The upcoming days will be decisive. Iran knows that. And there's almost nothing they can militarily do about it.
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Andrew Egger
Almost nothing they can militarily do about it, but a lot they can do about it economically, which has been the problem the entire time. I don't know, Bill, is there any way to read this other than just, I mean, throwing good missiles after bad?
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Bill Kristol
Yeah, they're not even, I mean, they looked like they were more disabled militarily about 10 days in. And remember, their numbers were going way down in terms of missiles and also drones, drone attacks. And then they started, it turns out they had some stuff in reserve and they kind of knew what they were doing and maybe they got some targeting help from the Russians and suddenly they're destroying an AWACS that we had at the Saudi air base that cost $700 million and you know, with quite a precise hit. And so yeah, I mean Hex, that's just I mean but these sounds to me like a guy I hadn't I wrote the morning shots before his 8am thing pretty much this morning. I mean the pathetic backpedaling. So they started off for regime change. That's gone. Now they've but they can't admit they
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Andrew Egger
didn't I don't know what you're talking about. The regime change. It's happened.
- [18:02]
Bill Kristol
I mean that is so laughable when it's literally the kid of the previous you know, you know who's in there and the irgc. I mean I'm I'm not shedding any tears for the people who've gone. But anyway, so yes, regime change happened. That's the kind of a pathetic attempt to rationalize it. The nukes have receded some in the talking points. That was very clear yesterday in both Caroline Levitt in the White House and Rubio. And now it's sort of vague stuff about, you know, we sort of making sure they don't acquire nuclear capacity in the future. I don't think this is there was that stuff over the weekend going in to get the nuclear material again. This could all reverse and maybe we'll doing that tomorrow. And it's all a big misdirection. But I think on nukes they're backing off into something much more the standard kind of US Position which is we won't allow them to get a nuclear weapon and they'll say we don't want nuclear weapon, we just don't do some research. And then we'll have the usual maybe there'll be some more bombing six or 18 months from now or something. But and then on the Strait they move from back even from the three week one week ago position, which was we're determined to reopen the Strait. There's no can't have any agreement. That's a core demand of ours. Of course, it's only closed because we started this all. But anyway and now it's all sort of literally yesterday Rubio said and I guess certainly Rubio said and I guess Levitt said too well, we're going to get we certainly want it to be reopened and kind of more of a thing for the Europeans and maybe after, you know, it'll happen in the next few weeks. I think one of them said so again, I think that's actually could well be true. But again, the degree to which the foreign policy professionals once talks to if they bracket the fact that Trump is president, which for me is one of the core reasons we should not be for escalation and we should be glad honestly if he heads for the exits because he's so irresponsible and reckless. You don't want more war. But in a normal world this is such a defeat for the US to go to start this war and join Israel and starting this war at this time and then end up retreating without even a iron commitment, a real commitment or real evidence of opening this trade. Now maybe he'll get that maybe Iran has been pummeled a lot and they'll decide, you know what, we're going to open it anyway probably in two, three, four weeks. We have our own interest in doing so. We're not going to play this game forever. And so we'll open it tomorrow and have 40 ships go. I mean it's possible that Trump will like a little, they might decide to be a little give Trump a little more of a face saving victory though that's not been their general, general mode of the Iranian, of the same Iranian regime which Trump is leaving in power. So a pretty humiliating thing all in all. I, I guess that's what strikes me. And again, we haven't seen, I think this is your point. We haven't seen the all the economic effects yet. And I kind of think even if the thing stops tomorrow, I think those go up, those can continue for there'll be some of the markets will look forward and sort of start to heave a bit of a sigh of relief. But those effects are not going away right away. You know, $4 gasoline and stuff. So pretty disastrous for Trump, don't you think, politically too? I mean, I don't think these new low polls are totally unconnected from this war which has been going a month. I mean so there's enough time for people to assimilate that it's been happening right?
- [21:05]
Bleacher Report Announcer
The Bleacher Report app is your destination for sports right now. The NBA is heating up, March Madness is here and MLB is almost back. Every day there's a new headline, a new highlight, a new moment you've got to see for yourself. That's why I stay locked in with the Bleacher Report app. For me, it's about staying connected to my sports. I can follow the teams I care about, get real time, scores, breaking news and highlights all in one place. Download the Bleacher Report app today so you Never miss a moment.
- [21:34]
Tyler Reddick
Tyler redick here from 2311 racing another checkered flag for the books. Time to celebrate with Chumba. Jump in@chumbacasino.com let's Chumba.
- [21:44]
Bill Kristol
No purchase necessary BTW Group void where prohibited by law. CTNC21+ sponsored by Chumba Casino.
- [21:50]
Andrew Egger
Well, he is, I mean, he is just objectively hitting new record lows, at least for his second term in terms of polls. But I think it's interesting that you bring up his, his sort of domestic messaging on this. Right. Because I wanted to put up a truth post that he sent out just this morning, which honestly, if anything, it makes me more worried about exactly the things you're talking about, that he doesn't know how to reopen the strait and he's already sort of seeding an argument for how to survive this domestically by not solving this crisis that's coming, but trying to figure out some other person to blame for this crisis that's coming. So I'll read this. This is just from this morning. All of those countries that can't get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran. I have a suggestion for you. Number one, buy from the U.S. we have plenty. And number two, build up some delayed courage, go to the straight and just take it. You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself. The USA won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us. Iran has been essentially more or less decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil. President Donald J. Trump, I mean, if you take him at his word there, which is always risky with this guy. But if you're just taking the plain things that he's saying at his word, it's essentially a renunciation of, of culpability for the, for the Strait of Hormuz as it exists, as it's going to exist in the future. In theory. We're still under this like twice extended ultimatum where the President has said, Iran, you better reopen it and get it back to normal or else, or else the big guns are coming. This is a totally different character of thing where he's essentially, I mean, it's, it's, and it's, there are so many different Trump pathologies that come into this. We've talked before about his sort of magical thinking of if you look at it a certain way, the straight being closed is actually good for the United States because we are an energy exporter. And you know, this is good for our oil companies here and we can sell oil to, you know, around the world and, and reap a big, reap a big windfall. Like that's one part of his thinking here. But the other part of the thing here is this is just not the, these are just not the, the places your mind goes. If you are confident that you're going to be able to reopen the strait as you are supposedly projecting power against Iran in order to do and to basically say, well, look, you know, six months from now, gas is $6 a gallon as people are going to the polls. I mean, there is no good case that he can make here. But apparently the case he intends to make here is, look, don't blame me, blame the UK if they'd come in, it's their oil. We were only there to kind of help out, notwithstanding the fact that we started the war. But look, I mean, if they wanted an open strait, they should have helped us out with it. They should be doing it today. Blame the UK or blame Germany or something like that. I mean, this is the explicit case that he's making. It boggles my mind.
- [24:33]
Bill Kristol
No, it is mind boggling. You're absolutely right to really emphasize this because it's mind boggling from a broader geopolitical, geostrategic point of view. For 50 years it's been US doctrine, core doctrine, and we've fought wars to enforce it, especially in 1990-91, the first Gulf War that we have an the stability in the Gulf and the free flow of oil and of energy from the Gulf in defending friendly regimes in the Gulf and not letting enemy regimes, whatever setbacks we've had, not giving them clear victories if possible. I mean, this has been kind of considered a core US Interest. Now Trump doesn't seem to think it is, probably doesn't really think it is. Some of his people don't because they are America. They'd like to be isolationists of some kind or other. But I think, I think you're absolutely right to point to his wish to have someone to kick around, to blame. And it's going to be the allies who are soon going to be our ex allies. But you know what I really think he's laying the groundwork for, and you can see this in some of the posts over the last two, three weeks, getting out of NATO. Suddenly he got obsessed with NATO, didn't you? Untrue. Social and all. NATO is not an issue. I mean this was never going to be a NATO war. We didn't ask that it be a NATO war. NATO didn't ask that they be involved. It was just, it was like many other wars we fought that were not NATO wars. It was our own action, as June was and as Venezuela was. And fine, better or worse. But I do think this is the. What Trump will try to turn this into is I'm the guy who pummeled Iran, and I'm the guy who got us out of this terrible alliance, being dragged into all these things by these weak knee countries who just wanted us to help them and never helped us. I feel like that's where we're going rhetorically over the next several months. And it will be an acceleration of the kind of destruction of the post World War II order and alliance structure that Trump has been on a path to destroying for 14, 15 months now. But I think this really accelerates it. I think in Asia, Japan looks at this and thinks what. I mean, we get so much of our oil through there and we have this close relationship and no one's talked. Trump is just making these decisions without consulting us. And maybe what we think that. I just think the degree to which this is a big blow to the whole geopolitical, geostrategic and geo economic order point. You've made a point JVL's made. Right. I mean, it's not like these things aren't connected. Why is the US Dollar the reserve currency? Well, because we're also the core, the anchor of the defense system and of the geopolitical system. So I think it's bad. But he's got us into this himself, into this terrible bind, and there's no. I mean, he can get lucky. Anything could happen. We could land some troops and suddenly the regime could collapse, who knows? But it is not a good moment for the United States of America.
- [27:13]
Andrew Egger
Yeah, Yeah. I mean, barring some sort of real change like that, I mean, that would totally scramble the playbook. Who knows, who knows how. How Trump might benefit economically or, you know, how it would be hard to game out what would happen in a world where suddenly, you know, Trump's demands are being met and the regime is. Is just sort of acquiescing, obviously, at baseline. We can say it would be good for the global economy, it would be good for Trump politically. We should all breathe a sigh of relief, honestly, if that happens. Because barring that, who the heck knows how the Strait of Hormuz is ever going to get reopened? I mean, I think barring that situation, if we're in this world where that's not happening and where Trump is sort of trying to message this explanation for why this strait has stayed closed and the energy shock has gone on and all these things. I mean, I think he's insane if he thinks that this, this will actually help him politically, if it will save him politically, this sort of blame shifting thing. I mean, people are going to blame the President for the fact that he started this war and then oil prices went berserk in perpetuity. If that is indeed what happens, he will not get off the hook for that. But the fact that he is trying to make this argument means that not only will we have this energy shock, but as you say, I mean, the other awful consequences that are going to pile up as he attempts to wriggle out of the political consequences of this oil shock that he himself launched are also going to be pretty catastrophic. It's all just, just the more you talk about this stupid, remarkable, insane war. I mean, you can talk until you're blue in the face and just not run out of depressing things to point out and depressing things to say about it. I just want to do one more second on Hegseth just because it is obvious that they have sort of backed themselves into a corner here. And really all that is left in terms of Hegseth to sell this conflict is to do the stuff he's been doing all along where he gets really dewy about, you know, our great troops and how noble and capable and good they are, and then sort of seasons it all with, you know, Christian language about God being on our side in this conflict. So let's just get a little taste of Hegset this morning on that front before we leave the Iran talk behind.
- [29:20]
Pete Hegseth
Standing here this morning in this briefing room, in my mind's eye, I'm actually looking out at the groups I met this weekend. The pilots, the logisticians, the intel analysts, the targeters, the sustainers, the flight crews, the air defenders, the base security, those maintainers who we walked up at sunset with the chill and the air on the flight line. May God watch over all of them each day and each night. May his almighty and eternal arms of providence stretch over them and protect them and bring them peace. In the name of Jesus Christ and Amen.
- [30:07]
Andrew Egger
I mean, there you go. That's basically the way they're selling the war as a vibe. I'm a Christian. I pray for our country. I pray for the safety of our troops abroad. I have no problem with that. But I do have a bit of a problem with the secretary. I mean, with the fact that they are the ones who put these people in this war. I mean, like, you know, we're achieving military successes, but, but, but they're the ones who pulled the trigger on this conflict that, that seems to have no easy exit or no good exit. And it's just, you just have to kind of, I mean, what do you even say? Do you have anything to say?
- [30:41]
Bill Kristol
No, that was well said.
- [30:43]
Andrew Egger
I don't know. It's, it's really grim. It's really grim. I don't know. Should we, should we do a couple minutes? We were going to do a whole bit on, on the Midwest and politics and you get into the crunchy. I wrote for more. We haven't even talked for a second about what I wrote about in Morning Shots this morning, which is this guy who's running for governor in Iowa as a Democrat, Rob Sand. He's the state auditor right now. And he's, you know, Democrats see him as maybe this guy who can sort of pick the lock of Iowa, even though it's kind of a red state now, win the governorship there on sort of this populist accountability platform. I don't know. Should we do that? Bill, do you want to do five minutes on Iowa and Kansas, or should we jump straight to the chaser here?
- [31:25]
Bill Kristol
Maybe go to the chaser. People should read Andrew's excellent piece on this Democratic governor candidate in Iowa. I think it's a similar Democratic Senate candidate in Kansas who also has a real chance. I just would want to say my 20 seconds would be that I think a lot of states are in play this fall as the wave gets bigger. And I think especially those Midwestern states where farmers have paid the farm economy's paid a huge price for tariffs and now compounded, of course, by the fertilizer and other issues caused by the war. So, but I think that's a, that was an interesting piece. People should read it. But let's go to. I know you're.
- [31:55]
Andrew Egger
Yeah. And I.
- [31:56]
Bill Kristol
You love, and you love, you love the Trump, the Trump Presidential Library. I know you're moved by the architect.
- [32:01]
Andrew Egger
Yeah. The last thing I'll say about Rob sand is that I did a video interview for the Bulwark with him in October or November, I think, of last year. So if you're interested in hearing more about him or seeing what he's up to, you can go watch that. Just, you know, Rob sand, like the stuff that's on the seashore. Andrew Egger, the Bulwarks. Type it into YouTube when you're done Here, don't leave yet because we do have one more thing. And this is just, you know, this is just empty calories. But we got, we got, we got. Why not, why not roll around in the grotesqueries of it all a little bit more? Eric Trump has been a little bit out of the limelight recently. You know, he's off, he's running the President's crypto businesses. He's, he's, you know, lining the Trump family's pockets with, with, with, you know, petro, petro barons, you know, crypto money. I'm curious, I'm a little curious what's been going on with all of that as, as, you know, we have suddenly choked off the sort of aorta going to the UAE and Qatar and all these countries. But anyway, Eric Trump has also, in addition to all those sorts of things, apparently been working on Donald Trump's presidential library behind the scenes. And he tweeted out this sort of sizzle reel of the Donald J. Trump Presidential Library and Museum, which apparently is going up in Miami, like downtown Miami, according to Eric. So let's just see what they've been up to. Let's just play a little bit of the video. We'll see what we think. Nice little gold statue of Trump up on the stage. Isn't that nice? What do you think, Bill? What do you make of the sizzle reel?
- [34:15]
Bill Kristol
It'll be good when he's not in the real level office and I guess if and when he's sitting in his fake Oval Office in the Trump Tower in Miami, that they're going to make. I love the idea of having his name on it, the whole thing. I mean, these presidential libraries have been getting a little worse, honestly, over the years in terms of sort of more vulgar boasting than the old fashioned ones, which really were libraries. I mean, they sort of, you go into some of the old ones, I've been a couple of them. And it's like, you know, sort of some, someone greets you and asks, what papers are you looking for? You know, I mean, they've always had a little more of that and then it's got. But Trump, of course, is taking it to a new level of boastfulness and vulgarity.
- [34:52]
Andrew Egger
Yeah, I've actually, I don't think I've ever been to anybody's presidential library. So I kind of wanted to ask you, like, like this strangeness of the sort of like replica rooms and things like, like that was obviously the Oval Office, but then also apparently they're recreating Trump's whole New ballroom, like behind plate glass. As, like a, as like a. You know, obviously he himself sees that as like one of his biggest contributions to, to the health of the nation. So I guess I'm not surprised at that level that he put it in there. But I mean, that sort of like replicas of parts of the Oval Office. Is that ordinary? Is that normal?
- [35:23]
Bill Kristol
I don't know where it began. I mean, I certainly, with Reagan, I think there's. There's the fake Oval Office there and there. But it's sort of nice. I mean, some of it you can defend. I mean, kids go and they scale. This is what it's like. And it's to scale. And it's, you know, not a lot of. Not everyone gets to go to Washington and go on a White House tour, obviously. So Washington, not, you know, but I think generally. And they have the plane there. So replica, I guess maybe was the older Air Force One was retired. I can't remember. But anyway, I do think it's gotten a little out of hand. But Trump is always. We'll take it to another level also. These things usually are. People do wait until they leave office and then they find a location. It's why it takes so long. Obama left office in 2017. Right. And aren't they opening his library later this year? So nine years later, so they sort of have the decency to focus on being president. But someone there was that. Well, we had this in morning shots yesterday. You found that tweet. I don't remember the name of the person whose tweet it was, but that Trump is clearly. When he was showing on the plane, I guess he was showing all the reporters quite detailed accounts of the ballroom. Right. And the Corinthian columns and this and that. It's clear he's been focused much more on the details of his stupid and annoying and bad ballroom than on actually learning about what's happening in the war. You know, for the war. He depends on Fox News, the ballroom. He's willing to spend hours going over in detail. You know, truly wonderful.
- [36:44]
Andrew Egger
Wonderful. No, it's amazing. Would you believe I've actually never been on a White House tour either? I've never been in the Oval Office. I am our White House correspondent. I have a White House press pass. But the only room in that whole space I've ever been in is the horrible little briefing room that you can get in.
- [36:57]
Bill Kristol
I'll call Carolyn. I'll call Carolyn Levitt and get you the Oval Office.
- [37:01]
Andrew Egger
I've never tried. I've never tried I've never.
- [37:02]
Bill Kristol
No, you should ask. I should say, you should call up and just say, look, I've never been there and I'd really like to spend some time with the president there and they'll let you in, you know.
- [37:09]
Andrew Egger
Right, right. Well, that would be really nice of them. I mean, my main takeaway of the whole thing is, I mean, it's just a Trump building. Right. It's like the Trump Tower.
- [37:16]
Bill Kristol
Yeah.
- [37:16]
Andrew Egger
Miami. But it's, you know, it's the same guy, same as he ever was. Right. He's the guy who puts his name really big on big buildings. He's put his name really big on the White House. He's put his name really big on the United States of America. And he is, I guess, correct. I mean, it looks like a pretty good, it looks like a pretty good representation of what this presidency has been all about. In that sense. You get Trump way up on the top in giant letters and then about halfway down, much smaller, you get a little American flag. Just to remind everybody that's what it is. So I don't know. Those are my thoughts. Hope you guys all liked the Presidential Library tour sizzle reel as much as we did. I don't know exactly how they're going to fit that ballroom in the skyscraper, but whatever, we'll figure that out. All of that is to be determined. I guess we can leave it there. There. I should have said this halfway through and I never did. But I'm Andrew Egger. I said it at the top. I'm Andrew Egger, White House correspondent for the Bulwark. Bill Kristol, editor at large of the Bulwark. We write the Morning Shots newsletter. And thanks to you all out there who are watching, thanks for subscribing to our YouTube feed. If you don't do that yet, hope you will. Now hope you will. Head over to thebulwork.com and sign up for our Morning Shots newsletter in your inbox every Monday through Friday at or around 9 to 9:30 ish am depending on how fast. Really. I personally have gone. I tend to be the bottleneck. But thanks, Bill, for coming on. Thanks everybody for watching. We'll see you next week and we'll have, I'm sure, a lot more really pleasant things to say about the Strait of Hormuz and America in general. So thanks for watching and we'll see you all next time.
- [38:48]
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