Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes – Trump Is Bleeding Support From Young Men

Date: January 9, 2026
Hosts: Sarah Longwell (Bulwark Publisher), Andrew Egger (Bulwark Staff)

Episode Overview

This episode centers on Donald Trump’s current low polling numbers, particularly his shrinking support among young men—a critical electoral group that helped carry him in the 2024 election. Sarah Longwell and Andrew Egger dive into the drivers behind Trump’s declining approval, the public’s reaction to his Venezuela intervention, and the broader implications for the Republican Party’s future direction.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump's Low Approval Ratings and the Venezuela Intervention

• Polling Context: Trump’s national poll numbers have reached a consistent low—Gallup at 36%, Nate Silver at 42%, with no recent upticks.
• Venezuela Reaction: The public is deeply skeptical of Trump’s military intervention in Venezuela:
  • Only 37% thought it was appropriate for Trump to act alone (02:28).
  • 63% preferred Congressional approval for such action.
  • Only 24% supported US control of Venezuela’s government; 45% disapproved.
  • Overwhelmingly, Americans (94%) believe Venezuelans should choose their own leaders.

“It's nice that a majority of Americans still believe in congressional approval. It'd be great if the administration did.”
— Sarah Longwell, (02:36)

• Historical Comparison: Andrew notes that, unlike the early 2000s wars, which started with broad support, Trump’s Venezuela operation begins with very little (03:56).

• Republican Attitude Shift:

  • YouGov polling revealed a dramatic Republican flip on support for military action in Venezuela, rising from 43% to 78% post-strike, highlighting the malleability of Trump’s base (07:01).

“35% [of Republicans] in three weeks...completely flip.”
— Andrew Egger, (07:29)

2. The Conditional Nature of Trump’s Base

• Trump’s base consistently pivots to support his actions, even when they contradict previous positions (e.g., foreign entanglements). Andrew likens this loyalty to an “ironclad kernel” of support (07:29).
• Sarah suggests that if the engagement in Venezuela drags on and mimics Iraq/Afghanistan, support may dwindle (08:17).

“If it looks like a quick smash and grab job, right...that's one thing. It's another if we just stay there and it becomes a protracted, you know, protracted adventurism.”
— Sarah Longwell, (08:17)

3. Bleeding Support Among Young Men

• Polling from Puck’s ‘Speaking with American Men’:

  • Trump’s approval among young men is now 46%—down from 56% a year ago (10-point drop).
  • Only 36% among all young people; biggest losses with Hispanics and young people overall (11:03).

• Specific Findings:

  • 78% of young men want to avoid unnecessary wars, with Democrats now trusted more than Republicans by a five-point margin.
  • Only 27% agree Trump is “delivering for people like you”; 40% feel “he talked big but let people like me down.”
  • 50% say Trump is not fighting for them.

“Only 22% agree with the question, ‘Do you feel like Donald Trump is fighting for people like you?’ 50% said no or not really.”
— Sarah Longwell, (11:19)

• Analysis: Andrew highlights that the emotional calculus that helped Trump with young men in 2024 is eroding; and the drop in support isn’t over—“he has more room to fall” (12:10).

4. Compounding Dissatisfaction and Swing Voter Sentiment

• Economic Issues: Rising health costs, unchanged prices, and skepticism about Trump’s economic promises (tariffs, Venezuelan oil).
• Swing Voters: Sarah relays focus group feedback—Trump 2024 voters are unsettled about Venezuela and distrustful of U.S.-led regime change (15:37).
  • Many feel Trump promised “not to be this guy” who engages in foreign entanglements.
  • First-year voter patience is wearing thin; “they do get fed up” and 2026 may see that shift materialize.

5. Trump's "Resilient Ceiling" and Its Double-Edge

• Andrew posits Trump’s unwavering base is both his armor and blind spot. Because his core never abandons him, he feels no urgency to make course corrections that could regain lost middle groups (18:51).
• Historical precedent: Even at low moments (e.g., post-Jan 6), Trump’s support never dips below 35–40%.

“Because that's like that baseline of support in every poll that will never go away...He doesn't really feel the heat on himself.”
— Andrew Egger, (19:35)

• Sarah agrees: “I think what public opinion does is it is a signal for people to move on from Trump...which allows sort of Congress to start making decisions to buck Trump, which are already starting.” (21:45)

• She cites the recent Senate vote requiring Trump to consult Congress on Venezuela as a sign of elite shifting attitudes.

6. The “Bush Line” and GOP Future

• The “Bush Line”: Sarah’s goal is for Trump to exit office as unpopular as George W. Bush (who ended in the low 30s)—a necessary precondition for the GOP to evolve (27:10).
• She references Bush’s 90% approval post-9/11 and the precipitous drop to 32% by the end, suggesting deep unpopularity provokes party transformation.

“That set the table for a complete shift in the Republican Party. And I think if we're going to have a complete shift...you need Trump to leave deeply unpopular.”
— Sarah Longwell, (28:16)

• Both agree: The Republican Party’s future hinges on whether it continues down the Trumpian path or finds a healthier course correction—but today, no one really knows.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Snap Republican Shift to Support Intervention:

  “35% in three weeks...completely flip. I mean, obviously, it's not exactly the same people, but it's a representative sample. 1 in 3 of all the Republicans had one opinion about military intervention in Venezuela then and a different one now.”
  — Andrew Egger, (07:29)

• On Trump’s Base:

  “He has this longstanding power to yank, you know, his base, even if they themselves were among the people who were formerly saying, ‘we don't like this, we don't like this,’...Immediately after he does it...They will then start telling pollsters, ‘actually, we're a lot more in favor of this than we used to be.’”
  — Andrew Egger, (03:56)

• On Disillusioned Young Men:

  “Only 22% agree with the question, ‘Do you feel like Donald Trump is fighting for people like you?’ 50% said no or not really.”
  — Sarah Longwell, (11:19)

• On Voter (Im)patience:

  “In the first year of a presidency, people often give a president time to do the things they said...But they do get fed up and I think we may be starting to see more of that.”
  — Sarah Longwell, (15:37)

• On Public Opinion as a Political Check:

  “…Besides the courts, public opinion is our only check. And so it also...it's also a check on sanity and a check on does the country respond to some of this stimuli and say, right, it's not okay. Which we need.”
  — Sarah Longwell, (24:54)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• Trump’s Approval Numbers and Venezuela Polling: 02:28 – 07:00
• GOP Base’s Flexibility: 07:01 – 09:24
• Young Men Abandoning Trump: 10:29 – 12:10
• Swing Voters React/Iraq & Afghanistan Parallels: 15:37 – 17:50
• Does Trump’s Resilient Ceiling Hurt Him?: 18:51 – 22:05
• “Bush Line” Historical Context and GOP Future: 27:10 – 29:54

Conclusion

The episode paints a picture of a Trump presidency weakened by poor approval ratings and a quickly eroding coalition, especially among young men. The effect of Venezuela’s intervention, though unpopular broadly, is made invisible to Trump by the reflexive support of his base—even as that very security may ultimately be a vulnerability. Both hosts agree that only sustained unpopularity can force meaningful change in the GOP, hoping that falling below the “Bush line” might finally prompt the party’s next transformation.

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