Trump Love Affair With Putin Burns On As Tulsi Is Confirmed

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes – "Trump Love Affair With Putin Burns On As Tulsi Is Confirmed"

Release Date: February 12, 2025

Hosts: Sam Stein (Managing Editor at The Bulwark) and Bill Kristol

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1. Introduction

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, Sam Stein and Bill Kristol delve into significant developments in U.S. foreign policy, particularly focusing on the recent Senate confirmation of Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and former President Donald Trump's latest interactions with Russian President Vladimir Putin. While an initial light-hearted mention of Kendrick Lamar's halftime show is briefly touched upon, the conversation swiftly moves to more pressing geopolitical issues.

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2. Senate Confirmation of Tulsi Gabbard

Key Points:

• Tulsi Gabbard's Confirmation: On Wednesday, Tulsi Gabbard was confirmed by the Senate as the Director of National Intelligence with a vote tally of 52-48. Notably, only one Republican, Mitch McConnell, voted against her confirmation.

Notable Quote:

"Tulsi Gabbard was confirmed by the Senate as DNI. Only one Republican voted no. That would be Mitch McConnell." (00:00)

Analysis: Bill Kristol expresses concern over Gabbard's appointment, implying skepticism about her qualifications and alignment with current intelligence community standards. He remarks on the swiftness and political motivations behind her confirmation, suggesting it marks a shift towards a more MAGA-aligned foreign policy stance.

"It's just bad in my opinion, for the intelligence community, the efforts of the United States that she will be director of national intelligence." (10:11)

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3. Trump's Statement on Putin and Ukraine Peace Agreement

Key Points:

• Trump's Communication with Putin: Donald Trump released a statement via his Truth Social account announcing discussions with Vladimir Putin covering topics like Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, and artificial intelligence (AI).

• Agreements Highlighted:

  • Mutual visits to each other’s countries.
  • Collaboration on a peace agreement regarding Ukraine, involving figures such as Marco Rubio, John Ratcliffe (National Security Advisor), Mike Waltz, and Steve Witkoff.

Notable Quotes:

"He spoke with Vladimir Putin. They discussed Russia, discuss Ukraine, Middle east, AI." (00:00)

"They agreed to each visit each other's country... they are going to start working together on a peace agreement vis a vis Ukraine." (00:00)

Analysis: Kristol views this development as a troubling sign of potential U.S. abandonment of Ukraine. He emphasizes Trump's historical stance against supporting Ukraine and expresses concern that this could signal a retreat from previously committed support, potentially undermining Ukraine's sovereignty and security.

"It's for me a very worrisome development as a strong supporter of Ukraine because almost three years ago Putin began his all out invasion of Ukraine. And I really worry that today we're seeing the beginning of the all out abandonment of Ukraine." (01:50)

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4. Concerns Over U.S. Support for Ukraine

Key Points:

• Shift in U.S. Policy: The absence of mentions regarding tightening sanctions against Russia in Trump's statement raises alarms about decreased U.S. leverage against Putin.

• Negotiation Dynamics: The inclusion of Steve Witkoff, a real estate figure rather than a seasoned negotiator, in the peace talks is viewed as undermining the legitimacy and seriousness of the negotiations.

Notable Quotes:

"There's credulous repeating of Putin's rhetoric. And I think the point you made is very important." (02:41)

"If there is a deal, there's going to have to be some guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty and some guarantee that we might help them." (06:38)

Analysis: The hosts express skepticism about the effectiveness and sincerity of the proposed negotiations. They highlight the potential for the U.S. to make significant territorial and resource concessions to facilitate peace, which could leave Ukraine vulnerable in the long term.

"What's the incentive for them to sign off?" (06:56)

"I come back again, though, this fits in with Hexath sort of sliding aside of Zelensky's concerns." (08:16)

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5. Pete Hegseth's Speech and Implications for NATO

Key Points:

• Hegseth's Stance on Ukraine and NATO: Pete Hegseth, a prominent defense figure, delivered a speech ruling out Ukraine joining NATO. He emphasized that Ukraine's long-term security would depend on European support rather than NATO expansion.

Notable Quotes:

"Long term Ukrainian security will have to depend on the Europeans." (05:36)

"Not a chance in hell that they could ever get a job like this except from Donald Trump." (12:58)

Analysis: This position undermines NATO's previous assurances to Ukraine and diminishes the strategic deterrence against Russian aggression. Bill Kristol criticizes Hegseth for abandoning leverage that could have been used to ensure Ukraine's sovereignty and security within NATO's framework.

"I think you're absolutely right... it's an ominous day for Ukraine." (06:38)

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6. Potential Negotiations Involving Ukraine's Resources

Key Points:

• Resource Leveraging: Discussions hint at Ukraine potentially selling rare minerals and other energy resources to the U.S. in exchange for military aid, possibly under long-term leases.

Notable Quotes:

"We are talking sort of dual track here... In exchange for aid." (04:54)

"Ukraine's unjustly attacked. You talk to Putin without letting Zelensky know." (08:56)

Analysis: Such negotiations could commoditize Ukraine's natural resources, placing economic interests above national sovereignty and long-term stability. The lack of transparency and exclusion of Ukrainian leadership from these talks raises ethical and strategic concerns.

"I have to express skepticism about the motivations and potential outcomes of these negotiations." (05:36)

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7. Conclusion: Shift Towards MAGA-Aligned Foreign Policy and Implications for Ukraine

Key Points:

• MAGA Influence: The confirmation of Tulsi Gabbard and the involvement of MAGA-aligned figures like Steve Witkoff signal a pivot towards a more nationalist and unilateral U.S. foreign policy.

• Ukraine's Future: The combination of potential negotiations that may disadvantage Ukraine and the sidelining of NATO support jeopardizes Ukraine's ability to maintain its sovereignty and resist Russian aggression effectively.

Notable Quotes:

"It's just bad in my opinion, for the intelligence community, the efforts of the United States that she will be director of national intelligence." (10:11)

"Hegseth... makes you think for now at least, it's MAGA now." (12:54)

Final Thoughts: Sam Stein and Bill Kristol portray a bleak outlook for Ukraine, emphasizing that the current trajectory of U.S. foreign policy under MAGA influence prioritizes political maneuvering over strategic alliances and long-term global stability. The episode underscores pressing concerns about the erosion of traditional American support for Ukraine and the potential ramifications of this shift on international relations.

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Notable Timestamps and Quotes

• 00:00 – Introduction of topics: Tulsi Gabbard's confirmation and Trump's statement on Putin.
• 01:34 – Bill Kristol's initial reaction and skepticism regarding the developments.
• 04:23 – Discussion on potential negotiations involving Ukraine's natural resources.
• 05:36 – Analysis of the implications of Pete Hegseth's speech on NATO.
• 10:11 – Concerns over Tulsi Gabbard's role and her impact on intelligence efforts.
• 12:58 – Final thoughts on the dominance of MAGA-aligned figures in foreign policy.

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Note: This summary distills the key points from the transcript, providing an organized and comprehensive overview of the episode's content. For in-depth analysis and full context, listening to the complete Bulwark Takes episode is recommended.

Transcript

[Sam Stein]

Hey guys, Sam Stein here, managing editor at the Bulwark, here with Bill Crystal who really wanted to jump on to talk about Kendrick Lamar's halftime show. But instead we're going to talk about Vladimir Putin and Tulsa Gabbard and Pete Hegseth. So we'll save Kendrick for another day. We are speaking On Wednesday around Troll 45, about 30 or 40 minutes ago, two things happened. One was Tulsa Gabbard was confirmed by the Senate as DNI. Only one Republican voted no. That would be Mitch McConnell. Everyone else voted yes. So it was 52 to 48. The second thing I think more importantly was that Donald Trump put out a statement, I guess you could say put out a statement. It's from his account on truth and in it he says a number of different things. The highlights are he spoke with Vladimir Putin. They discussed Russia, discuss Ukraine, Middle east, AI. Two things that stand out. One, they agreed to each visit each other's country, which is interesting. Two is that they are going to start working together on a peace agreement vis a vis Ukraine and that the people involved in it are going to be Marco Rubio, John Ratcliffe, that's the National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz as well. Sorry, John Radcliffe is director of ca. Mike Waltz, national Security Advisor. And Steve Witkoff, who is the special on not involved will be General Kellogg, who's the actual person in tasked with negotiating a peace deal for Ukraine. So what do you make of it?

[Bill Kristol]

No, it is big news. But can I just say about Kendrick Lamar, I just, I just got all these notes, detailed analysis of some of the choreography and you're just going to land the hot and some of the, well, some of the lyrics, none of which I quite understand. But anyway, yeah, another day. That'll be a lot. I think that'll be a 3am live.

[Sam Stein]

We need more schedule.

[Bill Kristol]

Somehow the editors want to schedule that as a 3am live podcast, you know, on Sunday night. Anyway, no, it is a big deal and despite joking about this, it's for me a very worrisome development as a strong supporter of Ukraine because almost three years ago Putin began his all out invasion of Ukraine. And I really worry that today we're seeing the beginning of the all out abandonment of Ukraine. I mean, there's been a fight within the Trump administration. Obviously the Republican Party has split on this, but people like me have had hopes and more important than people like me, people closer to Trump world who were pro Ukraine have had hopes that Trump could see that it's not in his interest to simply abandon them. He may just Putin's not going to give him a real deal or a good deal and maybe he'll end up being a grudging supporter of Ukraine and also put pressure on Putin. Remember Trump himself was saying, wasn't he, Sam, a couple, a few weeks ago, sanctions, you know, I can tighten those sanctions.

[Sam Stein]

Sanctions.

[Bill Kristol]

There's not a word about that in this statement. There's credulous repeating of Putin's rhetoric. And I think the point you made is very important. Keith Kellogg, who's was Mike Pence's national security adviser in the first term, pretty hawkish on Ukraine, certainly by Trump world standards, has been to Ukraine. It was the guy who was supposedly handling this and has been sort of trying to stay, I'd say steer a middle course between firm support for Ukraine and abandonment of Ukraine. Not mentioned as the negotiator. Instead his real estate buddy, I think he's real estate, isn't he? Steve Witkoff is New York deal negotiating buddy, whatever he is. But I mean not a deal negotiator is there and what does he do? He negotiates deals and he was there incidentally, helping get that American out. He met with Putin already. The whole notion of what's the word I'm looking for? Not blockading, you know, isolating Putin, not meeting with Putin is not. He's the outcast, he's indicted criminal.

[Sam Stein]

Well, that's out there.

[Bill Kristol]

I mean that, that's all gone. They're Trump's happy to go meet with Putin, apparently so. And final point I'll just make, he says I'm going to call President Zelensky and inform of this. He doesn't say that there's going to be a negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. He says we're going to negotiate with Ukraine. Maybe we'll let Zelensky send a representative, maybe we won't, but we may cut a deal right over Zelenskyy's head right now.

[Sam Stein]

The preamble to this was there was talks of territorial exchanges. There's also talks of Ukraine selling the United States what minerals, rare goods. What was it like? Natural?

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah, I don't even rare minerals and other energy, you know, energy sources in exchange for weaponry.

[Sam Stein]

So there were pockets of news that suggested that we were actually in medium to far stage negotiations with Ukraine about how to actually continue our support of their military operations. Is this possible that we're talking sort of dual track here, that we're, you know, you know, shown a little bit here, shown a little bit there. But behind the scenes it's maybe more complicated.

[Bill Kristol]

I mean it could be that again people who are more pro Ukraine were hopeful that some people who are closer to Trump had come up with this way that would appeal to Trump of helping Ukraine which would be, hey, you get to have this 90 year, 99 year lease on Ukraine's minerals or the energy sources in return for the aid. And it was reasonably clever move people. General Jack Keane co authored an op ed on that I think about a week or two ago and that was clear something they, they sort of been hope Kellogg was talking about that no mention of that here could yes, and that could be the plan. That could be what Trump threatens Putin with if they get into negotiations and Putin isn't is being unreasonable, which I expect he will be. Certainly no hint of that here. It doesn't mean it couldn't, it couldn't come back.

[Sam Stein]

But well and the other thing that is sort of hanging over this is so Hegseth, Pete Hexeth, just defense figure Hexith is over in Ukraine right now, gives a speech in which he rules out the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. I mean it was not going to happen necessarily, but it was always there as a possible negotiating leverage point and then also makes the statement that long term Ukrainian security will have to depend on the Europeans. And to me that was actually the biggest policy point breakthrough here, which is, look, if you negotiate a deal with Putin in the interim, that's fine, maybe you can make the logical ideological case that it's, it's good to stop the fighting. But it's the long term security, the long term ability to say, okay, this is a stable part of the world that is difficult and there's nothing necessarily to stop Putin from turning around and reneging on the deal, especially if America's not a party to the long term security of the Ukrainian. So that to me was the thing that.

[Bill Kristol]

I think you're absolutely right. I'm very glad. It's funny, I saw the hexa thing earlier this morning and I thought, ugh, that's bad. I mean you're giving away all your leverage. Incidentally, if there is a deal, there's going to have to be some guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty and some guarantee that we might help them. One would think otherwise they're just being left alone with arms cut off.

[Sam Stein]

Right. What's the incentive for them to sign off?

[Bill Kristol]

Well, what's the incentive for Putin to honor that deal or just honor it for a month, kind of a decent interval, then back to the war and NATO membership in fact, with, you know, presumably not including for now the Parts that would be occupied by Russia has always been the greatest leverage we've had. That's Putin is scared of NATO. That's the one thing we've learned in the last three years. He does not want a war with NATO. He only attacks non NATO countries. And whenever there's some NATO looks like it might get close to being involved, he starts talking about nuclear weapons. So Hexif gave, totally gave that away. I mean, from his point of view, he didn't give it away because he doesn't want to fight. He doesn't want to help. Doesn't not just want to fight, he doesn't want to help Ukraine, basically. So I very much agree that, that now where you see it, there's some, some coordination. Presumably Trump knew what Hexath was saying and whatever. It's a very ominous day for, for Ukraine. It's also the timing is interesting. I mean, this Munich security conference, which is the kxeth is there ahead of in Europe ahead of is Friday to send to Sunday, as I recall. I think it's usually Friday or Sunday. Vice President Vance is going to speak. He's going to meet with Zelensky. Vance has been very hostile to Ukraine, but he was going to meet with the president of Ukraine. Now, Trump is maybe partly for usual Trump reasons, have wanted to be in the center of the spotlight, has carefully timed this so that Vance's speech is a total, you know, afterthought, presumably.

[Sam Stein]

Right.

[Bill Kristol]

And. And he's now at the center and everyone's going to be interested in what he said to Putin and when is he going to actually meet with Putin and who's. How do these negotiations happen? I come back again, though, this is fits in with Hexath sort of sliding aside of Zelensky's concerns. The fact that he's explicitly says in his little post that he didn't talk to Zelensky before this. I mean, just think about this as a common sense matter. Right. You have an ally. We're helping Ukraine. Ukraine's unjustly attacked. You talk to Putin with even not even letting Zelensky know, not even even though Zelensky's got out of his way to try to be reasonable from Trump's point of view and find ways for Trump to kind of help Ukraine without simply reversing himself. Very, very ominous side, I think I'm.

[Sam Stein]

Not trying to find silver linings because I'm not sure how many exist, but two ones I want to throw out. One was they just exchanged. They're not calling it a prisoner exchange. But it was for Mark Fogel who came home, was imprisoned in Russia, came home last night, appeared in the Oval Office. The other little silver lining, I suppose is that Hegseth was asked or made a comment about territorial concessions and said no one imagines that. He said it was unrealistic that Ukraine would go to the pre2014 borders. He could have said the pre2022 borders. But no one, I think believes that Crimea is going to be part of any negotiated settlement. Those are the small silver linings. But I think in the aggregate it's, it's fairly bleak for Ukraine or people who support Ukraine because as you know, Zelensky was not privy to this call or at least not part of it. And remember the, the whole stance of the Biden administration was we cannot negotiate a settlement unless Ukrainians are at the table. And this was firmly them not at the table. Last thoughts on Tulsi because I think it's not totally relevant to this probably as a tertiary news development, but to a degree it does, you know, put a stamp on the idea that we are in a full MAGA foreign policy now.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah, I think it is relevant for that. A. It's just bad in my opinion, for the intelligence community, the efforts of the United States that she will be director of national intelligence. One Republican voted no Mitch McConnell. It's, he seems to have, you know, reversed 180 degrees somehow. No McKenzie. Right. Kind of point. I mean, it's not. I'm glad he is. I guess it's not pointless. I'm glad he is. But it's sort of sad almost at this point. Does he know what a mistake he made over the last five, six years?

[Sam Stein]

Maybe this is his.

[Bill Kristol]

Well, I wish it would have more effect, honestly. But I give him credit for it.

[Sam Stein]

So that's fine. Just wait. Just wait. Bill, we got our.

[Bill Kristol]

I give him credit for I mean, I think, I think you put your finger on the key thing, which is, I mean, who's dominating Trump's foreign policy? There's. There was hope. Has been hope. Still is hope. Rubio, deep down, one assumes he's not where MAGA world is, though God knows he just capitulates on everything and it's kind of appalling.

[Sam Stein]

I mean, let's just hold on, let's pause on Rubio for a second because I find it like I find him to be an interesting figure right now. He seems incredibly sidelined. Right. He was basically shoved. USAID was shoved down his throat. He supports USA it or has in the past this whole enterprise was shoved down his throne. He has to defend the gutting of it. And then he's, you know, he's doing stuff in, in South America, totally worthy and important. But his, his whole Panamanian deal turned out to be farce. And now he's kind of like a secondary, if not tertiary figure in this Ukraine situation, put behind, you know, people like, you know, Wyckoff and I guess, maybe not Kellogg, but it seems like it's Trump negotiating everything. Witkoff basically doing all of the actual legwork of the negotiations and the actual Secretary of State, I don't know. He's out in the ether.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah. And just on the kind of humiliation of Rubio's side. I'll just add that he's had at least two really appalling MAGA appointments shoved down his throat and anti policy planning. And this guy Beatty, it's acting under Secretary for public diplomacy. I mean, really, that one is just mind blowing, really. And the USAID thing, which is not trivial, that's a large part of the State Department's soft power diplomacy goes through usaid. So, yeah, the whole thing. So Rubio. So people had hopes for Rubio. He's not a player at all. People have hopes for Mike Waltz, the National Security Advisor. He and his deputy, Alex Wong have been. Waltz flipped about a year ago when he thought he had a chance to get this job. But they've been pro Ukraine and more, I guess, you know, less MAGA ish in their foreign policy views. So we'll see what happens there. But Wallace also has gone along with stuff and will presumably go along with this. Hegseth, obviously Gabbard, the two most. Wouldn't you say? Maga. Pure maga. Pure Trump Creations.

[Sam Stein]

Undistilled, unqualified.

[Bill Kristol]

Not a chance in hell that they could ever get a job like this except from Donald Trump. I mean, the others, whatever you think of them, Rubio, you know, a senator from Florida who'd run for president. Waltz, a congressman with. Who served in the military. Not crazy appointments, you know, so those two, the MAGA ones and this, this announcement on the heels of Gabbard's confirmation, I agree with that. Really makes you think. And with Hegseth taking a prominent role over in Europe, makes you think for now at least, it's MAGA now, you know, these things aren't. Trump can go back and forth. The one thing I would say it's not clear that Putin will accept a deal on Ukraine, even a big deal. What we would regard, I would regard as a very bad deal. For Ukraine. He may feel he's riding high. He wants to kind of, he wants Trump to kind of get a. Wants to get along with Trump so he can sort of sweet talk Trump, but he also wants to humiliate the U.S. he certainly wants to humiliate Zelensky and he wants to conquer all of Ukraine. I mean, he's made that very, very clear.

[Sam Stein]

So I just, I go back to, I go back to Helsinki and his meeting with Trump in Helsinki and how embarrassing it was really for Trump. I mean, he didn't obviously feel that way, but he just came out looking so ridiculous. I'm excited to see put at Mar? A Lago. I presume that's where he will be hosted. Wonder is Trump going to go to, we assume Moscow. Right.

[Bill Kristol]

I don't want to put Will take to one of his many very fancy dashes or something. I don't know. I don't know.

[Sam Stein]

We don't know. This is exciting stuff. We should put a little wager on that. All right, Bill, thanks so much for doing this. Appreciate it. We'll get your thoughts on Kendrick for another day.