Bulwark Takes: "Trump Plays Economic Arsonist Again" Featuring Ben Walsh

Release Date: July 16, 2025

In the latest episode of Bulwark Takes, host Sam Stein engages in a deep-dive conversation with Ben Walsh, the Breaking News Editor at Sherwood News and a renowned economics expert. The discussion centers around the escalating tensions between former President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, particularly focusing on Trump's reported intentions to fire Powell. This summary encapsulates the key points, discussions, insights, and conclusions drawn during the episode.

1. Introduction to the Discussion

[00:30] Sam Stein: Sam Stein introduces himself and welcomes Ben Walsh, highlighting Ben's expertise in economics and his prior work with HuffPost.

[00:50] Sam Stein: The conversation kicks off with Stein posing a critical question: "Can Trump actually fire Jerome Powell?" This sets the stage for an in-depth analysis of the potential ramifications of such an unprecedented move.

2. Trump's Intentions to Fire Jerome Powell

[00:50] Sam Stein: Stein provides context, noting recent reports that suggest Trump considered dismissing Powell, citing slow interest rate cuts as a primary reason. He mentions that Powell's term as Fed Chairman extends until 2026 and that Trump might be seeking to fire him "for cause" related to the Fed's multi-billion dollar headquarters renovation project.

[01:59] Ben Walsh: Walsh explains the legal constraints, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve operates as an independent agency. "He cannot fire Jerome Powell for the reason that he wants to fire Jerome Powell, which is because Jerome Powell will not cut interest rates fast enough," Walsh states, underscoring the Fed's independence and Powell's secure tenure.

3. Legal Constraints and Potential for Reversal

[03:14] Sam Stein: Stein probes further, asking if Powell could be compelled to resign or if he could legally contest such a firing.

[03:33] Ben Walsh: Walsh confidently asserts that Powell would likely fight any attempt by Trump to remove him. "He has made it pretty clear that he, in statements previously, that he does not think that the president has the authority to fire him," Walsh notes, highlighting Powell's preparedness to uphold his position.

4. Supreme Court’s Role and Historical Precedents

[04:17] Sam Stein: Stein brings up the Supreme Court's previous stance on Trump's firings of heads of independent agencies, questioning if Powell might enjoy similar protections.

[04:48] Ben Walsh: While acknowledging the unique independence of the Federal Reserve, Walsh expresses uncertainty about the Supreme Court's potential intervention. "It's very difficult to say what they would or would not do," he remarks, citing recent expansions of presidential power as complicating factors.

5. Market Reactions to Potential Firings

[05:24] Sam Stein: Stein shifts the focus to the immediate impact on financial markets following the reports of Trump's intentions.

[05:30] Ben Walsh: Walsh details the sequence of events, from a congresswoman's tweet to major news outlets like CBS, Bloomberg, and The New York Times reporting on the potential firing. He explains that the markets responded negatively, with "stocks fall, the dollar falls, and long-term treasury bond yields rise," indicating widespread investor concern.

[07:25] Sam Stein: Stein seeks clarity on why the markets are unsettled by the prospect of Powell's dismissal.

[07:54] Ben Walsh: Walsh elucidates that the unease stems not from specific monetary policies but from a broader erosion of the rule of law and institutional stability. "It's about the rule of law premium in American assets," he explains, emphasizing that investor confidence is shaken by potential governmental overreach.

6. Indicators of Market Sentiment

[09:25] Sam Stein: Stein inquires about the primary market indicators reflecting this instability.

[09:38] Ben Walsh: Walsh identifies the bond market and the dollar as key indicators, noting their significant size and the sophisticated nature of their trading environments. "The bond market and the dollar are the two biggies," he states, contrasting them with the more volatile stock market.

7. Trump's Public Remarks on Powell

[11:07] Sam Stein: Stein introduces a clip of Trump criticizing Powell, which adds another layer to the discussion.

[12:13] Ben Walsh: Analyzing Trump's statements, Walsh suggests that the President is testing the waters, hoping to pressure Powell into resigning rather than executing an outright firing. "I think he's going to try to drag it on... hoping Powell quits on his own," Walsh opines.

8. The Implications of Powell's Potential Reinstatement

[13:46] Sam Stein: Stein highlights Powell's remaining term and potential influence beyond his current role.

[14:11] Ben Walsh: Walsh discusses the Federal Reserve's consensus-driven approach to setting interest rates, indicating that even if Powell were removed, the overall policy direction might remain stable due to the collective decision-making process. "It's extremely unclear and in my view, unlikely, if Trump fires Powell... that Fed interest rate policy would dramatically shift," he explains.

9. Hypothetical Scenarios and Final Predictions

[15:29] Sam Stein: Stein presents a hypothetical situation where Trump successfully fires Powell amidst corruption allegations, asking for Walsh's prediction on market reactions.

[15:44] Ben Walsh: Walsh anticipates severe market backlash, mirroring previous reactions with "stocks fall, the dollar would weaken long term, U.S. treasury bonds yields would rise." He warns of sustained negative impacts until legal interventions, such as emergency injunctions, are enacted.

[15:58] Sam Stein: Challenging Walsh to put his predictions to the test, Stein playfully prompts him to act on his forecast.

[16:15] Ben Walsh: Closing his analysis, Walsh reiterates his belief that Trump will likely avoid directly firing Powell, opting instead to exert pressure for a voluntary resignation.

Conclusion

The episode of Bulwark Takes provides a comprehensive analysis of the contentious issue surrounding Trump's reported intentions to dismiss Jerome Powell. Through expert insights from Ben Walsh, listeners gain an understanding of the legal barriers protecting Powell, the potential economic repercussions of such a move, and the broader implications for the stability of American financial institutions. The discussion underscores the delicate balance between presidential authority and institutional independence, highlighting the far-reaching consequences that political maneuvers can have on national and global economies.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Walsh [01:59]: "He cannot fire Jerome Powell for the reason that he wants to fire Jerome Powell, which is because Jerome Powell will not cut interest rates fast enough."

• Ben Walsh [07:54]: "It's about the rule of law premium in American assets... the stability of American institutions."

• Ben Walsh [15:29]: "I think it would be very bad [for the markets]."

• Ben Walsh [16:15]: "I don't think he's going to try to fire him. I think he's going to try to drag it on... nag him into quitting is the right one."

This detailed summary aims to provide a comprehensive overview for those who may not have listened to the episode, capturing the essence of the discussion and the critical viewpoints presented.