Bulwark Takes: Trump & Putin’s Secret Ceasefire Deal? What It Means for Ukraine
Episode Overview
In this episode of Bulwark Takes, hosted by Sam Stein from The Bulwark, the discussion centers around the recent and surprising developments in the ongoing Ukraine conflict. The primary focus is a lengthy phone call between former President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, purportedly discussing a secret ceasefire deal. Joining Sam Stein are Tim Miller and Tim Mack, providing in-depth analysis and on-the-ground insights from Ukraine.
Key Topics Covered:
- Overview of the Trump-Putin Phone Call
- Analysis of the Ceasefire Proposal
- Russian and American Positions
- Implications for Ukraine and European Allies
- Future Negotiations in the Middle East
- Reactions and Potential Outcomes
1. Overview of the Trump-Putin Phone Call
Sam Stein initiates the discussion by outlining the basic premise of the phone call between Trump and Putin. He describes it as a lengthy conversation, exceeding an hour, with the key takeaway being a proposed ceasefire.
- Key Points:
- Duration and Nature: A “super lengthy” call lasting over an hour focused on ceasefire talks.
- Primary Agenda: Establishing a 30-day ceasefire targeting energy and infrastructure in both Russia and Ukraine.
- Long-term Goals: Discussions around a full ceasefire and future maritime activity ceasefire in the Black Sea.
- Condition from Russia: Halt all military armament of Ukraine and end foreign military support and intelligence sharing.
Notable Quote:
“Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump had a phone call today. It was lengthy, like super lengthy, over an hour.” — Sam Stein (00:00)
2. Analysis of the Ceasefire Proposal
Tim Miller delves into the specifics of the ceasefire, interpreting the diplomatic language used in the negotiations.
- Key Points:
- Ceasefire Scope: Limited to energy infrastructure, which includes targets like energy and infrastructure components in both nations.
- Russian Motivation: Putin’s primary aim is to ensure Ukraine is not perceived as a threat, thereby halting further military support from the West.
Notable Quote:
“The only actual ceasefire upon anything is on energy infrastructure.” — Tim Miller (02:07)
3. Russian and American Positions
Tim Miller and Tim Mack dissect the differing stances of Russia and the United States in the negotiations.
-
Russian Side:
- Leadership Assertiveness: The Russian side exhibits a dominant and assertive posture, indicating control over the negotiation process.
- Conditions for Ceasefire: Russia demands a stop to all military and intelligence support for Ukraine.
-
American Side:
- Friendly Relations: The U.S. paints a picture of future friendship, downplaying Russia’s assertiveness.
- Lack of Commitment: Despite Trump’s earlier claims of securing a deal, the conversation reveals that no substantial agreement has been reached.
Notable Quotes:
“I felt like there was an alpha energy coming from the Russia side, whereas the US Statement was like, we're going to have a great friendship in the future.” — Tim Miller (03:23)
“The Kremlin wants to feel like Ukraine is not a threat to them.” — Tim Miller (02:07)
4. Implications for Ukraine and European Allies
Tim Mack provides critical insights into how the proposed ceasefire affects Ukraine and its European allies, highlighting the exclusion of Ukraine from the negotiations.
- Key Points:
- Ukraine’s Exclusion: Ukraine is not part of the conversations, leaving their national interests unrepresented.
- Impact on Aid: The potential cessation of military aid and intelligence sharing from the U.S. and Europe could weaken Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.
- Ukrainian Sentiment: Ukrainians feel betrayed and abandoned due to the fluctuating support and recent pause in aid.
Notable Quotes:
“These negotiations are happening without Ukraine at the table and without consideration for Ukraine's national interests.” — Tim Mack (04:21)
“Trust is a funny thing. It takes years to build and seconds to destroy.” — Tim Mack (08:09)
5. Future Negotiations in the Middle East
The conversation shifts to the anticipated negotiations in the Middle East, questioning the role of Ukraine and European nations in these talks.
- Key Points:
- Exclusion of Key Players: Ukraine and European allies are unlikely to be included as active participants in Middle East negotiations.
- U.S. Dominance: The Trump administration appears to be positioning itself as the sole mediator, sidelining traditional allies and partners.
- Speculative Outcomes: Potential outcomes may favor Russian interests, such as Russia retaining control over Crimea and other contested regions.
Notable Quotes:
“There's been no signal at all from the Trump administration that they see Ukrainians or even Europe as a peer in these conversations.” — Tim Mack (11:09)
“It's a ridiculous farce.” — Tim Miller (12:00)
6. Reactions and Potential Outcomes
Tim Mack and Tim Miller speculate on the broader implications of the ceasefire talks and the potential future of the conflict.
- Key Points:
- Ceasefire Viability: Immediate drone attacks following the announcement indicate that the ceasefire is not in effect.
- Long-term Consequences: Europe may pursue its own defense capabilities, such as nuclear weapons programs in Poland and Germany, due to perceived U.S. unreliability.
- Ukraine’s Position: Zelensky is constrained, unable to negotiate freely, and European support remains inconsistent.
Notable Quotes:
“No, there is no ceasefire. It has not happened. There's nothing read to.” — Tim Miller (09:58)
“The only outcome that is so easily foreseeable is that a meeting happens or negotiations happen in the Middle East... Ukraine is not party to them.” — Sam Stein (14:07)
Conclusions
The episode paints a bleak picture of the current geopolitical climate surrounding the Ukraine conflict. The proposed ceasefire between Trump and Putin appears superficial, lacking genuine commitment and excluding critical stakeholders like Ukraine and European allies. The discussions reveal deep-seated mistrust and strategic maneuvering, which could lead to prolonged instability and the erosion of international alliances.
Final Thoughts:
- Trust and Betrayal: The fluctuating support from the U.S. undermines trust with Ukraine, potentially prolonging the conflict.
- Strategic Exclusion: Excluding Ukraine from negotiations diminishes the likelihood of a fair and lasting peace.
- Future Uncertainties: The shifting dynamics suggest a more fragmented and volatile global political landscape ahead.
Closing Quote:
“It only gets worse from here.” — Tim Mack (16:33)
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