Trump & Putin’s Secret Ceasefire Deal? What It Means for Ukraine.

Summary

Bulwark Takes: Trump & Putin’s Secret Ceasefire Deal? What It Means for Ukraine

Episode Overview

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, hosted by Sam Stein from The Bulwark, the discussion centers around the recent and surprising developments in the ongoing Ukraine conflict. The primary focus is a lengthy phone call between former President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, purportedly discussing a secret ceasefire deal. Joining Sam Stein are Tim Miller and Tim Mack, providing in-depth analysis and on-the-ground insights from Ukraine.

Key Topics Covered:

1. Overview of the Trump-Putin Phone Call
2. Analysis of the Ceasefire Proposal
3. Russian and American Positions
4. Implications for Ukraine and European Allies
5. Future Negotiations in the Middle East
6. Reactions and Potential Outcomes

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1. Overview of the Trump-Putin Phone Call

Sam Stein initiates the discussion by outlining the basic premise of the phone call between Trump and Putin. He describes it as a lengthy conversation, exceeding an hour, with the key takeaway being a proposed ceasefire.

• Key Points:
  • Duration and Nature: A “super lengthy” call lasting over an hour focused on ceasefire talks.
  • Primary Agenda: Establishing a 30-day ceasefire targeting energy and infrastructure in both Russia and Ukraine.
  • Long-term Goals: Discussions around a full ceasefire and future maritime activity ceasefire in the Black Sea.
  • Condition from Russia: Halt all military armament of Ukraine and end foreign military support and intelligence sharing.

Notable Quote:

“Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump had a phone call today. It was lengthy, like super lengthy, over an hour.” — Sam Stein (00:00)

2. Analysis of the Ceasefire Proposal

Tim Miller delves into the specifics of the ceasefire, interpreting the diplomatic language used in the negotiations.

• Key Points:
  • Ceasefire Scope: Limited to energy infrastructure, which includes targets like energy and infrastructure components in both nations.
  • Russian Motivation: Putin’s primary aim is to ensure Ukraine is not perceived as a threat, thereby halting further military support from the West.

Notable Quote:

“The only actual ceasefire upon anything is on energy infrastructure.” — Tim Miller (02:07)

3. Russian and American Positions

Tim Miller and Tim Mack dissect the differing stances of Russia and the United States in the negotiations.

• Russian Side:

  • Leadership Assertiveness: The Russian side exhibits a dominant and assertive posture, indicating control over the negotiation process.
  • Conditions for Ceasefire: Russia demands a stop to all military and intelligence support for Ukraine.

• American Side:

  • Friendly Relations: The U.S. paints a picture of future friendship, downplaying Russia’s assertiveness.
  • Lack of Commitment: Despite Trump’s earlier claims of securing a deal, the conversation reveals that no substantial agreement has been reached.

Notable Quotes:

“I felt like there was an alpha energy coming from the Russia side, whereas the US Statement was like, we're going to have a great friendship in the future.” — Tim Miller (03:23)

“The Kremlin wants to feel like Ukraine is not a threat to them.” — Tim Miller (02:07)

4. Implications for Ukraine and European Allies

Tim Mack provides critical insights into how the proposed ceasefire affects Ukraine and its European allies, highlighting the exclusion of Ukraine from the negotiations.

• Key Points:
  • Ukraine’s Exclusion: Ukraine is not part of the conversations, leaving their national interests unrepresented.
  • Impact on Aid: The potential cessation of military aid and intelligence sharing from the U.S. and Europe could weaken Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.
  • Ukrainian Sentiment: Ukrainians feel betrayed and abandoned due to the fluctuating support and recent pause in aid.

Notable Quotes:

“These negotiations are happening without Ukraine at the table and without consideration for Ukraine's national interests.” — Tim Mack (04:21)

“Trust is a funny thing. It takes years to build and seconds to destroy.” — Tim Mack (08:09)

5. Future Negotiations in the Middle East

The conversation shifts to the anticipated negotiations in the Middle East, questioning the role of Ukraine and European nations in these talks.

• Key Points:
  • Exclusion of Key Players: Ukraine and European allies are unlikely to be included as active participants in Middle East negotiations.
  • U.S. Dominance: The Trump administration appears to be positioning itself as the sole mediator, sidelining traditional allies and partners.
  • Speculative Outcomes: Potential outcomes may favor Russian interests, such as Russia retaining control over Crimea and other contested regions.

Notable Quotes:

“There's been no signal at all from the Trump administration that they see Ukrainians or even Europe as a peer in these conversations.” — Tim Mack (11:09)

“It's a ridiculous farce.” — Tim Miller (12:00)

6. Reactions and Potential Outcomes

Tim Mack and Tim Miller speculate on the broader implications of the ceasefire talks and the potential future of the conflict.

• Key Points:
  • Ceasefire Viability: Immediate drone attacks following the announcement indicate that the ceasefire is not in effect.
  • Long-term Consequences: Europe may pursue its own defense capabilities, such as nuclear weapons programs in Poland and Germany, due to perceived U.S. unreliability.
  • Ukraine’s Position: Zelensky is constrained, unable to negotiate freely, and European support remains inconsistent.

Notable Quotes:

“No, there is no ceasefire. It has not happened. There's nothing read to.” — Tim Miller (09:58)

“The only outcome that is so easily foreseeable is that a meeting happens or negotiations happen in the Middle East... Ukraine is not party to them.” — Sam Stein (14:07)

Conclusions

The episode paints a bleak picture of the current geopolitical climate surrounding the Ukraine conflict. The proposed ceasefire between Trump and Putin appears superficial, lacking genuine commitment and excluding critical stakeholders like Ukraine and European allies. The discussions reveal deep-seated mistrust and strategic maneuvering, which could lead to prolonged instability and the erosion of international alliances.

Final Thoughts:

• Trust and Betrayal: The fluctuating support from the U.S. undermines trust with Ukraine, potentially prolonging the conflict.
• Strategic Exclusion: Excluding Ukraine from negotiations diminishes the likelihood of a fair and lasting peace.
• Future Uncertainties: The shifting dynamics suggest a more fragmented and volatile global political landscape ahead.

Closing Quote:

“It only gets worse from here.” — Tim Mack (16:33)

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Transcript

[Sam Stein]

Hey guys, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bulwark. I am joined by Tim Miller and Tim Mack. Tim Mack, for those who know, is at Counter Offensive and he is on the ground in Kiev. And not just Kiev, I'm assuming all of Ukraine happens to be in the Bulwark headquarters in D.C. today was sitting in my office and we decided to talk about the apparent ceasefire talks that have come out from a conversation with Vladimir Putin.

[Tim Miller]

Apparent ceasefire is a really nice way to say it. I don't. I don't even know if it's an apparent.

[Sam Stein]

Apparent ceasefire. Talks.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Okay. Apparent talks.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, just apparent talks. Before we do that, please subscribe to the feed. All right, let me just set it up and then I'll let you guys take it away. Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump had a phone call today. It was lengthy, like super lengthy, over an hour. We get some readouts from it. The general gist and tell me if I'm wrong here, but the general just is per the readouts from both sides, there is some sort of ceasefire. It appears to be a 30 day ceasefire that will involve targeting of energy and infrastructure components in Russia and Ukraine. So neither side will attack each other's energy or infrastructure components. There will be objectives to have a future ceasefire around maritime activity in the Black Sea and then of course, working to some sort of full ceasefire. Those will involve negotiations in the Middle east that will begin immediately or soon. That's basically where the readouts kind of end when in terms of convergence, the divergence here is that on the Russian side, the Kremlin wants a halt to all military armament of the Ukrainians. And they made some sort of vague notion about wanting to have a total end to foreign military support and intelligence sharing as well. And the key condition to stop the conflict from escalating, it's being read as they want to feel like Ukraine is not a threat to them. The Kremlin also said that there's a hockey match that potentially will happen between the US And a.

[Tim Miller]

Friendly.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, friendly. On the, on the, on the American side, they talked. There's some mentioning of, you know, stopping Iran from posing threats to Israel and, uh, working collaboratively in the Middle East.

[Tim Miller]

All right, I want to get to Tim Mack for his expertise, but I'm going to pop off and I want to translate diplospeak to real talk and I want to see how much Tim agrees and then he can get into the details. Okay, so here's the thing. There's no act. The only actual ceasefire upon anything is on energy infrastructure. And it should be noted that Ukrainian drones have been hitting Russian energy infrastructure. Russia also was hitting Ukrainian infrastructure. So. But even still, you could see why Putin would have agreed to that. I would just. You mentioned this, but I would just draw a finer point to the Russia side. Like, their statement was much longer and included a list of things that Trump wanted that they were like, we're considering, you know, we're considering this thing that Trump wants, but, you know, like, we're in the driver's seat here, so we'll see how it goes. I felt like there was an alpha energy coming from the Russia side, whereas the US Statement was like, we're going to have a great friendship in the future. We're going to. It's going to be really nice. So I felt like Putin, Putin also, as you mentioned, made him wait for an hour. And it is true, they joked about it.

[Tim Mack]

Like, Putin was lying on stage. He was on stage giving remarks and someone yelled at him. Aren't you supposed to be talking to President Trump right now? And he was very dismissive about it, and it was obvious that he made a mistake. He did. He did make a mistake.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. So anyway, so that, to me, like, that is like, the key summary is that this Trump said he could make a deal in 24 hours. Even in this one phone call, they're not even close to anywhere close to a deal. Putin kind of made him into a beta. And. And I guess the only encouraging thing, I don't like to just always be Mr. Negative, is that on the Russia side, they said that, you know, to get a lasting peace, we want no more military or intel support for Ukraine from the US and so I guess for those of us who are expecting total surrender today, like, the one positive thing is that I guess we didn't. The US Being we here, did not agree to that initially. So, Tim, translate all that.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. Is that right?

[Tim Mack]

You notice how none of these statements refer to what Ukraine's willing to do? Right. So we haven't yet had any acknowledgement by. So Zelensky is in Finland right now. These two are negotiating once again without Ukraine at the table and without consideration for Ukraine's national interests. Right. So this is very much the Trump administration view that Ukraine does not appear. It's not meant to be included in these conversations. So they've agreed on it. But, you know, in the medium term, it's obvious that these are not terms that Ukraine is going to sign on to. They're not going to agree. Well, they're not going to agree to the cessation of all military aid from the United States and Europe as a condition of these larger, longer ceasefires or broader ceasefires.

[Sam Stein]

Wasn't it true, though, just a week ago that Kyiv was willing to accept a full unconditional ceasefire?

[Tim Mack]

Not unconditional.

[Sam Stein]

Not unconditional. Okay.

[Tim Mack]

Not, not unconditional. But, you know, a ceasefire along, you know, immediate lines, air, sea and along the front lines as well. Okay. But not in return. You see how the Kremlin has kind of, you know, moved all of the goalposts here and is now putting the cessation of military aid and intelligence on the table as part of this. So they've given very little, but they, they've kind of flagged that. What they're going to demand for the rest of it is for the United States and all Western partners of Ukraine to stop providing military aid.

[Tim Miller]

Have they given anything? You said they've given very little. Like what are they being asked?

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, what are the Russians being asked to do? That, I guess, stopping the, you know, target of energy infrastructure.

[Tim Mack]

They're only being asked. They're only being asked to stop. Right. So right now the Russians have quite a lot of momentum in the Kursk region. That is the, the terror, the small bit of territory that Ukraine has controlled on Russian territory. And they're probably in the next 24 to 48 hours going to withdraw completely from that area. Right. So Russia or the Ukraine, the Ukrainians are withdrawn. That, so they're, they're, they're in the middle of a fighting retreat right now. And, and so we've already seen some of the consequences of the last pause of American intelligence and military aid that is to, that is to force Ukraine to give up a major negotiating chip.

[Sam Stein]

Is the intel sharing back online or is that not your understanding?

[Tim Mack]

They have said that the intel sharing is back online. The thing is that you can't just turn this on and off like a switch. There was an actual operations center in Ukraine where they come together to analyze the intelligence and pass it on. That center, the people that were manning that center left. So it's got to take some period to kind of build up again, bring those people back. So I don't know the specifics of whether the extent to which the intelligence sharing has restarted, but this is not something that you can just kind of turn on and off and beam intelligence into various places in an instant.

[Tim Miller]

Part of what you do with Counter Offensive, I really appreciate it. Just like with your being on the ground in Ukraine is it's kind of reporting on like real life, like life and among, among the Ukrainians. And so, and obviously this just happened like an hour ago, so I assume you haven't been, you know, signaling with your, with your pals in Donetsk or whatever, but like, what is just your sense for like the mood there? Like how, how a deal such as this might be interpreted among kind of regular, everyday Ukrainians rather than, you know, the top political breath?

[Tim Mack]

One of the costs of the decline of, you know, mainstream journalism and the closure of all these foreign bureaus is that I think that the foreign coverage of what's on the ground in places like Kiev or elsewhere around the world is really very poor. And I don't think we've conveyed to the public quite how angry the Ukrainians are and how betrayed they feel. You know, trust is. Trust is a funny thing. It takes years to build and seconds to destroy, and it's utterly obliterated. You can turn on the aid, you can turn on the intelligence sharing, but the fact that it was ever turned off while people are actually dying, and I wouldn't dismiss the idea that hundreds of people had died in that interim period directly as a result of. I have no specific evidence of that. But, but you know, I have some evidence actually.

[Tim Miller]

I was talking to a different reporter there who was talking about just the percentage of material that, like the missiles and the drones that was getting through, right. And so like, again, like, can you do one to one on was this death or whatever. But like, but when we were intelligent, when we were in sharing intelligence, you know, it was something like only 10, 20% of the Russian air raid, you know, missiles or drone material was, was like landing and it was up above 50% after the intel sharing stopped, right. So like their success rate increased significantly. So that is a one to one relationship with us. Like that was our fault. Those deaths were our fault.

[Tim Mack]

If there's any signal that you should pay attention today is that just as soon as they finished putting out this raid out, a new wave of drone attacks on Ukraine immediately began. Right. Well, it was not general, it was not localized enough. It's just happened as I was getting on with you folks, but it is not. There is no ceasefire. It has not happened. There's nothing read to.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, I mean, Zelensky has to sign on to it. I mean, that's the big unknown right now. And my question for you to Mac is Linsky's in Finland. He's obviously not a party to these conversations, but you know, the simplest read of it is that he's being boxed in Here, Right. Like he can't then turn around and say, no, I don't actually support a 30 day ceasefire around these energy and infrastructure targets, that he's going to have to take this because how could he not?

[Tim Mack]

That's the most likely outcome. And then trying somehow to navigate this demand by the Russians, which the Americans I think are inclined to commit to, at least in the near term. But, but I don't think Europe's going to commit to it and Ukraine's not going to commit to it. This, this cessation of military aid and intelligence. And then, then once again, I think we're going to see another round of the Trump White House then demanding that its allies stand down and accept a ceasefire at any cost. And we're going to see another round of friction.

[Sam Stein]

What's your understanding of how these Middle east talks are supposed to transpire? Who's going to be the point person? Will Ukrainians be involved in those at all?

[Tim Mack]

There's been no signal at all from the Trump administration that they see Ukrainians or even Europe as a peer in these conversations, and they see Europe and Ukraine as sort of nasty realities on the ground that they need to content, deal with, but not really, certainly not partners, certainly not allies. And you know, one of the people that was supposed to be involved, General Keith Kellogg, who was supposed to be an envoy to both Ukraine, Russia has been totally boxed out of the talks now.

[Tim Miller]

So it's for being too friendly to Ukraine.

[Tim Mack]

He was being accused of being too friendly to you, right?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Sam Stein]

What is his remit was Russia and Ukraine has just made only Ukraine, it's all can't talk to Russia.

[Tim Mack]

Yeah. He doesn't have the negotiating power to speak to Russia now.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. I mean, this, like the absurdity of this whole situation, right, like when you step back is that, you know, you have the fucking hockey game. Like, you know that Trump's like, oh, we're going to have a friendly. And Vladivostok, he clearly is like, oh.

[Sam Stein]

It'S the Olympics, the miracle penguins.

[Tim Miller]

And we're going to bring you some Kentucky bourbon and you'll bring us some vodka. The whole thing is preposterous. And they're going to go meet in the Middle East. And Trump in the interview yesterday, the day before, talks about how we're going to divide up the assets. You know, like, he's like, he's a mediator in a fucking divorce proceeding between two, two rich people and, and, and where, where, you know, he's on just the side of the dude that was cheating Right. Like the, the whole thing is, is a ridiculous farce. Where, where they. Sam's question was, is Zelensky boxed in? And that's like their plan. Right. Like the. Trump is trying. Trump and Putin. Trump is trying. Not Putin. Maybe Trump is trying to box in Zelensky by siding up to Putin, cutting him out, promising that we're going to have some great relationship with Russia in the future. I don't know what fucking Russia is going to bring to us economically. I don't, I can't imagine anything. Fur coats, maybe. And, and, like, I just don't like. Tim, you tell me. But, like, there's, there's a reason, I think, for the Ukrainians and Europeans to be like, no, fuck you, pound sand.

[Tim Mack]

Yeah, they're trading 20% of Ukraine away for a hockey game. I mean, it's ridiculous. You know, it's. The issue is, and the answer isn't clear, whether Europe and Ukraine can go it alone. But we're looking at it. We're staring into a very dark, dark future. Right. We're looking at a Europe which, when they, when they understand, as they do now, that they can't rely on the United States. We're looking at Poland developing a nuclear weapons program, as will Germany, most likely. This is a much more dangerous world that we're looking to over the next five, ten years.

[Sam Stein]

Well, to me, it's like the outcome that is so easily foreseeable is that a meeting happens or negotiations happen in the Middle East. Ukraine is not party to them. They emerge with some sort of declaration that Russia gets to hang on to Crimea for whatever the eternity. Yeah. And, and on top of that, some of the territory they took over Eastern Ukraine, and on top of that, there will be an end to the armament of Ukrainians for some period of time that all is put into some sort of treaty that Ukraine doesn't sign on. And then Europe comes in and says, we don't. We're going to keep arming them. And Ukraine says, we're going to keep taking arms from Europe. And then suddenly you have a completely rearranged conflict where it's actually the US on the side of Russia formally, and it's European with Ukraine on the other side. And then you're in really dangerous territory.

[Tim Mack]

Yeah, I, I don't think they're, you know, the United States is going to actively be adversarial towards Ukraine, but you could see.

[Sam Stein]

You don't think so.

[Tim Mack]

Getting tired.

[Sam Stein]

I mean, he did undress Zelensky in the Oval Office, you know.

[Tim Mack]

Well, what I mean by that is I don't. I don't see, you know, America invading, you know, Levine.

[Sam Stein]

No, no, I don't think that.

[Tim Mack]

But. But, you know, you could see the trajectory of this all. All unfolding in slow motion.

[Sam Stein]

Right.

[Tim Mack]

Is that exactly what you just described, Sam, which is that the United States will say, I guess Zelensky isn't committed to peace after all, because he won't give up his country and the safety of his citizens, and that will be the ball game.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. There's another wrinkle to this that the Ukrainians are pointing out, and I think that there's this natural kind of, like, assumption that, like, Trump's just going to give Putin what he wants and so that eventually they'll come to some sort of deal. But the Ukrainians are pointing out the other kind of element to this. Their statement on this is that the only proposal they came to was with regards to energy infrastructure, cease fire, was because ultimately Putin wants war. Right. And that, you know, from their perspective, it's like, yeah, okay, the only thing Putin agreed to was this, because he's not. He's not actually interested in ceasefire. He's just. He's just. He's just, you know, kind of, you know, running Trump along here.

[Sam Stein]

That was my point, though. Ukraine's actually offered much more in terms of a ceasefire than Putin was willing to agree to, and they're the ones who are the aggressors.

[Tim Miller]

Well, that's thrilling. It's great stuff, Tim. Tim, you got anything else? Is there any. Do you have anything, you know, any little sunflowers for us from your time in Ukraine that you can bring. Bring it home with?

[Tim Mack]

No, it's only going to get worse from here. So I have a welcome to Bullock YouTube page.

[Tim Miller]

That's our tagline.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, it only gets worse. All right, guys, the Tims. Thank you, man. Thank you, Tim Mack. Thank you, Tim Miller. Appreciate it. Thank you. You guys watching? Always. Subscribe to the feed. We'll talk to you later.