Bulwark Takes: Trump Says The Strait Is “Open.” So Why Isn’t Anyone Moving?

Host: Andrew Egger (The Bulwark)
Guest: Sal Mercogliano (Maritime historian, shipping expert, and host of "What’s Going on With Shipping?")
Date: April 9, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the tense and rapidly evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz following the Trump administration’s announcement of a ceasefire between the US and Iran—and the conflicting reports about whether shipping has actually resumed in the area. Andrew Egger brings on Sal Mercogliano for his expert analysis on the ground reality of maritime traffic, the economic and legal fallout, and the risks for international shipping and security.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The "Ceasefire" and Claims the Strait is Open

• Conflicting Reports: US officials, including the White House and Secretary Hegseth, publicly declare the Strait "open," yet ship movement data doesn't corroborate this optimism ([02:46]).

• Reality on the Water: Most ships passing through are Iranian-affiliated or require individual deals with Iran, and no broad reopening is observed. Most shipping firms are waiting for “something firm that they're not going to get shot at” ([02:46]).

  "I'd expect to sit there and watch... ships would bolt for the Strait of Hormuz if they had the opportunity. They would go—that's not what's happening."
  —Sal Mercogliano ([02:46])

2. Iran’s “Toll Booth” and Limited Access

• Vessels that do transit usually go through a narrow passage near Iranian territory, dubbed the “toll booth,” with Iran demanding coordination ([02:46], [05:16]).

• Several countries (China, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, France) have arranged individual agreements with Iran, but details are secret, raising concerns about what they're conceding and if payments or other concessions are involved ([05:16]).

  "No indication that the US is moving any forces into the Persian Gulf to declare it open... what we haven't seen is any ship go through the center of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the traditional area."
  —Sal Mercogliano ([02:46])

3. Legal and Geopolitical Implications

• International Law: Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Iran cannot legally control the entire strait, yet the US seems to offer little resistance ([05:16]).

• Potential US Complicity: Trump's comments to ABC’s Jonathan Karl float the idea of a joint US-Iran administration to "collect tolls," shocking observers ([07:09]).

  "The concept that the US in conjunction with Iran would [control and toll the Strait] is just completely unbelievable. One of the tenets that the US has been… from the foundation is this concept of freedom of the seas."
  —Sal Mercogliano ([08:33])

4. Economic Impacts and Market Perceptions

• Immediate Reaction: Oil markets initially dipped—reflecting hopes based on the ceasefire announcement, despite little real-world improvement in shipping ([09:53]).

• Long-Term Damage: The blockade has already created severe, lasting supply shocks likely to last “40 weeks to fix 40 days of disruption,” with broader knock-on effects unresolved ([10:53]).

  "Even if today you had the new president of Iran, the Ayatollah Bibi Netanyahu, and President Trump get together, damage has been done... it's going to take 40 weeks to put that back together than revise 40 days. We've done the damage..."
  —Sal Mercogliano ([10:53])

5. Best-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios for Shipping

• Best Realistic Case: Even if the Strait "opens" under Iranian supervision with mandatory coordination or tolls, trust and shipping volumes will not fully recover ([13:57], [15:22]).

• Strategic Shifts: Exporting states may seek alternatives—more pipelines, building navies, or forging new alliances (including with China or Russia) to ensure safe passage ([15:22]).

  "If Iran could do that for Hormuz, can Spain do that for Gibraltar...? All of a sudden control of the seas becomes this avenue you can use to generate revenue."
  —Sal Mercogliano ([15:22])

6. The “Toll Booth Economy” and Revenue Windfall

• Iran appears to be demanding monetary compensation from all ships passing through, potentially capturing massive sums—estimated at $1 per barrel, or millions per ship ([18:37]).

  "Talk about serious money... if you're looking at 10 million barrels per day... it's a massive windfall."
  —Sal Mercogliano ([18:37])

7. Global and Regional Responses

• Fragmented International Approach: Instead of unified action, countries negotiate bilaterally with Iran, undermining the possibility of an international response ([20:32]).

• European Predicament: European attempts to evade Russian gas may now be stymied with Persian Gulf energy also constrained ([20:32]).

  "If they don't get themselves organized, what we're seeing is countries like India, Malaysia, Pakistan negotiating separate deals with Iran... that's going to put them into a position to control it."
  —Sal Mercogliano ([20:32])

8. Humanitarian Situation for Mariners

• Many crews remain stranded, facing shortages, boredom, difficulty in repatriation, and sporadic danger ([23:08]).

• Some regional states, especially the UAE, are stepping up to provide support, but capacity remains limited and risk is constant ([23:08]).

  "It's a, I would say, 99% boredom with 1% sheer terror, you know, when you have these attacks... They're really looking for the US Navy or some navies to kind of be the ones to step up."
  —Sal Mercogliano ([23:08])

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the nature of “opening”:
  "Iran sort of declare it, you know, open asterisk. Right... It is hard for me to even think of a single way in which today is closed is actually quantitatively different than yesterday's open with an asterisk."
  —Andrew Egger ([04:30])

• On US traditions vs new policy:
  "One of those kind of core tenets. It's like, you don't do this... the concept that the US in conjunction with Iran would do it is just completely unbelievable."
  —Sal Mercogliano ([08:33])

• On global shipping risk:
  "Who's going to be the first one to try that? And, you know, they're really looking for the US Navy... If you can't go against Iran in the Persian Gulf, that's not a great look."
  —Sal Mercogliano ([23:08])

Highlight Timestamps

• Ceasefire and Opening Reality: [01:46] – [04:30]
• Iran’s Toll Booth and Legal Issues: [05:16] – [07:09]
• Trump’s “Joint Control” Comment: [07:09] – [08:33]
• Market Reactions and Supply Chain Impact: [09:53] – [12:40]
• Best/Worst Case Scenarios: [13:57] – [15:22]
• Toll Revenue and Risks: [17:49] – [19:51]
• Global (In)action: [19:51] – [22:32]
• Mariners’ Plight: [22:32] – [25:36]

Tone & Takeaways

The conversation is urgent, skeptical, and at times incredulous regarding both US and international policy responses. Sal’s tone is informed and sometimes exasperated at the lack of legal, historical, and practical pushback to Iran's maritime overreach. The hosts emphasize both the unpredictability of the situation and the slow-motion disaster unfolding for shipping, world trade, and stranded seafarers.

Final reminder:
"Always be thinking about those mariners on those ships out there."
—Sal Mercogliano ([26:16])

Where to Find Sal Mercogliano

• YouTube: What's Going on With Shipping?
  (Daily/near-daily updates on the Strait of Hormuz and maritime news)

This summary captures the key events, context, and expert insights from the episode—and is intended to inform anyone who missed this rapidly-developing and consequential chapter in global security and trade.