Trump Screws Taiwan for a Deal with Xi

Summary

Bulwark Takes: Detailed Summary of "Trump Screws Taiwan for a Deal with Xi"

Podcast Information:

• Title: Bulwark Takes
• Host/Author: The Bulwark
• Description: The Bulwark’s Bulwark Takes delivers bite-sized analyses on daily news from the entire Bulwark team, including contributions from Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, Bill Kristol, and others.
• Episode Title: Trump Screws Taiwan for a Deal with Xi
• Release Date: July 29, 2025

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1. Introduction: Breaking Foreign Policy News

[00:00] Tim Miller:
Tim Miller opens the episode by announcing breaking foreign policy news concerning the Trump administration's recent decision affecting Taiwan. Specifically, the administration denied permission for Taiwan's President Lai Ching to make a stopover in New York en route to a planned trip to Central America. This move has stirred controversy, especially among Taiwan supporters and Washington policymakers.

Key Point:

• Denial of Visit: Taiwan's President Lai Ching was barred from stopping in New York on his way to visit Paraguay, Guatemala, and Belize, all of which recognize Taiwan as an independent country.
• Chinese Reaction: The decision aligns with China's objections, according to an exclusive report by the Financial Times (FT).

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2. Contextualizing US-China-Taiwan Relations

[00:55] Ben Parker:
Ben Parker elaborates on the complex relationship between Beijing and Taipei, emphasizing the significance of diplomatic recognition. He explains that mainland China consistently pressures other nations to avoid recognizing Taiwan as an independent entity. Historically, the United States has maintained a delicate balance by not formally recognizing Taiwan while still supporting it through unofficial channels, such as allowing Taiwanese officials to visit the US and other countries that recognize Taiwan.

Key Points:

• Diplomatic Recognition: Essential in the power dynamics between China and Taiwan.
• US Balance: The US strategy has been to not officially recognize Taiwan but support it through unofficial means.
• Shift in Policy: The Trump administration appears to be deviating from this middle ground, favoring China to secure significant deals, potentially at the expense of US allies.

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3. Trump's Weakness on China

[01:47] Tim Miller:
Tim Miller critiques Trump's handling of China, highlighting what he perceives as an underreported weakness in Trump's foreign policy approach. Despite having prominent China hawks like Tom Cotton and Mike Waltz in his cabinet, Trump’s actions suggest a softer stance towards China, particularly regarding Taiwan.

Key Points:

• Denial of Visits: Blocking Taiwan's President suggests a lack of support.
• Trade Negotiations: Taiwan is caught in the midst of Trump’s trade policies, including potential tariffs.
• Trust Issues: There is growing concern among allies about whether the US will defend Taiwan if necessary.

Notable Quote:

“It’s a big thing, telling the president of a country that you as a trading partner that he can’t come here. There’s just one data point.”
— Tim Miller [02:55]

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4. Implications for US Alliances in East Asia

[03:27] Ben Parker:
Ben Parker discusses the broader implications of the Trump administration’s policies on US alliances, particularly in East Asia. He points out that inconsistent US policies create uncertainty among allies like Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan regarding US commitment to their defense. This uncertainty may lead these countries to consider bolstering their own military capabilities, potentially including nuclear arsenals.

Key Points:

• Policy Swings: Inconsistent US policies undermine trust.
• Allied Concerns: Doubts about US commitment may drive allies to enhance their own defense measures.
• Regional Stability: US reliability has been crucial in maintaining regional balance post-World War II.

Notable Quote:

“If we don’t do it, then the countries there start to do it. And we've learned that it's much better for the United States to be the dominant military power...”
— Ben Parker [04:00]

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5. Consequences of Trump’s Policies on China's Geopolitical Influence

[05:04] Tim Miller:
Miller highlights the negative repercussions of Trump’s policies, arguing that they inadvertently strengthen China’s geopolitical position. He cites several policy missteps, including the dismissal of key FBI officials specializing in China counterintelligence, undermining the US’s ability to counter Chinese influence effectively.

Key Points:

• FBI Official Dismissals: Extracting experts weakens counterintelligence efforts against China.
• Green Energy Policies: Legislation under Trump is seen as conceding the green energy race to China.
• Soft Power Decline: Cuts to aid and unstable trade policies allow China to expand its influence in regions like Africa.

Notable Quote:

“Trump is making China stronger and succumbing to their wishes. And it's unclear what we're getting out of it.”
— Tim Miller [07:30]

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6. Additional Factors Weakening US Stance Against China

[08:05] Ben Parker:
Parker adds that Trump's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic further damaged US credibility. By praising Xi Jinping’s response to the pandemic despite evidence of China’s initial cover-ups and misinformation, Trump undermined US leadership and trust.

Key Points:

• COVID-19 Response: Trump's praise of China's handling of the pandemic contradicts the severity of COVID-19's impact on the US.
• Leadership Perception: Such actions portray the US as unreliable and easily influenced by China.

Notable Quote:

“Same thing. He wanted a big China deal... he was willing to sacrifice everything else in order to be in Xi Jinping's good graces.”
— Ben Parker [08:27]

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7. The Role of China Hawks in the Trump Administration

[09:24] Ben Parker:
The discussion shifts to the presence of China hawks within the Trump administration, such as Marco Rubio serving as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor. Despite their positions, their influence appears limited in shaping coherent and robust policies against China.

Key Points:

• China Hawks: Figures like Marco Rubio are expected to counter China effectively.
• Policy Inconsistencies: Despite their roles, the administration's actions suggest a lack of unified strategy against China.
• Rationalizations: Republicans may argue that certain concessions are strategic, though it appears inconsistent with their hawkish reputation.

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8. Republican Rationalizations and Policy Justifications

[10:00] Ben Parker:
Parker speculates on how Republican politicians justify their seemingly weak stance on China. He suggests that Republicans often claim to make tough decisions, arguing that their policies, though unpopular, are in the nation's best interest—even if they appear to benefit China.

Key Points:

• Justifications: Republicans may assert that their policies are necessary sacrifices for greater strategic gains.
• Policy Contradictions: There is a disconnect between their hawkish rhetoric and actual policy outcomes that favor China.

Notable Quote:

“Republican politicians... knowingly make bad decisions... because if it weren't me, it would be someone who would be making.”
— Ben Parker [10:19]

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9. Conclusion: Assessing the Impact and Future Implications

[10:56] Tim Miller:
Tim Miller concludes the discussion by emphasizing the detrimental impact of Trump’s policies on Taiwan and the broader US-China relationship. He suggests that these actions not only weaken US alliances but also embolden China’s geopolitical ambitions.

Key Points:

• Eroded Trust: Allies are becoming skeptical of US commitments.
• China’s Strength: US policy missteps are inadvertently empowering China.
• Future Outlook: Continued policy inconsistency may lead to increased regional instability and a shift in global power dynamics.

Notable Quote:

“Winnie the Pooh is running circles around Donald Trump right now.”
— Tim Miller [10:56]

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Final Remarks

Tim Miller wraps up the episode by thanking Ben Parker for his insights and encouraging listeners to subscribe for more analyses. The discussion underscores significant concerns about the Trump administration's approach to China and Taiwan, highlighting potential long-term consequences for US foreign policy and global stability.

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Overall Insights and Conclusions

• Shift in US Policy: The Trump administration's recent actions signal a departure from traditional US strategies in handling China-Taiwan relations, prioritizing deals with China over supporting Taiwan.

• Erosion of Alliances: Inconsistent policies erode trust among US allies, potentially leading them to seek greater autonomy or enhanced military capabilities.

• Empowerment of China: Weak US stances and policy missteps inadvertently bolster China's geopolitical influence and soft power across the globe.

• Internal Republican Dynamics: Despite the presence of China hawks within the administration, actual policies reflect a softer approach, possibly undermining their intended influence.

• Long-Term Consequences: The cumulative effect of these policies may lead to increased regional instability, heightened military tensions, and a realignment of global power structures.

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the Bulwark Takes episode "Trump Screws Taiwan for a Deal with Xi." It provides a clear understanding of the complexities surrounding US-China-Taiwan relations and the potential ramifications of the Trump administration's policies for listeners who may not have tuned into the podcast.

Transcript

[Tim Miller]

Hey, everybody, it's Tim Miller from the Bulwark here with senior editor Ben Parker. We have some breaking foreign policy news here. The Trump administration had denied permission for Taiwan's President Lai Ching to stop in New York en route to a planned trip to Central America. Lai was going to stop over here on the way to Paraguay, Guatemala, and Belize, which recognized Taiwan as a country. This is obviously controversial because the Chinese don't like that none too much. And the FT has the exclusive here on on the White House, basically folding to China's request and, as the FT puts it, something that will deepen concern among Taiwan supporters in Washington that Trump is taking a softer stance on China as he pushes for more deals with Xi Jinping. So that's my little soft summary on this. Ben, you follow this stuff a little more closely than I do. What did I miss as far as the context on this?

[Ben Parker]

Yeah, you got it. You nailed it. The context is that diplomatic recognition is a huge part of the game between Beijing, China and Taipei, China, between the mainland China and Taiwan. Mainland China bullies everyone they can, pressures everyone they can, cajoles everyone they can into not recognizing Taiwan as an independent country. And the United States has always been sort of in the middle on this. Like, we kind of don't recognize Taiwan, but one of the things we do to help them out is that we will allow their officials to visit the United States and then visit other countries that formally recognize Taiwan. It's how we sort of keep it right down the middle and everyone gets along. But apparently not anymore, because we apparently are so eager to please China to make some big, beautiful deal that we're willing to throw our allies under the bus. And, you know, that's become sort of a pattern for us recently.

[Tim Miller]

It has. I want to get in for most of this video into kind of what I see as Trump's weakness on China, something that is, I think, a little undercovered, especially given the fact that he has a couple pretty prominent China hawks in his cabinet. And so, anyway, I want to explore that, but just really quick, narrowly on the Taiwan issue, you know, it's just one thing. I mean, again, it's kind of a big thing, telling the president of a country that you as a trading partner that he can't come here. There's just one data point. I don't know. You look at this. Taiwan is also in the middle of a trade negotiation with Trump because Trump was going to be putting tariffs on this. Another, an ally for no appreciable reason. Like, I just look at the Tea leaves. And it's like, I don't know anything about what China's military plans are or whether they have long or short term plans with Taiwan or what the domestic China stuff is like, not my bailiwick. But I just don't know how you look at this, the moves out of this administration and think, boy, these guys are going to come to Taiwan's defense if needed. And that's got to really concern Taiwan and its defenders and allies around the world.

[Ben Parker]

Totally. And, yeah, this isn't the first indication that Trump isn't actually that high on Taiwan. He has previously said, why would I come to Taiwan's defense? They stole our chips or something like that. It sounds like they were at a movie theater and he's upset with them for stealing the snacks. He has no idea what's going on. So, yeah, if I were in Taipei, I'd be very worried that if I was in military trouble, the single power that I was relying on to defend myself wouldn't come to my aid. There's a couple other points to be made here.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Ben Parker]

One of them is that just the unbelievable swings we get in American policy because of the way our policies now are dangerous in and of themselves. So it'd be one thing if we said, Taiwan's not our business, we're out. We give up, like, that's it, we're done. That wouldn't be great. But under the Biden administration, we said we will. Biden said repeatedly, we will definitely come to Taiwan's aid 100%. And now Trump is saying maybe we won't, and signaling, actually, maybe we care much more about the mainland Chinese. And so why would Taiwan trust us? Why would the South Koreans trust us? Why would the Japanese trust us? And the last point I'll make, this is true in East Asia. It's true in Europe, too. One of the reasons that Since World War II, the United States has been the security guarantor of these parts of the world is not only to protect against expansive powers like Russia or the Soviet Union, like China, but also because if we don't do it, then the countries there start to do it. And we've learned that it's much better for the United States to be the dominant military power in Europe and for Germany to be the dominant military power in Europe. And we've learned that it's much better in Asia for the United States to be the dominant military and for Japan. So as soon as people start questioning if the United States is really committed to our alliances, other people will start to Step up. And there are whispers in Japan and South Korea, maybe we should get nuclear weapons, because if we don't have the Americans, that's what we need. And it's things like this, something as small as denying visit rights to a foreign official, that makes people start to think, okay, maybe it's time to join the nuclear club.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I do think that Japan and South Korea starting to take all that more seriously is absolutely a consequence of what is. What's happening here. I think another consequence, and a more acute one, is just the increased China role both in the region and all around the world. And again, I don't, you know, maybe Donald Trump's playing 3D chess here and there's some great deal coming with Xi Jinping down the line and we'll have a detente with China. Who the hell, you know, the world is confusing. Donald Trump's been elected twice. Anything can happen. But I think if you look at the data points here across a series of issues, because Donald Trump wants this deal with Xi, he has been strung along in such a way that both because of his desire for a deal and because of some really misguided policy decisions back home that are pushed by members of his administration on the Hill, the combination of all those things have been a huge gift to China geopolitically. And I just want to just mention a couple of them. This is kind of a small ball, but we mentioned the dismissal or the basically pushing out of the FBI official that I interviewed a couple weeks ago, Mike Feinberg, who was a specialist on China counterintel. He's getting pushed out of the FBI because he went to a rock concert with Pete Struck, essentially. Again, that's not great. That's not what a tough on China administration does is like prioritize going after perceived domestic foes over ensuring that we have the best experts possible countering China. That's one data point. You had the big beautiful bill that decimated the US Green energy industry. And I've done several interviews on this. Essentially concedes the race on battery powered electric cars to China and gives China huge advantages across a bunch of other industries of the future, where we are just seeding the competition and stepping off the playing field. Elon talked about this a fair amount. I talked to Mike Murphy about it last week. If you missed that podcast on soft power, the dismantling of usaid, you see this all around the world, where now China's gonna be able to fill the void in Africa and other places where we had been giving a tiny part of our budget to help exert influence in those parts of the world. We're not doing that anymore. The trade wars and just the instability of the trade wars make China seem like a more appealing trading partner to some of these countries that you mentioned. Okay. They'd rather trade with the US Than China. They have issues with China. They don't want China to be stronger. But it's like, all right, well, at least if we can get a very fair deal with China, deal that we know is consistent, maybe that's the way to go. You're already hearing this from countries, from allied countries to the US and their diplomats. So those were four that come to mind for me, in addition to now bullying the Taiwan president across all these vectors, we are making China stronger and succumbing to their wishes. And it's unclear what we're getting out of it. What do you make of that assessment?

[Ben Parker]

I think there's one other huge example, which I know you've talked about before, goes back to Trump's first term, which was Covid, which the Chinese lied about, destroyed evidence about, covered up, refused to tell the world about. It's one of the reasons we had this terrible pandemic that killed millions of people, a million Americans. And what did Trump have to say? That Xi Jinping handled it perfectly, that, you know, he was very strong and that he's respected in his country and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Same thing. He wanted a big China deal, which who knows what that means, but he was willing to sacrifice everything else in order to be in Xi Jinping's good graces. And honestly, it's kind of embarrassing.

[Tim Miller]

It's really embarrassing. Yeah.

[Ben Parker]

Like Trump's kind of Xi's bitch a little bit. Like he's a baby.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. I mean, he does. He gets pushed around by Xi totally. And I, look, I'm not like, I guess let's go back to the China Hawk question. So to say I'm not like a huge China hog. I actually, I, in candor, I kind of see both sides of the Taiwan thing. I would fall on the fact of we, you know, we should, for as long as possible, be a reliable ally to Taiwan and, you know, when push comes to shove, tbd. But, like, you know, you've got Tom Cotton over in the Senate, huge China hockey. Mike Waltz, who was the national Security advisor and then got former fired and then demoted, and now he's going to be the UN Ambassador. It's chew China hawk. Are there others? I don't know.

[Ben Parker]

Marco Rubio is Secretary of State and National Security Advisor.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, there you go. How did these. How are these guys stomaching this, do you think? I mean, they're just. They're advancing such a weak policy that is allowing Xi to push us around, and they've named that Trump, I guess, wants a deal at the end of it, and Trump wants to lower the temperature maybe, though, who knows? I don't actually project coherent thoughts onto Trump that aren't actually there. But, like, I don't. What do you. Like what. What do you make of, like, how they rationalize, like, this series of policies?

[Ben Parker]

You know, I think it's the same thing that we've been hearing from Republicans for years now, which is Republican politicians, that is, which is. Well, you know, it's a good thing I'm here to knowingly make bad decisions and make decisions that I know aren't in the best interest of the country, because if it weren't me, it would be someone who would be making.

[Tim Miller]

You don't think there's any substantive, like, they have a substantive case for their position against China, I guess, that, like, the tariffs are forced, are hurting China domestically? I guess I'm just trying to steel, man, what their argument would be.

[Ben Parker]

If you want a deal with China and you've already. If. If you've already got China over a barrel with your tariffs that are hurting them domestically, why wouldn't you keep the pressure up by doing what we've always done with Taiwan, which is allowing their dignitaries and officials to visit, why right now would you offer some concession if you've got them over a barrel? It's a sign of weakness, nothing else.

[Tim Miller]

No doubt about that. Well, Winnie the Pooh running circles around Donald Trump right now. Ben Parker, appreciate you for lending your expertise on this. Everybody subscribe to the feed. If you haven't much more where this came from, we'll be talking to y' all soon.