Trump Shivs Sen. Bill Cassidy

Summary

---

Bulwark Takes Podcast: “Trump Shivs Sen. Bill Cassidy”

Date: January 21, 2026
Host: JVL (joined by Sam Stein and Joe Perdicone)
Theme: Trump’s decision to endorse a primary challenger to Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy—what it means for Cassidy, the nature of GOP primaries, and the ongoing MAGAification of the party.

---

Episode Overview

The episode dives into Donald Trump’s surprise move to endorse Rep. Julia Letlow as a primary challenger against incumbent Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy—one of the few Republicans who voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment. JVL, Sam Stein, and Joe Perdicone explore the political calculations behind Trump's move, the prospects for Cassidy and Letlow, and what this episode signals for the future viability of less MAGA-aligned Republicans within the GOP.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Trump Endorses Julia Letlow Against Bill Cassidy

[01:36-03:14]

• Host JVL sets up the shake-up: Trump is openly backing Rep. Julia Letlow against Sen. Bill Cassidy, who is seeking a third term in Louisiana.
• Notable Context: Cassidy's previous votes, like supporting Trump’s impeachment and his role in the RFK Jr. HHS nomination, alienated him from the MAGA base.

Bill Cassidy’s Political Calculations & Problems

[03:14-05:44]

• Sam Stein argues that Cassidy’s actions reflect “contempt for his own voters”:
  • “He made a calculation that they were rubes and that ultimately they only cared about one thing, which was would Donald Trump support him?” (Sam Stein, 03:26)
  • Cassidy assumed voters “would be fine with horrific public health outcomes because they value politics more than public health.”
• JVL pushes: “Do you think he's correct that for his voters it would really only matter that he was right with Trump and they really do prefer to have measles?” (JVL, 04:44)

Julia Letlow as a Challenger & Her Profile

[05:44-09:47]

• Joe Perdicone notes Letlow’s personal story (her husband died of COVID) hasn’t translated into public health advocacy: “If you think there's some kind of potential health focused agenda for her, don't bet on it.” (Joe Perdicone, 05:51)
• Letlow has “not carved out a lane as being too risky”; she’s a “very normal rank and filer who just actually gets is in the right place at the right time with the wrong man leading the party.” (Joe Perdicone, 09:11)
• Discussion of Louisiana’s “jungle primary” system—runoff if no candidate gets 50%+1; possibility for multiple contests between Cassidy and Letlow, or others if more enter.

Why Letlow? Trump’s Calculus

[07:28-09:00]

• Letlow as the “safe” choice among LA Republicans: no big-name heavyweights challenging Cassidy, and Trump’s early endorsement could discourage more radical figures from jumping in.
• “Trump endorsing Letlow right off the bat probably staves off someone like Clay Higgins jumping in.” (Joe Perdicone, 08:09)

Strategic Advice & What Might Happen Next

[09:47-10:38]

• Stein jokes that Letlow could use her COVID experience to outflank Cassidy on vaccines, but admits “she’ll never do it, of course, but it would be very funny to watch.” (Sam Stein, 09:47)
• The most likely winning message: “Bill Cassidy is too woke to be in the Senate… Not Trump supportive enough.” (Joe Perdicone, 10:19)

Can Cassidy Pull a ‘Brian Kemp’?

[10:46-12:21]

• JVL wonders if Cassidy could be a “Brian Kemp” (GA Governor who survived a Trumpist primary).
• Joe: “Bill Cassidy lost his chance to be Brian Kemp. If he wanted to be Brian Kemp, he would have switched and ran for governor this cycle…” (Joe Perdicone, 11:17)
• Stein notes that governorships are different—a Brian Kemp-style comeback isn’t likely in a Senate race.

Will Cassidy Drop Out or Fight?

[12:35-13:26]

• JVL: “Do you think the polling will be good enough to convince him to stay and fight it out or. No?” (JVL, 12:36)
• Joe: “I would have thought he'd stick around until I saw Elise Stefanik basically do the same thing where she was just like, I'm screwed. I'm not running anymore… I find it highly unlikely, though there is a lot more time.” (Joe Perdicone, 12:52)

No Satisfying Endings for ‘Normies’

[13:33-15:29]

• “I can't even muster it up. Same spine is all we have left…” (Sam Stein, 13:33)
• Most likely outcomes: humiliating defeat (à la Liz Cheney) or a pre-emptive retirement (à la Stefanik).

Did Cassidy Get Double-Crossed?

[15:10-15:56]

• Reports that Cassidy was told by the Trump White House that they’d stay neutral.
• Joe: “Nothing actually matters or is concrete until Trump says it himself. That's all.” (Joe Perdicone, 15:29)
• Sam: “Letlow probably was playing coy… then Trump operates on a whim… I'm sure he woke up one day, didn't like something Bill Cassidy had said and was like, you know what? Fuck this guy. And that's that.” (Sam Stein, 15:41)

The Party’s Future & Final Thoughts

[15:59-16:43]

• NRC (GOP’s Senate arm) worried Trump could “impulsively do this to Susan Collins.”
• JVL wryly sums up: “America is going to hell on a rocket sled. However, we will also get to see bad things happen to bad people. And that's all we can get from this life. Perfect justice waits for the next life. Right now, we just got to revel in the schadenfreude.” (JVL, 16:08)

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “He made a calculation that they were rubes and that ultimately they only cared about one thing, which was would Donald Trump support him?”
  — Sam Stein, 03:26
• “If you think there's some kind of potential health-focused agenda for her, don't bet on it.”
  — Joe Perdicone, 05:51
• “Bill Cassidy lost his chance to be Brian Kemp… He chose not to do it. And that's why he's in the situation.”
  — Joe Perdicone, 11:17
• “America is going to hell on a rocket sled. However, we will also get to see bad things happen to bad people. And that's all we can get from this life.”
  — JVL, 16:08
• “Nothing actually matters or is concrete until Trump says it himself. That's all.”
  — Joe Perdicone, 15:29

---

Key Timestamps

• [01:36] Opening of main discussion: Trump’s endorsement news.
• [03:14] Stein’s central critique—Cassidy’s contempt for voters.
• [05:44] Analysis of Julia Letlow’s profile and chances.
• [09:47] Discussion of possible campaign strategies.
• [11:17] Could Cassidy be a Kemp-style survivor?
• [12:35] Discussion on whether Cassidy will stay in the race.
• [13:33] Reflections on possible outcomes and the bleakness for moderate Republicans.
• [15:10] Did Cassidy believe he had White House neutrality?
• [16:08] JVL’s resigned summing up—schadenfreude as the last consolation.

---

Overall Tone & Takeaways

The episode blends humor, cynicism, and deep skepticism about the future of non-Trump-aligned Republicans. The hosts express little sympathy for Cassidy—arguing his attempts to appease both the MAGA base and moderate voters have left him politically homeless. The show underscores Trump’s total dominance over who survives in today’s GOP and predicts more ritual “face-eating” of non-loyalists. For Bulwark regulars and political junkies, it’s a brisk, biting tour of the week’s party drama.

---

Transcript

[Grow Therapy Announcer]

Forget the pressure to overhaul your life. The New Year doesn't need a new you. It needs you grounded, supported and ready to grow. Grow Therapy helps you make meaningful change at your pace and on your time. Whether it's your first time in therapy or your 50th, grow makes it easier to find a therapist who fits you, not the other way around. They connect you with thousands of independent licensed therapists across the US Offering both virtual and in person sessions, nights and weekends. You can search by what matters like insurance, specialty, identity or availability to get started in as little as two days. And if something comes up, you can Cancel up to 24 hours in advance at no cost. There are no subscriptions and no long term commitments. You just pay per session. Grow helps you find therapy on your time. Whatever challenges you're facing, Grow Therapy is here to help. Grow accepts over 100 insurance plans, including Medicaid in some states. Sessions average about $21 with insurance and some pay as little as $0 depending on their plan. Visit GrowTherapy.com GetStartedtoday to get started. That's GrowTherapy.com GetStartEd GrowthTherapy.com GetStarted availability and coverage vary by state and insur New.

[JVL]

Year Same extra value meals at McDonald's.

[Joe Perdicone]

Now get a savory sausage McMuffin with.

[JVL]

Egg plus hash browns and a small.

[Sam Stein]

Coffee for just $5 for a limited time only.

[JVL]

Prices and participation may vary. Prices may be higher in Hawaii, Alaska and California. And for delivery. Hello everyone. I'm JVL here with my bulwark colleagues Sam Stein and Joe Perdicone. And over the weekend, big news for the leopards. They found some more faces to eat. We got word from the White House that the President of the East United States was eager to endorse a primary challenger to Senator Bill Cassidy. And you say Run, Julia, run. And then today we get word that Representative Julia Letlow has announced that she is challenging Senator Bill Cassidy, who's running for his third term down in Louisiana because I guess sacrificing yourself and voting for RFK to become HHS secretary and humiliating yourself, that wasn't enough. It didn't work. Sam before we go to Joe, I know we're supposed to feel bad about this and we're supposed to feel because Bill Cassidy did vote for impeachment, can't take that away from him. He is one of the more responsible people. He spoke very sternly to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. And extracted some very important concessions from from him, which he waved his piece of paper. We will have vaccines in our time. And he's probably better than your median MAGA senator would be. And yet I can't feel anything except for contempt for him. And I'm kind of openly moving for the magas. Tell me I'm wrong.

[Sam Stein]

Well, I don't think you're wrong. I think your motivation is. Is maybe a little bit harsher than mine, but I think your analysis is very astute. I. I feel like I come out of this thinking that Bill Cassidy had contempt for his own voters in a variety of ways. Right. One was that he. He made a calculation that they were rubes and that ultimately they only cared about one thing, which was would Donald Trump support him? And he might be right about that. But it also is him judging his voters by saying these people have no real intellectual foundation, no way to think independently about the issues. It all comes down to whether or not Trump will back me or at least stay out of this. The other way that he showed contempt for his own voters is that he assumed that they would be fine with horrific public health outcomes because they value politics more than public health. And he made that calculation. He decided, I'm willing to sacrifice the health and wellbeing for a lot of Americans because the people who elect me down in Louisiana care more about whether I'm aligned with Robert F. Kennedy and Maha and Trump than they do about measles. And that is a form of contempt for your voters as well.

[JVL]

Wait, are you saying that he's wrong to have contempt for his voters? Sam, I'm sorry, I'm confused here.

[Sam Stein]

I'm not saying he's wrong or right. I just think he has contempt for his voters. I think he thinks low of his. I think he doesn't think highly of his voters.

[Joe Perdicone]

Voters.

[JVL]

Right. As an analytical matter, do you think he's correct that for his voters it would really only matter that he was right with Trump and they really do prefer to have measles?

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. This is the million dollar question. I know you've weighed in on this a lot. I can't quite bring myself to say that he is correct yet. He may be proven correct. I would like to think that there's a.

[JVL]

There was.

[Sam Stein]

There would be a path at some point in time for even a Republican in Louisiana to say, you know what, I actually don't think we should bring back measles, and I actually think vaccines work. And you're laughing and, you know, I'm happy to BE With Trump 95% of the time, but, yeah, I voted to convict the guy because of what happened at January6. Even if he said, I voted to convict him, we're four years on, we can, we're going to move past. He's president now. Like, I do think there may have been like a way to do this that was more honest and also showed a bit more respect for the people that, who that elect him. You, but you probably disagree with that.

[JVL]

Joe Portico, tell me about Representative Let Low. Let Lao Let Low.

[Joe Perdicone]

So her, her husband died in 2020 of COVID that has not had any bearing on her behavior as a member of Congress at all. So if you think there's some kind of potential health focused agenda for her, don't bet on it. For Cassidy, it's like, okay, he was pushing back in these very small statements. I remember asking him very early on about fluoride and RFK wanting to remove fluoride from the water. And he said, I agree with the dentist association that fluoride's good. And I was like, great, then what? And there was nothing. And that's how it was with every single thing that RFK did. It was, it was, oh, this is, this is, you know, not sound policy. What are you going to do about it? Absolutely nothing. And there's been absolutely nothing. And so he hasn't done anything to counter in any meaningful way to like build a potential coalition there as like a lesser of two evils. He also hasn't done what was necessary to stop Trump from doing this to him, which was a full throated change of personality like JD Vance did. So he really kind of invited this for himself. And someone like Susan Collins who might invite something like this, though, is a much higher risk because she is crucial to the majority. Like all the member, all the senators who voted to convict, they will get this treatment eventually or they will find themselves out and not a part of the party anymore like Mitt. And so Letlo is, she has a great, she has a great path here to, to move into this seat.

[JVL]

So here's my question. What did Lightlow do to earn Trump's endorsement so quickly? Was she the only one who was going to challenge Cassidy?

[Joe Perdicone]

Well, if you look at like the prominent, more prominent Louisiana Republicans, it's Mike Johnson, Steve Scalise, these guys aren't running for Senate. These are House guys. This is someone with a really young career. She came to Congress only a few years ago. She started in 2021. So like she is there. She also hasn't carved out a lane as being too risky like a Clay Higgins. Clay Higgins could not did. Oh, Clay Higgins statewide race.

[Sam Stein]

I was gonna say, what if he chose to run? Yeah.

[JVL]

Oh, my God.

[Joe Perdicone]

I mean, and maybe, maybe he will. I think that, like, Trump endorsing Let Low right off the bat probably staves off someone like Clay Higgins jumping in. But, you know, if I see him tonight, I'll definitely ask him, would you consider running if this is now an open primary?

[Sam Stein]

It's not an open primary. Trump's already endorsed.

[JVL]

Well, so here's my question. Is it. If you're Cassidy, do you want more people in then, like, you'd rather have a much more muddled field than just be mano a mano with Trump's candidate.

[Joe Perdicone]

Louisiana will go to a runoff anyway.

[JVL]

Oh, is it a jungle primary?

[Sam Stein]

No, no.

[Joe Perdicone]

It's like if he. If nobody clears more than 50 plus 1 in the primary, then they'll. Then they'll go to a runoff. So, like, it could be him versus Let Low twice. It could be, you know, like, if Clay Higgins gets in, who does that take away from? I don't. I don't know.

[JVL]

Right. Wow. Well, so it's. It's super interesting. Do you have thoughts, Joe, on Let Low herself as a commodity?

[Joe Perdicone]

I think she is a very normal rank and filer who just actually gets is in the right place at the right time with the wrong man leading the party. And that all sucks for Bill Cassidy. And it's great for her because she can jump up a few rungs on the ladder very quickly in terms of her being, like, she doesn't have an impressive legislative record, she's not outspoken. I see her all the time, but I. I've never really spoken to her. Most reporters, she's not particularly front and center. Like, a lot are. Maybe she's going to be a lot more now, but we'll see, you know.

[Sam Stein]

What she should do, which would be the funniest thing. It will never happen because it would cost her votes. She should run a campaign where she says, I know personally the tragedy of infectious disease. My husband died from one. And I, because of that, I believe that vaccines are good, even if we need to make sure that they're, you know, done correctly. What I don't like is the fact that we have now, you know, ushered in a new era of measles thanks to Bill Cassidy. And she should just run like that and just torture him for what he did. She'll never do it, of course, but it would be very funny to watch.

[Joe Perdicone]

The. The easier path for her is to just say, like, Bill Cassidy is too woke to be in the Senate too woke. He is. He is not Trump. He's not Trump supportive enough. Louisiana voters are going to eat that right up. Louisiana Republican voters. Yeah, they'll eat that right up. And she'll cruise.

[Sam Stein]

Hey, Joe, can Democrats vote in, vote in this primary? Is that one of these states where they can cross lines or no?

[Joe Perdicone]

I don't think so, but I'd have to check.

[JVL]

So I got a question for you guys. So the great tantalizing hope for all normies is Brian Kemp. Right? Brian Kemp fought off a Trump approved primary challenger. I think he's the, maybe not the only one, but kind of like one of only a handful of people. I can't think of other people who have successfully fallen.

[Sam Stein]

Who are the other ones?

[JVL]

I don't know. I'm putting this all on the spot, but, but my question for you guys is, could Bill Cassidy be Brian Kemp?

[Joe Perdicone]

Bill Cassidy lost his chance to be Brian Kemp. If he wanted to be Brian Kemp, he would have switched and ran for governor this cycle and he would have gone full throated against RFK and would have stuck to his principles and carved his lane and as the next sane Republican red state governor. And he chose not to do it. And that's why he's in the situation.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, I think there's some different. There's a differentiation between someone running for federal office and someone running for state office. Don't ask me why, but people just sort of view the governorship as just a different beast. It's why you get people like Andy Besher winning in Kentucky. Right. Andy be sure probably would never win a Senate race in Kentucky, but he can win the governorship in Kentucky. And I think that applies to Brian Kemp too. I think if Brian Kemp were to run for, you know, Senate against some MAGA Republican in Georgia, I, I don't know of how he would fare. I honestly don't know. So I don't think Cassidy's got a bright future here. I, I would take the, the money that he, he doesn't emerge from this intact. But Joe's right. Had he like gone to some sort of statewide office, that probably would have been the smarter path.

[Joe Perdicone]

And, and then that was the theory too, was that maybe he was gonna make this stand against RFK and carve out a lane for governor. That was the kind of optimistic, Aaron Sorkin esque view of things. And I was like, no, he's gonna, he's gonna ruin his life over this.

[Sam Stein]

Doesn't work like that.

[JVL]

Joe, what do you think the odds are that Cassidy sees some early Polling, and it looks really bad for him. And he just decides, I'm gonna nope right out of here. I'm not gonna get humiliated. I'm just gonna retire and let them fight it out. Do you think the pulley will be good enough to convince him to stay and fight it out or. No?

[Joe Perdicone]

I would have thought he'd stick around until I saw Elise Stefanik basically do the same thing where she was just like, I'm screwed. I'm not running anymore. However, it's a very short window, and I can't anticipate a lot of deep polling. If he gets some bad internals. If the NRC gets bad internals and they say, look, you're screwed here, maybe. I find it highly unlikely, though there is a lot more time. It's not like Texas or something where the primary is a month sooner. So he does have time to decide whether or not it's worth it, and it's probably not worth it emotionally.

[JVL]

Sam, what outcome gives you the most satisfaction? The most. The most shameful joy?

[Sam Stein]

I am so beyond satisfaction. It's like I. I can't even muster it up. Same spine is all we have left, I guess the most. Okay, again, the most satisfying outcome is this. The most sad from. From, like, a personal level, it would be if she ran against Cassidy and took him to task for ushering measles. That won't happen. The other outcome that would be interesting to me would be if Cassidy decides, you know what, I'm not going to out trump her. I can at least try to. Maybe there's like a. Like a sliver of normies, and maybe I can win over some indies and, like, I'm going to be conservative as hell, but I'm not going to, like, stand for some of the. That Trump's doing. I'm making myself more vocal. That will never happen either, because we don't live in an Aaron Sorkin TV show. And so there's not really a satisfactory outcome here. I mean, obviously, the Occam's Razor outcome is that he does exactly what Stefanik does. The other Occam's Razor outcome is that he does what Liz Cheney does, which is endures it, and then gets humiliated on election night. Those are the outcomes. Neither of them are satisfactory.

[Joe Perdicone]

There's also the John Coran route where he says Ken Paxton is too woke and tied to the Clintons and tries to stick this thing out.

[Sam Stein]

I can't see that working.

[Joe Perdicone]

It. Well, because.

[Sam Stein]

Because. Because Trump has not. Trump is not endorsed in Texas. Remind, you know, Trump is Not endorsing Paxton or Hunter Cornyn. He's just laying low. And so that's different here.

[JVL]

And last, last question, getaway question. Cassidy had been telling his colleagues, am I correct about this, Joe? He had been saying that I've been told by people in the White House that they're going to stay neutral.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah.

[JVL]

Do we think this is true, that he was told by people in the White House that they were going to stay neutral? Do you think he was just bluffing with his colleagues to make it seem like he was, you know, to be able to be able to raise money and, and make it look like he's going to make a go of it, try to fake it till he'd make it? Do you think he got double crossed by, by people in the White House?

[Joe Perdicone]

I don't doubt that. He was probably told this by somebody, but it, like, it just goes back to the original whole central theme of Trump is that nothing actually matters or is concrete until Trump says it himself. That's all.

[Sam Stein]

I totally think he was told it. I totally think he was told it. And I think Let Low probably was playing coy about going in. And then Trump, Trump's like, he operates on a whim. I'm sure he woke up one day, didn't like something Bill Cassidy had said and was like, you know what? Fuck this guy. And that's that.

[Joe Perdicone]

Yeah.

[Sam Stein]

And it's just, that's just the way it works in this area.

[Joe Perdicone]

And I can tell you, people at the NRC are probably losing sleep. That Trump will impulsively do this to Susan Karnes.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah. It's crazy.

[Joe Perdicone]

My gosh, they're not sleeping well.

[JVL]

Boy can dream. Boy. We got to end on a happy note. Wouldn't that be great? All right, guys, thanks for being here. Listen, fam, hit, like, hit subscribe. There's going to be more of this, more ritual humiliation. Because here's the good thing, here's the silver lining in all of this. America is going to hell on a rocket sled. However, we will also get to see bad things happen to bad people. And that's all we can get from this life. It's all, you know, perfect justice waits for the next life. Right now, we just got to revel in the schadenfreude. We'll see you next time. Good luck, America.

[Sam Stein]

Later.

[Grainger Announcer]

If you're an H VAC technician and a call comes in, Grainger knows that you need a partner that helps you find the right product fast and hassle free. And you know that when the first problem of the day is a clanking blower motor. There's no need to break a sweat. With Grainger's easy to use website and product details, you're confident you'll soon have everything humming right along. Call 1-800-GRAINGER clickgrainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.

[Ninja Creamy Diet Announcer]

Resolutions got you down. Scoop it or swirl it? That's the sound of not giving up. The Ninja Creamy Diet helps you turn protein shakes, vegan milk, and lower sugar recipes into into rich, creamy ice cream at home. No skimping on flavor. Eat dessert. Hit your macros. Repeat. No sacrifice, no stress. Just ice cream that fits your goals. Treat without the cheat Start the Ninja Creamy Diet today.