B (2:41)

So we know the Israelis launch airstrikes at a Hamas HAAS headquarters in Doha. According to Hamas, five of their members were killed. They were lower level members, even though the targets were the higher end leaders of Hamas, including the the head of that office. So it looks like the. The son of the head of that office has died. So if the goal here was to effectively decapitate Hamas's political leadership in Doha, that does not appear to have happened. And we have seen Qatar, or Qatar, however you want to pronounce it, say that they will no longer be mediators in the conflict between Israel and Gaza, in which case that could complicate Trump's goal of one could complicate that war.

A (3:26)

They were the chief mediating country.

B (3:28)

Sure, but. And by the way, I think it will complicate. But. But the reason for the hedge is nothing is to stop necessarily, Steve Woodcoff and other U.S. officials from talking directly to Hamas. They've done it before to say that would work no matter what.

A (3:43)

It's a complication, Alex. You got it.

B (3:47)

Complication.

A (3:49)

I think the context is important here too. We are in God, how many months of fits and starts around a negotiated settlement to the war under Trump. Witkoff has been trying to engineer this. They've been exchanging proposals back and forth. What are the status of the talks prior to this happening?

B (4:08)

So the quick overview, remember that there was a ceasefire and basically the last day of the Biden administration that Witkoff and Trump helped get over the line.

A (4:15)

Yep.

B (4:16)

Then that broke in March and since then the fighting has continued and there has been an attempt to get another ceasefire ongoing. There's been a lot of talk back and forth. Hamas says they agreed to a certain deal, but it was Israel that did. Now then Israel says, no, we've agreed to this, but it's Hamas that's stalling. The US says it's really Hamas's fault. The point is there is no deal. It does not appear that there's ever been close to a deal. And so the war continues.

A (4:40)

Not only does it continue, it seems like it's trending in a more a worse direction. We have reports of a leaflet drop in Gaza City from IDF forces saying evacuate. The assumption being that they're going to the Israeli forces are going to try to take over the city. You have obviously continued reports about famine in Gaza and that happening with the lack of humanitarian aid getting into the country. Other a lot of pressure on Israel to come to the table, but apparently that doesn't appear to be the direction that the Netanyahu government is taking.

B (5:13)

I mean, what pressure? Right. I mean, this is sort of the question. I mean, Trump may keep saying, peace, I want peace, and that maybe is his true genuine desire, but what has he done to pressure the Israeli side of this? It's clear what the pressure on the Hamas side has been today has been a very clear example of that. The Israeli side has not on his end.

A (5:34)

And this is sort of the same thing with the Biden administration. It's like, well, you can say you want an end to the war, but are you willing to take some of the hard steps to effectuate that or use your leverage over Israel, basically?

B (5:43)

Sure. Although the Biden team would say one, they did pause that shipment of 2,000 pound bonds, which was something, but not a lot. And then they would also say that in private. Right. They pushed Bibi and the team to get to end the war. And the question then is, is the Trump team providing that same level of even behind the scenes pressure, which we can all agree was not necessarily, you know, the most effective based on the situation on the ground. But, but is the Trump administration even reaching that level? And it, despite what, you know, Caroline Levitt said today, Trump told Netanyahu, okay, let's, you know, let's push to the end of a war here. That may be the extent.

A (6:20)

Let's talk about how wild, I suppose, or how unprecedented the strike in Doha is today because, look, Israel has become wildly more aggressive in terms of its bombing campaigns in foreign countries. As Axios noted, this is God. What are the seventh country that Israel has targeted? Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, now Qatar. Obviously, Gaza has seen an incredible footprint from the Israeli military. But going in, launching the strike in Doha seems like a whole nother type of exercise here, in part because, as Carolyn Levitt's statement notes, it is a close US Ally, or at least a close Trump ally. They are, we have our largest military base there, and then they sort of infamously gifted Donald Trump a plane. Donald Trump has been there as part of one of his few trips overseas in term number two. So give us a little bit of context for that, just how extraordinary this is.

B (7:19)

This is massive. I was with Trump in Qatar, so I'm kind of surprised this is happening. Yeah. To bomb the mediator, right? I mean, granted it's the Hamas office, but located in the mediator's country is a massive overstep, I think a lot of people would say, and certainly unprecedented recent times. I think this underscores a trend that's really been happening from the Biden administration, but accelerating in recent months, which is Israel, which usually does not have qualms about acting aggressively in the Middle east, usually does so with a semblance of caution, like, they'll be in touch with the US they'll see if there's some coordination. Does this affect XYZ issues? And now you're seeing to the point of attacking multiple countries. Israel's just kind of going and expecting in this case that Trump will go, hey, I want peace, but. And that seems to be the response already.

A (8:11)

And there's some question about how much advance notice the US had about this. I mean the access story that I just referenced, I'm just going to read the lead to you and you tell me if this matches what you heard or just your general reaction to this. On Tuesday morning the US military spotted Israeli jets flying east toward the Gulf. The US sought clarification, but by the time Israel provided it, missiles were already in the air. Three U.S. officials say. So basically no notice.

B (8:34)

Yeah, basically no notice. I mean that basically matches what we've heard and also what Caroline Levitt said, which the US military informed the White House. So this would have been done in real time. And this also somewhat matches, actually not somewhat does match what the Qatari said, which is, hey, we might have, you know, you guys say we got advanced notice, but we heard about this happening basically as the bombs were dropping. Right.

A (8:51)

The Qatari said that the US gave him advanced notice, but that seems totally. Unless they did it instantaneously, that seems impossible to believe.

B (8:59)

Well, so the Qataris are now saying that this notion that they were given sort of a wild advance notice or, you know, enough lead time is not true. Okay, so for the events that we were at piece together, I don't have to say who said it, but this is the events as we know them from that story. The Israelis go, they start preparing these launches. The US military gets a sense of what's going on. Ask the Israelis. The Israelis give the answer. The US military, this being CENTCOM Central Command tells the White House, it's unclear who in the White House, but that that message then gets to the President. President Trump tells Steve Witkoff, the envoy tells the Qataris this is coming. That Witkoff message makes it to the Qataris basically as the bombs are falling. So not a well oiled machine here, certainly not of enough notification and basically shows that the Israelis went ahead with this because they felt they had a good chance to kill Hamas leadership without telling the two other main players in this whole situation.

A (9:54)

If the hypothetical you're talking about actually transpired, it's possible to that that advance notice from Wykoff to the Qataris was enough to make sure that the Hamas delegation found some sort of safe refuge. Although we do know that five members of the delegation have been Killed. So, up in the air, a lot of unknowns at this point. Anything about the Levitt remarks that surprised you?

B (10:16)

I was surprised at how, actually. I mean, granted, she didn't answer all the questions, but she was pretty candid about the situation eventually. I mean, for. For her to say we learned this from the US Military is to say we didn't hear this from the Israelis.

A (10:29)

We didn't hear from the Israelis.

B (10:30)

Yeah. Right. So that. That is. I wouldn't say it's a rebuke, but. But it is. But it is an interesting thing for her to say. The rebuke did come in her saying from the statement from the president, you know, this is counterproductive. I don't remember the exact wording right now.

A (10:45)

This is, quote, does not advance Israel or America's goals. Trump feels, quote, very badly about the location of this attack.

B (10:52)

Yeah, the location. That's interesting. I mean, look, it is, right. As we talked about before, this could likely will complicate Trump's peace efforts here. And one thing we should note, you know, this is now the second time Israel has thwarted a diplomatic attempt that Trump has tried to make. First, he wanted an Iran nuclear deal. Then when Trump saw how well the Israeli campaign was going, he joined in on bombing the nuclear sites. And then in this case, he still, you know, we can question how seriously they were pushing for deal, how close they were, but that was the intention, a diplomatic advance here. And now the Israelis have pretty likely derailed that effort, too. So where does Trump go from here? Where does Trump.

A (11:34)

Well, where does he go from here? What are the options? Honestly, what are the options?

B (11:40)

I'd be making more money if I knew, but I think the first thing I'll be looking for is, does Trump decide that Israel needs to be reeled in in some way? I don't think that's going to happen. So then the question becomes, is there going to be enough pressure on the Hamas side alone that they basically cave to all of Israel's demands? That, to date, seems unlikely, but it's. But that seems to be the theory of the case, that they're just going to pound Hamas into submission.

A (12:06)

Well, that's the Israeli theory of the case, right. Target them wherever and whenever, invade Gaza City, go after their actual negotiators, the people who are ostensibly working on an actual peace deal. And then some point, they submit.

B (12:21)

That. Yeah, but that also seems to be the American theory of the case. Right. Again, as. As often as Trump says, well, if.

A (12:25)

That was the American theory of the case, then Levitt Wouldn't have gone out there and said what she said.

B (12:31)

Well, here's the thing. Trump continues to say, I want peace. But what is the other thing? He says? This is my last. This is the last warning. You know, there's going to be pressure on you. We've had Witkoff in the past basically insinuate attacks were coming. Trump has done it on multiple occasions. I mean, their whole thing is, is this enough Hamas? And if Hamas says no, then more attacks incoming. So the theory of the case is effectively peace through strength here.

A (12:52)

Okay, so it's sort of like a wink nod. We're going to publicly say, ah, we didn't like this. Not the right place, worthy goal. That is actually another quote, but bad location. And then privately be like, we're okay with this because we think it could bring Hamas to its knees.

B (13:07)

It's possible. I mean, look, to your point, when you say worthy goal, Kill Hamas. Kill Hamas.

A (13:12)

I didn't say it. I didn't say.

B (13:13)

No, no, no, no. Sorry. No. I just want to be clear. The quote. No, you're.

A (13:17)

How dare you.

B (13:19)

No, but it's true what the administration keeps saying, you know, it's a worthy goal. Right? What is Israel has to think about other than, okay, Hamas is fair game now, granted, the Qatar of it all leads to more.

A (13:31)

Well, that's the other question, I guess. What is. What does Qatar do next? I mean, they. They're obviously quite pissed. I think the prime minister called it treacherous. They're not happy with what transpired here. They didn't get a forewarning. I suppose they might blame the United States for not giving them a forewarning, but you know what happens to the relations here between us and in Qatar?

B (13:57)

Well, this is going to be the interesting thing, right? So Cutter has already said they're not going to be mediators anymore. Now, of course, course, Qatar has Al Air Base. That's where Trump went to give the speech. That's where I was with him. That's an important US Regional base. Does Qatar decide, okay, if this kind of grows into a bigger, bigger thing, do they decide to kick the US Out? I don't think that happens. It's important for Cutter to have the US There, and it's important for the US to stay there. But it's possible that they just decide, okay, we're not going to be your interlocutor with Hamas anymore. We're not going to be interlocked with other insights in other key Middle Eastern issues or maybe other diplomatic issues you'd like to pursue. In which case the US has lost a diplomatic partner. That might not actually anger a lot of people in the Trump coalition. There are some folks like Steve Woodcoff, Tucker Carlson, I think Qatar is great and a partner for peace. There are others that see them as duplicitous by hosting Hamas and also having close ties to Iran. And they actually think it would be better for the US to cut off ties with. So this could be a moment in which there's sort of an inter, you know, MAGA Republican fight over how useful is Qatar now, especially if it's not going to be a mediator in Gaza anymore.

A (15:03)

All right, my last question. I say it kind of tongue in cheek, but I do mean it seriously. Wyckoff, his two portfolio items are not going well. Like, they're just not. That being Russia, Ukraine and now obviously Israel, Gaza. He's like, reportedly in Miami a week ago talking to Eric Adams. Not sure why he's doing that when he's got all this other stuff going on. Is there any internal pressure around the guy being like he's not up for the task?

B (15:33)

None. And actually three portfolios. Iran. There's still no Iran deal, even though Trump seems happy with the, you know, the progress after bombing, the outcome of the strikes. I mean, look, there's no pressure on him. But I will say I've talked to a lot of former special envoys and what they all unanimously say is that the original sin here is not necessarily that Witkoff is inexperienced, but that Witkoff took on so many portfolios because Trump gave it to him. Like, one of these portfolios in and of themselves would be enough to take up an entire calendar, let alone three of them, and then add the fact that he's relatively new to a lot of these issues, and that just makes it extremely hard for him to do the job that he's been assigned to do. It also doesn't help that Trump waivers from one day, let's take the Iran case from, hey, Israel, let's, you know, let's not attack Iran. We need to get a deal here to, hey, this, this campaign, pretty cool. I'm going to join you.

A (16:25)

Yeah.

B (16:26)

And, and then in the same vein, you know, I want a deal between Israel and Hamas and the war in Gaza. And then I'll say, but this is my final warning. And then either implicitly or whatever, through, through the way the policy is going, allowing these kinds of strikes. So Woodcock has not been put in the easiest position to be extremely fair to him. But he did also take on these assignments and though it's fair to, you know, he's. He's in the arena.

A (16:47)

Hey, you're in the arena, buddy. All right. Alex Ward, who was great, except he mispronounced Katar, so.

B (16:53)

I'm so sorry.

A (16:54)

It's okay. We'll forgive you for this. Right, Buerk? Yes. All right. Alex Ward. Thanks you, man. Appreciate it. For those who endured this, thank you for doing that, too. Subscribe to our feed. Subscribe and share it with others. We appreciate it. Talk to you later, buddy.