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Hey, it's Will Saletan from the Bulwark. Remember all that stuff Donald Trump said about the war in Iran? That it was over and we won and we had a deal and gas prices were going to come down and they were going to stay down? Well, turns out it was all bs. The deal is off, the war's back on, the price of oil is going right back up, and more American troops are getting killed. Why?
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Why?
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Because Donald Trump is a complete idiot. What I'm going to show you today is how he's trying, pathetically, to lie his way through this absolute fiasco as it exposes him for the fool he is. So let's go back a month, to the middle of June. That is when Trump signed his deal with Iran, and he told the press it was a very powerful document.
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I mean, I want it to be released because it's a very powerful document. It's not like the Obama document, which was just a terrible document. This is a very powerful document.
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Oh, no, no, it's not like that. That ridiculous Obama deal. No, this deal. This deal is powerful. But then. But then a couple of days later, a reporter asked Trump about this. This very powerful deal. And here is what Trump said. So you're threatening to bomb Iran if they don't comply, but there's nothing enforceable
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in the deal itself, is that correct?
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Doesn't have to be. I let him know. I said, look, if you don't adhere to the agreement, I don't want to do that, but we're going to bomb the hell out of you.
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In other words, Trump lied. The deal had no power at all. The only way to enforce the deal was to go back and bomb Iran again. But. But Trump said, oh, we didn't need to worry about enforcing the deal because. Because Iran had new leaders. And the new leaders, he said, were really, really good.
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But they have a new group of leaders that I think is actually, I think they're smarter. I think they're very smart. I think they're far less radicalized. And I think they're. I think they're really good. They love their country, frankly. I think that's regime change. I think they're going to behave much differently. I think they see a different way of life.
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So that was Trump's bet. The new leaders of Iran were good guys, and they were going to be totally different from the. From the bad old guys. But then Trump did an interview with Mark Caputo, who is a reporter for Axios, and Caputo pointed out that the new leaders of Iran were A lot like the old leaders.
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And we're dealing with a third group who I actually think is the smartest group. And I actually think it's regime change, if you want to know the truth. It's. These are different people.
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How was it regime change if you know?
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Because they're different people.
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What you have Khamenei Jr. You still have a lot of IRGC officials there.
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They're different people. All right, how many juniors different from the father?
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You have a number.
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And we have people that are much less radicalized.
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You can see in that clip, people around Trump told him. They told him he was wrong. They told him, hey, you know, the new leader of Iran, the new leader is literally the son of the old leader. He's another ayatollah. And the irgc, that's the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, they were still in power. But Trump just. He just blew it off. He said, oh, no, oh, no. The new government is totally, totally different. In fact, he was so confident in these. In these new leaders of Iran that he blabbed in that interview about how he was. He was done bombing Iran. He said more bombing would not help. He said it would just make everything worse.
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The only way I can get tougher is if I go in there for another two or three weeks and continue to bomb the hell out of him. Right. But what does that get us? The strait of our moves will not be open. Let's say I did that. Let's say I decided to do that. If we're not going to put boots on the ground, Okay. I mean, you don't want boots on the ground, Right. If we're not going to put boots on the ground, probably the same people, you know, they go deep into the caves. They're called granite caves. They're very powerful. They go deep, and then when we stop, they'll come up, and they'll probably be the same leaders.
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So here's Trump on worldwide video telling the leaders of Iran that he didn't believe more bombing would do anything. It wouldn't change the regime because they'd just go underground. Right. And then they'd come back. They'd come back up, and it wouldn't open the Strait of Hormuz, where the oil comes out. Trump even told them he wouldn't send in ground troops. You saw him say it. Right, Right there. So Iran didn't need to worry about that either. Right. And Trump would not shut up. He told Caputo that if the US Continued to bomb Iran, Iran would put mines in the strait. Right. And there would be missiles flying over the strait and oil tankers would stop coming out of the strait and the stock market, the stock market would, would plummet.
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We would right now have, the Hormuz Strait would be totally closed. You would have mines all over it and it would have missiles flying over billion dollar ships. But if I attack them, none of those ships are leaving. If I went further, the stock market would be much lower. Now think of this. I have one primary wish as president in terms of people. I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover. So this is the kind of thing that could cause a worldwide depression.
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I just want to pause here so we can appreciate what, what an unbelievable moron Donald Trump is.
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This segment is sponsored by the New York Times. Yes, the New York Times. So on Sunday, Donald Trump flew on the Qatari donated jet that's been made into the new era Air Force One. And as the Times reported, Trump told reporters that the new plane will be taken out of service to be, in his words, maxed out. Times has been ahead of the story from the beginning. Earlier this month, experts and administration officials spoke to the Times about the security concerns they had with the jet. Now, days later, the White House started a leak investigation. Because their reporting was so well sourced, they subpoenaed the New York Times reporters. Now look, the foundation of the news commentary is fact based reporting. This show and every other show with commentary on current events really does depend on original fact based reporting. I'm constantly looking to the New York Times to stay informed because I know I can trust that paper. And it's especially true for reporting surrounding the new Air Force One. They've been at the front of this story from the beginning. Without fact based reporting like this, the rest of us are just left guessing. So wherever you seek it out nationally, locally, support fact based reporting.
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He's telling Iran one, the only way he can enforce the deal they signed is to resume bombing. And two and two, he's telling them he can't resume bombing because it won't accomplish anything and it'll backfire. He's telling them, he's telling them that his threats are empty. In fact, he's telling Iran exactly how they, how they can have power over him. He tells them that if they mine the strait and if they fire missiles over the strait, they can choke off the flow of oil and they can crater the stock market. And he says, he says that is the one punishment he can't bear. He's, he's afraid of being, he's afraid of being Herbert Hoover. This Incredible idiot told Iran exactly how to beat us. Oh, but that's okay, he said, because Iran doesn't even have any missiles. Here's what Trump said four days after that interview on June 23.
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Now we're leaving Iran with no navy, no air force, no anti aircraft, no missile capability, no nuclear program, no missile capability.
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He says it right there. No missile capability. Okay, so that was June 23rd. Two days later, on June 25th, Iran attacked ships in the strait, and the US hit back, but Iran just kept shooting. And Trump said everything was cool. Here he is talking to The Press on July 1.
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The denuclearization of Iran is moving along well. They've had very good meetings, and we'll see. We hit them very hard for three nights, as you know, but we're getting along very well.
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And here he is in a speech the same day.
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The oil is dropping, like nobody thought possible, but I told you it would. Total control. We have total control of everything.
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Total control, he said. Total control. But then Iran fired more missiles into the Strait and they hit three ships. And. And now Trump said, oh, he was very surprised and, and very angry.
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I don't want to deal with them anymore. They're scum. You know what scum is? They're scum. They're sick people.
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Wait a minute now. Now they're bad people. Like, like he didn't know this before and the press called him on it. I'm going to show you what Trump said at his press conference on July 8th. Watch Marco Rubio in the background.
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Last month, you said Iranian leaders were very rational people, nice people to deal with, strong people, smart people. Today you said they were scum, sick
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people, and being led by sick people. What changed?
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And do you think I got to know?
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So wait, can we pause? Can we pause it right there? Look at that. There's Rubio laughing. Trump told Americans that there was a new regime in Iran and that the new leaders were good guys and the war was over. And now he says, oops. So he was either an idiot or a liar or both. Rubio thinks it's hilarious. He thinks it's cute. So what you're looking at there is a picture of a moron with a cynic standing behind him. And then incredibly, on the plane coming home from that press conference, Trump said Iran had just called him again, and he said they still wanted to make a deal.
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We've already won militarily. They have very little. They have very little left. And they want to make a deal so badly. They called a little while ago. They want to make a deal so badly.
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So badly. I mean. I mean, they were begging, right? So a reporter asked the obvious question. If they want to make a deal, why do you think they attacked commercial vessels?
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Because it's sort of crazy, to be honest with you. It's sort of crazy. They're a little bit out of control, but they want to make a deal badly.
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They're good, they're nice, they're sick, they're scum, they're crazy. This guy can't even figure out what he thinks. And instead of admitting that he was wrong, he went right back to telling America that everything was going to be great. Mr. President, it seems that the war
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with Iran may start again.
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What do you expect from your European allies?
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I don't think it's going to start again. I think it's going to go very quickly.
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Oh, yeah, it's going to go very, very quickly. So. So that was July 8th. That was two weeks ago. But Iran kept shooting. They hit more ships, they hit our allies. But Trump said, don't worry, don't worry. He said, we're wiping him out. Here he is. A week ago on July 14th on Fox News.
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You go along the shoreline to the strait, and what's happening now, the one way drones and all the different things that we're doing, we are just wiping them out.
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The Iranians are still counterattacking.
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They have a capacity for, for pain. But this isn't even pain. They're being their whole facility, their whole country, everything they have offensive and also defense is being wiped out.
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You can see the interviewer, Trey Yingst, he's telling Trump that Iran is still attacking. But Trump just keeps repeating, oh, don't worry, we're wiping him out. We're wiping out all the drones. And then on Friday, Iran fired missiles at an American base in Jordan and they killed two more American soldiers. And an Iranian drone killed another American in Iraq. And on Sunday, when a reporter asked about those fatalities, Trump just repeated that Iran had been wiped out. And he said we had total, total control of the Strait.
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Iran has been very, very badly damaged. They've lost everything, almost militarily. They've got very little left. They've got some missiles, they've got some drones, they've got some manufacturing ability. Not much. We control the strait. They don't control anything.
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That is complete bunk. Shipping in the strait is down more than 70%. We are not in control. Oil and gas prices are going right back up, and so are American casualties. In fact, we just found out on Monday that nearly 100American service members have been injured in the war in just the last two weeks. Trump and his flunkies, they didn't even tell us. And then today, another reporter asked the President what he's going to do now that the war is back on. And Trump responded. He responded by calling her fake news. He said the real story was that behind the scenes, Iran is secretly, secretly begging us for another ceasefire. Mr. President, there are no signs that Iran is ready to stop fighting. So. So what is the plan? Is the plan.
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How would you know? How would you know if there are no signs? What, you know something that I don't know?
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Well, they continue to attack our allies,
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but you don't know what the dialogue is behind the scenes, that they want to meet desperately to try and end it because they're getting decimated. You don't get that when you listen to your fake station. But you don't know. You don't know anything.
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That is classic Trump. What you can see with your own eyes, right? Iran launching missiles and drones and killing Americans. Oh, that's all fake news. No, don't watch the news, says Trump. Just listen to me. Look, we know what this guy is. He's a pathological liar. When he signed that deal with Iran last month, he committed himself to a story. The story was that Iran had surrendered and Iran was going to comply, and all the fighting was over. And Trump thinks. He thinks he can keep telling that story no matter how long the war goes on. Good luck with that.
Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Host: Will Saletan (The Bulwark)
Guests/Voices: Donald Trump (clips), Reporters
Date: July 22, 2026
Will Saletan delivers a blistering critique of Donald Trump’s handling of the recent Iran conflict, highlighting how Trump’s public statements not only exaggerated US success but, crucially, disclosed strategic weaknesses—effectively signaling to Iran exactly how to undermine US efforts. Through a detailed timeline, Saletan illustrates what he calls Trump’s “combination of idiocy and dishonesty” as the conflict escalates and Trump’s narrative unravels.
"He's telling Iran one, the only way he can enforce the deal they signed is to resume bombing. And two...he can't resume bombing because it won't accomplish anything and it'll backfire. He's telling them...his threats are empty."
"If we're not going to put boots on the ground...they go deep into the caves...when we stop, they'll come up, and they'll probably be the same leaders."
"We know what this guy is. He's a pathological liar. When he signed that deal with Iran last month, he committed himself to a story...and Trump thinks he can keep telling that story no matter how long the war goes on. Good luck with that."
The episode is cutting, sarcastic, and urgent. Saletan’s delivery is biting, relentless, and loaded with exasperation at Trump’s contradictions and dishonesty. The commentary punctuates Trump’s audio clips, emphasizing both the absurdity and the consequences of Trump’s public statements and spin.
Will Saletan demonstrates, with transcripts and recent events, how Trump’s mixture of bravado and recklessness directly undermined US interests in the Iran conflict, while his public messaging only deepened the fiasco. The episode’s core message: Trump was not only outmaneuvered—he told Iran how to do it, then lied to Americans about the results.