Bulwark Takes – "Trump Went to War Without a Plan. Now He's Scrambling to Get Out." (w/ Tom Nichols) | Command Post
Date: April 9, 2026
Host: Ben Parker
Guests: Mark Hertling, Tom Nichols
Theme: Dissecting the erratic course and strategic consequences of the U.S.-Iran conflict under President Trump, the questionable "ceasefire," and the Pentagon's internal upheavals.
Episode Overview
This episode centers on the state of the U.S.-Iran war, the ambiguous “ceasefire” framework, and the collapse of strategic purpose underlying America’s involvement. Ben Parker, Mark Hertling, and Tom Nichols provide candid analysis of Trump’s impulsive approach, the disarray at the Pentagon, and the broader strategic, moral, and civil-military lessons. The team also reflects on the failure of U.S. process, the erosion of the "moral high ground," and internal purges affecting military leadership.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The “Ceasefire” That Isn’t (00:46–04:40)
- Confusion and Lack of Clarity:
At the time of recording, a "10-point plan" between the U.S. and Iran supposedly exists, but its substance and mutual buy-in are dubious—particularly regarding Israeli actions in Lebanon.
- Israel Not on Board: Israel rejects certain terms, and Iranians have again closed the Strait of Hormuz, claiming Israeli violations of a ceasefire Israel never accepted.
"If it's not double sided, it's not actually a ceasefire." – Tom Nichols (02:16)
- Trump’s Motive:
Trump is described as seeking exit at any cost, motivated by frustration and indifference.
"He's like an angry 6 year old... He takes his toys and goes home." – Tom Nichols (02:40)
- Pentagon’s Premature “Wrap Up”:
Pentagon briefings feel like end-of-war wrap-ups despite ongoing hostilities. U.S. tone is more about statistical “achievements” than durable strategy or negotiated outcomes.
2. The Anatomy of Strategic Failure (04:46–12:28)
- One-sided “Ceasefire” = Surrender:
The dangers of U.S. unilaterally stopping hostilities while Iran/Iranian proxies continue.
"The doctrinal term [for a one sided ceasefire]? It's called a surrender." – Tom Nichols (04:46)
"I think the doctrine term is bullshit." – Mark Hertling (04:49)
- Metrics Over Objectives:
U.S. officials tout munitions expended and targets hit rather than any coherent end-state.
"All the Trump administration and all General Kane can say is, well, we launched a lot of bombs." – Ben Parker (08:17)
- Iranians Dictate Terms:
Iran is clear about their demands—lifting sanctions, controlling shipping lanes, uranium enrichment—while the U.S. lacks clear policy outcomes.
"The Iranians are dictating what the end of this war looks like." – Ben Parker (08:17)
- Body Count Mentality & Vietnam Echoes:
"It is a body count mentality." – Mark Hertling (09:53)
"Very Vietnam." – Tom Nichols, Ben Parker (09:58–10:00)
- Misunderstanding the Middle East:
The administration’s focus on killing individuals, not institutions, misreads how power and resilience are structured in Iran.
"The individuals aren't important. The institutions are important. The institutions still exist in Iran... The IRGC is still there, battered, to be sure." – Mark Hertling (11:01)
3. Civil-Military Dysfunction and the Pentagon Purge (12:28–14:38)
- Leadership Vacuum:
SECDEF Hegseth is called out as dangerously unqualified, a cheerleader obsessed with body counts, not strategy.
“This isn’t Halo... these are real human beings on both sides... Hegseth seems to have about the mentality of a 14 year old about all of this.” – Tom Nichols (13:35)
- Hostility to Expertise:
Trump administration’s expulsion of experienced Iran hands and subject-matter experts brings strategic myopia.
"How many Iran experts do you think they had in the room saying, hey, here's a little bit of history with Iran?" – Ben Parker (14:38)
4. Who’s Accountable? & Personalities in the Room (15:44–18:08)
- Passing the Buck:
Many in Trump's inner circle are distancing themselves from war decisions, refusing to claim ownership.
"Despite all the gaslighting about what a great victory this is... how many people have lined up to talk to the press and say, it wasn't my idea?... There was nobody in the room." – Tom Nichols (16:02)
- Cabinet Infighting:
The episode notes public displays by officials like Dan Driscoll (Secretary of the Army) asserting he’s “not going anywhere”—usually a sign someone is about to be ousted.
5. Israeli Influence & the High Ground (19:48–22:33)
- Netanyahu’s Influence:
The administration took advice from Israeli PM Netanyahu uncritically, buying into promises of a quick victory and regime collapse.
"The only Middle east expert in the room, apparently was Bibi Netanyahu." – Tom Nichols (15:44)
- On the "Moral High Ground":
Discussion of how U.S. rhetoric and indiscriminate actions undermine America’s traditional claims to moral leadership.
"You want to commit genocide against the Persians who were about, oh, I don't know, 6,000 years on Earth... Seriously, you want to do that?" – Mark Hertling (21:56)
6. Fallout for U.S. Allies and Reputational Damage (23:22–24:12)
- Abandoned Partners:
Patterns of abandonment—Afghans, Kurds, Ukrainians, East Asians—are noted, with America's reliability as an ally in doubt.
"We're not a good ally anymore, and we haven't been for some time." – Ben Parker (23:40)
7. Lessons Learned? (24:37–29:51)
- War College Takeaways:
Military schools will treat this war as full of low-level operational success but catastrophic senior-level strategic failure.
"At the senior service level, it's going to be the opposite case of a tremendous strategic failure because the operational successes and the strategic goals didn't align." – Tom Nichols (26:18)
- Civil-Military Relations Breakdown:
The separation, not integration, of military and civilian decision-making “needs to be addressed at a very senior level.”
"This was a complete shit show of civil military affairs... that needs to be addressed at a very senior level within the military in tandem with civilian policymakers and thinkers." – Tom Nichols (28:24)
- Loss of Process:
Functionally no National Security Council; critical interagency process is missing.
"There was functionally no National Security Council here... The National Security Council is the President's private think tank... and just didn't exist." – Tom Nichols (30:02)
8. Ultimate Assessment & Memorable Closers
- Trump’s Unreadiness & Refusal to Listen:
"He doesn't know what he's doing and he doesn't [listen]." – Tom Nichols (32:51)
-
Pop Culture Summation:
Tom Nichols: “My plan went to shit. Let's see how you do.” (33:22)
Mark Hertling: “One band, one sound. We haven't been there in a long time.” (34:12)
-
Moral High Ground Dodged:
Caroline Levitt, in a White House presser, defends Trump by citing effectiveness against Iran’s regime, but sidesteps the deeper question of morality in war.
“The President absolutely has the moral high ground... for you to even suggest otherwise is frankly insulting.” – Caroline Levitt (37:38)
Hertling’s rejoinder:
"I think Ms. Levitt actually dodge the question completely or else she doesn't understand the concept of moral high ground." (38:10)
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
- “If it's not double sided, it's not actually a ceasefire.” – Tom Nichols (02:16)
- “He's like an angry 6 year old... He takes his toys and goes home.” – Tom Nichols (02:40)
- “The doctrinal term [for a one sided ceasefire]? It's called a surrender.” – Tom Nichols (04:46)
- “The difference was... we left them with something. That they had to then take to get to Tom's point that this was a wrap up today and there had already been violations of. I'm not going to call it a ceasefire. I'm going to call it a, a temporary cessation of hostilities.” – Mark Hertling (05:12)
- “The Iranians are dictating what the end of this war looks like.” – Ben Parker (08:17)
- “It is a body count mentality.” – Mark Hertling (09:53)
- “This isn’t Halo... these are real human beings on both sides.” – Tom Nichols (13:35)
- “We're not a good ally anymore, and we haven't been for some time.” – Ben Parker (23:40)
- “He doesn't know what he's doing and he doesn't [listen].” – Tom Nichols (32:51)
- “My plan went to shit. Let's see how you do.” – Tom Nichols (33:22, quoting 'Streets of Fire')
- “One band, one sound. We haven't been there in a long time, either.” – Mark Hertling (34:12)
- “The President absolutely has the moral high ground... for you to even suggest otherwise is frankly insulting.” – Caroline Levitt (37:38)
- “I think Ms. Levitt actually dodge the question completely or else she doesn't understand the concept of moral high ground.” – Mark Hertling (38:10)
Major Segments & Timestamps
- State of play on the "ceasefire" and its legitimacy – 00:46–04:40
- Military briefings & real situation on the ground – 04:40–12:28
- Civil-military dysfunction and Pentagon’s leadership purge – 12:28–18:08
- Israeli influence and the loss of strategic clarity – 19:48–22:33
- Fallout for allies and broader international impact – 23:22–24:12
- Lessons for the military and government process – 24:37–29:51
- The collapse of process and no NSC – 30:02–32:51
- Pop culture analogies, summary, and chat on the Pentagon purge/moral high ground – 33:02–39:12
Tone & Conclusion
- Frank, direct, and critical: The discussion pulls no punches, painting a picture of strategic confusion, loss of U.S. prestige and credibility, and a deeply broken process at the highest levels.
- Urgency and historical perspective: Both military and political perspectives stress that these failures are not just errors, but foundational threats to America’s strategic position and relationships.
- Hopeful but realistic: Mark maintains some optimism for recovery, but all recognize the road ahead is fraught and requires deep institutional and cultural change.
This summary delivers a comprehensive account of the episode for those who haven't listened, highlighting the key themes, expert commentary, and memorable moments with appropriate timestamps and speaker attribution.