Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes Episode Title: Trump's Big Beautiful Trade Wars Are Going Off The Rails
Release Date: May 30, 2025
Host: The Bulwark Team (Featuring Sam Stein and Guest Greta Peisch)

Introduction

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, Sam Stein, the managing editor, welcomes Greta Peisch, the former General Counsel at the U.S. Trade Representative and current partner at Wiley. Greta, an expert in trade law, joins Sam to dissect the complexities surrounding President Trump's tariffs and the ensuing legal battles.

Legal Developments Surrounding Trump's Tariffs

Court of Appeals' Stay on Tariffs

• Current Situation: Greta explains that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has issued a stay on a previous ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade. The initial ruling had invalidated a significant portion of Trump's tariffs, stating they overstepped the Emergency Economic Powers Act.

• Implications: The stay maintains the tariffs in effect while the Supreme Court reviews the case. Greta clarifies that the tariffs haven't been retracted but are on hold pending further judicial consideration.

  Greta Peisch [01:24]: "The tariffs were still on today and were probably going to be on for, you know, a week or more as the administration took the those steps."

Court of International Trade's Ruling

• Legal Basis: The court found that the administration misapplied the Emergency Economic Powers Act, a statute traditionally used to sanction nations like Iran and Russia, not for imposing tariffs.

• Key Findings:

  • Worldwide Tariffs: The court determined that applying tariffs globally exceeded the statute's authority.
  • Sector-Specific Tariffs: Tariffs aimed at addressing fentanyl and immigration issues were deemed indirect and not directly addressing the stated emergencies.

  Greta Peisch [05:05]: "They don't really deal with that emergency... putting tariffs on underwear from China doesn't really directly address this fentanyl crisis."

Judicial Caution on Defining Emergencies

• Greta points out that the courts avoided declaring whether the situations justified emergency powers, leaving such determinations to the executive branch.

  Greta Peisch [05:28]: "The courts don't like to get into telling a president what an is and is not an emergency."

Impact on Trade Negotiations and the "90 Deals in 90 Days" Initiative

Paused Tariffs and Negotiation Timelines

• With the stay in place, the previously aggressive timeline for negotiating trade deals—aimed at securing 90 agreements in 90 days—is disrupted.

• Historical Context: Typically, comprehensive trade negotiations, especially those aiming to overhaul existing agreements, can span months or even years due to the complexity and scope involved.

  Greta Peisch [07:10]: "They've been pretty ambitious in what they said that they wanted to do... something like that would take months, if not a year usually."

Current Negotiation Status

• Greta highlights that recent announcements, such as the U.S.-UK framework, were preliminary and intended to outline aspirational goals rather than final agreements.

• Administrative Strategy: The administration appears to be extending pauses on tariffs to continue negotiating details, signaling potential delays in meeting the 90-day target.

  Greta Peisch [07:16]: "Maybe sort of extending those pauses that were in place out that sort of felt like the direction that that was heading."

Future Implications and Administrative Responses

Leverage Through Alternative Authorities

• Facing judicial setbacks, the administration is likely to seek alternative avenues to impose tariffs or exert pressure on trade partners.

• Plan B and C: Greta anticipates that the administration will assert confidence in winning the current cases and may explore other tariff authorities if necessary.

  Greta Peisch [09:21]: "They have other options. There are other tariff authorities. They might not be as fast or flexible or as desirable as AIPA in many ways, but we can still use those authorities to achieve the same objectives."

Impact on Trade Partners

• Trade partners, such as the UK, Canada, Mexico, and China, are cautious but remain engaged in discussions, aware that non-compliance could lead to harsher tariff measures.

  Greta Peisch [10:07]: "You trading partner, you should keep talking to us because you know, that is what could happen to you if, if we don't come to an agreement."

Sector-Specific Agreements

• Notably, the UK has secured concessions under sectoral tariffs related to steel, aluminum, and autos, which were not affected by the recent judicial decisions.

  Greta Peisch [10:20]: "They achieved concessions on sectoral tariffs under section 232... They got a hundred thousand Rolls Royce."

Conclusion and Future Outlook

Anticipated Administrative Actions

• Greta expects the administration to remain steadfast in its tariff objectives, utilizing available legal frameworks and developing contingency plans to maintain leverage in trade negotiations.

  Greta Peisch [11:23]: "The administration is going to have a plan B and C to achieve the tariff objectives that the president has."

Uncertain Judicial Outcomes

• While the courts' decisions remain unpredictable, the administration's determination suggests a continuation of tariff strategies, whether through existing or new authorities.

Personal Anecdote

• Sam humorously shares a personal note about anticipating a Rolls Royce purchase, referencing the UK's sectoral tariff concessions.

  Sam Stein [11:01]: "Now, we were celebrating in the Stein household because of our impending Rolls Royce purchase."

Closing Remarks

Sam Stein wraps up the discussion by thanking Greta Peisch for her insights, acknowledging the complexity of the topic, and expressing anticipation to share the episode with their audience.

Notable Quotes Recap:

• Greta Peisch [01:24]: "The tariffs were still on today and were probably going to be on for, you know, a week or more as the administration took the those steps."
• Greta Peisch [05:05]: "They don't really deal with that emergency... putting tariffs on underwear from China doesn't really directly address this fentanyl crisis."
• Greta Peisch [09:21]: "They have other options. There are other tariff authorities. They might not be as fast or flexible or as desirable as AIPA in many ways, but we can still use those authorities to achieve the same objectives."
• Sam Stein [11:01]: "Now, we were celebrating in the Stein household because of our impending Rolls Royce purchase."

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the ongoing legal and administrative battles over Trump's tariffs, the challenges in trade negotiations, and the potential future strategies the administration might employ to achieve its trade objectives.