Sarah Longwell (2:41)

My real take is that you can go on vacation for a week, and when you come back, we're going to be at exactly the same place.

Sam Stein (2:46)

Right.

Sarah Longwell (2:46)

We keep jumping on in the weekend. And then, like, Trump does something to calm the market, usually just before Monday, and then often tries to calm the market before everybody leaves on. Before it closes on Fridays. And so sometimes you get sort of like rational behavior in these spurts when he feels like the pressure's on and then he just freaks out and starts bleeding on Truth Social, which is how we conduct foreign policy these days. And I want to say this has been chaotic from the start. So I was following this this morning, and I was trying to figure out who, who they were sending on the envoy. And there were mixed reports coming out about who was even going. Was J.D. vance the lead negotiator, or was it going to be Witkoff and Jared? Like, which of these three stooges was going to be the one to see this deal fall apart? Turns out it was Trump with his thumbs, actually, who. Because he's again, threatening to bomb everything. Like, the truth sounds very similar to the ones before. It's like, if you don't sign this deal, which is a deal he says already happened, but if you don't sign this deal, we're going to bomb all your stuff again, I guess.

Sam Stein (3:47)

You know, I had this sort of sensation that it's classic Trump in the worst way, right? It's like, oh, everyone just assumes that this is a negotiating tactic and he's just, you know, talking this maximalist posture and that it's really not going to happen. But why do we have to assume that? Like, why do we have to play by these rules at some point, you know, maybe he does go forward with it, but it's just, it's an absurd thing to threaten to wipe out power plants and kill a bunch of people as a negotiating tactic. So you can see right here, it's a lot of words, but eventually gets down to something about. And I hope they take it, because if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant, every single bridge in Iran. No more Mr. Nice Guy. They'll come down fast. Talking about oil prices, they'll come down easy. And if they don't take the deal, it will be my honor to do what has to be done. And it's just like we've been here before.

Sarah Longwell (4:40)

And this is the thing. The Iranians know we've been here before, right? Like this is the problem. I mean, look, there's a million problems with conducting foreign policy on his janky personal social media site, but one of them is he's already threatened to take out an entire civilization. We've already been on, hey, Trump's going to bomb everything. Watch. And guess what he did. It seems like, especially in retrospect now with the information we have, he made up a fake. Like maybe they did restart negotiations, but he was like, it's all over, it's done, we've got a deal. And then, remember, we started seeing different versions of the points of the deal come out. It became clear pretty quickly these were not conditions that we could possibly agree to. Not without America being not only humiliated, but in like a much worse position than when we started. So now the Iranians are like, well, this guy just says stuff and you know, he's so afraid, he's too afraid to do anything.

Sam Stein (5:33)

Well, just to backtrack. So the initial, I'm hoping I get the chronology right here, but they had announced a tentative agreement around ten point principle plan. And the ten point plan was, to your point, it would have made the Obama era deal look like, you know, a diplomatic feat. It was huge sanctions relief, billions of dollars for the Iranians, no real long term cap on their nuclear ambitions. And then in exchange, the Strait of Hormuz would still be told by the Iranians. So it was like all these things that it didn't make sense. It would put us in a worse position.

Sarah Longwell (6:10)

Remember at one point we were going to do joint tolls with the Iranians.

Sam Stein (6:14)

Remember Trump announced with crypto or something

Sarah Longwell (6:16)

like that, like that wasn't a real thing. And also when you talking about the Obama deal, this is actually, these are actually different things. Like following this is, is impossible. But at one point it was, we are going to give them, I can't remember how many billions.

Sam Stein (6:30)

20 billion.

Sarah Longwell (6:31)

20 billion, I believe, in order to secure uranium rights. Which then the Iranians quickly said, yeah, we're not giving that to you. Like, that's not a thing that's happening. And so we, I mean, I've always said that we can't trust our government in this. Like, you cannot trust Trump on any of this, but you really can't. I mean, literally everything coming out seems to be disproven. In short order.

Sam Stein (6:53)

Well, let's. Can we stand there for a second? Because this is the, this is the theme, right? It's like, what can you trust from him? So the, the contras of any agreement that he's announcing seem to be easily disproven within a couple hours. On the flip side, these maximalist threats to wipe out the civilization, bomb all the power plants, so on and so forth, take out the bridges, I guess you can't trust those either because he always, I don't want to say chickens out. He always doesn't take that ramp. And yet I find myself not willing to completely dismiss the idea that he'd be willing to do that. Am I foolish for that? I don't know. It's like I still find myself bothered by, and scared for the possibility that he will go forward with some sort of insane quasi genocidal campaign in Iran.

Sarah Longwell (7:45)

I mean, I don't think that that's wrong of you because ultimately what happens here is you get into a battle of egos and like, this is because this is Trump's war, because he launched it without Congress and because he doesn't have real negotiators next to him, this is a war. Now of Trump's id, like, we all, we, I think we've all believed in different permutations across the bulwark that he would find some way out of this that was meant to be face saving. But we also all said that, like, that might not be possible because the other side was going to have a vote on this.

Sam Stein (8:16)

Well, hold on. Because there was a way, it's not like a full way out, but like, let's just put it, the Straight of Hormuz, right? As of a couple days ago, there was some sort of agreement that it would be reopened and that maybe they would do a toll on some ships. But it was going to be open. Trump announced it. And then Trump went ahead and was like, you know what? We're keeping the blockade on Iran in place. Which then prompted the Iranians to say, well, then if you're going to do that, we're going to close the Straight of Moose. And we just got word like this afternoon that there are now zero ships. Zero ships. This is from the Kobiasi letter, which has been monitoring stuff. Zero oil tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz today. It appears that the Straight of Hormuz is now completely closed. This is the first time in history. And that's because the blockade. So he does. I just want to say there are kind of off ramps. If he's one, take it. But he keeps it up and stepping on rakes.

Sarah Longwell (9:12)

Yeah. And I don't know if you. Did you see this? That they are. They got passage for a couple ships like they were sanctioned to go through, and then the Iranians started to fire on them. And so it's the people in the ships saying, you told us we could go.

Sam Stein (9:23)

Sepa Navy.

Sarah Longwell (9:24)

Sepa Navy.

Sam Stein (9:25)

This is motoring as. You gave me clearance to go.

Sarah Longwell (9:29)

My name second on your list.

Sam Stein (9:32)

You gave me clearance to go. You are fighting. Now let me turn back.

Sarah Longwell (9:35)

And this is again, before this whole thing started, before America and Israel decided to do this, the Strait of Hormuz was open and oil was moving through it. And so now. Now all of the objectives again, the objectives being complete and total or surrender by Iran, which is what we were told. Now it appears the only objective is can we get the Strait of Hormuz open so that oil can pass through? Because the entire world is freaking out about the accelerating oil prices and what it will do to the economy if we do not have the straight from, which appears to be a contingency and a thing that nobody in America, our American government, seems to.

Sam Stein (10:14)

No, that's absurd. I. I can't fathom that. Yeah, maybe in our government for sure. But there was that old Iranian principal on the nsc, I believe, who actually served for Trump, who came out was like, no, this was definitely talked about as a likely outcome if we attacked Iran. And the other thing, of course, now is that Iran knows it can. It can use this as a leverage point. Right. It wasn't clear if that. If that was possible, but they clearly can do it now.

Sarah Longwell (10:36)

Yeah. So, like, then what happened? So somebody warned them and they just decided, like, we don't care. I mean, every. Every piece of reporting we see about this, Trump appears completely off, caught off guard by the fact that they now have this leverage.

Sam Stein (10:49)

Did you. Did you read the big Wall Street Journal piece last night about all this?

Sarah Longwell (10:54)

I read, I read.

Sam Stein (10:55)

Okay, quick summarization of his. Trump is basically. He gets bored of it.

Sarah Longwell (10:59)

Yeah.

Sam Stein (10:59)

And he gets angry at it, and he doesn't know what to do about it, and he's mad at people. And the opening Android is when those two fighter pilots were shot down and he freaked out and he wanted to absolutely get them back right away. And the military was like, whoa, you got to figure out if this is, like, safe to do. Anyways, this graph really stood out. I'm going to read it for people who are listening and not Watching Trump demanded that the military go get them immediately. This is the fighter pilots. But the US hadn't been on the ground in Iran since the government overthrow that led to the hostage crisis. And they needed to figure out how to get into the treacherous Iranian territory and avoid Tehran's own military. Aids kept the President out of the room as they got minute by minute updates because they believed his impatience wouldn't be helpful, instead updating him at meaningful moments. A senior administration official said, what if it doesn't deny this, by the way, if I. What a damning, damning, embarrassing paragraph.

Sarah Longwell (11:54)

But this is my point that I was saying to earlier when I'm saying this is being conducted by Trump's id, like right now, the only way to do this is by people getting Trump away from the process. But because there's no way that actual people in our government thinks that him bleeding like this is a good idea and is useful for the negotiations. We don't even have regular diplomats. Like, it's his, it's his business buddy Witkoff and his son in law who by the way has extensive business in the region. In fact, both of them do. Anyway, I don't know what to say about that other than this, this is the thing. If Trump is doing it himself and he gets backed into a corner and he thinks he's about to be humiliated, that it blows up, no pun intended, his, his art of the deal thing, that's why he has to look for an offer. But if he gets cornered, this is when I think he could start bombing things for real.

Sam Stein (12:39)

Well, and this is what Barack Ravid, who's like the Axis reporter, he's, he's an ATAC reporter, he's about as plugged in with the administration as you can get, gets a lot of scoops from them. But he had a summary of the situation and it was pretty sobering. Basically he talked to Trump. We should talk about this in a second about these like periodic phone calls that Trump makes to a million journals. But you can see up here, Ravid is saying the second bullet point is what kind of stands out. The Iranians believe Trump's optimistic statements are a deception and a cover for a surprise American attack. And then the fourth one. The Iranians, on the other hand, are lowering expectations, even claim that there's no negotiation round with the US this week. Iranian officials suspect that the US might attack them before the end of the ceasefire on Tuesday night. I mean, we're not in a great diplomatic spot if you believe you're going to get attacked prior to the nfc. So. But this is that. That's a card Trump has done before. Right. I mean, this was, I believe how the first Iranian operation started was there was supposed to be some sort of talk in the air and then they just hit. And so I think they are not going to go down that road again. And that's why we have word that the Iranians are not going to show up in Pakistan.

Sarah Longwell (13:45)

Yeah. And this is where the longer this goes on, the more Trump's moves become transparent and the less opportunity he has to sort of do your Mad Men theory. Yeah, they're basically, they're ready to call

Sam Stein (13:57)

his bluff, which means he's got at some point, do it, do the thing,

Sarah Longwell (14:03)

or walk away with far less than what he had.

Sam Stein (14:07)

What a mess. All right, before we go, what do you make of these, like, little three to five minute phone calls that he keeps doing with journalists? It's so stupid at this point if you're a journalist getting the call. I mean, I understand why you take a call from the president, whatever, but you gotta tweet it out with some skepticism at this juncture. It's just ridiculous.

Sarah Longwell (14:24)

Yeah, I mean, honestly, I just think this is a function of Trump's narcissism. Right. Like, he wants to be seen as in charge and he likes people calling up. It allows him to continue to sow chaos and play people. Like I have thought this whole time, like, he's not trying to give us good information. We're not. He's not trying. He's not trying to.

Sam Stein (14:42)

What gave that away?

Sarah Longwell (14:43)

He's not trying to help us better understand this. So, like, it's great that they can get him on the phone. Not sure it's actually helping us get more information about.

Sam Stein (14:50)

I've been wondering what I would ask him if I got him on the phone. And I know I only like three or five minutes and it's like, you know, he's just going to lie to you about stuff. So, like, what do you say? So are you really going to bomb civilization to, like the Stone Ages?

Sarah Longwell (15:02)

I mean, I would ask him, why are you still the President? Can you please get out of here? You're obviously destroying the country.

Sam Stein (15:08)

Maybe I would ask him less of

Sarah Longwell (15:09)

question and more a statement for me.

Sam Stein (15:11)

Yeah, that's. Well, Sarah, let me talk. No, I think I would ask him now, I guess. Why did you. Why did your own advisors keep you out of a discussion?

Sarah Longwell (15:21)

He's just going to be like, that didn't happen. Fake news.

Sam Stein (15:23)

Yeah, that's true. He'll just be like fake news. Who are you? All right, well, Trump, if you're watching, come on the pod. Sarah, thank you for doing this. Appreciate it. You would take Trump on the pod,

Sarah Longwell (15:32)

get out of here to yell at him, not. Not to glean anything from it.

Sam Stein (15:37)

Well, it would be adversarial, but that's the point. All right, thank you for doing this. Thank you guys for watching the take. Appreciate it. Missed you guys. Great to be back in the feed, so subscribe to the Bulwark where you get conversations just like this. Take care.

Sarah Longwell (15:49)

Bye.

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James or Dan (No Such Thing As A Fish Podcast) (16:37)

Hi, there we are. James and Dan. Two thoughts of the hit UK podcast. No such thing as a fit.

Sam Stein (16:43)

Each week we get around the microphones

James or Dan (No Such Thing As A Fish Podcast) (16:45)

with our four favorite facts that we've

Sam Stein (16:46)

learned over the last seven days and

James or Dan (No Such Thing As A Fish Podcast) (16:48)

sit down to blow each other's minds. Yeah, here's a fact for you, Dan.

Sarah Longwell (16:51)

Yep.

James or Dan (No Such Thing As A Fish Podcast) (16:51)

In knot theory, a circle of rope without a knot is technically a knot, but it's called a knot knot.

Sam Stein (16:58)

Very good. I go on here as well. In 2019, a marathon runner with the words Jesus saves written on his bib

James or Dan (No Such Thing As A Fish Podcast) (17:04)

had a heart attack, but was revived by a man called Jesus. That is amazing. If you want to hear more facts like that, search for no such thing as a fish wherever you get your podcasts.