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- [00:02]
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Tim Mack
9.
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Ben Parker
Hi, everyone. Ben Parker from the Bulwark joined by Tim Mack, founder of the Counteroffensive from Kyiv. We're going to talk about the war in Ukraine, what's going on and what the hell American policy is towards Ukraine now. But first, Tim, thanks for joining me. Thanks for talking to me. Real quick. Just before we hit record, you were telling me about the, the piece of furniture behind you and why it's there. Could you just repeat that for everyone?
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Tim Mack
Yeah, so it's, it, I don't know how wide this angle goes, but I've got my dresser here and then my, my bed is right, right there and I've got two dressers leaned up against the windows because I'm, I'm on a higher floor here in Kyiv. And there have been a lot of explosions. And so the fear is that if you are not like right near a, an explosion, but it's close enough that the blast wave gets to your building, that'll blow the windows in and you get just absolutely cut up by shrapnel. So I've got these two dressers back to back leaned up against the window to little bit of leeway. It might just be purely psychological. But look, that's the reality of being here in Ukraine right now is that we've got, and I'm sure we'll discuss this dwindling US Aid for interceptors, for missiles and drones. And we've seen a real uptick in the amount of Russian attacks on civilian areas really far away from the front lines. And so the reality is that if you're living in an apartment in the city and you're on a higher floor, you need to be prepared for the possibility that there might be some explosion that blasts out your windows or worse.
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Ben Parker
Yeah, it seems like this is part of the Russian strategy. They've pretty much recognized that they're not going to make many gains on the front lines and that the best they can hope for is to try to demoralize the Ukrainian population by just hammering civilians and cities and civilian infrastructure and hospitals and, you know, the power network. And we've seen some really terrible attacks recently, and this is all becoming a little bit worse because recently, I believe for the first time, the Pentagon announced that they had canceled a shipment of American weapons to Ukraine. They didn't exactly explain why, but sort of hinted like, we want to keep these munitions for ourselves. Some of these munitions were those interceptors you were talking about, those missile interceptors that only the United States makes that Ukraine can use and has used to great effect, but only if they have the ammunition. Then just recently, late last night, President Trump announced that he was actually going to uncancel the shipment and send some of the interceptors, but not the full number. I'm sure you've been following the story very closely. What exactly happened and why.
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Tim Mack
I feel like if you in the United States can explain it to me here in Kyiv, it's going to be hard for me here in Kyiv to explain it to you there in the United States. I mean, look, the uncertainty around American policy towards Ukraine has been a huge source of hair pulling out of our scalps of folks in Ukraine. And it's been a real win for Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin. And what the Kremlin's long term strategy is that you alluded to, what their strategy is, is to create as much uncertainty as possible to prevent refugees from coming back, to prevent investment and economic development in Ukraine. Their hope and their goal long term may just to be to create enough of a threat of war and violence that no one will want to help Ukraine rebuild, that no one will want to help Ukraine succeed. And if Ukraine can't succeed, that's a win for Russia in the long term. So strategically, all of this, all of this, from the many attacks in Ukrainian cities to American confusion over what the policy is for Ukraine, it all plays into the Kremlin strategy. It all plays into what Vladimir Putin wants.
- [04:36]
Ben Parker
Yeah, and look, it's not a strategy for victory. It sounds like it's a strategy for sort of long term stalemate, which Putin has used plenty of times in the past. But on the American side, it seemed from the reporting like the decision to cancel the shipment was made either just by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or by a very small number of senior leaders in the Pentagon without consulting anyone, without consulting allies, that consulting the Ukrainians, without consulting even other parts of the administration like the State Department. And now it seems like the decision to un cancel the shipment and send at least part of it is just made by Donald Trump on a whim. So you've got whim counteracting Whim. So, yeah, I mean, I don't know how there could be certainty in that kind of situation where there is no policy process, there is no desired end goal, apparently. So can you, can you feel that when you're on the ground in Ukraine? Can you feel the difference in your daily life when you feel the United States sort of start to falter or express uncertainty or equivocate?
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Tim Mack
Absolutely. The fourth of July here was probably the worst series of attacks that I've seen on Kiev in at least a year, if not more. There were so many fires in the city that there was this thick smoke that was in the air and people were warning each other not to go outside unless absolutely necessary. And that's the result of too many drones for air defense to handle and too many missiles that weren't intercepted by the exact kinds of technology that we're talking about. It was no coincidence, I think, that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin had a conversation just hours before these attacks started on the 4th of July. And American uncertainty has real world, I mean, it's not an abstract strategic concept. Right. It has real world effects. And when we talk about how Donald Trump's foreign policy, when I talk about how Donald Trump's foreign policy makes the world less safe, I can say that with a lot of confidence because I see the effects of that every day. And you, you used a word which I think is generous to, to describe the current situation that the United States has kind of forced Ukraine into, which is stalemate. I think stalemate is, is, is like one of those rather abstract terms. People are dying on a daily basis. Ukraine bleeds slowly as a result of this stalemate. Right? It is a. There, there are continuing and dire consequences the longer this goes on. And so look, I mean, it's, it's a situation where I can acutely feel that the situation has gotten worse and they're increasing costs.
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Ben Parker
Gotten worse since when exactly?
- [07:21]
Tim Mack
Over the last few months, the, the, particularly since early June, we've seen it turn from a situation where, hey, once a month maybe we'll, we'll get, will get some serious attacks to it becoming a near nightly basis. Right. The statistics show that in the month of June alone, there were more attacks on major urban centers in Ukraine than would have occurred over months previous. So it's increased in magnitude dramatically. And you know what you feel here is this kind of chronic sense of, of a lack of safety at every moment in the day that, like right now, as we speak, there's no air raid on Ukraine. But I can't Be certain that five seconds from now there might not be an air raid. And so you're at this sort of, you're at this sense, you're always on the edge at heightened alertness about what might occur next because any subsequent moment could be dangerous for you. And that extends from daytime into evening and is especially acute in the evening. And as this ongoing feeling of never being able to exhale fully. You know, I'm sure as well as I do that that sleep deprivation has been used as a form of psychological torture against POWs. And sleep deprivation is now being used on, on the scale of millions and millions of people all across this country as they're getting bombed on a regular basis late at night. And it's not just the explosions they're hearing and experiencing, it's the anti aircraft fire, it's this drone of kamikaze UAVs that are flying around in the dark. This kind of, I couldn't really find fully give you the experience. I mean you, you'd have to just be sitting here. It's 2:00 in the morning, you've tried to sleep, but you're woken up in the middle of the night because of some explosions and you hear this eerie buzz in the background. And these are explosive drones flying around the city in points unknown, towards directions unknown, possibly towards you. And it's a terrifying and very unsettling phenomenon. And this is something that is happening on a regular basis for millions of people.
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Ben Parker
So I want to ask you two questions. One is, I remember the first year or two of the war in Ukraine. The outpouring of gratitude and affection for the United States among Ukrainians, not just in Ukraine, but also the Ukrainian diaspora around the world was enormous. Thank you. The United States, all, all, you know, our support made all the difference. The, you know, a huge amount. Big demonstrations in Washington and other cities by Ukrainians. President Zelensky never missed an opportunity when he went before Congress or video messages, whatever, just say, you know, that they were so grateful for all of our support. And I remember thinking that kind of had a, had a, had a, another edge to it, which is if we didn't live up to the expectations and this has happened before in history, that could create a lot of bitterness. So how are the Ukrainians feeling about the United States now?
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Tim Mack
I think there's a generational bitterness from which the United States may not recover. This is not a matter of, you know, funding for social services. Right. This is a matter of military aid that is going to keep your husband, your, your son Your wife, your partner, your child alive. All right? So when military aid stops or intelligence sharing is paused, or there's uncertainty that leads to serious consequences and death or terrible injury, people look for the reasoning behind that. And while the obvious direct actor here is Russia, you can't help but also think, if you're a Ukrainian, that Donald Trump's policy is enabling Russia to act with impunity. And I think it's not just Ukrainians. I think Europe, this might be a little bit outside the scope of our talk, but Europe, I think, on a generational level, has acted with revulsion and betrayal over Donald Trump's policy towards the world. And while. And I think part of it is because, you know, this message is the true extent of betrayal and bitterness in both Ukraine and in Europe has not been properly transmitted to Americans. A large part of that is because, you know, many mainstream news sources have been unable to maintain foreign bureaus in a lot of places, and we haven't been able to get this reporting back. You know, we're so. There are so many fires in the world in so many different places that we've been unable to kind of properly convey how much the world is turning on the United States. How. How much the, how much the world is. Is feeling betrayed and how much the. The world is.
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Ben Parker
Is.
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Tim Mack
Is feeling like the United States has totally lost its way. And this is not something that can be flipped, you know, in. In. In any short period of time. I think it's a generational feeling. Betrayal.
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Ben Parker
Yeah. I mean, how could it not be? You know, every Ukrainian is essentially living with a gun into their head, and the United States is sitting there going, we don't care if you live or die. Right. As you put it so well, we could help save these people's lives, these civilians lives against Russian attacks, and we choose maybe not to. Now, look, I'm not saying there aren't serious strategic considerations. There are a lot of hotspots in the world. We have a lot of interest to defend. We do have a limited amount of munitions. We should be making many more of them. But from the reporting of this particular shipment, all the top officers in charge of contingency planning said, no, this is fine. We can send these weapons and we will have enough still to deal with any contingency that might come up. And it was just Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump that changed their minds. So, I mean, I don't.
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Tim Mack
Well, that's obvious. I mean, it's obvious that they kind of made a. Made some excuse after the, after the Policy decision was made in order to try to cover up their, or justify their, their decisions.
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Ben Parker
Justify.
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Tim Mack
These were weapons that were already on route to Ukraine. My understanding is that there were, there was literally a plane that turned around from Poland with, with munitions on board. So, you know, so then to say actually we needed that stuff is, is a poor, is a poor excuse, I think. But all this surrounds sort of the uncertainty around, around what the American view is towards ending the war. A president who pledged to end the war on day one and thought he could muscle his way into a, into a peaceful resolution of the war is now due to his own policy uncertainty and his own kind of wishy washy position on this, on this war, enabling it to drag on for quite a deal, Quite, quite a great deal longer than he promised.
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Ben Parker
Yeah, and it shows really no end in sight. I think it would be possible for it to end because Russia is under so much pressure if the United States and its allies came up with a coherent policy among all of them or at least among a significant number of them to, to help the Ukrainians fight back. But that's clearly not going to happen with this administration. Now I want to shift a little bit and ask you about what politics are like in Kyiv and in Ukraine because of course, according to their constitution, they don't have elections during wartime. How would they. There are millions of people who have been internally displaced, who have left the country or who are living under occupation and therefore obviously can't vote in a free election. But what are the politics in Ukraine like? How are people feeling about the government, about Zelensky? What's shifted lately?
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Tim Mack
Yeah, I mean, the last figures that I saw was approval rating, approval ratings in the 60s, which is not bad compared to what American politicians and public figures have in general. You're right that there, there can't be elections during a period of martial law. And so those have been delayed. Although you already see some of the beginnings of groundwork for the next elections whenever they may be, which you can imagine within three or six months after any resolution to the war. But we haven't gotten to that point. So people are a little bit ahead of themselves. You know, one thing that we've talked about a lot, we did a story just this week on the counteroffensive profiling veterans who are going to get involved in politics. The military by far has the highest approval rating of any group in Ukrainian society. And so, but they make up a single digit number of members of parliament right now out of nearly 400 members of their legislature. So that is likely to change as veterans seize political power for in ways that will change politics inside Ukraine will change the way veterans rehabilitation works and social services are provided to veterans and the future of national security, politics and military technology in this country as veterans look to look to seize political power. I mean that's, that's something that's going to be a major shift in Ukrainian society because prior to this the military was not particularly one of the leading trusted organizations in the country and very few veterans were involved in politics.
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Ben Parker
Yeah. And now it's going to be a huge constituency because of the huge numbers of people who have either volunteered or been drafted to serve in the military. So it's going to be a very.
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Tim Mack
Important, not to mention their family members who have an inherent trust in that experience and everyone else who, you know, if I'm lying awake, as I described to you earlier, if I'm lying awake at 2 or 3 o' clock in the morning, I'm hearing machine gun fire in the distance and these are people roving around the city of Kiev in the back of pickup trucks with anti aircraft guns mounted in the beds of those pickup trucks firing at kamikaze drones as they're flying through the night to shoot them down. I were to shoot them down. If I were looking out my window at 3 o' clock in the morning, I would hear all sorts of explosions and see all these blasts. I'd see floodlights lighting up the sky as some of these soldiers are trying to track incoming drones flying across major routes in the city. You'd see anti missile interceptors firing. I mean, this is a near nightly event.
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Ben Parker
So the last question I want to ask you, I want to zoom out a little bit and not just ask Tim Mack, who has been in Ukraine since the war started and he's an expert on Ukraine and on the war. But Tim Mack JOURNALIST and War correspondent There have been a lot of wars recently actually started. I mean, I'm just thinking back off top of my head the last few years. There was a civil war in Myanmar, there was a war in Ethiopia between the central government and the Tigray region. There was the war in Sudan, another civil war after the fall of the dictator there, and even the Gaza war. And it seems like most of these, even to a big extent, the Gaza war now people have sort of forgotten about, moved on their temporary stories. And I want to ask you, is Ukraine different? Because Ukraine is in Europe and Europe still matters a lot to the United States, but maybe honestly not as much as it once did. Is Ukraine a different kind of issue that people here are going to pay more attention to, or do you really feel that people are just sick of hearing about it and don't care?
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Tim Mack
Well, I want to answer your question in a couple ways. We can answer it in terms of, like, you know what, how many people are paying attention? And then we can. We can answer it also in the sense of, is it just conceptually different? Is it structurally different? Should people be paying more attention to it? So the answer from a news story perspective is that Ukraine is a news story, like all news stories, and that over time, the more you hear about something, the shock value goes down and your attention to it diminishes. And there's no reason why the Ukraine war should be different in terms of kind of people's general attention span than any other phenomenon in news or in the world. But structurally, I think there's a real case for why people should pay attention to it in a different way. I think Ukraine is the real canary in the coal mine. I think in a lot of ways, it's leading us into what will become of the 21st century, who the adversaries are, what kinds of technologies will define modern combat. Europe right now is going to spend 800 billion euros in order to rearm again against the Russian threat. That wouldn't have happened if Russia hadn't made the fateful decision to invade Ukraine and try to take over sovereign country. Right now we're seeing all sorts of incredible developments in drone technology, electronic warfare that will help shape what modern combat will become and how things are getting cheaper, smaller, more attritable, more scalable in ways that will challenge American dominance in military technology. So all of those are reasons, beyond the injustice of the invasion itself, to pay attention to Ukraine, because what's happening in here is going to be a. It's going to foreshadow what will happen elsewhere in the world. And I'm sure you feel this too, Ben. I feel like that the world's is becoming much less safe. You kind of hinted at it in your listing of some of these conflicts that have occurred. I don't think the next five years is going to be less. Is going to be less filled with wars than the last five years. In fact, I'm feeling like structurally, the world is fracturing, is breaking apart, that the cost to being a bad actor, to being involved in terrorism or involved in threatening other countries, or involved in threatening or actually invading other countries, the costs of doing these things are declining over time. And as that happens, I think we're going to see for many years to come how what's happening in Ukraine will be echoed through the years in the future and in the conflicts of the future. We could really take a big bite out of bad action in the future by stopping what's happening here in Ukraine now, by defeating Russia and showing dictators around the world that there are huge, huge costs to making the very, very big mistake of trying to invade another country. Unfortunately, I think we've done just the opposite. I think Western lack of clarity of action, a lack of strategic vision has led dictators to think, okay, well, we'll probably get dinged if we invade another country in the short term, but people will lose focus, divisions will emerge among democratic coalitions, and over the long term, if we drag it out, we'll be able to make up our strategic aims. So the costs of invading, looting, killing are declining because we can just roll right through it in the long term. And if that's what we want, if we're a China looking at Taiwan and saying we want that, that's part of our destiny, suddenly you're less dissuaded if you're a Xi Jinping.
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Ben Parker
Yeah, I think that's very well said. Your publication is the Counter Offensive. You can find them on substack. There is absolutely no one who's doing the kind of reporting you guys are doing from the ground in Ukraine. Not just about the front lines in the battlefield, which you can get a lot of places, but about what it is like to live in a country that is torn by war and fighting for its survival. Thank you so much for joining me.
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Tim Mack
Thanks so much, Ben.