Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes

Episode: Trump’s Economic Numbers Don’t Add Up

Date: November 23, 2025
Host: Bill Kristol (A)
Guest: Katherine Rampell (B)

Episode Overview

In this incisive episode, Bill Kristol and Katherine Rampell dissect the real state of the U.S. economy under President Trump, interrogating widely-circulated claims about “good news” in inflation and employment, the consequences of an ongoing government data blackout, and the longer-term threats posed by efforts to politicize economic data and undermine the Federal Reserve. Rampell, who authors the Bulwark newsletter Receipts, brings a distinctive big-picture view that draws together economic trends, political risks, and the often-overlooked mechanics of how economic information is created, disseminated, and manipulated.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Data Blackout and the Politicization of Statistics

• Nature of the Data Blackout:

  • Due to a six-week government shutdown, critical economic reports (e.g., unemployment and inflation figures for October) were missed and will not be retroactively compiled.
  • More troubling is the systematic defunding and purging of statistical agencies and professionals under Trump, leading to canceled longstanding reports and manipulated figures.

  “There's a more widespread threat to the availability of government statistics... the Trump administration has been purging statisticians, defunding statistical agencies and otherwise censoring and manipulating lots of data.” —Katherine Rampell (01:36)

• Long-Term Impact:

  • Eliminating key data (e.g., cancellation of the annual hunger report, firing the poverty guidelines team) impairs public policy and business decisions, erases the visibility of vulnerable groups, and leaves the public in the dark about vital issues (e.g., climate, crime, health).

  “They help businesses decide where to open a new retail store... help workers figure out what's a reasonable raise... doctors figure out what's wrong with you... there’s regular infectious disease data... things that are just not being collected anymore.” —Katherine Rampell (03:25)

• Private Data Isn’t Enough:

  • While private sector data can supplement, public statistics have historically been the “gold standard” and help calibrate private data.
  • Gaps make it easier for “demagogues and authoritarians... to fill those voids with whatever numbers they would like.”

  “If you have a data vacuum... it makes it easier for demagogues and authoritarians if they so choose to fill those voids with whatever numbers they, they would like. And this administration has done that.” —Katherine Rampell (06:25)

2. Reality Check: How Is the Economy Actually Doing?

• Employment:

  • Unemployment ticked up slightly as of the last available data (September), with softer job growth and fewer openings, making it tougher for those seeking jobs, especially young entrants.

  “It is harder for recent college grads and young people in general... those people do have higher unemployment. I mean it's always higher for younger people, but it's, it's getting worse.” —Katherine Rampell (13:12)

• Inflation and Tariffs:

  • Inflation is rising somewhat, but not as dramatically as had been feared. Business uncertainty, largely due to the unpredictable application and contested future of tariffs, is leading to squeezed profit margins rather than rampant price hikes.
  • Many businesses are holding off on price increases due to hope that tariffs will be rescinded or refunded.

  “Many of them have said that because tariffs have started and stopped and been delayed and paused... they're maybe not at the phase where they really need to be passing along huge price increases to customers...” —Katherine Rampell (09:29)

• Affordability:

  • The administration’s inconsistent tactics—such as imposing then partially rolling back tariffs—do little to ease consumer pain, and steps to address affordability often tacitly acknowledge previous missteps.

  “That’s a great idea. I don’t know why you put the tariffs on in the first place, but sure, that would be welcome.” —Katherine Rampell (12:18)

3. A Two-Tiered Economy and Structural Risks

• K-Shaped Recovery:

  • The post-pandemic economy’s “K shape” means gains accrue to the upper tier, while working- and middle-class Americans face more hardship and are cutting back on spending.

  “There’s the K shaped economy... the top part of the K and the bottom... young people... do have higher unemployment.” —Katherine Rampell (13:02)

• Downside Risks:

  • In addition to further shutdowns, key uncertainties loom: possible Fed leadership changes, a potential AI bubble, more tariffs, and ongoing immigration clampdowns that could strain the labor market and drive up prices.

  “There's also the risk of another shutdown. The CR goes only through January 30th. It's not really clear what's changed between now and a couple of weeks ago when the government was still shut down.” —Katherine Rampell (16:30)

4. The Federal Reserve: Independence Under Threat

• Why Fed Independence Matters:

  • Less independent central banks bring worse inflation, as global and U.S. history demonstrates.

  “We have a lot of evidence that when central banks are less independent... you have much worse inflation outcomes.” —Katherine Rampell (19:55)

• Trump’s Approach:

  • As a “low interest rate guy” for both personal and short-term political reasons, Trump could push aggressively for rate cuts, risking long-term inflation.
  • Risks include: replacing the Fed Chair with a loyalist, pressuring for big immediate rate cuts, and—uniquely—potentially blocking regional Fed president appointments, a process usually apolitical.

  “If Trump puts in place a lackey as Fed chair... and puts in place a bunch of other, you know, hand picked people who are just going to do what he wants... that's really bad for... medium long term outcomes.” —Katherine Rampell (20:34) “...a lurking risk... Trump's people in Washington could veto any one of those [regional Fed bank] picks... that’s how he could cobble together enough people... to more quickly change their path than might otherwise be the case.” —Katherine Rampell (28:24)

• Real-World Precedent:

  • History lesson: Nixon-era Fed manipulation (Arthur Burns) led to inflation; similar patterns are worrisome.

  “Arthur Burns had...was responsive to Nixon...decided to be very dovish on interest rates in ‘70, Nixon to LBJ, both of them leaned on the Fed. And they boost the economy in ‘72. And we had a very bad...recession and inflation.” —Bill Kristol (22:27)

5. Tariffs, Immigration, and Housing: Unintended Inflators

• Economic Contradictions:

  • Trump’s simultaneous pursuit of tariffs and immigrant deportations worsens inflation, especially in housing and food, directly harming the same constituencies hit by inflation under Biden.

  “The obvious ways not to have inflation... not to impose tariffs and not to deport immigrants and reduce the labor supply... those are just unambiguously inflationary.” —Bill Kristol (33:06) “The Labor Department under Trump actually released this analysis saying that deporting lots of immigrants was going to threaten to raise food prices...” —Katherine Rampell (34:24)

6. Political Messaging, Vance, and Business Community Silence

• Vance’s Positioning:

  • VP J.D. Vance sounds a more cautious note than Trump, signaling awareness of persistent economic pain, possibly informed by criticisms from businesses, polling, or just “seeing the same public data everyone else does.”

  “I also wondered...if you’re there [White House], you can...have access to...the economists in every department...I wonder if he really kind of thinks it's going to get a little worse, the economy.” —Bill Kristol (36:00)

• Muted Business Community:

  • Business leaders and their associations are quieter publicly than under previous administrations, likely out of fear of political retribution, instead preferring private appeals for tariff exemptions or favorable treatment.

  “A lot of members of the business community have been eerily silent as these destructive things are happening in the economy...Nobody wants to put a target on their back...” —Katherine Rampell (39:06)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On private data filling the gap:

  “Government statistical agencies in the US have kind of been the gold standard... Even when it seems like, oh well, the private sector should be able to step in. And again, private sector serves a very valuable function but they can't do everything...” —Katherine Rampell (05:15)

• On the risks of politicized policy:

  “It is a lurking risk out there for another way that Trump could screw up monetary policy and wreak a lot of damage on the US Economy.” —Katherine Rampell (29:31)

• On the intersection of politics and economic sense:

  “He has a degree in economics from Wharton. But I think he should get his money back for that because he doesn't seem to understand how any of these things affect the economy.” —Katherine Rampell (33:40)

• On the business reaction:

  “They all think that they can get what they want achieved more effectively, I guess behind closed doors...They are probably, you know, members of the administration are probably getting that information.” —Katherine Rampell (39:27)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:36 – 06:20: Data Blackout & Statistical Manipulation
• 08:00 – 12:23: State of Jobs, Inflation, and Corporate Response to Tariffs
• 13:02 – 15:15: K-Shaped Economy and Challenges for Young Workers
• 15:15 – 18:08: Downside Economic Risks on the Horizon
• 19:08 – 22:47: Threats to Fed Independence and Historical Precedents
• 28:24 – 30:51: How the Fed Could Be Politicized Under Trump
• 31:36 – 35:53: Tariffs, Immigration, and Contradictions in Anti-Inflation Policy
• 36:00 – 39:27: Vance’s Cautious Messaging and the Silence of Big Business
• 43:19 – 44:19: Looking Ahead: Holiday Season as an Economic Litmus Test

Tone & Style

• The conversation is analytical yet conversational, with Kristol’s avuncular probing and Rampell’s sharp, specific answers.
• Both speakers are critical but avoid hyperbole, consistently returning to data and historical precedent.

Conclusion

This episode draws a sobering picture of America’s economic and informational vulnerabilities heading into 2026. The duo debunk rosy official numbers, highlight the civic danger of a data blackout, and warn against the corrosive effects of politicized central banking. If you want to understand why the economic headlines from the Trump administration often feel misaligned with reality—and what keeps economic experts up at night—this episode delivers the receipts.

For more insights, follow Katherine Rampell’s newsletter, “Receipts,” at The Bulwark.