Trump’s Insane New Tariffs on… Movies?

Summary

Bulwark Takes: Trump’s Insane New Tariffs on… Movies?
Release Date: May 5, 2025
Hosts: Andrew Egger, Sonny Bunch, and JVL

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Introduction: Trump’s Bold Move Against the Foreign Film Industry

In the May 5, 2025 episode of Bulwark Takes, host Andrew Egger delves into a controversial and bewildering policy proposal from former President Donald Trump. The episode, titled "Trump’s Insane New Tariffs on… Movies?", explores Trump's recent declaration of imposing a 100% tariff on all foreign-produced movies entering the United States. This drastic measure, Trump claims, is a response to what he perceives as a national security threat posed by the decline of the American film industry due to international competition.

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Analyzing the Proposal: Sonny Bunch’s Steel-Manning Approach

Sonny Bunch takes the lead in dissecting Trump's announcement, endeavoring to steel-man the former president's argument despite its apparent flaws.

Historical Context and Tax Incentives
Bunch explains that the migration of the film industry from Hollywood to other states and countries has largely been driven by tax incentives. “If you’ve ever wondered why, for instance, so many Walter Hill movies in the 1970s and 80s are shot in New Orleans, it’s because there were really good tax incentives in Louisiana” (01:27). This trend continued with states like Georgia becoming major production hubs due to similar incentives.

Questioning the Tariff Mechanism
Bunch critically questions the practicality of a 100% tariff on foreign movies. “They don’t even know what the actual tariffs are. Do you terrorizing, do you?” he asks (03:55). He illustrates the ambiguity surrounding the proposal, pondering whether the tariff would apply to the entire budget of a film, specific tax rebates, or perhaps even ticket sales.

Impact on the Film Industry
Bunch emphasizes the potential chaos such a policy could introduce. “Nobody understands what it means to impose a 100% tariff on something as complex as movie production,” he remarks (05:09). The uncertainty could deter productions from choosing foreign locations, disrupting the entire filmmaking process that often spans multiple countries.

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JVL’s Perspective: Tariffs on Services and Broader Economic Implications

JVL expands the discussion beyond the film industry, highlighting the broader implications of imposing tariffs on services—a move that could destabilize several other sectors within the American economy.

Tariffs on Services vs. Goods
JVL contrasts tariffs on services with those on goods, noting the complexities involved. “If the administration is levying tariffs on services, that creates a very bad thing for very large industries in America that have been pretty supportive of Donald Trump so far,” he explains (06:35). This could open the door to taxing burgeoning sectors like cloud computing and information technology, areas where the U.S. currently excels and maintains a trade surplus.

Potential for a Command Economy
He warns that such policies could signal a shift toward a command economy, where the government exerts heavy control over both goods and services. “If he decides he wants to do that with services too, yikes,” JVL cautions (07:28). This centralization of economic control aligns with Trump's larger-than-life persona and his penchant for exerting dominance over various industries.

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The Film Industry’s Response: Uncertainty and Practical Challenges

The hosts explore how the film industry might respond to Trump’s proposed tariffs, emphasizing the impracticality and confusion surrounding the policy.

Operational Uncertainties
Sonny Bunch articulates the concerns within Hollywood, stating, “Nobody knows what the actual tariffs are” and questioning the applicability of such a tariff on diverse aspects of filmmaking (05:09). The lack of clarity could lead to hesitancy among studios to commit to international productions, potentially stifling creativity and economic growth within the industry.

Defining a Foreign Movie
The episode highlights the difficulty in categorizing movies as foreign or domestic. For instance, a global franchise like "Mission Impossible" films in multiple countries, making it unclear what constitutes a foreign production. “Is it a tariff on the budget of the picture or on the ticket sales?” Sonny ponders (04:50).

Impact on Streaming Services
JVL introduces an example involving Netflix, questioning how tariffs would affect streaming platforms. “Do you charge Netflix an extra $12 million for the pickup cost?” he asks, illustrating the complexities of implementing such taxes on digital and international content distribution (05:09).

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The Broader Economic Picture: Beyond Movies

The discussion extends to other sectors adversely affected by potential tariffs on services, with a specific focus on biomedical research and technology.

Biomedical Research Under Threat
JVL draws parallels to biomedical research, noting that Trump’s administration is hindering American strengths in this field under the guise of economic protectionism. “The Trump administration is killing another thing that America is very, very good at, biomedical research,” he states (15:11). This trend underscores a broader strategy of undermining key industries through confusing and destructive policies.

The Risk of Economic Explosion
Andrew Egger reflects on Trump’s confidence in his economic strategies, despite their apparent flaws. “His self-confidence truly knows no bounds as far as all this stuff is concerned,” Egger observes (16:35). The uncertainty and potential mismanagement posed by such tariffs could lead to significant economic instability.

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Command Economy Concerns and Trump’s Motivations

The hosts discuss the implications of Trump's tariff proposal as part of a larger pattern of economic control and command economy tendencies.

Centralized Economic Control
Andrew Egger posits that Trump’s actions reflect a desire to centralize economic control, akin to a command economy. “He loves being the guy in the chair where everybody has to come to him as a supplicant,” Egger muses (15:11). This centralization attempts to reinstate nostalgic notions of American greatness but risks devolving into economic chaos.

National Security Rationale
Trump’s justification of tariffs as national security measures is scrutinized. “He can put a tariff on anything if he says it’s a national security threat,” Sonny Bunch notes (15:13). This broad and vague rationale provides Trump with a flexible tool to impose tariffs on virtually any industry, further cementing his control.

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Conclusion: The Uncertain Future of American Economic Policy

The episode concludes with a reflection on the precariousness introduced by Trump’s tariff proposal. The hosts agree that while the policy is widely perceived as unfeasible and illogical, its mere introduction creates significant uncertainty within key industries like film and technology.

Final Thoughts
Sonny Bunch summarizes the industry's stance, emphasizing that the proposal is viewed as "insane and random" and unlikely to be implemented (11:19). However, the uncertainty itself is enough to disrupt ongoing and future projects, potentially derailing the competitive edge of American industries on the global stage.

Looking Ahead
Andrew Egger and JVL express concern over the long-term implications of such policies, questioning whether Trump’s confidence in a command economy will lead to economic downfall or if his supporters will continue to back his protectionist measures.

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Bulwark Takes effectively captures the bewilderment and concern within various American industries in response to Trump's proposed tariffs on movies and potentially other services. The episode underscores the critical need for clear and coherent economic policies to maintain the competitive strengths of the United States in the global market.

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Notable Quotes:

• Andrew Egger (03:55): “They don’t even know what the actual tariffs are you terrorizing, do you?”

• Sonny Bunch (05:09): “Nobody understands what it means to impose a 100% tariff on something as complex as movie production.”

• JVL (07:28): “If he decides he wants to do that with services too, yikes.”

• Andrew Egger (15:11): “He can put a tariff on anything if he says it’s a national security threat.”

• Sonny Bunch (11:19): “This is an insane and random proposal and unlikely to be implemented.”

Transcript

[Andrew Egger]

Got an amazing business idea, but haven't locked in a domain name. Search Wix domains and claim yours before someone else snags it. Your ideal.com net u is out there. Search Wix domains and set your brand in motion. Hey, everybody, this is Andrew Egger with the Bulwark. Donald Trump's in his brainstorming era recently. He's just getting on truth social all hours of the day and night. Hot new ideas straight from the dome. Here's one he put up yesterday while we were all finishing up Sunday dinner. The movie industry in America is dying a very fast death. Other countries are offering all sorts of incentives to draw our filmmakers and studios away from the United States. Hollywood and many other areas within the USA are being devastated. This is a concerted effort by other nations and therefore a national security threat. It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda. Therefore, I am authorizing the Department of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative to immediately begin the process of instituting a 100% tariff on, on any and all movies coming into our country that are produced in foreign lands. We want movies made in America. Again, we had to come on and talk about this. I am joined by basically our two movie gurus, Sonny Bunch and jvl. Sonny, you wrote for this in morning shots today. This, this is a lot of words that, as far as we can tell, add up to literally no even, even imaginable policy. Right. Can you just like, walk us through the contours of, of what smarter minds than me imagine it could in theory mean?

[Sonny Bunch]

Sure. So let's. Let's steel, man. I'm going to steel man. Donald Trump's argument for him because I don't think he has any idea what he's actually talking about. Once upon a time, the movies in America were made largely in Los Angeles, in Hollywood, right. They good weather and that's where the talent was. And then as the years went along, production started moving out into the rest of the country, into locations where you could, where you had good space spaces, you had wide open vistas, or you had industrial plants that you wanted to use, whatever. But also because there were tax incentives. Right. So if you've ever wondered why, for instance, so many Walter Hill movies in the 1970s and 80s are shot in New Orleans, it's not because he loves New. I mean, I think he does like New Orleans, but it's not just because he loves New Orleans. It's because there were really good tax incentives in Louisiana. So other states did this. Michigan has done this most recently. Georgia did this, there's a huge production hub in Georgia, or there, there had been until very recently. That's where most of the Marvel stuff was shot, for instance. Right. If you've ever watched a Marvel movie and the end credits, there's a Georgia peach. Thanks to the state of Georgia for the generous tax credits. Well, Marvel has moved from Georgia. They moved from Georgia to London because London has now offered the best tax credits there. There are many. It's what it's in a. You're saving an enormous amount of money, tens of millions of dollars to shoot in London right now versus you what you had been saving in Georgia and elsewhere. And you can do this with these big budget movies because they're all basically shot in what they call the volume, the LED volume, or in warehouses with green screens. Like, you don't actually need to be in a place you can do it. You can do it more or less anywhere. So the theory here is that these are uncompetitive tax advantages that foreign nations are using to destroy the homegrown American film industry. Again, that, that is the argument. If that is the argument, then there are different, there are different things you can do to, you know, improve the, the, the standing here. You can offer your own tax credits. You can, you can make things, you can make it easier to get permits in Los Angeles. Whatever. Tariffs are not how you do it. Because, and this is what everyone I, everyone I have talked to today in the industry and kind of around the industry has said is, what is he, what, what are you tariffing? They don't even know what the actual tariffs are you terrorizing, do you?

[JVL]

Is it a good or a service?

[Sonny Bunch]

Well, that's, that's the trouble. Well, we'll get in, we'll get into this in a second. Because if it's, if, if the, if the administration is levying tariffs on services, that creates a very bad thing for very large industries in America that have been pretty supportive of Donald Trump so far. We'll get into that in one second. But you know, so like you say, he says 100% tariff on films that are shot overseas. What does that mean? Does that mean that 100% tariff on the budget of the picture? So a movie like Avengers, Doomsday, right, Shooting in England, right. Just started shooting in Great Britain right Now that movie costs $300 million, let's say, I don't know what the actual number is. Let's just say $300 million. Does that mean, is a 100% tariff on that film? Does that a 300 million dollar tax bill for that they're going to send to Disney and Marvel and say you got to pay this before you can show the movie to anyone, before you can sell ticket number one. I. I don't know. Nobody knows. Is it, is it a tariff on just the, the tax rebate? Right. So if they get $60 million back in tax money from Great Britain, however that breaks down. It does. Do, does the studio though then own $60 million? All right, who knows, Sonny?

[JVL]

Could it be a tariff on the ticket sales for just that movie? Well, to amc, your ticket for Avengers Doomsday costs twice what the tickets for everything else costs.

[Sonny Bunch]

So this is another possibility, right, that you do it on a ticket by ticket basis. You put this on the onus on the consumer. You just say to the consumer. And amc, it should be noted, AMC theaters, Regal Cinemas, wherever, Alamo Drafthouse, if you go to see a movie that we have designated as filmed in another country, you owe. There's a 100% surcharge on your. And then it gets into a question of like, okay, well, what does it actually mean? What does it mean to film in another country? Right, Like Mission the, Mission Impossible movies. Those film all over the world. But would we describe those as a foreign.

[JVL]

I think it's very straightforward, Sonny. It like with your car, where there is a detailed accounting for each part and the country of origin of each part. So that when you look at the. Your car, it says, you know, experts, 17% of parts from Mexico, 15% parts from South Korea. That's how it should be for shooting. It should be by number of frames of film, by percentage of the final cut. So the percentage of frames in the final cut where they were filmed. And for movies which have animation, computer animation in them, I think that should be billed by the country that the computer animators were sitting in while they built the computer animation scenes. Yeah, I mean, it's just obvious to me.

[Andrew Egger]

Well, we're going right into it. We're have a new American cinematic labeling act to, you know, get us through all this stuff. Can I, can I ask. Sorry. Look, Sonny, I know you're steel Manning this. There's another term for it, which I think you might call gilding the lily a little bit here. Right? I mean, like, this is, this is an insane tweet in a lot of ways, in basically every way. But I did want to say circle back around to that thing you guys were gesturing at just a minute ago and ask you, jbl, because this is kind of like a classic trump thing where it's like, what a silly man. What a silly thought. Wait a minute. There is actually like a really alarming potential new situation he could kind of just stumble into with this, which is opening the can of worms of tariffs on services. Right. As opposed to just goods moving from country to country.

[JVL]

So this is, I mean, okay, so one more thing about the movies. Movies are conceived of years in advance. And so this, this movie tariff thing is never going to happen. You know, Trump is only in office. Let's just pretend he's only in office for three and a half more years. You know, the movies that are going to shoot in three and a half years are still at the, you know, pitch stage right now. These things take forever. The concern and the reason people are freaking out is not because of, like, what he's going to do to the movie industry, but because this opens. Hold on. If we're going to tax services, which would be what movie distribution is really, it isn't a good, it isn't a. He's not putting a tariff on the DVDs that you buy at Target, you know, which is a physical thing you can hold, then America is a net exporter of services. We are a high tech information age economy. This is, I am sorry, I know there are people who just wish that their grandchildren could grow up working in factories screwing in little screws on iPhones that this is their dearest wish for, for their gen. Their progeny. But for most people, what you want to do is get into the information economy where you can make more money. And, and that's what America is good at. And so if all of a sudden, like Amazon web cloud computing is something that can be taxed and tariffed, that opens up an entire other sector of the economy for Trump to turn into a command economy, the way he has with the manufacture and sale of goods, which, where he is basically, as he said yesterday, he's with goods. He owns the department store and he is setting prices. And if he decides he wants to do that with services too. Yikes.

[Andrew Egger]

Yeah. And not just, and not just Trump, right? I mean, like, this is also an area where we're like you say we're a massive net exporter. This is a place where other countries who are looking for pain points in the, in the currently existing trade war, if they were to start reaching for services, that would really start to pile up as economic damage. Quick. Sorry I cut you off there, Sonny.

[Sonny Bunch]

Well, no, and like, I look very specifically at the world of movies, right? In the, in the world of movies, we are a Net exporter of filmed entertainment to the entire world. The MPA for 2023, the, the motion Picture association said that I believe it was $15.3 billion. There were zero major foreign territories that we had a trade deficit with. When it comes to movies. Like the, the whole, like, you know, the whole tariff thing that Trump is on about is because he doesn't understand what trade deficits are. He, he's, he's a, he's a deranged person who doesn't, who thinks that trade deficits mean a different thing than they actually mean. But even in his deranged world, we are a net expert. Like, there is no trade deficit with movies. It does not exist. It does not exist. But again, like, I, I'm just, I, I can't, I can't help but get hung up on the actual nuts and bolts of this thing because it's so bizarre. Like, for instance, you have something like Netflix, right? So Netflix brings a lot of foreign movies over. Let's just use Emilia Perez as one example. Emilia Perez is a movie that Netflix bought for $12 million. The French company that made it spent some other amount of money on the budget. It was filmed in France and Mexico. What do you put a tariff on for a Netflix movie like Amelia Perez? Do you charge Netflix an extra $12 million for the pickup cost? Do you charge for. Whatever the production budget was, was 10 million, 15 million, whatever that was. Do you put a surcharge on Netflix accounts? Because lots of Netflix content is made overseas. But also this only applies to films. So what if you call Emilia Perez a TV show? Is it then exempt from this? Like it's, it's, it's.

[JVL]

Is it a movie if it's streaming or is it only a movie if it's in a, in a theater?

[Sonny Bunch]

Great question, jbl. Nobody knows. Nobody knows because this is an insane, it's an insane random. And look, here's the other thing is I think, think most people in Hollywood right now, there's a story in Hollywood Reporter today that's like the Trump White House says something like, we're still working on ideas. And the sense I get from everybody in Hollywood is that they are expecting this to go nowhere because it's so bizarre and hard to implement. And like, again, just nobody understands what he means when he says 100% tariff. 100% tariff on what? What? I don't think this is a thing that will ever end up happening. What it does do, though, is it introduces uncertainty into the marketplace. There are movies that are starting to shoot Right now or are going to shoot in like, a month in London? Do those people. Do those companies then say, wait, hold on, are we going to shoot this here? If we're going to get a surprise $400 million tax bill in. In. In 18 months when this movie is about to do, like, what are we supposed to do? What are we. Nobody understands. Nobody understands what this means, what the charges are, what the potential charges are, what the potential coverage liability is. It's insane. It's an insane thing.

[JVL]

Sonny, you don't get it, man. It's all art of the deal, right? It's all. It's all art of the deal. Andrew, I got a question for you. So you've been writing for the last couple of weeks a lot about Trump's crown on, crown off routine, where he's like, I control everything. I'm the God emperor. And then, you know, I couldn't possibly bring that guy back from El Salvador. I mean, I don't even know what my lawyers tell me to do. Right. This is the first time we've seen a version of this with tariffs where he has, as Sonny said, he has tended to explain tariffs as trade deficits. But now in movies, movies are a place where we have a trade surplus. And he's also saying that we need tariffs there. Does that suggest that maybe he's not as stupid as we think and that the, like, the trade deficit talk is just an excuse to go to a command economy, socialism, if you will. And it's not because he's stupid, but that's just like a rationalization he uses. And because he wants to control everything in the economy, he is willing to then ignore the trade surplus and talk about how bad it is. You know, we need tariffs because they're not shooting everything on downstage is in Burbank anymore.

[Andrew Egger]

Yeah. And I don't even think it needs to be an either or question. Right. I mean, these are thoughts that flow in the same direction in the river of Trump's mind, right? Where on the one hand, I think that it is pretty well established. Throughout the course of his life, he has always said the same stuff about tariffs and about trade deficits and stuff long before he ever wanted to get his own grubby little hands on the economy. Right. Just as a matter of what he thinks would profit the U.S. it's. It's this protectionism and it's, you know, all this free money because of the bizarre, cockamamie way he thinks about how tariffs operate and what their effects are. But at the same time, it is very clear that he has, he has caught on to this secondary effect, which isn't even really a secondary effect for him anymore. It's just a both and thing. Right? I mean, he, he loves being the guy in the chair where everyone, all around, anybody the tariffs touch, they have to come to him as a supplicant. They have to, you know, get down and grovel, please, sir, I need a little exemption for my factory, sir. And that's, that's the thing he loves most in the world, right? Is that. And it also kind of dovetails with just overall nostalgia about sort of the way things used to be. Like, we're giving you back Hollywood, guys. We're going to. We're going to make it great again. We're going to make movies in America great again. It also dovetails with just the fact that he has caught on to. I mean, he's a big guy for like, get out of jail free cards or like cheat codes. One of these cheat codes that he has figured out is that he can put a tariff on anything if he says it's a national security threat. So that's right here in the tweet.

[JVL]

Oh, right. He says movies are national security threats.

[Andrew Egger]

Or in.

[Sonny Bunch]

Phil.

[Andrew Egger]

Yeah, it's a national security threat, man. You don't, you don't even know. It seems like the wrong kind of mental model to think of him like, balancing these things against each other in his mind, because it all just is one thing, you know, it's all flowing. He's just, he's out here vibing. He has this idea, it hits all his pleasure centers. He's like, we're going to do it. We're just going to do it. We're going to make American movies great again. We're going to put it in the thing that Donald Trump makes the decision about. It'll be good for everybody. And that's just kind of how he sees it. I don't know. That's what I think. What do you think?

[JVL]

I don't know. I mean, in a weird way, guys, one of the things that I think about here a lot is, I know it doesn't seem like they should be connected, but like, biomedical research. So the Trump administration is killing another thing that America is very, very good at, biomedical research. And this is, this is done under the auspices of DOGE and shutting down NIH and all that. That's a. Again, this is a. It's going after a place where America is strong and has a strong competitive advantage in addition to going after the Places where you like manufacturing and, you know, it's the same thing. They're trying to blow everything up, but this under the guise of pure nihilism, I think. And that's. That's where I just feel like, I don't know, like this guy is doing a Thelma and Louise thing, except it's got the entire country, like, shoved into the trunk of the car.

[Andrew Egger]

Yeah, man, I'm so excited to find out. I mean, the one thing that kind of pulls me in a slightly different direction than that analysis is just that I think the guy's own confidence in his own ability to be the guy who runs the centrally planned command economy, I mean, his self confidence truly knows no bounds as far as all this stuff is concerned. He's like, ah, you know, the hand of the market, that's fine, but, like, wait until you see the Trump economy. And it's going to. It's going to blow up. We're going to see returns like we've never seen. I'm going to get reelected in 2028 with 80% of the popular vote. You know, like, I think these are the kind of stories that he tells himself. And, you know, I guess the question is, like, if you are in the trunk of that car, how much does it actually matter whether the guy has a death wish or is like, no, trust me, this is going to be really great. We're going to go off the cliff and it's actually going to work out. Trust. I don't know. You guys have anything else you want to add on this before we take it home?

[JVL]

I have one question for Sonny.

[Sonny Bunch]

Yeah.

[JVL]

So you. You seem like you're all outraged on general principle, but if Trump were to figure out a tariff scheme to favor physical media and encourage the production of physical media in America again as opposed to streaming, you'd be into it, wouldn't you?

[Sonny Bunch]

Well, yeah, of course. We need the physical media here. We need to make it here. We can't just make it in Germany and Mexico and everywhere else. You know, we need the plants here.

[JVL]

Thousand percent tariff on streaming of movies and tax breaks for the sale of Blu Ray 4K DVDs. Look, all I'm saying is the Sonny Bunch program.

[Sonny Bunch]

All I'm saying is that if he instituted some sort of drone program to go after the overseas piracy hubs, I would have to look the other way for at least a little bit.

[Andrew Egger]

All right, we'll leave it there. You heard it here first, folks. Thanks, y'all, for watching.